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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,271 ✭✭✭fash


    Reconsidering matters, would the best strategy for the EU to respond to UK reneging on the NIP be to hit outside the WA/TCA? Just bring a (slow moving) arbitration case regarding the breach of the NIP which is too boring and slow for the UK government to point to from an optics and let the continuing brexit shortages pile up (with no shortages in NI)?

    This responds to the point that "Tories need someone to blame for brexit shortages" - and EU can always escalate later. Basically don't buy in to the UK's timetable on this.

    Perhaps revoke UK bank access & maybe data adequacy for some added economic pain - stuff that the UK can't respond to - and be more rigorous in terms of customs checks - to further discourage truck drivers from traveling and e.g. ban British beef for BSE again - but these should be for "reasons" which have ostensibly nothing to do with the NIP dispute - so it is more difficult for the Tories to point to them and there are no clips of EU people saying "we are doing this because UK is reneging on NIP". Rob the Tories of their victim story and let brexit fail

    Post edited by fash on


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,017 ✭✭✭joeguevara


    Not sure what that would achieve. There is no mechanism for them to completely disregard the Northern Ireland Protocol. If consent is not given by the MLA, the Protocol will still continue for two years with the objective being that the UK and the EU would come up with an alternative proposal that would still comply with the Protocol. That has been agreed. Unless the UK just tell us to p155 off and unilaterally starts erecting a Berlinesque type wall, then their wont have reneged on the international agreement until the 2nd year.

    i don’t know how it will be resolved. It is interesting that most of the EU leaders refused to back France in relation to the Fisheries issue. The UK are refusing pretty much every application by French boats for entry into British waters. Macron had warned that he would cut the power off to the Channel Islands and the UK who rely on French imported electricity. Also there is a proposed blockade by truck drivers in Calais over the Christmas period.

    It is unnerving that all of the other EU leaders left Macron hang out to dry. It was not the collegiate behaviour we need to ensure no breach of the GFA.

    It had occurred to me that the huge binders Boris had in the Brexit negotiations which he claimed was the full technology build for electronic borders that were working in several unknown areas have just vanished. Must admit that Kudos should be given to EU negotiators who have to put up with listening to him, Lord Frost et al. I particularly liked the quote from Chris Patten, former Conservative Northern Ireland Minister who "The problem at heart is not the sausages you get from Sainsbury’s but the porkies that we all get, home and abroad, from Downing Street."

    It would be great if they were able to come up with an agreeable solution that complies with the GFA and placates the DUP. Peace is of paramount performance.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,271 ✭✭✭fash


    The "mechanism" for them to disregard the NIP is to ignore it.

    There can be no solution that satisfies the DUP: they want a hard border in Ireland. Don't forget they deliberately pushed for harder & harder brexits & rejected every solution for a soft border.

    There is no win-win solution here, no compromises that can work with the Tories - that is not what they are looking for. Their demands are intended to be unreasonable, unanswerable and ever expanding - they want to break the NIP & the SM. They are an enemy state with which we are in a cold war.

    With that in mind, if the Tories want drama & a hot trade war with the EU, why give it to them? Why not dedramatise the dispute by sending the central dispute in to arbitration?

    Let the Tories try to make a drama out of an arbitration case - while letting brexit shortages & failures mount in the UK. Let the electorate turn on them without really obvious EU statements of "we are imposing this because" in the background? Slowly & quietly suffocate them.

    If the fines imposed on the UK are heavy enough, why do we care if the dispute ends early - they will eventually have to pay the fines, even if the current government rejects them?



