Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

UK is not a priority for the US. Even Boris realises that now.

This explains why trade deals take years to negotiate albeit WTO deals https://youtu.be/TNduNUvyq-8

Who polices the UK on the Irish sea border? If the UK essentially invoke A16 withpit actually stating it, who's to know?

We will when a load of illegal items suddenly start to appear in Ireland.

You honestly don't think the EU will be keeping an eye out

Firstly, the UK being broken is the last thing that anyone wants but it looks like it is inevitable. Luckily it is not a them v us scenario (I assume you mean them v EU scenario) so we are insulated by that.

From what I understand the UK is, perhaps not broken but well on the way. Sterling is the worst it has been since 1985. Agriculture is crumbling e.g The culling of pigs and the fact that farmers profits were made up of EU subsidies. It’s manufacturing industry is in pieces due to the fact that ‘just in time deliveries’ of materials are gone, fishing industry is as good as banjaxed, a large chunk of the financial sector is gone and there is an expected drain of finance professionals etc etc etc.

This is before any possible sanctions if breaches of international law occur. Blaming the EU is largely irrelevant now. Effects are there. Throw into the mix of evidence of Russian interference with politicians and it’s not really an attractive proposition to negotiate trade agreements at the expense of EU relations.

And for what. Taking back control and stopping immigration which is a lie. The worst vista on top of all that is reneging on international treaties.

Correct UK v EU (but frankly also Ireland - either the border is kept in the Irish sea - or Ireland has to deal with whatever toxic rubbish the UK decides to leave in to their country.

"Breaking" the UK - is that the UK's position (as per the analysis of Sydney Nash) is that the Brexiters/Tories fundamentally will not accept the NIP in any form whatsoever based on their "sovereignty" purity fanaticism.

That is fundamentally incompatible with the Irish sea border. This isn't a "hey let's meet in the middle" or a "win-win, we can all get what we want" thing. If this were the 19th century, one state would need to be forced to comply with gunboats.

In the current context with the (economic) tools open to the EU, the only way to resolve this is to put so much economic pain on the UK that the UK rejects Brexitism (because Brexiters themselves will not drop their fanaticism). That is a whole pile of pressure needed.

and you can be sure they will be shipping as much illicit produce, particularly ag related as they can - it must annoy them that China has just banned beef imports again, their #1 goal is to destroy the irish economy

Sure, but its the way they think - Brexit vote was nearly 5 and a half years ago, this has been going on for almost as long as WW2 at this stage, so what is the problem with kicking the can of hope down the road for another 12 months

Surely at worst is 7 years.

But as soon as that stuff appears it will be clear the UK are not doing their job and the hard border goes up or NI pushed for EU customs in NI ports although that would be very unlikely for the DUP

And the good Friday agreement was brokered in part by the USA and they seem very protective of it and it was a stupid move by the UK to even give the impression it was in danger.

I know this will just play into the victim complex the UK seem to have because the great idea of brexit has turned into a mess, but the EU should hold firm and say that because the UK signed up to the protocol in full knowledge of what it meant, they should jog on. And I do realise that won’t help but at some point we need to move on from brexit in some form.

The EU needs to stop being Mr Nice Guy as regards brexit and go on the offensive.

If I was in irish Gov \ European Govs I would go after UK Permanent Status on UN Security Council on basis that a country that does not respect agreements it has made is not an appropriate member.

If EU said that we will no longer be a member of an organisation where UK is in a Permanent Leadership position it would have to sit up and take notice. Without EU members UN would be more of an empty shell than it currently is.

UK should also be kicked out of NATO as it can no longer be trusted to respect this Treaty either.

The only way that UK can back down after todays speech and accept a compromise which will not include any change in ECJ role is for BJ to fire Frost.

Plenty of countries will be delighted to have trade deals with the UK. Just as plenty of countries continue to trade with China, Saudi etc. Money talks. What it will do is place the UK is a difficult position as any other country will want their advantages up front to ensure they don't lose out from any UK change of heart.