Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady · 15-10-2021 7:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025494#Comment_118025494

So Brexit is causing issues for the supply chain and agricultural production.

Igotadose · 15-10-2021 7:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025494#Comment_118025494

All part of the Tory plan to level everyone up into an information economy that's not blue-collar skill based anymore, amiright? Pretty sure that's what the business minister was on about at the conference. So, not so great a time to be an HGV driver when HMG is against such things.

Or an imported pig-butcher or whatever. At least the emergency visas are 6 months, and remember, it's all o.k. if the Tory lead in the polls over Labor is maintained. I mean, let's follow this to conclusion - suspend elections indefinitely.

ancapailldorcha · 15-10-2021 7:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025494#Comment_118025494

Why did only 27 drivers apply for visas in that case?

murphaph · 15-10-2021 7:44pm

I always chuckle at people who claim there are no shortages in their supermarket. The average UK supermarket carries tens of thousands of lines. Most people however buy the same few hundred every time they shop. They can't realistically know if there are shortages because the supermarkets quickly close gaps and spread neighbouring products out. They were doing this long before Brexit too as gaps look bad. If you can see gaps, then the shortages are really quite bad.

An Ciarraioch · 15-10-2021 7:51pm

Interesting to compare and contrast the CSO figures for August this year (published today), with those for the same month in 2019 (as a pre-pandemic control stat) - our exports to GB are down slightly, but not particularly noticeably so (€9.6 billion vs €9.2 billion), but those in the reverse direction have collapsed (€12.6 billion vs €7.2 billion), so where they had supplied 21% of our imports, that's down to 11% now. No one country filling that gap, but NI up significantly of course, along with China and Switzerland. Our exports to Germany, China and US have risen notably in the subsequent two years.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsaugust2021/

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsaugust2019/

Padraig178 · 15-10-2021 8:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025536#Comment_118025536

Dunno.

Maybe the wages haven't gone up enough to attract many of the Polish drivers back. According to the Irish Times reporting on the shortage of 3-4000 lorry drivers here ' many eastern European drivers have not returned from extended summer holidays, having found alternative work in Poland’s soaring economy. ' Perhaps the same thing is happening in the UK.Driver shortages are endemic across Europe.

www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/lorry-driver-shortage-an-imminent-national-emergency-in-ireland-1.4686883

Padraig178 · 15-10-2021 8:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025557#Comment_118025557

I think you'd soon notice if there were shortages of essential items. I asked one poster on here about the situation in the UK and he reported that in his area London there were hardly any. I mentioned a few days ago friends of mine in the North-West said they hadn't seen any. Another poster who lived in the UK also chimed in to say they hadn't any either.

Now you can either believe those people or produce alternative evidence suggesting they're outliers.

Either way there does not appear to be widespread shortages of food or fuel in the UK at the moment. Christmas may well tell a different story and then perhaps the Tories lead in the polls might drastically shorten.

Be patient...

Strazdas · 15-10-2021 8:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025659#Comment_118025659

The article you quote cites Brexit causing nothing but hassle and grief for Irish HGV drivers trying to traverse the UK and may well have caused Irish drivers to drop out of the industry - as ever, the thing is utterly toxic and poisonous for anyone trying to deal with it.

Padraig178 · 15-10-2021 8:33pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025720#Comment_118025720

You must have missed the whole host of reasons other than Brexit behind Ireland's shortages which preceeded that part.

Just to remind you - ' poor pay and career prospects, long hours on the road, unfavourable conditions, tight and stressful delivery windows, and high insurance premiums for young drivers, who see better work options elsewhere. ' I would have thought a nice meal and a good sleep on the ferry going down to France would be a break for these stressed-out drivers.

breezy1985 · 15-10-2021 8:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025494#Comment_118025494

But the British HGV driver won't benefit because they are gonna give visas and cabotage to EU drivers so essentially it will be like before Brexit

Strazdas · 15-10-2021 8:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025767#Comment_118025767

Can you point to a single thing in the article that portrays Brexit in a good light? I notice btw that the British press have abandoned trying to portray Brexit in a positive manner - their new narrative is "Yes, things are quite terrible in the UK at the moment but they are terrible everywhere else as well".

Padraig178 · 15-10-2021 8:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025804#Comment_118025804

Get real.

It's an article in the Brexit-loathing Irish Times about the Irish haulage industry and you expect something positive about Brexit ? If you read and watch a broad spectrum of media you'll find plenty of articles that are extremely positive about Brexit as well as totally opposed.