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,018 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    The other side of the argument says that the vast majority of the UK population could not care less what happens in or to Northern Ireland so suspend the TCA completely and let that impact GB hard and fast with massive queues in Kent as every lorry is inspected in Calais. The British public will fairly quickly demand that the NIP is implemented in full.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,055 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Being guarantors of the GFA gives the US courts and government no particular qualifications to answer questions about the requirements of EU law, which is the only matter that the ECJ has any jurisdiction in under the NI Protocol.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,867 ✭✭✭Christy42


    I think Farage's latest Cameo shows this off nicely. He helped the campaign to leave the EU and yet has little knowledge of the UK's only border with the EU. I am aware he was tricked into the statement but if he knew anything about the potential leave issues for Northern Ireland he would have instantly recognised the message and not said it. He campaigned heavily for Brexit without the slightest clue of the effect on Northern Ireland and nor did he care about it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    I do wonder lately if the UK are doing all this hardman talk and whatnot in a bid to keep the DUP onside until the next election, when they may need them to form a coalition again if Labour are biting at their heels by then. They aren't doing it for the love of the people in NI anyway. And they must be feeding some sort of info to the US via the diplomatic channels in order to keep them quiet



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,399 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    They are doing it to distract .Their only policy is "get Brexit done" and has been since "strong and stable"

    Once Brexit isn't an issue people might talk about something else like how useless they are.

    This whole ECJ thing came suspiciously soon after a report which states that Johnson's herd immunity strategy got people killed



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Why not? I dont understand why people are so hostile to Irish Americans... Why can they not be proud of/ identify with their roots?

    I dont see the same disdain for Italian Americans for example.

    America is a cultural melting pot, and basically all white people there have come from the old world just a few generations back.



  • Registered Users Posts: 148 ✭✭Padraig178


    If they're so useless why do they have an 80 seat majority in Parliament and consistently lead Labour in the opinion polls ?

    And Johnson's herd strategy was the scientific and medical advice offered to him by SAGE.

    It was the same advice followed by the Scottish and Welsh governments at the time.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Dominic Cummings has been tweeting again, he really shouldn't.

    You have to wonder why he does this, as he comes across like a complete berk. Is it a need to be liked/ massaging of ego?

    In this thread alone he has admitted that they had no intention of sticking to the WA (and protocol), that the PM didn't understand it, and that International rule of law doesn't matter - it's for infants apparently.

    Barnard Castle et all no shock in that context.

    He talks of the 'deep state' as some sort of justification for his actions, and says the Eurozone is fit to collapse - is it?

    Poor Cummings was the only smart guy there to save Britain, surrounded by idiots and an infantalised civil service.

    He says they had a 'totally fked' negotiating position, yet he spearheaded the leave campaign that brought the UK to that position, and was then the key 'mastermind' behind the Brexit process.

    Cummings also moans about the 'Remain elite', despite what was neatly pointed out in one of the comments....




  • Registered Users Posts: 24,399 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985



    You are right the report lambasted the government and scientists.

    As for the majority see the above "get Brexit done" nonsense. Johnson is certainly good at winning elections with his bus of lies or his catchy slogan but I can't really see any evidence that he is anything other than useless at actually governing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 148 ✭✭Padraig178


    That was one smart move by Boris in ditching Cummings.

    His bruised ego and Twitter rants are a joy to behold while his ex-boss enjoys a spot of watercolouring on his Marbella hols.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,052 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    It's clear now that many in Ireland are furious with England and English voters. This could lead to greater support for Sinn Fein and support for a united Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,644 ✭✭✭storker


    The UK Independent today has an excellent semi-satirical piece about Frost's posturing with regard to the withdrawal agreement. It argues that it's unfair that the problems Brexit is causing in Britain aren't being experienced in Northern Ireland, and he wants to right that...er...injustice.

    (Requires registration but not payment.)



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,055 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    That strategy wouldn't make a lot of sense. For one thing, current odds are that the DUP will have a lot less Westminster seats after the 2024 election than they had after the 2017 election so, even if the Tories are a bit short of a majority, there is less chance that the DUP will have enough seats to make the difference. But, more to the point, rather than antagonising the EU to keep the DUP onside on the off-chance that you might need them to form a majority in 2024, wouldn't it make much more sense to seek a good relationship with the EU so that Brexit goes more smoothly and with less damage to maximise yoru chances of winning a majority on your own? Keeping the DUP onside at the cost of a trade war with the EU, and the associated shortages, disruption, unemployment, etc, would likely cost you far more seats in GB than it would gain you allies in NI.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    You don't need to register, click 'I'll try later'



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,363 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I think this policy of using distraction to distract from failures is a failure.

    The trouble with distraction as a policy is that it will only work if some of your policies work, and enough work that you are only distracting from the only one that is not working.

