Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117827596#Comment_117827596

Just looking into this a bit more. If we take third level education to mean "skilled". 2020 the net inward migration of "skilled workers" was +33.6k (56.9 in, 23.3 out), the 2021 net inward migration of skilled workers was +10.1k (42.6 in, 32.5 out). In 2020 the net outward migration of unskilled workers was -2.9k in 2021 its -0.8k.

So over the last year we have had a massive drop off in immigration because we had fewer skilled workers arriving in Ireland than previous years and more skilled workers leaving Ireland than in previous years ("brain drain"). The effect on unskilled workers has been fairly negligible.

I know everyone needs a home and unskilled workers/unemployed people may be more likely to get housing through government routes, but I don't see how a shift away from inward skilled migration would be positive for housing demand? Or was this the point you were already making?

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117827738#Comment_117827738

Yes...the British taught a certain cohort more than a few lessons.

Hopefully a correct is sooner rather than later, for the longer it goes on, the more people will be sucked into the trap of owning a house bought for more than its worth.

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117827697#Comment_117827697

Depends what do you mean by the best year. Yes, the best year for lower population increase, but not the best to demands/supply.

By Central Bank low case scenario, where net immigration is 10K, the estimated needs for yearly new supply is 26.5K (34K for immigration of 30K).

For the latest report net immigration was 11.2K, means there should have been over 26.5K new supply, and Ireland had only 20K. Thus the pent-up demands has increased, and housing situation further got worst than previous years.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117827753#Comment_117827753

immigration of skilled workers into Ireland is good for the economy as they contribute to tax take, spend money in the community etc.. Yes this increases the demand for housing and the majority of these skilled workers jobs will be in the Dublin region so a reduction of immigrants should translate to a decrease in demand in this region. Outside of Dublin will see an increase in demand with returning Irish. My point was that changes in immigration have different impacts in different areas of the housing market.

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117827905#Comment_117827905

But now you have the REITs and councils buying up any available properties.

So thats fine for renters (there are other issues there) and council tenants, but BAD for people who want to buy.

rob316

If they just stopped funds buying up estates, stopped councils from bidding against 1st time buyers and brought the endless amount of social housing boarded up back to a livable condition, that would go along way to making things affordable and ensuring supply.

All this guff yesterday again are demand measures. Its a supply issue and they still don't get it.

Amadan Dubh

A very interesting article by Ronan Lyons in The Currency today, part of a series of articles he has been writing for them.

He really takes issue with objectors to property developments and emphasises how increased supply is absolutely and inextricably linked to decreases in rents and prices.

Extract below.

https://thecurrency.news/articles/58852/ireland-has-a-new-tool-to-tell-local-authorities-how-many-houses-they-need-and-it-is-going-to-make-things-much-worse/

Adjusting for inflation, what drove housing prices in Ireland between the 1970s and the 2010s, across different market ups and downs. My conclusion at the time (2013) was to highlight the role of credit conditions in driving up prices in the early 2000s. Given how things stand now, it is perhaps equally important to highlight the red bars, the impact of additional supply as it pulls down prices each and every year.

Note the extraordinary impact of all the new homes built between 1995 and 2007. Every single year for 12 years, new supply being built was lowering real housing prices by roughly 5 per cent. Prices rose not because supply has no impact – or indeed because supply increases prices – but because there was not enough new supply to offset other factors pulling prices up, in particular rising incomes in the late 1990s and looser lending in the early 2000s.

Everything else being equal, supply lowered prices by an astonishing 45 per cent between 1995 and 2007. Everything else was not, of course, equal but in certain parts of the country the impact of this extra supply, ultimately driven by tax breaks on build costs, was obvious in 2012 and is still obvious nearly a decade later.

That analysis stops in 2012 and uses capital values but the same result is apparent from an analysis specifically of the rental sector and which continues to 2020: controlling for demand, more supply lowers rents. Intricate quantitative analysis is necessary to make these causal conclusions but can put some readers off.

Fortunately, the same point can easily be shown with a simple scatterplot of rental supply in Dublin and subsequent changes in rents. This is shown below, and the pattern is striking: an additional 1,000 rental homes on the market typically push rents down by 5 per cent.

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117841078#Comment_117841078

If a million new houses appeared overnight, already replete with a million new occupants, by how much has supply increased?

This "build more" mantra, taken as it is in complete isolation of all other pertinent, glaring factors, has had it's day, nee years, in the sun.

Coincidentally I just picked up a broadcast from the future, it's now the year of our Lord 2198, and people are talking about fixing the housing crisis in Ireland by building more homes. Sinn Gael says so. Weird!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117842715#Comment_117842715

where do the million new occupants come from?

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117842726#Comment_117842726

...and other jokes to win friends".

Seriously though, I couldn't tell you. I think they spontaneously exist out of the grass. If there was only a central repository of information on such things, even better if you could overlay such non-existent information over government promises through the years. It would potentially be possible to come to logical, reasonable conclusions as to how a housing crisis goes on, and on, and on, and on.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117842783#Comment_117842783

Are you implying building more houses attracts net more people than the houses could be filled with?

In that case we should just destroy houses instead, surely that will make things better if building more wont!

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117842834#Comment_117842834

Yes, I am suggesting that the solution to the housing "crisis" is to destroy homes. An accurate and thoughtful interpretation, thank you.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117842715#Comment_117842715

There may have been a mantra of build more but that’s all it was as it didn’t translate to new properties actually being built.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117842877#Comment_117842877

You were implying that there is no net benefit to building more homes as the labour market growth required to build them ends up swallowing any gain in dwellings, because the people who built them need to live somewhere.

