Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII Read OP For Mod Warnings

Hector Savage · 08-10-2021 01:01AM

So where do people this is going to progress over the winter ?

To me this winter is crucial, how this winter goes will show how the next 5/10/20 winters will go,

if we get through it with no restrictions and trust the vaccines and NOT use cases as a metric - rather hospitalizations - then I see this as the end, however if they start the yoyo of adding restrictions again as soon as cases rise, we are fucked, we will never get out of it since it is an endemic virus at this point.

Reason I mention it as I see Wales are introducing a vaccine pass from October 11 - the same vaccine pass that Ireland will dump on October 22 ?

Why are they introducing these passes at the so called "beginning of the end" ?

Also travel restrictions to the UK still seem fairly strict, I live in Spain and fully vac'd, seems I need to still go into quarantine and get multiple PCR tests if I go there ??? wtaf ??

Talk of Denmark and Norway re introducing restrictions as well this winter - hope it's BS... but again, we will be truly out of this if we get to next Spring as we are now ....

PTH2009 · 08-10-2021 01:07AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117991178#Comment_117991178

The media need to play there part and stop all the scaremongering

Personal Responsibility from the 22nd Oct as we simply can't go back into a lockdown. People's mental health is already down the toilet and Lockdown 4 would be cruel in that regard

charlie14 · 08-10-2021 01:51AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117990507#Comment_117990507

53% or 56% is not a great uptake percentage though.

I do not know why your husband must be vaccinated to stay in the US.Is it due to the policy of the company he works for, or is it mandated in general by the federal government

ceadaoin. · 08-10-2021 04:39AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117991222#Comment_117991222

We need it for immigration so yes, the government and he will need it for his job at some point also no doubt. I also need to be vaccinated but he shouldn't if he has already had covid, especially within such a recent time frame.

is_that_so · 08-10-2021 07:59AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117991178#Comment_117991178

Our only indications for the winter come from Nolan, who suggested COVID will be at a low level until December. Countries having plans doesn't mean they plan to use them just as our extension of regulations doesn't mean we will reimpose them.

08-10-2021 10:07AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117991424#Comment_117991424

But who would listen to a word out of that mans mouth.

Did he predict what would happen last christmas, oh that was Delta, wasnt it.

Where are we at with his modelling fir September now.

is_that_so · 08-10-2021 10:14AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117991860#Comment_117991860

Last Christmas was Alpha and yeah they've been very off for this period. In times where cases have been stable the models are OK plus they are what the government will use for decisions on reimposing restrictions.

astrofool · 08-10-2021 11:15AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117991285#Comment_117991285

I wonder if the "risk" of COVID is being brought into account, i.e. given that a relatively low % of people have been infected at all, those that were infected are more likely to have engaged in risky behaviour that caused them to be infected, thus getting them vaccinated reduces the risk to others of people who exhibit risky behaviours.

(understanding that a lot of people will have been infected through absolutely no fault of their own).

There is also the aspect of their country, their rules, get vaccinated or don't come over.

From a science perspective, vaccine then infected is going to generate a pretty strong immune response, infected then vaccine will also generate a similar level of immunity.

Just vaccines will be more than enough for most non-vulnerable people.

Nyero · 08-10-2021 11:38AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117991860#Comment_117991860

Very well put. An absolute disgrace that Nolan fella, reminds me of Austin Hughes the "economist" the time of the crash.

Got loads of airtime but when his predictions fell apart nobody called him out on it.

08-10-2021 11:44AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992269#Comment_117992269

I could never understand how he got so much airtime, he isnt a Public Health Expert,he is an academic in Maynooth.

The very best thing about covid becoming just another virus is the possibility that we should not have to see or listen to Nolan again.

08-10-2021 11:52AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992160#Comment_117992160

By risky behaviour I presume you mean young people meeting up with their pals, seriously,what did you expect them to do.

