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August 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 2021-07-30T12:37:12+00:00

* Predict the IMT, or Irish mean temperature, the average for five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon). The 1981-2010 average was 15.1 C. * Predict the MAX, highest temperature at any of the regular reporting locations in the "yesterday's weather" section of the met.ie website. * Predict the…

M.T. Cranium

Predict the IMT, or Irish mean temperature, the average for five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon). The 1981-2010 average was 15.1 C.
Predict the MAX, highest temperature at any of the regular reporting locations in the "yesterday's weather" section of the met.ie website.
Predict the MIN, lowest temperature at any of the regular reporting locations in the "yesterday's weather" section of the met/ie wensite.
Predict the PRC, the amount of rainfall compared to normal in percentage terms, for eleven locations -- the five used for the IMT, plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Cork. Johnstown Castle, and Valentia.
Predict the SUN, the amount of sunshine hours compared to normal in percentage terms, for six locations -- Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia.
BONUS -- Predict the maximum rainfall amount for the month at any of the regular locations, amount and location (date not required).

My predictions and NormaL ...

M.T. Cranium ____ 14.9 _ 26.0 _ 1.5 _ 120 _ 090 _ 55.5 (Cork)

NormaL ________ 15.1 _ 27.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 _ 40.0 (location by climatology)

With the new Boards format and possible delays in reconnection, I will take a wait and see approach to later penalties, but expect some deductions if you aren't in by 0900h Sunday 1st of August.

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John mac

johnmac____ 14.9 _ 26.9 _ 2.5 _ 110 _ 098 _ 49.8 (Newport)

dasa29

I cant edit my post so here it is with a daily total

Dasa29 ____ 15.2 _ 25.5 _ 5.0 _ 95 _ 115 _ 45.0 (Mullingar)

Also Gaoth Laidir I think you are missing something in your forecast, either PRC or the SUN.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117690866#Comment_117690866

You're dead right, thanks! I had left out the PRC rainfall figure.

Here is my corrected entry

Gaoth Laidir____15.0 _ 25.3 _ -1.5 _ 115 _ 97 _ 72.0 (Claremorris).

pauldry

Change me to 50mm Newport

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117692431#Comment_117692431

Ah here pauldry don't be copying me😄

Tae laidir

Knock Airport streaks into the lead with 0.2mm after Day 1.

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117696692#Comment_117696692

Wow can't see that being beaten😉

pauldry

If yr.no is to be believed next Friday will be a very wet day in Sligo. 57mm they say. Could be a typo and they mean 5.7mm but still it could be a day that sets a marker for the contest or Thursday coming.

M.T. Cranium

So I am just looking through the entries and will contact one or two people later today to find out if they want a lower value than what may be monthly scale predictions but it looks like many caught the comments about it and changed their forecasts, or confirmed that they were okay anyway.

As to that 57.3 mm that could be real since the GFS was also showing some local amounts in the 30-40 mm range in the Ulster-Connacht border regions.

Since I'm allowing people to change forecasts, anyone can do so until I produce the table of forecasts, but try to use a fair play principle (if the new info changes your mind, maybe stick with the old call). Anyone who doesn't revise a monthly by end of today is pretty much stuck with their monthly number but who knows that could be a good thing.

M.T. Cranium

So the two remaining forecasts that look sort of monthly scale to me are from dacogawa and waterways, and I sent them messages about it.

I hope to have the table of forecasts up by this evening then.

Tae laidir

Markee Castle comes up on the blind side with a 21.7.

pauldry

Yes and only 6mm in Sligo less than 10km away.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for August 2021

FORECASTER ____ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max 24h rain, loc'n

Jpmarn _________15.9 _ 27.5 _ 2.5 _ 125 _ 095 __ 55.0 Valentia

WesternStorm ___ 15.6 _ 27.5 _ 2.3 _ 090 _ 110 __ 48.0 Knock

Sunflower3 ______15.6 _ 27.5 _ 2.6 _ 095 _ 090 __ 65.5 Valentia

Mr stonewall _____15.6 _ 27.1 _ 2.3 _ 084 _ 118 __ 21.0 Shannon

Tae laidir _______ 15.5 _ 27.3 _ 3.3 _ 098 _ 095 __ 47.5 Malin

Joe Public _______15.4 _ 29.5 _ 2.5 _ 090 _ 120 __ 65.2 Finner

waterways ______ 15.4 _ 28.4 _ 2.5 _ 117 _ 115 __ 52.5 Cork

MrSkinner _______15.3 _ 25.0 _ 2.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 55.0 Valentia

Dasa29 _________15.2 _ 25.5 _ 5.0 _ 095 _ 115 __ 45.0 Mullingar

Dacogawa _______15.1 _ 29.4 _ 2.2 _ 186 _ 089 __ 190 Belmullet

___ NormaL _____15.1 _ 27.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 40.0 (location by climatology)

Kindred Spirit ___ 15.0 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 105 _ 090 __ 46.0 Newport

Gaoth Laidir _____15.0 _ 25.3 _-1.5 _ 115 _ 097 __ 72.0 Claremorris

___ Con sensus __15.0 _ 26.3 _ 2.1 _ 115 _ 090 __ 50.0

Artane2002 _____ 14.9 _ 26.4 _ 0.9 _ 110 _ 090 __ 38.4 Newport

Adam240610 ____ 14.9 _ 26.2 _ 1.8 _ 120 _ 085 __ 51.4 Cork

M.T. Cranium ____ 14.9 _ 26.0 _ 1.5 _ 120 _ 090 __ 55.5 Cork

Esposito ________ 14.8 _ 27.3 _ 2.3 _ 144 _ 099 __ 36.8 Newport

DOCARCH _______14.8 _ 26.8 _ 2.1 _ 115 _ 092 ___ 7.5 Belmullet

Bsal ___________ 14.8 _ 24.9 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 091 __ 38.0 Knock

sryanbruen ______14.7 _ 25.1 _ 2.1 _ 115 _ 090 __ 32.0 Claremorris

Gonzo __________14.6 _ 25.3 _ 1.2 _ 135 _ 082 __ 28.0 Dunsany

SleetAndSnow ___ 14.5 _ 25.1 _ 1.4 _ 138 _ 085 __ 60.5 Cork

200motels ______ 14.4 _ 25.3 _ 1.4 _ 122 _ 080 __ 166.44 Newport

Appledrop _______14.4 _ 25.2 _ 1.8 _ 130 _ 078 __ 50.0 Newport

Pauldry _________14.3 _ 26.3 _ 1.1 _ 155 _ 081 __ 50.0 Newport

______________________________________________

My earlier comment about who might need to revise down to daily rainfall was partly in error because I noted that waterways had changed that amount in a later post, so it was actually dacogawa and 200motels who might need to change their numbers. One or two others look a bit high when compared to the PRC forecast but not so much that I felt sure about it. ... so those two have a bit of time left to submit a revision. At the moment, 24 forecasts have this spread for locations of max 24h rainfall ... this is slightly revised as bsal took up my offer to reduce his estimate and changed to Knock. I'm wondering if 200motels meant 166 if monthly, 44 if daily with the entry shown, some of our contest people only show up once a month to enter contests so I am not sure if I am going to hear back (same goes for dacogawa who was very certainly thinking monthly).

Newport ____ 6 (Con sensus scores 3 if correct)

Cork _______ 4 (Con sensus scores 3 if correct)

Valentia ____ 3 (Con sensus scores 2 if correct)

Shannon ____2 (Con sensus scores 2 if correct)

Belmullet ___ 2 (Con sensus scores 2 if correct)

Claremorris __2 (Con sensus scores 2 if correct)

Knock ______ 2 (Con sensus scores 2 if correct)

The following had one selection each (Con Sensus scores 1 if any are the max)

Finner, Dunsany, Mullingar, Malin Head

pauldry

Funny so many of us picked Newport when it can pee rain in thunderstorms anywhere

Tae laidir

Connacht (Mayo) 12

Munster 9

Leinster 2

Ulster 2

Will Mayo pull off the double?

appledrop

Newport does get a lot of rain in August, but I remember picking it last year + I don't think it even ended up on running as Cork or Valentia I think ended up winning.

pauldry

Today will set a marker. Most likely in the West or Northwest.

Tae laidir

Casement 22.7 yesterday

pauldry

Tae thats temperature so a new max so far.

Surely we will beat that.

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117708554#Comment_117708554

Too right, it's like a winters day here in Dublin. Will be interesting to see where max rain falls today.

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117708701#Comment_117708701

Tae, when I read your post I thought you meant rain + I was like but it was lovely at Dublin Airport yesterday, how did Casement get 22mm of rain😅

pauldry

So did I appledrop.

Anyways rain so far in Claremorris today is 21mm so it will likely set the marker.

Tae laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117709450#Comment_117709450

Sorry I wasn't clear.

22.7 is temp max.

pauldry

Mullingar (thunder)storms into the lead as 18.4mm in the past 1hour!!

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117710818#Comment_117710818

In one hour🤯 hope Mullingar is not washed away!

Jpmarn

Mullingar got over 55mm of rain and the day isn’t over yet. Claremorris got excess of 35mm today. Dublin Airport over 15mm but Phoenix Park and the majority of the stations got relatively small amounts of rain.

pauldry

Mullingar is going to farcicalize the contest. Near 70mm there now. Still echoes on the radar.

Sryan what's Mullingars highest daily rainfall for August?

Remember Dublin getting lots in August before during All Ireland semi. 78mm I think. Got 93mm in Sligo during Desmond and 78mm in inland Leitrim around 2010 or 2011 in 24 hours

Sligo figure was over the course of 2 days but within 24 hours.

M.T. Cranium

Dacogawa confirms that he would like to stick with his posted forecast (190 mm).

Tae laidir

Mullingar confirmed with 70.9 mm

M.T. Cranium

I am seeing 71.1 mm listed now -- very close to the 72 mm call of Gaoth Laidir.