Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

lossless · 05-09-2021 5:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850171#Comment_117850171

Do you have any numbers to back up your claims?

Can you provide the evidence that there is an essential skill shortage that requires 360k extra people? Have you looked at current unemployment numbers in different age groups, pandemic withstanding?

They'll contribute to the economy? Great, but we don't have a labour crisis, we have a housing crisis.

Oh so these people will mostly rent, and that won't effect the housing market?

So you think it's sensible and fair to tell people living here not to have children while hundreds of thousands of others can swan in? They already aren't having children because of the housing crisis. Returning Irish migrants are miniscule in number.

You say that both migrants are filling essential skill shortages, and that it can be manipulated. What are these skills, exactly, that cannot be filled by the entirety of the European Union? At over 79% of migrants (2020 CSO) being non eu, it must be some truly amazing blind spot.

And then the doozy about they only need to "build more". Yeah that's been working really swell. Any century now. Instead, I'll posit the same thing ad nauseum, 300k units versus 360k migrants MIGHT be a more efficacious area to examine in a housing crisis. You know, for the sake of novelty, if nothing else.

Timing belt · 05-09-2021 5:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850252#Comment_117850252

yes I have a back up the population increased by 436.6k during the 10 year period (2011-2021) of which 387.2k related to a natural increase in population (Births less deaths) the remaining 69.4k was due to net immigration. To put that in context immigration on average over the 10 years equates to 3.5k of housing a year (Assuming 2 people pet property). Yes it has an impact on housing demand but not on the scale you are claiming.

Beigepaint · 05-09-2021 6:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117849667#Comment_117849667

You may not be a racist (I believe you, I promise!) but the people who formed your opinions certainly were. You might have been taken in by the dog whistle talk and thought that people meant the nonsense that they were saying.

Here is an illustration for you: if I was to start talking about the number of disabled people in the country and counting the number of accommodation units being wasted on people who don’t contribute to the economy then alarm bells would rightly start ding ding dinging in your head. It would be reasonable for a suspicious person to wonder if I had some kind of “bold” and “clever” “solution” in mind.

Yes we have lots of foreigners, yes they need housing. So what? I believe pogroms are illegal.

lossless · 05-09-2021 6:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850366#Comment_117850366

I appreciate the effort. However, I was far more interested in these essential skill gaps that will require 360k extra people, ~80% of which according to CSO 2020, will come from outside the EU. I'm sure there are plenty of claims, but there would no doubt be a few bones to pick through there. Taken straight from the CIA database perhaps :)

As for your comparison over 10 years, it is rendered meaningless by the recession. Do you remember the woes of the housing crisis back then? No, neither do I.

Further, tracking migration from a far more meaningful time period, 2014/2015 and up, alongside house prices and construction, is far more informative and I'll say predictable.

Regardless, the future is of the only concern, and the trends and statistics highlight one glaring glob that can't be ignored.

I'm not one bit happy with this 2030 "plan" and neither should anyone else be for the logical reasons. Emphasis on "logical".

Fresh thinking. Isn't that what they call necessary when an inttactable problem persists ad infinitum? Or there's that insanity definition instead. It's people's choice.

300k versus 360k. Utter madness to accept.

If you were told to work 5 days a week and receive 1 or 2 days pay, would a person be likely to accept that?

If you bought a 6 pack of beer and received 1 or 2 cans, would a person accept that?

Well it's just the same here with housing. The government are promising 300k units, but, unspoken, a gigantic chunk of them are already spoken for. Nonsense.

lossless · 05-09-2021 6:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850436#Comment_117850436

Ah here now.

The differences between invalides living in the country and people who literally don't live here are insanely incomparable.

As for me being "influenced" by others subconsciously, there's more chance of me headbutting a meteorite back into the cosmos. I'm no bloody acolyte of fools.

As for the pogrom comment, once again, how does one expel someone who doesn't yet exist? Give it a go, try to crash your make-believe ferrari tonight, see how appalled and shocked you are with the damage. It's complete fantasy.

And that fantasy inspired line of "reasoning" is a large culprit for why we are where we are.

Beigepaint · 05-09-2021 6:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850515#Comment_117850515

Grand so, don’t engage.

What will we do about the foreigners? Immigration ban?

Marius34 · 05-09-2021 6:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850440#Comment_117850440

If government blocks non-EU immigration, it could send bad signals to international companies, and even Universities. Unemployment may even increase, rather than decrease. And you may end up not only with housing crisis, but push whole economy into the crisis.

lossless · 05-09-2021 6:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850552#Comment_117850552

Engage with what, your imagined pogroms against literally non-existent people?

