Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Very Nazi-like. Apparently Hitler's plan after murdering his way through Europe was to implement public health measures aimed at protecting the majority of the population.

I'm not saying it's bad or good, I'm saying that it isn't sufficient to prevent 1) widespread infection, 2) widespread need for hospitalisation (because relative to unvacc'd, some proportion of vaccinated, infected people need hospitalisation), 3) overcrowding of hospitals. Therefore vaccination, as it stands, isn't sufficient to use as THE basis for public health decisions.

If, for example, NPHET recommended that "on Oct 22nd, nightclubs may open to full capacity but only for cert holders", this decision will lead to the same overcrowding of hospitals in winter (i.e. overcrowding beyond capacity).

The only effective measure at this point to get through winter is strict lockdowns. I don't want that, but that's the fact of the matter.

When Holohan announces a Level 5 lockdown for the rest of the year? Yes, I'll come back and apologise*.

*I won't have to...it's pure PTH2009 fantasy.

So, tomorrow is the big day.

What are we thinking is the outcome?

Well we probably won't get any leaks until late at night so Tuesday really before there's anything that you can't take with a pinch of salt.

My guess for what it's worth, outdoor stadiums allowed 100% capacity, pubs and restaurants get their normal hours back, covid cert use extended. I do think nightclubs will get the go ahead primarily due to the if not now then when scenario, they might need another week or so to get the process of checking certs etc beded down, much like the pubs and restaurants couldn't implement it with 2 or 3 days notice.

But really it's a guessing game, there's not even a concensus across the media as to what might happen

Agree generally just not convinced pubs will get an extension in opening times if they delay night club reopening but just a guess 😉

I guess a sense this will be NPHET's last throw of the dice, aren't they being disbanded? Seems to me there's certainly a cohort of very senior civil servants and ministers longing to see the back of them , my only concern would be having to depend on what's supposed to be governing actually taking charge , scary and alarming thought .

Serious question, if vaccination significantly reduce the spread then how do the two most vaccinated counties Waterford and Carlow) also have among the highest infection rates?

I know that the trials showed the vaccines reduced the spread but these trials were sped through so they only had data for several months and after 4-5-6 months it seems the ability of vaccines to reduce transmission severely reduces. Data from The early vaccinated countries and/or statelets (Israel, Gibraltar, Malta etc) shows this as they all had huge spikes 4-6 months after vaccinating the population. Perhaps the one of the early vaccinated states which has had the lowest spike is San Marino, who interestingly used Sputnik

Not trying to be a sh1t stirrer but up to recently enough I used to be reasonably on top of covid news/developments and I didnt see 'vaccinations significantly reduce spread'. What I saw is that the jury is very much still out on that and several papers and statements from health officials worldwide state that vaccinated people carry the same or near the same viral load as unvaccinated people. Other statements make some mental gymnastics around vaccinated people being infectious for a day or two less than unvaccinated people and what have you.

Covid number reductions in general can easily be explained seasonally and by the way of fact that vaccinated people do not have the same testing requirements as unvaccinated and that testing requirements in general have been relaxed siginifcantly. So far all I'm seeing is that vaccinations sginifacntly reduce severe symptoms. Which is great but its not the same thing obviously.

I am vaccinated since May just to make clear I'm not an 'anti-vaxxer' but since you have actually thread banned people for saying what I'm saying/asking above could you please link some info to 'vaccinations significantly reduce the spread'?

Maybe people didn't see what De Gascun said. It has been posted a couple of times already

He's saying a vaxxed individual who has covid carries the same viral load and CAN transmit to others included fully vaxxed. But as a vaxxed person your chances of catching it in the first place are lower. And at a population level this somewhat suppresses transmission and cases.

This is not binary, it does not eliminate it, or is 100% or complete. Like masks etc. But it does reduce it. If it didn't we'd be dealing with much much higher case numbers. A much higher proportion of cases every day are in the unvaxxed than the vaxxed.

We're lucky that once the safety and efficacy was established that this could be further researched using real world data that showed considerable drops in R rate among the vaccinated, enough to keep the current R rate at ~1 while R0 for delta is believed to be 8+.

But again, you're arguing against all the science and studies that have gone into this and keep digging into a narrow set of data to try and support an absurdly narrow viewpoint that is not supported by the data (except in anti-vaxxer world).