Everyone is going to get covid, hundreds of thousands of people got it and had no symptoms. Double vaccinated people are getting it and will pass it on, old and very obese people, tripled vaccinated, boostered up to their eyeballs will get it and die, life goes on.

If you think people will shun each other in the longterm, well, I have news for you, they wont, they will socialise, engage in what you call risky behaviour😄😀

You can tut tut all you like.

yourdeadwright · 08-10-2021 12:09PM

I'm getting married next May & praying this winter and Christmas goes smoothly but just have that feeling come the 1st of January we will be going back into a lockdown with restriction back in place,

Looks like we will end up only living our lives in the Summer & once winters hit back to lockdowns ,

As they say in game of throne "winter is coming "

is_that_so · 08-10-2021 12:28PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992425#Comment_117992425

Not what anyone is saying at all BTW, just a close eye on winter and plenty of talk about potential plans for it. We may get a lot of flu seeing as we hid from it last year but unless we see another alarming COVID VOC it should all begin to recede.

SupplyandDemandZone · 08-10-2021 12:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117991189#Comment_117991189

Honestly our hospitals and how they cope will determine if another lockdown happens. I think Xmas this year will be back to normal with people having parties and mixing and if we get through that and out the other side of January without a massive surge then Covid is in our rear view mirror for good. If with our frankly fantastic vaccination rate the hospitals struggle i don't want to even think about the consequences for peoples mental health if the government go with another lockdown.

08-10-2021 12:40PM

There was an item on Drivetime yesterday about nurses in Vincents speaking out about the conditions they are working in and staffing levels.

I would pay an awful lot more attention to what those in the hospitals are actually witnessing than what Philip Nolan and his modelling is saying, his models have no credibility now after what he portrayed in July.

Its not even mid October yet and nurses are stating wards are being opened and there is no one to staff them. Staff are being recruited from overseas but there is a huge problem with retention of staff, the staff are demoralised and burned out, I wonder what the sick leave levels are like.

I cant see us not going back into lockdown by December, if nurses are finding life very difficult now how will they cope when elderly vaccinated people get covid and this is going to happen unless elderly people stay at home. The only way we will survive the winter is if those vulnerable to covid avoid other people, this is the reality as we cant stop education, normal working and normal socialising for the rest of the population every winter.

charlie14 · 08-10-2021 12:42PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117991285#Comment_117991285

That is not a new US requirement just because of Covid. Since 1996 every immigrant entering the US must show proof that they have been vaccinated against vaccine-preventable diseases. Covid is now just added to the list that already includes Mumps, Measles, Polio, Rubella, Hepatitis B, Pertussis, Tetanus and Diphtheria Toxoids, and Haemophilus influenza type B.

Far as I know unlike here many companies in the US have the right to ask for proof of employees vaccination status.

08-10-2021 12:42PM

"plenty of talk about potential plans for it"

Asa matter of interest what exactly are the plans for winter, I havent seen any detail on whats planned.

is_that_so · 08-10-2021 12:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992596#Comment_117992596

It will be variations on the effective surge plan they used last winter. If needs be regulations will be waiting on the shelf and some restrictions could be reapplied. That's about the extent of it.

08-10-2021 12:56PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992631#Comment_117992631

Last winter we were locked down for six weeks In October and locked down again from before New Year for six months.

This year everything is supposed to be back to normal from october 22nd. The staff werent burn out last year, hospitals had never been quieter until the christmas period, we are going into winter now with burnt out staff, not enough of them and wards being opened so more work for staff already unable to cope.

We have hundreds of people getting late diagnoses of cancer because either they couldnt get a GP appointment or they sat at home afraid to seek medical help due to RTE reporting non stop on covid. We have thousands more needing expert mental help and its not there, there is literally nowhere to go if a family member develops depression.

"It will be variations" isnt exactly reassuring, its now almost mid October, flu season is coming and we know vaccinations dont prevent transmission of covid.

Winter is going to be a nighmare, it was chilling listening to what the intensive care nurse in Vincents had to say yesterday.