This is totally wrong - and following that logic, you might as well destroy homes as it would go as much good for prices as building them

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117842895#Comment_117842895

Saying "that's totally wrong" with nowt back up is like screaming hallelujah at a hedgehog, it's confusing, less amusing and ultimately pointless.

I suggest you look at the new housing plan (it's not new) and it's projected numbers of new housing, then look at the population policies and projections of the same government, over the exact same time period, and see if you notice something "peculiarly reminiscent" between the two as you go back and forth.

Amadan Dubh

Considering half our immigration is from people who are from non-EU countries, it is certainly a possibility that we have more freedom to temper the numbers arriving on our shores. It would at least suppress some of the future demand for housing and give existing supply a chance to ramp up.

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117843528#Comment_117843528

Just taking that prong of the trident alone, it is quite exemplary in showcasing the "planning" of these governments.

They have reams of information available, thousands of people producing reports left and right, consultations on the ready, expertise on call, minutiae of projections, predictions, presentations. All happening every day of the week.

So, when someone suggested, for the 10,000th time that "pErHapS ReDuCinG ExTRa PeOPLe wOulD hAVe a SigNifiCanT iMpacT on HoMe proVisIoN", and, for the 10,000th time they were told to shut their mouth...

something that requires no effort, no construction, no planning, no disputes, no legal fees, no complications. A decision that requires them to only NOT do something...

that tells you everything about their commitment to maintaining the housing crisis.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117843528#Comment_117843528

Do you have links to these statistics?

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117843599#Comment_117843599

youll find quite a bit of information there, fill your cup. Edit, I tried to link to cso, but I'm not allowed. You'll find it if you go looking.

For example, unless I read it too quickly, 23k of the 29k net migration last year, during a global pandemic, were neither from EU27, UK, America Canada or Australia.

That's 79%.

You are claiming that 23,000 immigrants into Ireland last year were from non EU countries, the UK, America or Australia?

Is that what you're saying?

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117843649#Comment_117843649

No, that's not what I am saying, that is what the CSO has recorded. Seeing as I can't link to it, I'll transcribe...

Net migration 2020

5.3k UK

1.6k Eu14 excluding Ireland

Minus 0.4k EU15 to EU27

0.2k Australia

Minus 0.1k Canada

Minus 0.5k USA

22.7k rest of world

Total migration of 29k

In other words, 23k, 79% of all extra people who moved into Ireland last year were from "rest of the world". So much for "but the EU freedom of movement" excuse.

Oh and about 20 odd thousand dwelling units were built in the same year. Curious in it's convenience, just like their "new housing plan".

So 23,000 people moved to Ireland in 2020? From outside the EU?

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117843748#Comment_117843748

No. 29k moved to Ireland in total, Net. That means extra people.

23k of those 29k were NOT from the Eu27, they were also NOT from USA, nor Australia, nor UK, nor Canada.

Those 23k were from "rest of the world".

How many different ways do you want me to answer the same question?

That's exactly what I said? I'm not asking you to answer the same question.

I find it very hard to believe.

Shelga

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117827079#Comment_117827079

Hi RichardAnd, just wanted to say I agree with everything you say here. I’m also 34 and feel the same. I’ve just been outbid yet again on another house, and I don’t know how much more of this process I can take, mentally. It’s soul-destroying. Lately when I’m on endless Teams call all day I find myself thinking- what’s the point? Why am I doing this? All of the other people on the call in their 40s and 50s have their own homes, partners, kids. I’m sitting in my childhood bedroom with no sign of anything changing.

I feel like a failure even though I know it’s not me. How are you meant to date when you’re living at home for years on end and spending all of your spare time looking at dregs on Daft.

I’m just so f*cking sick of it. Wish I had never come home from England tbh.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117843920#Comment_117843920

Hi Shelga,

Thank you for the personalised reply. It sounds like we very much have the same situation, right down to the accursed MS Teams and the childhood bedroom.

I'm living with my mom at the moment. I'm glad to be able to look after her as she gets older as my dad left her, but at the same time, I am poignantly aware that my own time is ticking away and producing little; just like the savings that I have accumulated. The very idea of dating doesn't even enter my mind and as for a family, why on earth bring a child into a world where I see little future for them?

If there is one thing that provide a modicum of comfort it is that I at least now know that the game is rigged.

Heraclius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117843859#Comment_117843859

Based on what I can see on the CSO website 65,000 people immigrated to Ireland in the year to April 2021 of whom 30,000 were Irish nationals, 14,000 were in the non-irish, non UK, non-EU category. I think 56,000 left. I'm a bit confused about this 79% figure.

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117843859#Comment_117843859

Well I'm glad you follow, I was misconstruing your intent.

About the incredulity you feel, and no doubt others are of equal skepticism at the outrageous brazenness of it all, you need to direct that emotion and energy toward the perpetrators of this scam.

They are getting away with it by separating facts, and then relying upon the general population to not have the wherewithal to join the dots.

They are not going to keep getting away with this, surely the sun is setting on this pretence of housing "crisis" versus the reality of artificial design.

lossless

To shelga and richardand above....

This is the truth of the situation, the personal hardships and consequences that simply cannot be captured in statistics or reports. The fallout of this circus show that's enriching a few sneaking rats, while large swathes of the country are being silently destroyed under false pretence.

Im aware of many similar stories.

Watch the numbers, follow the money, and then direct that resultant anger in constructive ways. At the very least, question the next politician you come across on the numbers that you'll know so well. See how well they know them. See what excuses or admittances they give.

If you're waiting for the profiteers to end the gravy train of their own accord, you'll never not be waiting.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117844147#Comment_117844147

What scam?