How hard is it to get the rolex you want

I understand my comment might smell of envy. And while I wouldnt call it envy, yes, I would like to be in a situation where I can drop 100k on a watch. Sadly I'm not or anywhere near. and most likely never will be.

But besides that those watches really wouldnt do it for me at all.

So what would be my 'grail watch' if I had 100k, unlimited funds basically? The answer is I dont know. Sadly I dont really have a target atm. Terrible position to be in, I know. Currently I'm looking for inspiration. On reddit r/watches and the likes.

So my ideal watch doesnt exist atm but I'm after falling in love with Nomos to some degree. I like clear lines and form follows function and not very busy dials.

If there was a 39mm hybrid between Tangente Neomatik update and Tangente Sport with a font closer to Club Neomatik (as in not as slim but no Roman numbers) on a plain sailcloth strap with a clasp... With a midnight blue or grey or maybe ruthenium dial.

That would be fairly close. I'm a man of simple tastes and limited funds.

P.S. I woke up early and couldnt sleep again and was just browsing... and thought I was fairly safe not stepping on any owners toes criticising those. Sorry if I offended any owners. Its all so subjective anyway.

You weren't. It was mostly me being conscious of my post coming across like that.

Yes, of course, having a spare 100k and having 100k to spare on a watch are not the same thing at all. Its just an academical debate. For me anyway.

In my head a 100k watch is generally one of three things:

1. New watch that actually retails at 100k - these are commonly awful looking footballer-style pieces;
2. New watch on the grey market - something like a Patek 5711, I wouldn't be able to justify the 300% grey premium;
3. Something vintagey - classic Daytona etc.

Luckily, I don't have a spare 100k floating about for watches but I think I'd struggle with option 3 the least.

I will add that to the list so.

I don't have a 100k watch yearning but I do quite like the AL&S in the selection above.

What I do like is the new VC Overseas Everest dualtime but at 30k that's still out of my reach even if it was available at retail.

Currently, I'm not a Rolex buyer and I think it's solely to be contrarian. I have nothing against the other than the price available to me. At retail? I'd hoover up any of their steel sports tbh.

Corinthians 13:11 says : "When I was a child, I spoke like a child, I thought like a child, I reasoned like a child. When I became a man, I gave up childish ways." my point being that when it come to high end collecting, things like legibility ,accuracy and reliability are seen as the childish nonsense of people who buy quartz. The fact people cannot even dream big amazes me. I will never have a 2mil supercar, but by god I would love one, and wont go on about how I cannot fit the shopping in the boot or its hard to get into.

The other bit is my own.

Been a long time since I dreamed your dreams CT so maybe thats best.

Hulk for €16k on TZ, that's €500 below the lowest price one in the EU on chrono, so if you got it for another €500-€600 or so off, it would be a fairly low risk purchase (provided the market doesn't collapse)

This Kermit for 12k on TZ good value thats just over 14k euro looks clean too...albeit with a ding on the case would need welding.

There’s no risk at rrp but at €20k for a pepsi or €36k for a steel Daytona there’s a good margin of risk .The hulk @unkel mentioned at €16k was easily making €17k a month or so ago .

These two below are from one of the cheapest dealers around only a few months ago.

1k on 17k is like a 6 percent “drop”.

The 16k is a private sale on TZ the above is a dealer (I think) who needs a margin.

Maybe there was wiggle room in the 17k vs the 16 being by firm etc.

C24 graph shows no tail off (ignoring prices and using it just as a trending tool).

I was often thinking the bubble is about to burst but I am convinced it will not “pop” at this point. Inflation may prevent it.

124060 again is very stable on c24. Once the initial panic when they were first released settled they have stayed solid since then. This time of year is usually slow in either case with a pick up from now till Xmas.

I can agree though that buying grey, especially for models on current production is poor sense. And I can’t see much space for upward price gain (if that’s your thing). At the same time I don’t see massive losses. A 5 percent move each way doesn’t count in my head. And I see no evidence of any price drop based on just them two asking prices.

I think prices will settle a little and stay on a gentle upward trajectory for most popular models.

