How hard is it to get the rolex you want

893bet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117935829#Comment_117935829

No? What relevance?

Top one is the one at 14k Sterling that Unk referenced to be 16k (16350 to be exact based on the currency converter) is the one that you are argueing shows the market dropping.

Then I took the last 4 from that market place and showed it to be stable.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117935590#Comment_117935590

Apples and oranges. A hulk from a dealer will sell for about a grand more than one from a private sale. So last months one would have sold for €16k privately.

scwazrh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117935857#Comment_117935857

If prices are so stable why haven’t you bought Rolex? You’ve avoided Rolex cause You know Grey market is overpriced and will correct , why you’re now trying to argue it’s stable is beyond me .The proof is out there - there is more stock available and more stock means prices will level out .Believe it or don’t but it’s simple basic economics.

I haven’t said it will crash ,but if you spend enough time looking at prices it is obvious they are slowing.I’ve been looking for a hulk and there is now better prices available than there was last month.

scwazrh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117935871#Comment_117935871

Would have , could have , should have - all irrelevant.I’m basing my views on prices I see as someone in the market to buy.

893bet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117936041#Comment_117936041

We are almost arguing the same thing. All I am saying is there doesn’t seem to be any downward trend. Prices stable enough for the likes of the hulk. There are very few private sales in Ireland of the hulk. Mostly dealer ones you see.

That 16k hulk on TZ that you have used as evidence of prices on the way down as you seen one for 17k last month from a dealer in Ireland. I have shown that that 16k is typical of the stable asking price on tz. To quote yourself above….believe it or don’t but that is simple basic math. 4 watches in the last year on the same market at the same price.

I am not sure why me not buying Rolex is a factor here? I am fairly open that I general I don’t like their designs and sizes. All my watches are sub 10mm thick which is not something Rolex do and is where I start when considering a watch. It’s the first thing I check.

I also don’t like the gaudy recognisable nature of Rolex. Preference for more stealthy brands.

And I buy watches to wear them which means they need to be special. And Rolex are not special, at least horologically. Amazing brand and the market leader etc but if I am spending 16k on a watch I want precious metal and an array of watch finishing techniques front and back for my money personally. Not a plain uniform dial and a flat caseback. I just find that a little boring.

Wibbs

This isn't a criticism. I've zero skin in the game in this end of things and it's more a general observation: While watch values have always been discussed to some degree, particularly and for more obvious reasons in the vintage end of the hobby where the very nature of an actually finite supply and increasing interest since the turn of the century has driven the market, discussion in the brand new watch market of investments, flipping, value trends and graphs like we were talking about stocks or currency is very much a recent thing. And it comes across as much more about the market than the watches themselves, if you know what I mean? Or is that just me? It also adds to my strong suspicion that this is a current trend that is vulnerable to going off trend when the perception of currency substitute shifts.

Now don't get me wrong I get the idea of values and certainly don't like the idea of throwing money away 😁 and in my vintage neck of the woods I'm certainly happier that I bought much of my collection before things went a bit nuts in that market and I could build a collection like mine for a lot less and I haven't lost money, but even if the values tanked or stayed the same I'd still have the watches and the interest in them.

Fitz II

This is always an interesting debate and sometimes I think people deduce trends from fluctuation over small amounts of time. Its coming into Christmas season soon and that watch selling time, so there is a lull before. If you want to see market trends its not the super hot models I would judge they will be the last to fall...especially the hulk as its discontinued. Look at the watches people buy instead of them....the new cermit, the black sub, the batman/girl...those watches are going to be the first against the wall when the revolution comes. Personally I feel the hulk is safe as houses, as its one of the nicest Rolex sports watches and its properly discontinued. For the last 20 year of so, Rolex has generally gone up in value. That's through global recessions, global pandemics, Trump, threats of WW3, natural disasters, dot com crashes etc....quite stable over LONG periods of time. Its only the short hold flipper need worry really.

Of course there is the chicken littles out there. Bark and Jack called the crash about 18 months ago. Our own 836bet called it, Wibbs feels its around the corner. Thorpe called it when a few people were offered a few watches at the end of the first UK lockdown. And I suppose at some point if you call it ever week somebody is going to be right at some point.

You only know the value of a watch when you go to sell it. Usually I put in a buy request for the watch I want to watchfinder and see what they are giving on them. You will always find it considerably less than private sale values. I would say 13-14k euro on a hulk. Forget Chrono24 thats a load of bluster, bs and massively inflated prices. Dealers usually try and have at least 15-20% margin as is only right to run a business, so that means 3k on a 20k watch.

