I may risk as though I’m trying to come across as some expert here - that I’m am absolutely not. However anybody with a modicum of numerical analysis and probability skills (together with an understanding of the Dublin mindset) is I believe just as likely to arrive as the conclusions I have drawn above.
As to your - will 60 be good enough for UCC. That I believe is a more difficult one than say - will all the 57’s getting UL.
UCC having only 40 places - the second round chances are going to be made up of from the 9/10 category I referred to above plus the Dublin gang with a current UCC offer who refuse to go down to Cork. I suspect the refusal to go to Cork might be small enough as UCC is really respected and uses the traditional teaching method. I could be corrected here but might there also be mature entrants in Dublin (rcsi/ucd) who also entered the gam route. if they were to be successful at the gam route but decide on sticking with their mature entry offer that also might create another trickledown to cork places.
it’s a hard call. But I would definitely say in all probability most 60’s will get their UCC offer.
@Beggerboy thank you for this hope. I’m clinging into it for now. I’m your opinion how likely do you think a score of 60 is to get into UCC in further rounds?
My main hope is the people who will be going to Derry but still have got and offer through the cao .. hopefully there might be a few of those to bump us all up ..
I’m not sure if anyone knows the answer to this but worth asking! I have 61 and got into cork which was 61*. I’m just wondering if that means when it comes to second rounds if UCD were to drop to 61 would I be ahead (in terms of random numbers) of those who also have 61 but did not get offered cork. Thanks a mill!
Does anyone know we’re there many people sitting on 61 who didn’t get an offer from UCC?
Has anyone here accepted a Graduate place over a mature entry one? Holding out hope that I get in via wait list.
I didn’t think you could apply for both graduate and mature the same year? Is this not true?
Not actually sure on that one but I have only applied via the mature entry route. From speaking to RCSI they seemed to imply some mature applicants were also waiting for GAMSAT scores for GEM.
You can definitely do both! They have different course codes, I applied for both last year but didn't get very far with my mature entry route!
Is that your random number for UL?
My random number for UL is 390 and I'm on 56, so no idea what that actually means 😅
I emailed UL to find out my random number and they’ve just told me they can’t release that information? Did you email the admissions office?:)
I emailed the CAO actually :) you just fill in the queries submission on their website, they got back to me within 24 hours.
Ok I’ll try that - thank you!😊
Anyone else here going to ucc or know anyone that is?
Hey for anyone interested, check out Reddit for further discussions relating this year's GEM programmes. The r/GAMSAT community has polls and other stuff on there which may be of interest.
Aghh amazing ! Would be great to get in contact before we start as I know the programme is quite small🙂
Is anybody who got a place in Derry not accepting it?
Me (: I declined today
Yeah I'm also for UCC, looking forward to it! And have turned down a place in Derry
Ah great! If you guys want you can message me your numbers and I can make a WhatsApp group or something 😇
This is my final stab at to how it might all play out... in particular for those waiting a UL place.
It been accepted that UL being last in the selection chain - means every new place opening up in Dublin and Cork eventually eventually trickles down to a new place in UL.
1 Calculate new places that might materialise in Dublin. - 10
We can make a stab at this from estimating the total new places that might appear over rounds 1 and round 2 for UCD and RCSI.
Again, to rehash, these will be persons who have Dublin offers but decide to defer take up until next year, not to pursue med at all or encounter difficulties with their funding. UCD 77 places RCSI 30- Total 107 places. I think a reasonable (conservative) guess here might be a total of 10 places over the next 2 rounds.
That`s just 9.3% of the O round offers. - I dont think its high - as I think these 10 places might also easily be helped by the ´covid factor´. i.e. the massive increase in applicants this year largely influenced by entrants who decided to study and sit gamsat because there was not a whole else going on. An ideal time to try your hand even if you were not fully committed to taking up the offer this year. (particularly from the high 65+ candidates as they can safely bank it until next year)
2 Calculate new places that might materialise in Cork - 2
For UCC - you can only count as new places those which might come about from persons who had got UCC as their 1st preference - and then deciding not to pursue for same reasons above in Dublin and wont go to UL either. Lets say 15-18 of those 30 UCC offers are with Cork people. Likely their might only be 1 or 2 from here who may pass UCC place up.
3 Calculate numbers from Greater the Dublin areas and beyond who are on the an existing UL and Cork offer - but will turn down because reasons already given in earlier post. - 21
I had this at 23 - 28. I know people might be sceptical of this but even if you tone it down to 30% of the 70 persons - you still get 21 places. I think its very reasonable to assume the turn down from this group is likely to be much higher this year as it will entirely made up of person with 61 - 60 -59 -58. These are scores mostly from Dublin based people who will believe it should get them into Dublin/UCC any other year.