If so, you are correct.

lossless · 05-09-2021 7:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850558#Comment_117850558

We have a housing crisis.

If we avoid tackling an existing crisis for fear of imagined, non-existent crises, well, get comfortable with the housing crisis forever.

Then again, there are some who would be VERY comfortable to see things stay just as they are. Ka-ching.

Beigepaint · 05-09-2021 7:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850584#Comment_117850584

You are the one counting the bad people.

To move the conversation forward, I would suggest building more homes is a better solution than reducing the population. I’d also like to stay in the EU so a foreigner ban wouldn’t work for me.

lossless · 05-09-2021 7:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850605#Comment_117850605

It's curious to me. Are you completely oblivious to the kind of thoughts that obviously flow through your mind?

You are the one mentioning "bad" people, you are the one who brought the lovely "N-word" into it earlier, you are the one mentioning "pogroms", you are the one mentioning "foreigners, and if I recall correctly, "dirty foreigners" as well.

Are you aware of the term "Freudian slip"? Are you sure that those thoughts aren't really YOUR feelings?

Oh your going to "move the conversation forward" by suggesting building more homes. Well isn't that quaint. Antiquated, even.

Marius34 · 05-09-2021 7:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850596#Comment_117850596

I'm not advising to avoid tackling housing crisis. But your solution to ban non-EU immigration, could lead to bigger problems, rather than solve housing crisis.

Beigepaint · 05-09-2021 7:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850628#Comment_117850628

No my friend, I am calling you out on the dog whistle talk you are putting out. You are fooling nobody when you put out that 360 - 300 nonsense.

Irish people are massively in favour of the EU so we won’t be leaving the EU, we won’t be kicking out the foreigners and we won’t be banning their entry.

Talk of non nationals is irrelevant.

L1011 · 05-09-2021 8:01pm

Everyone drop the (circular, pointless) immigration stuff

lossless · 05-09-2021 8:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850700#Comment_117850700

To be perfectly clear, not once have I suggested that noneu migration be stopped.

I am merely identifying, what in my opinion and the statistics scream aloud, that migration is key to solving the housing crisis. Migration in general, not specific migration.

When a housing plan that promises 300k units meets a migration plan that promises 360k, that is the area to be scrutinised until the cows come home.

I'd be more than happy to construct a way out of this situation, provide detailed truthful analysis as to not only the housing/migration issue but also all unintended consequences. The thing is, I'm going to want a lot of money for it.

So in the meantime I'll point in the right direction for others who are supposed to be doing their job and failing. And there's no such thing as too much genuine information, so the more people know in general, the better.

300k v 360k ain't no housing plan.

lossless · 05-09-2021 8:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850711#Comment_117850711

I'm no friend of yours, firstly.

Your accusations are fruitless. Trust me.

I'm aware of this phrase "dog whistle", as in a sound (or message) that is ultrasonic (or subconscious).

Horseshyte.

On the contrary, my guy, I propose that you are merely sensitised to such an extent by hapless imbeciles, you are, quite literally, hearing and seeing imaginary things.

As for your interpretation of what Irish people want (leaving the EU??? Huh?), being the great belwether of reality that you are, I'm sorry but I'd sooner believe the economic theories of a dead crab.

Good luck with "pogroms" and whistles and all that.

Mad_maxx · 05-09-2021 9:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850436#Comment_117850436

so we've reached the stage of " The final solution " card being played ?

FFS

mcsean2163 · 05-09-2021 9:16pm

This is the housing thread not the immigration thread. It seems that the moderators are gone AWOL...

Please come back propqueries.

Ireland has become an exciting melting pot of cultures. That benefits some and may disadvantage others. Immigrants just like the millions of Irish emigrants before them require housing. Can we move on.

More supply on myhome. Government signalling vacant property tax in the pipeline. Loads of empty apartments around Dublin. Another year with reduced travel. A commitment to reduce long term leasing for social housing.

Are we at propqueries tipping point already?

AdamD · 05-09-2021 9:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117851074#Comment_117851074

According to propqueries, house prices would have dropped 50% by now, so probably not.

Timing belt · 05-09-2021 9:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117851074#Comment_117851074

I thought Props predication was a housing crash in August and we are now in Sept...