My own gut feeling is a period of relative stagnation, but the hulk will be a 20k watch and stay there.

Wibbs the answer is yes, a big part of the hobby now is financial, because its a nice lubricant for the man maths machine.

893bet

When WF had a sale and have 2-3k off blnrs I declared the end was nigh ( it’s in this thread 10 pages back and two years ago). Wrong.

During lockdown ADs were openly selling omega online to survive at 20 percent discount and I said the market was going to dive on second hand prices following that. Wrong.

Watch market is very strong and growing. Us WIS are a small percentage. The other 95 percent want Rolex and Omega etc and will stay wanting them. While I am not staying rush to buy, prices are gonna jump 20 percent again this year. But if you are expecting a reduction of 20 percent then forget it. Best out luck for buyers is a small drop and a stagnation while inflation catches up to the rapid price rises that have been seen.

Wibbs

Us WIS are a small percentage.

That would be more my concern for the market in general. Enthusiasts tend to stay enthusiastic, the mainstream is much more open to a change of trend. Now these are longterm periods but 20 years ago the other 95 percent wanted TAG Heuer. IWC were mad popular soon after(if you look at the Timezone forums from the early 00's you'd see "IWC or Rolex, what should I buy" and IWC was ahead for most respondents. And Rolex have not generally gone up in value over the last 20 years. To be precise; Vintage Rolex have climbed alright(I'd agree the discontinued Hulk would be a safer bet because of that), but there's a rising tide there with a few brands, but certainly not new currently available Rolex models and not currently available models grey marketed out at premiums with flippers and speculators abounding. That's in the last five years, not twenty. This forum is only in existence for ten years and go back to the early days. It's a fair few pages in before Rolex is even mentioned and when it is it's about buying new Subs at discount off RRP and links to where you can. Nothing like today. The through pandemics, trump, corona and global crashes etc is not surprising at all. Indeed I'd be far more surprised if agreed upon non cash wealth stores would drop because of those external factors.

But the "always rising values" stuff is very of the moment and pushed by both dealers and the heavily invested. The P&P guys up the North(and they wouldn't be the only ones as a lot of their copy is copy pasted from elsewhere) say on their website that Rolex have never lost value since the 70's, which is total and utter bull. There's a reason why pre 90's non auto vintage Daytonas are rare enough, they couldn't give them away and they were reguarly and heavily discounted and secondhand steel Rolex were always cheaper than brand new. Until crowds like Hodinkee started promoting two tone as The Next Big Thing(because dealers are always looking for the next big thing), two tone Rollies were deeply unfashionable and less valuable and that's in the last 18 months.

I noticed this Enthusiast/Mainstream diff in of all things vintage film posters. I was never a collector as such, I just bought a few down the years, but I figured more knowledge over what I had was always a good thing. They were a big thing 15 years ago and had been really climbing since the 90's, then they went from a small bunch of nerds to the mainstream and prices went nuts. Then after around five years of rapid climb the heat went out of them. As an example one of the big ticket ones are anything to do with Star Wars, the first flics anyway. When I was a kid I got a present of a Star Wars Poster(first UK edition no Oscars listed) from a mate's dad who worked in the Savoy IIRC. Anyway it kinda went into a drawer because to me it wasn't a "real poster" and I bought an "official" one in Easons. I kid thee not... 😁In the late 90's that was about 500 quid, at the peak it was more like 2000 quid, 2500 to the desperate. 😁 Now? Around 800. Now an original King Kong poster is still going to be worth a metric shít tonne of cash(though lower than at the peak), but that's the equivalent of a 1940's Patek in steel. Not relevant to 99% of the market

Another aspect to the other 95% is that of that percentage the vast majority of luxury watch buyers are generally one and done guys. They buy the "Good Watch" of the day and keep it. That's in a normal market anyway and that's what the Swiss industry relies upon(over half of Longines profits in Asia come from women's watches which aren't even on our radar). This current market has way more of the market speculators and investors to it. 18 months or so ago I mused that next up would be the entry of finance into the market and that's in play now. Small beans at the moment, but if that becomes more a thing, that's another concern.

TL:DR? (too late...) Do I think the market will crash? No. Do I see stagnation? Yes(the vintage market has already stagnated in a big way and behind closed doors discounting is happening). Do I see vintage or discontinued popular models take a dive? No. Less upward movement, but still fairly solid. Do I see the feeding frenzy for well over RRP for new steel Rolex driven by speculators and dealers lose steam? Yep. Now prices will stay firm at first because the market is too invested and both dealers and owners won't want to lose out, but it wouldn't take much for that to start to slip too. EG stressed "stockholders" in need of liquidity yesterday.

scwazrh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117933862#Comment_117933862

I’m quoting myself above as it appears we all seem to effectively agree on the general sentiment that was in that post.