    The Tories are distracting from the Covid report that was a Brexit success until it was a Brexit disaster. We have not heard much about Johnson's herd immunity for a while, but it is now being heralded as a significant cause of excess Covid deaths. Unfortunately for them, Covid, and its terrible handling, is not the only Brexit disaster - they are, like the dead bodies, piling up - shortage of HGV drivers, empty shelves, pigs being incinerated, milk being flushed away, fruit rotting in the fields, turkeys not coming home for Christmas, etc etc etc. And now BSE is raising it ugly head again.

    The only place not suffering from Brexit problems is NI, so it must be the NI Protocol we have to use as a distraction. Have to get rid of the ECJ oversight that no-one has mentioned yet - (why did we not think of that before?).

    [If only there were a few squirrels about - do they hibernate around now?]



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,215 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Mod: There's a whole forum for covid on this site. Please keep this thread focused on Brexit. Thanks.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,052 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    I suppose the point I'm making is the scale of anti English attitude that is on display for a few years now in Ireland and often openly by Irish politicians.

    Regularly Irish media and public mock and ridicule English politicians and their voters. This was unthinkable a few years ago.

    Where will this anger lead Irish people?

    It's another impact of the Brexit vote.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,018 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    The electorate is pretty dumb. They need to walk into the supermarket and not be able to buy a pint (or even 568ml) of milk and a loaf of bread to understand what a no-deal (suspended TCA) looks like.



  • Registered Users Posts: 33,640 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Put it simply They control the English press. Isn't it odd that the other nations that aren't maximum consumers of said papers have a different political makeup



  • Registered Users Posts: 148 ✭✭Padraig178


    The Tories control the English press ?

    Try telling that to readers of the Guardian, Daily Mirror, Financial Times, Independent and Daily Mail which all delight in shafting Boris at every available opportunity.



  • Registered Users Posts: 33,640 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    The only paper 'shafting' i.e negatively presenting Boris is the guardian. All other papers have bee fairly uncritical of him sans recently the financial times but mainly opinion pieces and the daily mail only very very recently exposing the handling of covid.

    It's disingenuous to say that Tory donors don't control the overall majority of the UK press.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,215 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    The Economist have annoying ran a few editorials recently lauding him for his recently reshuffle where, they allege, he prioritized talent over loyalty and then another about his commitment to "levelling up" based solely on his speech at the conference. It's usually a much better paper than this.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 33,640 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    It's definitive evident that without the backing of a widely controlled narrative across the UK press the conservatives would most definitely not be in the position they are currently due to their absolute incompetence and talentless control of various large scale issues over 5 years.

    Easy ride is to put it mildly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 148 ✭✭Padraig178



    The idea that the UK press is pro-Boris and pro-Brexit and this is why the Tories consistently lead Labour in the polls is as preposterous as it is untrue.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    What are those other reasons?-Because I can't think of many other reasons for events in NI/Ireland to be paramount in their thoughts.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,215 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    What are you basing this on? They've been pro-Remain for years. They were never pro-Brexit though they usually encourage votes for Tories come election time as they're pro-business, pro-capitalism and pro-free trade, the last being the reason why the publication was established in 1843.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭McGiver


    This UK/NI situation is becoming a serious issue for the EU.

    Johnsonist UK is clearly trying to destabilise the EU and its only EU allies will be Putinist regimes in Poland and Hungary trying to destabilise the EU from within. Anyone suggesting that UK has ANY allies in the EU is insane.

    The EU already has plenty of issues to deal with - lukewarm US, Russia disinformation and sabre-rattling, Turkish sabre-rattling, Chinese ascendancy, Afghanistan refugee wave coming, various populist/fascist tendencies in many states, post-Covid recovery, debt...there's plenty. And then on top there's this UK trying to

    To me it seems that the 's objective is simply destabilisation and/or deconstruction of the EU. So it becomes effectively Western Russia in that sense. Poland and Hungary will play useful idiots in this game. The Polish Constitutional Court ruling is like a nuke and direct assault of the EU, which the UK regime and Johnsonists propaganda outlets leverage further.

    Post edited by McGiver on


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