4 Calculate the Derry Factor - 10
This is the reason I revisited the calculation. On a re- I think, I believe this is what throws the monkey wrench into the works. I was far too conservative on this earlier. Derry has 70 places. However - it has a low entry point - 54. If we use the score of 58 - this has a 45th percentile for the March sitting per Acer. This translates into a max of only 39 persons with a Derry offer would also qualifying for a CAO offer. It must be reasonable to assume at least half those with a Derry offer would have also sat the CAO. This being so, as many as 20 with Derry Offers also hold a CAO offer. We can then say of these 20 only half need give up their CAO offer stay with their Derry offer. This gives us 10 new places. This might even be higher. Derry is so much a cheaper option and the applicants to Derry are much more likely to be from the northern / 6 county area. So Derry will definitley be their 1st pref.
The above gives up a total of (10+2+21+10) 43 places so far.
5 Calculate the unallocated places for those stuck at 62 for UCD. - Minus 5 places
Those on the wrong side of the UCD 62* lottery needs to be calculated - as these places need to be subtracted from the above. Using a median score of 59 per Acer - I would calculate the distribution number for persons at each gamsat point at 15 over the 242 offers made. Therefore again been prudent ,lets say as many as 10 persons with 62 are in for UCD. Assuming again only half of these 10 have been given a place already with their 62 then that leaves 5 more. This 5 needs to be subtracted from the above 43 places as the first 5 openings wont trickle down.
I am going to even ignore the successful Mature Students for (RCSI 15 places and TCD/UCD 9 or 10) who may also applied for grad entry and perhaps got UCC or UL. Likelihood the Matures in Dublin would stick with their Dublin mature offer than move down to Cork/UL. But as I say, let ignore this as it may be small if any although I believe there is at least 1.
So that nets out my calculation - Conclusion : there may likely to be 38 places at least that will rotate into new offers at UL.
57 and 58 awaitng UL
There is already a poll showing 11 persons are waiting on 58 for UL place and 14 persons waiting on 57. That`s only a total of 25 so far. I don`t believe this group (57 +58) can go much can go much higher than a total of 30 - (the mean distribution for each gamsat point I would calculate at 15 persons per point when using 242 places and using gamsat scores ranging from 58 to 72). With 38 places there is therefore plenty of room for all the 57 and 58`in UL.
56 awaiting UL
So that still leaves at least (38-30) 8 places for those on 56 plus any turn downs from the 57 and 58`s.
So I guess those on 56 with a random number above 300 might also be safe - if the above stands up.
I'm on 56 with a random number of 952, do you think that I'm safe? Studying for the gamsat again is actually killing me haha
If you are correct, I will literally hail you as the messiah
I struggle to understand how you can quantity the unknown. While i dont disagree places will be freed up, How can you put numbers on it ?
I for one hope you are correct as many people, I included will benefit from it. But it is at best speculation and while its lovely to keep a positive mindset its also necessary to be realistic.
This is ultimately a waiting game for anybody not directly working for the CAO and Admissions departments of the colleges, and if im honest i dont believe the CAO or the colleges can predict, with any reasonable degree of accuracy which candiates will accept or reject an offer because this is ultimately down to every individual person and their individual circumstances.
Random numbers are only used when there are more applicants on the same points then there is places available. i.e if there are 4 places available but 10 applicants on the same points. The 4 people with the highest random numbers on the same points will be offered places before the other 6. With regards to your situation, if the points were to drop to 56, you would be highly likely to be offered as your random number is very close to the highest random number available (999). Nobody knows what will happen with the points as its dictated by supply and demand. Its honestly just a waiting game, however painful it is.
I hate to be negative but I think this is highly unrealistic. I think you're underestimating the number of candidates on 58 points. My friend was on 58 last year and missed out on ucd. When on the waiting list, there was at least 20 people ahead of him with 58 also who did not get offers. That does not include everyone who has 58 and accepted UCC and UL. The idea that there may only be 10 people with 57 who accept UL and the points will drop to 56 is a stretch in my opinion. Dont want to give people false hope. This is a harsh enough process already
Hey up Kieran
Yeah sure...my analysis is obviously speculative and not intended to be read as gospel.
I`ve just laid out my rationale to what may I believe maybe a very plausible outcome. Feel free to pick it apart where you think it it verges on the ridiculous ..as I say, it s just some (thoughtful) assumptions put together and posted to amuse. I wont be offended whatever you might think.
Hi Tacadh, this is Jesus here. Just like water into wine, that 952 will with almost certain probability, turn your 56 into a 57. Albeit the smallest man in the 57 family.
Hi Gamesatter, having a high number of persons on the same points (say well over 20) is just down right unlucky. When you spread 242 places over a gamsat point range of say 55 to mid 70`s (say 75 .. there are a even few smart cookies around town probably popping 75+) then then mean distribution is always likely to be below 20 persons per gamsat point. But hey, you gotta accept the pattern of the distribution may not always follow the law of probability.
Maybe for those negatively effected by my musings I should should apologise as they were not intended to give you a false high. Just trying to breakdown a very cloudy picture rather than remain in state of depression about things.
Cheers guys !
Anyone turning down UCC?