The graph doesn’t show every watch or price. Just an indication of trend really is all I take from it.

are yous deliberately trying to be pedantic?

real world facts from my experience over the last month with Rolex.A sub at retail , a Wimbledon dial fluted bezel jubilee bracelet datejust at discount and a sea dweller at retail sitting in a window waiting to be bought.

How does that not show that stock is becoming more available ?If stock is starting to become more available the obvious grey market reaction will be that prices will level out .

I'll gladly take that sub at what you paid plus €500

You don't accept my offer? QED ;-)

I have looked at the last 4 hulk sales on TZ over the last 12 months. In order below from most recent to oldest.

14000

14250

13900

14350

Seems pretty stable from a private sale point of view.

No? What relevance?

Top one is the one at 14k Sterling that Unk referenced to be 16k (16350 to be exact based on the currency converter) is the one that you are argueing shows the market dropping.

Then I took the last 4 from that market place and showed it to be stable.

If prices are so stable why haven’t you bought Rolex? You’ve avoided Rolex cause You know Grey market is overpriced and will correct , why you’re now trying to argue it’s stable is beyond me .The proof is out there - there is more stock available and more stock means prices will level out .Believe it or don’t but it’s simple basic economics.

I haven’t said it will crash ,but if you spend enough time looking at prices it is obvious they are slowing.I’ve been looking for a hulk and there is now better prices available than there was last month.

We are almost arguing the same thing. All I am saying is there doesn’t seem to be any downward trend. Prices stable enough for the likes of the hulk. There are very few private sales in Ireland of the hulk. Mostly dealer ones you see.

That 16k hulk on TZ that you have used as evidence of prices on the way down as you seen one for 17k last month from a dealer in Ireland. I have shown that that 16k is typical of the stable asking price on tz. To quote yourself above….believe it or don’t but that is simple basic math. 4 watches in the last year on the same market at the same price.

I am not sure why me not buying Rolex is a factor here? I am fairly open that I general I don’t like their designs and sizes. All my watches are sub 10mm thick which is not something Rolex do and is where I start when considering a watch. It’s the first thing I check.

I also don’t like the gaudy recognisable nature of Rolex. Preference for more stealthy brands.

And I buy watches to wear them which means they need to be special. And Rolex are not special, at least horologically. Amazing brand and the market leader etc but if I am spending 16k on a watch I want precious metal and an array of watch finishing techniques front and back for my money personally. Not a plain uniform dial and a flat caseback. I just find that a little boring.

This is always an interesting debate and sometimes I think people deduce trends from fluctuation over small amounts of time. Its coming into Christmas season soon and that watch selling time, so there is a lull before. If you want to see market trends its not the super hot models I would judge they will be the last to fall...especially the hulk as its discontinued. Look at the watches people buy instead of them....the new cermit, the black sub, the batman/girl...those watches are going to be the first against the wall when the revolution comes. Personally I feel the hulk is safe as houses, as its one of the nicest Rolex sports watches and its properly discontinued. For the last 20 year of so, Rolex has generally gone up in value. That's through global recessions, global pandemics, Trump, threats of WW3, natural disasters, dot com crashes etc....quite stable over LONG periods of time. Its only the short hold flipper need worry really.

Of course there is the chicken littles out there. Bark and Jack called the crash about 18 months ago. Our own 836bet called it, Wibbs feels its around the corner. Thorpe called it when a few people were offered a few watches at the end of the first UK lockdown. And I suppose at some point if you call it ever week somebody is going to be right at some point.

You only know the value of a watch when you go to sell it. Usually I put in a buy request for the watch I want to watchfinder and see what they are giving on them. You will always find it considerably less than private sale values. I would say 13-14k euro on a hulk. Forget Chrono24 thats a load of bluster, bs and massively inflated prices. Dealers usually try and have at least 15-20% margin as is only right to run a business, so that means 3k on a 20k watch.

My own gut feeling is a period of relative stagnation, but the hulk will be a 20k watch and stay there.

Wibbs the answer is yes, a big part of the hobby now is financial, because its a nice lubricant for the man maths machine.