I keep coming back to the opinion polls too. If everything is as bad as you portray why do the Tories have a 13% lead and and 81-seat majority over Labour ? This might all change in the next few months but your fatalism is not currently shared by the people experiencing Brexit first hand.

wexfordman2 · 15-10-2021 8:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025792#Comment_118025792

Except British hgv drivers won't have the same rights to operate in the EU!!!

So EU hgv drivers will have more flexibility working in the uk, than UK drivers.

You couldn't make this up if you tried.

RobMc59 · 15-10-2021 8:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025720#Comment_118025720

There are plenty of Irish registered HGV wagons going to the ferry terminal daily here in Birkenhead

Seth Brundle · 15-10-2021 8:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025847#Comment_118025847

...and we've gone full circle yet again on the Brexit threads - sigh! So can you tell us one tangible thing that has improved the lot for the average British person as a direct result of Brexit?

Padraig178 · 15-10-2021 8:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025792#Comment_118025792

It's answering a short-term problem but masking longer term issues.

Here's a pretty good explainer in a respected trade magazine with a link to a logistic thinktank which concludes “EU drivers leaving the UK did not significantly contribute to the current shortage”

www.thegrocer.co.uk/supply-chain/the-real-causes-of-the-hgv-driver-shortage-and-why-we-cant-blame-it-all-on-brexit/659841.article

Padraig178 · 15-10-2021 9:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025902#Comment_118025902

It's a bit early to tell tbh. Brexit only happened at the start of this year and most of the time since then has been masked by Covid issues.Perhaps the Tories remain so popular because the lot of the average Joe hasn't been changed at all by Brexit.

If I'd had lived in the UK at the time of the referendum I would have Remained but I can see why the Leave vote won and I can see that Brexit has so far had very little impact on ordinary British people.That may change in time but it ain't happening yet.

I think it's important to forget the media hysteria and loathing of the Tories if you want to understand the Brits. Telling someone who voted for Brexit and then Tory for the first time in 2019 that they're too thick to understand the arguments and were taken in by Tory toffs/Cambridge Analytica/Leave-dominated media/message on a bus won't win them back.Calling them racist xenophobes who still pine for the Empire won't work either.Chortling over turkey shortages when it's only the middle of October will get you short shrift.Telling them their country is rubbish and they should be ashamed of their flag is just plain stupid.Yet the Labour party - leadership and members - are still doing some or all of this and still wondering why they can't land a glove on Boris.

You start by finding out why they have deserted Labour in their millions, consistently and for a long time before Brexit and then offer them a better alternative.And you stop sneering at them.

Re-entry to the EU is also the very last thing you should suggest as a remedy.

Akrasia · 15-10-2021 9:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118026036#Comment_118026036

Its too early to tell the exact outcome, but the trajectory is blatantly obvious

Every single thing the Brexiteers said would happen after Brexit has failed spectacularly to happen

5 years after the Brexit vote...

The UK has not got any meaningful trade deals

The UK has not taken control of their borders

The UK have not seen a rush of inward investment

The EU or Eurozone has not collapsed, or there isn't any movement for any other EU country to follow the UK out of Europe

Investment into the UK has not increased

There are not 'free ports' everywhere

There has been a new border down the Irish Sea

The UK fishing industry has not taken back it's fish

The UK farming sector are on their knees instead of finding new markets to expand into

There has not been a 'burning of red tape' in fact red tape manufacturing is one of the few booming industries in the UK since brexit

The EU did not cave to UK demands in the Brexit negotiations

The UK did not get to have the benefits of being both inside and outside the EU

Immigration into the UK from europe has fallen, but rather than benefitting the UK, it has resulted in huge labour shortages, a brain drain, mass divestment of financial services and high tech industry out of the UK

The GBP has fallen in value and has not recovered

Inflation is the highest in Europe

etc etc etc

And what benefits has brexit brought.....

uhhh

'The fastest vaccine rollout in Europe... for the first few months, except now they're way behind many EU countries and have had some of the worst Covid statistics of any developed country

Strazdas · 15-10-2021 9:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118026142#Comment_118026142

100% : if Brexit had real positives attached, we would be seeing at least SOME of them by now. Brexiteers would be able to say "Certainly, there are issues with HGV drivers and on pig farms etc but look at the big positives happening in other sectors". Instead, virtually the only 'positive' they've claimed this year is that drastic labour shortages have forced up wages in one or two places - a totally unnatural way of addressing low pay issues.

The whole thing is a disaster and everything promised by the Leave campaign has turned to dust. We're just waiting for the moment when Brexiteer England will be able to admit it.

Padraig178 · 15-10-2021 10:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118026142#Comment_118026142

Just three of a number of things you have wrong.