Bass Reeves · 05-09-2021 10:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117851200#Comment_117851200

You are slightly right but not totally correct Props prediction's were

Nov '20

Feb '21

April '21

June' 21

Sept '21

If he was still here in early July he have been predicting a collapse in October, at this stage of the year he be predicting a collapse in December just in time for Christmas.

mcsean2163 · 05-09-2021 10:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117851195#Comment_117851195

I thought he/she'd revised it to flood of property hitting the market due to probate sales and the crash starting in September....

A bit depressing tbh, we're still looking and the prices seem to be rising...

timmyntc · 06-09-2021 9:21am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117842943#Comment_117842943

You made the ridiculous assertion in the first place, that building more houses makes things worse due to the influx of house builders - the burden of proof is firmly on yourself.

Amadan Dubh · 06-09-2021 11:09am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117849824#Comment_117849824

Actually, this is a policy in motion already. They call it "flexible working" and it is a key component of the government's multi-faceted efforts to alleviate pressure on Dublin and revitalise rural Ireland. For example, the new law on requesting remote work looks like it makes it essentially impossible for an employer to force anyone who can WFH to go into the office, as the employer needs strong reasons including measurable performance / business ones to actually reject a request to wfh.

Amadan Dubh · 06-09-2021 11:17am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850558#Comment_117850558

Even with full employment in this country, should foreign companies stall growth plans or even reduce head count, it should not pose such a risk to the wider economy and the property market. However, accepting that the current prices and rents depend on future population growth, which you are effectively doing, is an admission that the current situation of high prices and rents is not sustainable.

The economy should not be so dependent on foreign, multi-nationals and the property market should also not be at risk of a crash due to the MNCs. It again speaks to me of the bubble in the economy and the property market.

I am genuinely shocked that some people would be totally clueless to believe the property market would crash if the economy faltered. That is, quite simply, a sh1tshow of a property market if that is the case.

Amadan Dubh · 06-09-2021 11:25am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117850821#Comment_117850821

You do realise that the most likely party in government in 4 years was up until recently anti-EU? Further, the prospect of a united Ireland referendum in the next decade means our EU membership could be questioned in the discussion (as the North is not in the UK, neither is of course our closest ally in the UK as a whole). As such, I would be careful to jump on the "EU is necessarily good" Boomer bandwagon as the social unrest, populism and whatever else follows from high rents and house prices could result in our EU membership being opened for discussion. Think of the UK and the US and what they mean to our economy; both would happily support us outside of the EU.

Marius34 · 06-09-2021 11:29am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117852784#Comment_117852784

Ireland has a high public debt. Irish Government revenue, highly depends on Multinationals, and on people with high income, to service debt.

"However, accepting that the current prices and rents depend on future population growth, which you are effectively doing, is an admission that the current situation of high prices and rents is not sustainable."

I'm not sure what you want to say here. I'm not admitting that prices can't go up, it can go both ways.

Amadan Dubh · 06-09-2021 11:29am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117852252#Comment_117852252

Ronan Lyons wrote in the Currency last week to set out his interpretation of the data showing that increased supply actually reduced housing costs between 1995 and 2007. But that it was other factors, namely credit, which increased them. The net point that supply results in lower housing costs. That's all it is. All discussion on the problem can be summed up with one solution; supply versus demand.

Amadan Dubh · 06-09-2021 11:36am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117852844#Comment_117852844

My point is that it is shocking to me that our economy and property market would be so interlinked that a faltering in MNC activity would have a material impact in property prices and rents. The property market should be siphoned off from the economy if we want to focus on sustainability in the property market with an equilibrium in costs YoY.

Saying Irish government has high debt is totally meaningless as the metrics used to measure it are totally ill equipped to address the 21st economy. CPI and GDP being the biggest culprits and the central bankers are unable or unwilling to shift their own thinking which has lead to them looking like spare pr1cks at an orgy trying to manage their mandate of ensuring financial stability and consumer protection. I read last week that the governor of the Irish Central Bank said we should use our "surprising" corporate tax windfall to pay down debt - he is an ignoramus. As the ESRI constantly says, we should not be so dependent on MNCs to the point where there is a systemic risk posed to our economy should they stall their growth or pull out of the country, this isn't news but there are people so blinded by the MNC light that they cannot see any other economy which doesn't depend on MNCs.

Marius34 · 06-09-2021 11:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117852881#Comment_117852881

Right, it would be great and more stable, if country would not depend that much on foreign MNC. But it does.

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting