August 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

Okay, looks like I have screwed up the bonus question, I meant to have it refer to the 24hour maximum but it doesn't say that, so some forecasters have posted monthly totals, others probably thought I meant daily totals.

What we will need to do then is allow anyone who posted a monthly total to offer a daily maximum by end of the 3rd, no penalty. I will contract anyone who does not appear to have done so by end of the 1st.

Sorry about that, it may have nothing to do with the oversight but I have been facing weeks and weeks of awful heat and occasionally noxious smoke haze here and it seems to be affecting my mental functioning slightly as I've wrong-posted three things that I know about in the past month (and if there was one thing I could usually rely on, it was accurate posting by and large).

So if you have time left to edit a monthly amount that you submitted, just edit your post, if that time has run out, add a new forecast for the highest 24h amount and location.

My apologies for not catching this earlier, I tend to let this thread ride until the deadline then see how it's going.

If anyone thinks their daily-rainfall guess might be taken as a monthly instead, just edit in "bonus okay" or something like that. This does give anyone a two-day time window to edit a daily guess, I have not paid much attention to how the first three days look for candidate amounts as my last thought about that was, not likely to be a factor.

So I am just looking through the entries and will contact one or two people later today to find out if they want a lower value than what may be monthly scale predictions but it looks like many caught the comments about it and changed their forecasts, or confirmed that they were okay anyway.

As to that 57.3 mm that could be real since the GFS was also showing some local amounts in the 30-40 mm range in the Ulster-Connacht border regions.

Since I'm allowing people to change forecasts, anyone can do so until I produce the table of forecasts, but try to use a fair play principle (if the new info changes your mind, maybe stick with the old call). Anyone who doesn't revise a monthly by end of today is pretty much stuck with their monthly number but who knows that could be a good thing.

Table of forecasts for August 2021

FORECASTER ____ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max 24h rain, loc'n

Jpmarn _________15.9 _ 27.5 _ 2.5 _ 125 _ 095 __ 55.0 Valentia

WesternStorm ___ 15.6 _ 27.5 _ 2.3 _ 090 _ 110 __ 48.0 Knock

Sunflower3 ______15.6 _ 27.5 _ 2.6 _ 095 _ 090 __ 65.5 Valentia

Mr stonewall _____15.6 _ 27.1 _ 2.3 _ 084 _ 118 __ 21.0 Shannon

Tae laidir _______ 15.5 _ 27.3 _ 3.3 _ 098 _ 095 __ 47.5 Malin

Joe Public _______15.4 _ 29.5 _ 2.5 _ 090 _ 120 __ 65.2 Finner

waterways ______ 15.4 _ 28.4 _ 2.5 _ 117 _ 115 __ 52.5 Cork

MrSkinner _______15.3 _ 25.0 _ 2.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 55.0 Valentia

Dasa29 _________15.2 _ 25.5 _ 5.0 _ 095 _ 115 __ 45.0 Mullingar

Dacogawa _______15.1 _ 29.4 _ 2.2 _ 186 _ 089 __ 190 Belmullet

___ NormaL _____15.1 _ 27.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 40.0 (location by climatology)

Kindred Spirit ___ 15.0 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 105 _ 090 __ 46.0 Newport

Gaoth Laidir _____15.0 _ 25.3 _-1.5 _ 115 _ 097 __ 72.0 Claremorris

___ Con sensus __15.0 _ 26.3 _ 2.1 _ 115 _ 090 __ 50.0

Artane2002 _____ 14.9 _ 26.4 _ 0.9 _ 110 _ 090 __ 38.4 Newport

Adam240610 ____ 14.9 _ 26.2 _ 1.8 _ 120 _ 085 __ 51.4 Cork

M.T. Cranium ____ 14.9 _ 26.0 _ 1.5 _ 120 _ 090 __ 55.5 Cork

Esposito ________ 14.8 _ 27.3 _ 2.3 _ 144 _ 099 __ 36.8 Newport

DOCARCH _______14.8 _ 26.8 _ 2.1 _ 115 _ 092 ___ 7.5 Belmullet

Bsal ___________ 14.8 _ 24.9 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 091 __ 38.0 Knock

sryanbruen ______14.7 _ 25.1 _ 2.1 _ 115 _ 090 __ 32.0 Claremorris

Gonzo __________14.6 _ 25.3 _ 1.2 _ 135 _ 082 __ 28.0 Dunsany

SleetAndSnow ___ 14.5 _ 25.1 _ 1.4 _ 138 _ 085 __ 60.5 Cork

200motels ______ 14.4 _ 25.3 _ 1.4 _ 122 _ 080 __ 166.44 Newport

Appledrop _______14.4 _ 25.2 _ 1.8 _ 130 _ 078 __ 50.0 Newport

Pauldry _________14.3 _ 26.3 _ 1.1 _ 155 _ 081 __ 50.0 Newport

______________________________________________

My earlier comment about who might need to revise down to daily rainfall was partly in error because I noted that waterways had changed that amount in a later post, so it was actually dacogawa and 200motels who might need to change their numbers. One or two others look a bit high when compared to the PRC forecast but not so much that I felt sure about it. ... so those two have a bit of time left to submit a revision. At the moment, 24 forecasts have this spread for locations of max 24h rainfall ... this is slightly revised as bsal took up my offer to reduce his estimate and changed to Knock. I'm wondering if 200motels meant 166 if monthly, 44 if daily with the entry shown, some of our contest people only show up once a month to enter contests so I am not sure if I am going to hear back (same goes for dacogawa who was very certainly thinking monthly).

Newport ____ 6 (Con sensus scores 3 if correct)

Cork _______ 4 (Con sensus scores 3 if correct)

Valentia ____ 3 (Con sensus scores 2 if correct)

Shannon ____2 (Con sensus scores 2 if correct)

Belmullet ___ 2 (Con sensus scores 2 if correct)

Claremorris __2 (Con sensus scores 2 if correct)

Knock ______ 2 (Con sensus scores 2 if correct)

The following had one selection each (Con Sensus scores 1 if any are the max)

Finner, Dunsany, Mullingar, Malin Head