Despite @893bet & @unkel rebuke for whatever reason it is safe to say that anyone paying attention to the Rolex market is expecting stagnation or levelling out or the heat coming out of the market , whichever way we want to phrase it but the result is the same , grey market values will level out soon.

scwazrh

@Fitz II Personally I feel the hulk is safe as houses,

I do love that saying . 10 years ago I had a business built on that theory , turned out houses weren’t all that safe :)

Fitz II

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117938372#Comment_117938372

Bet you wish you still had those houses today on trackers!

wotzgoingon

This thread makes me sad. I had a nice collection of rolex's and the fúcking CAB seized them on me. Just walked into house and took them scumbags.

893bet

i have mine hidden up my arse when they raided my house. Lucky I was.

banie01

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117938751#Comment_117938751

And if you had legitimate ownership of them, you get them back.

Civil forfeiture is only complete if you can't prove that you legitimately own items or cash.

If you had a nice collection of Rolex surely you also had to funds to pay a solicitor? Even if you didn't, the watches were inherited and you are illiquid, there is legal aid.

You need to flesh out your story a little bit more before anyone can offer more of an opinion really.

Noone let's CAB take their property without seeking to establish legitimate ownership.

Fitz II

THink he is messing Banie....

banie01

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117938847#Comment_117938847

Maybe. Just seen a similar post in that vein from over on crypto forum 😉

Advice stands tho, and sure if they were seized? Gives us all time to register with Wilson's 🤔

scwazrh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117938632#Comment_117938632

Not really , the error in my plan was buying dog boxes in the arse end of nowhere.Better off rid .Young man mistakes and ignoring the importance of location.

wotzgoingon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117939319#Comment_117939319

But that's the thing back when you bought those houses in the back end of no where you would have easily sold them for a profit(obviously before the crash). The market was crazy back then.

The market has changed since(pointing out the obvious here) and location is key now. If you had a house in Dublin or Galway at the minute you would make a profit without selling just renting them out and in the future prices will most likely rise and sell for a profit.

Fitz II

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117939319#Comment_117939319

Manys a Harrods Tudor black bay owner knows your pain....

Time

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117938354#Comment_117938354

They will eventually, but i wouldn't expect that to be anytime soon. There are lists/wait periods for absolutely everything now, even 31mm Datejusts. Walk past an AD and they have virtually no stock on display, and the really in demand stuff is gone out the day it comes in.

scwazrh

So which would be safer purchase ? A Hulk or Pepsi ?

My head tells me to stay away from either due to the reasons discussed above but Im having a itch to buy one or the other

banie01

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117958171#Comment_117958171

For me, it'd be the Hulk but solely based on the bracelet. If the Pepsi was on an Oyster? That's what I'd get and not picking it as 1st choice given my penchant for a GMT, is a choice that surprised me tbh!

scwazrh

its the jubilee that I like most about the Pepsi.

does the Hulk wear different to a sub date ?colour obviously the difference but I’d be concerned they would wear too similar .@Fitz II Is probably the man to answer that

Cyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117958206#Comment_117958206

its just the colour, i personally wouldnt have both (my pref is the hulk also)

Fitz II

Hulk for me, nicer colour. The pepsi bezel colours are a bit weird, its also very dressy on the Jubilee (although you can have it on a PCL oyster now). Hulk is more classic and the bracelet is better with the quick adjust, also Hulk is actually discontinued so the price will be more stable as the market has as many hulks now as it ever will.

Neither are a bad choice, but I just didnt gel with the pepsi

unkel

I'd go hulk too. A more manly watch in the maxi case. The gmt masters wear very small too. I fancied a batgirl (jubilee), it's pretty but it looked a bit like a toy when I wore it

From a financial point of view - both overpriced imho but the hulk is likely to be a better investment. It's gone and it will never come back. If you don't believe there's a Rolex bubble, then both probably safe enough and could well go up more

893bet

https://www.adverts.ie/25133075

Hmmmm. Is there really someone out there paying these prices.

unkel

His prices are always ridiculous. That said some eejits seem to buy there...

Fitz II

I have bought a few off him....prices are strong alright but he has the stock and its handy and local 20k for a hulk is saucy, but he prices for next year not today.