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August 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 30-07-2021 1:37pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,189 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT, or Irish mean temperature, the average for five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon). The 1981-2010 average was 15.1 C.
    2. Predict the MAX, highest temperature at any of the regular reporting locations in the "yesterday's weather" section of the met.ie website.
    3. Predict the MIN, lowest temperature at any of the regular reporting locations in the "yesterday's weather" section of the met/ie wensite.
    4. Predict the PRC, the amount of rainfall compared to normal in percentage terms, for eleven locations -- the five used for the IMT, plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Cork. Johnstown Castle, and Valentia.
    5. Predict the SUN, the amount of sunshine hours compared to normal in percentage terms, for six locations -- Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia.
    6. BONUS -- Predict the maximum rainfall amount for the month at any of the regular locations, amount and location (date not required).

    My predictions and NormaL ...

    M.T. Cranium ____ 14.9 _ 26.0 _ 1.5 _ 120 _ 090 _ 55.5 (Cork)

    NormaL ________ 15.1 _ 27.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 _ 40.0 (location by climatology)

    With the new Boards format and possible delays in reconnection, I will take a wait and see approach to later penalties, but expect some deductions if you aren't in by 0900h Sunday 1st of August.



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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,175 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Gonzo ____ 14.6 _ 25.3 _ 1.2_ 135 _ 082 _ 28.0mm (Dunsany)

    Post edited by Gonzo on


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry ____ 14.3_ 26.3 _ 1.1_ 155 _ 081 _ 50 (Newport Furnace)

    Post edited by DOCARCH on


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭ SleetAndSnow


    SleetAndSnow ____ 14.5 _ 25.1 _ 1.4 _ 138 _ 085 _ 60.5 (Cork)



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,195 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Gaoth Laidir____15.0 _ 25.3 _ -1.5 _ 115 _ 97 _ 72.0 (Claremorris).

    Post edited by DOCARCH on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public ____ 15.4 _ 29.5 _ 2.5 _ 90 _ 120 _ 65.2 (Finner)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal ________ 14.8 _ 24.9 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 91 _ 85 (Shannon Airport)



  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 15.0 ___ 26.0 ___ 2.0 ___ 105 ___ 90 ___ 46 Newport Furnace.

    Post edited by DOCARCH on


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,103 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ____ 14.8 _ 26.8 _ 2.1 _ 115 _ 092 _ 7.5 (Belmullet)

    Post edited by DOCARCH on


  • Registered Users Posts: 24 WesternStorm


    WesternStorm ____ 15.6 _ 27.5 _ 2.3 _ 090 _ 110 _ 48 (Knock Airport)



  • Registered Users Posts: 746 ✭✭✭ mr.stonewall


    Mr stonewall___15.6__27.1___2.3___84__118__38 21mm Shannon

    Post edited by mr.stonewall on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ____ 14.7 _ 25.1 _ 2.1 _ 115 _ 090 _ 32 (Claremorris)

    Post edited by sryanbruen on

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 956 ✭✭✭ esposito


    Esposito ____ 14.8_ 27.3 _ 2.3_ 144 _ 099 _ Bonus 36.8mm (Newport Furnace)

    Post edited by esposito on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Just want to clarify on this months bonus question. Is it the highest total monthly rainfall and the station that would be reporting it? Thank you? I think Normal should be 114.9mm at Valentia but 2 years ago it was 297 at Athenry.



  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ________ 15.4 _ 28.4 _ 2.5 _ 117 _ 115 _ 135.3 Athenry Malin Head Mace Head



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 ________ 14.9 _ 26.4 _ 0.9 _ 110 _ 090 _ 38.4 Newport Furnace

    Post edited by Artane2002 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 ____ 15.6 _ 27.5 _ 2.6 _ 95_ 090 _ 65.5 (valentia)



  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 ____ 15.2 _ 25.5 _ 5.0 _ 95 _ 115 _ 45.0 (Mullingar)

    Post edited by DOCARCH on


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Just re-reading it Jpmarn here and given he says 'date not required', I think MT meant highest DAILY rainfall total which in fairness he should have had to not result in confusion here. I see many posts here thought it was month too (including myself originally) unless they're anticipating a record breaking August deluge!

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    In case a single day is meant in the bonus question then I have to change to

    waterways ________ 15.4 _ 28.4 _ 2.5 _ 117 _ 115 _ 135.3 Mace Head 52.5 Cork



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels 14.4_ 25.3 _ 1.4_ 122 _ 080 _ 166.44 Newport Furnace



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,611 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Appledrop 14.4_25.2_1.8_130%_78%-50mm Newport Furnace.

    M.T I think you mean highest daily total and that's what I've gone for but if it's the overall monthly total I want to increase mine. Thanks.



  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner_____15.3_____25_____2.1_____90_____110_____55 Valentia



  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ______ 15.5 _ 27.3 _ 3.3 _ 98 _ 95 _ 47.5 Malin



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa ____ 15.1 _ 29.4 _ 2.2 _ 186 _ 089 _ 190 Belmullet



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,189 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Okay, looks like I have screwed up the bonus question, I meant to have it refer to the 24hour maximum but it doesn't say that, so some forecasters have posted monthly totals, others probably thought I meant daily totals.

    What we will need to do then is allow anyone who posted a monthly total to offer a daily maximum by end of the 3rd, no penalty. I will contract anyone who does not appear to have done so by end of the 1st.

    Sorry about that, it may have nothing to do with the oversight but I have been facing weeks and weeks of awful heat and occasionally noxious smoke haze here and it seems to be affecting my mental functioning slightly as I've wrong-posted three things that I know about in the past month (and if there was one thing I could usually rely on, it was accurate posting by and large).

    So if you have time left to edit a monthly amount that you submitted, just edit your post, if that time has run out, add a new forecast for the highest 24h amount and location.

    My apologies for not catching this earlier, I tend to let this thread ride until the deadline then see how it's going.

    If anyone thinks their daily-rainfall guess might be taken as a monthly instead, just edit in "bonus okay" or something like that. This does give anyone a two-day time window to edit a daily guess, I have not paid much attention to how the first three days look for candidate amounts as my last thought about that was, not likely to be a factor.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ________ 15.9 _ 27.5 _ 2.5 _ 125 _ 95 _ 55.0 (Valentia)



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,195 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Can't edit anymore but mine is a daily total.



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,103 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    I had in monthly total....edited to daily.

    I think there is 24hr limit on editing?

    If people want to reply, with revised daily figure, I can edit their posts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    It won't let me edit.

    So, changing my forecast from monthly total to maximum daily total, it should now read 46mm at Newport Furnace.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 747 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610 14.9 _ 26.2 _ 1.8 _ 120 _ 085 _ 51.4 Cork



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