" Inflation is the highest in Europe " - The latest figures show the Eurozone inflation rate in August was 3.4%. The UK inflation rate that month was 3.2%.

" The UK have not seen a rush of inward investrment " - figures from June 2021 found the UK is the second most common destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) in Europe, just behind France and ahead of Germany.

" GDP has fallen in value and not recovered. " - the day after the referendum £1= €0.81c. Today £1= €0.84c. Against the Dollar it was $1.37 the day after the referendum and today $1.36.

Sam Russell · 15-10-2021 10:29pm

Before the Brexit vote, GBP was 75p =€1. Today it is 94.5p=€1. To take the day after the vote is disingenuous. In March 2020 it was nearly 95p = €1. IRP was translated to the euro at 78.7564p =€1 just for reference.

It is always good to cherry pick your statistics. The Tories always quote their great trade deals (roll overs of the EU deals) as so much better than the post Brexit situation without pointing out it is inferior to the EU deal they had before Brexit.

Padraig178 · 15-10-2021 10:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118026467#Comment_118026467

Sorry to be pedantic but today's rate really is 84p.

You can check it yourself and compare it to five years ago.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=GBP&view=5Y

I was responding to a poster who listed a number of things that had or hadn't happened since the Brexit vote so the day after the vote seemed a good place to start.

I'm old enough to remember both when a pound was worth nearly two bucks and when it almost reached parity.

Guess what - currencies fluctuate up and down.

ancapailldorcha · 15-10-2021 11:07pm

If you have a problem with a post, use the report function. Speculating about other users on thread isn't on.

Akrasia · 15-10-2021 11:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118026619#Comment_118026619

The day after the vote was the day that the GBP collapsed after the World currency markets were desperate to offload GBP knowing that brexit would be the mess it has turned out to be

And this was on top of the gbp declines before the referendum due to the uncertainty

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36611512.amp&ved=2ahUKEwiJgqKQuc3zAhUqQkEAHWeUA2UQFnoECBMQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1Opqmu0chplgRJQQ5MkGPB&ampcf=1

fash · 16-10-2021 2:30am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025910#Comment_118025910

A "short term" solution where "short term" turns out to be quite long of course - the "short term" extension of working hours of HGV drivers has already been extended twice and doesn't look likely to end any time soon.

16-10-2021 2:56am

I still think the U.K. has been given an enormous benefit of the doubt by the markets, largely because of London being a significant financial centre.

What’s worrying me is the British government has and continues to squander that and is taking it for granted that the markets will continue to give it that level of leeway and understanding.

My concern is that if there’s a big financial event, or a big economic mess, the goodwill may well be gone. I’m seeing a much more steady flow of very critical articles that are pointing out holes in not only Brexit, but the general British economic model too.

As we all know too well, economics is hugely dependent on confidence and trust. That’s being destroyed by the kind of stuff that is coming from the U.K. government under Johnson and it’s getting worse by the day.

I think that’s where the risk lies. It’s not in just the machinations of Brexit itself.

rock22 · 16-10-2021 8:37am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118025378#Comment_118025378

nandos.co.uk ?? I thought you were in Ireland?

Padraig178 · 16-10-2021 8:41am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118027049#Comment_118027049

The ' markets ' don't do goodwill and they don't give leeway and they care not a jot about Boris personally or his diplomatic spat over the NIP.

If the UK economy tanks they make money.If it booms they make money.

There are so many other factors involved other than just politics when a trader in New York, London or Honk Kong makes a move.

And you say things are getting worse by the day - how ?

The country is returning to work, nearly 90% of people have been double-vaxxed, businesses have been kept afloat by furloughs and grants, sports events are full and hospitality has been back to normal since the summer.

Padraig178 · 16-10-2021 8:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118027205#Comment_118027205

Poster asked about the supply of Nandos chicken in the UK.

Pick a UK postcode on their website and it shows you the nearest stores and from there you make an order online.

You don't have to be in the UK to do this and you don't have to go through with the order.

It's just a quick way of finding out availability and an answer to the question.

listermint · 16-10-2021 9:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118027237#Comment_118027237

For someone living in Ireland and saying they are Irish. You do appear to harp an extensive amount of Tory talking points. You have a very anti Irish Government attitude and when people have complained about Tory policy you have several times managed to make it about the wider UK population and some anti Brit agenda.

It's an unusual and might I say minority view point from an Irish perspective. Do you mind me asking where you source your news from ? I'm trying to understand where the Talking points and the objectively coloured view of Tory decision making comes from. It makes an intriguing case which I'm interested in .

Might I note this is a question not meant to be taken as a personal slight. It's all observational.

Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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