PTH2009 · 08-10-2021 01:00PM

Might as well just give up at this stage if the only option for hospital overcrowding is to shut down the country and only allow us out for essential reasons

Its not the person working retail who's fault it is that the health service is shite but it's people like that who will see the brunt of it.

08-10-2021 01:01PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992305#Comment_117992305

In the period cover by the projection below we had 120,000 cases and 250 deaths

The projection was based on a quicker reopening

Red Silurian · 08-10-2021 01:01PM

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet but in the rugby Connacht V Ulster has been moved to Landsdowne Road on October 23rd with no capacity restrictions. Think this will be the first such event in the state?

timmyntc · 08-10-2021 01:05PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992595#Comment_117992595

The thing is covid is not a vaccine-preventable disease. You are still potentially contagious and can be infected and die from covid, even if vaccinated.

If somehow the US had stamped out covid and then let in vaccinated individuals, it could start epidemics. Unlike other vaccinations which give near sterilizing immunity.

08-10-2021 01:07PM

If the numbers go sky high and the hospitals are overwhelmed and RTE go into overdrive then people will lock themselves away anyway.

We always had overwhelmed hospitals and people died of flu, RTE didnt announce flu deaths on the hour every hour, they werent being paid to do so, they got Five million from the Government last year so covid was their bread and butter.

If we accept there will be high numbers of covid deaths and RTE doesnt focus on this to the detriment of everything else then we will get through the winter.

We dont really have a choice now, we have vaccines and hopefully better treatments. The problem is vaccines dont stop transmission and for a certain cohort vaccines are useless,these people will get covid just like we all will but due to weakened immune systems covid will make some very sick so a hospital bed is required,the issue will be the length of time some of these people will spend in hospital, it could be months and then the waiting lists grow longer and longer.

Its all very depressing especially when you look at the billions we have spent since March 2020.

is_that_so · 08-10-2021 01:11PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992664#Comment_117992664

No evidence that will happen and we will generally be looking at managing both COVID and flu side by side. That's where the surge plan comes in and it will take a lot more pressure on hospitals for them to look at bringing back restrictions. As for those ICU nurses, they may be right about their own locality but have no clue about the national situation.

08-10-2021 01:13PM

Doesn't a 'normal' Winter involve the health system bursting at the seams with corridors full of people who can't get a bed in a ward?

In the UK the NHS are warning they could reach near capacity with a resurgence of the winter flu.

I can't see our media and politicians holding their nerve if that happens here. There will be a clamour for restrictions, followed by... restrictions.

Nyero · 08-10-2021 01:13PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992689#Comment_117992689

So basically he gave 5 predictions knowing one of them would be reasonably correct.

He got 4 wrong if we want to play that game.

08-10-2021 01:16PM

Their locality is in the heart of the most populated area of the country.

They are also a large teaching hospital and they take cases from all over the country.

The point is the winter plan last year is now outdated,it was based on very severe restrictions, for months people coouldnt go outside two kilometres of their home and then it was five kilometres. I know people who kived within eight kilometres of an empty beach and didnt go to it, thats how brainwashed people were.

If you have wards open in October and not enough staff to man them in one of the busiest hospitals in Dublin then we have a serious problem on our hands.

Nothing Philip Nolan has to say brings any comfort.

Red Silurian · 08-10-2021 01:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992706#Comment_117992706

This is true but if you are vaccinated you will be less symptomatic and less coughing and sweating means less chance for the virus to pass on from you so effectively vaccines do reduce transmission rates

is_that_so · 08-10-2021 01:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117992746#Comment_117992746

A normal hospital year includes people who are genuinely sick, those who have no drop down facilities to be moved to and unfortunately relatives effectively dumping people in hospital. A&E, of course, can also be full of people who are not very sick and really should be going to a GP or a primary clinic, of which we have very few. Add in winter respiratory cases and it all gets even more chaotic.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII Read OP For Mod Warnings