August 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, or Irish mean temperature, the average for five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon). The 1981-2010 average was 15.1 C.
2. Predict the MAX, highest temperature at any of the regular reporting locations in the "yesterday's weather" section of the met.ie website.
3. Predict the MIN, lowest temperature at any of the regular reporting locations in the "yesterday's weather" section of the met/ie wensite.
4. Predict the PRC, the amount of rainfall compared to normal in percentage terms, for eleven locations -- the five used for the IMT, plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Cork. Johnstown Castle, and Valentia.
5. Predict the SUN, the amount of sunshine hours compared to normal in percentage terms, for six locations -- Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia.
6. BONUS -- Predict the maximum rainfall amount for the month at any of the regular locations, amount and location (date not required).

My predictions and NormaL ...

M.T. Cranium ____ 14.9 _ 26.0 _ 1.5 _ 120 _ 090 _ 55.5 (Cork)

NormaL ________ 15.1 _ 27.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 _ 40.0 (location by climatology)

With the new Boards format and possible delays in reconnection, I will take a wait and see approach to later penalties, but expect some deductions if you aren't in by 0900h Sunday 1st of August.

Gonzo

Gonzo ____ 14.6 _ 25.3 _ 1.2_ 135 _ 082 _ 28.0mm (Dunsany)

pauldry

Pauldry ____ 14.3_ 26.3 _ 1.1_ 155 _ 081 _ 50 (Newport Furnace)

SleetAndSnow

SleetAndSnow ____ 14.5 _ 25.1 _ 1.4 _ 138 _ 085 _ 60.5 (Cork)

Gaoth Laidir

Gaoth Laidir____15.0 _ 25.3 _ -1.5 _ 115 _ 97 _ 72.0 (Claremorris).

Joe Public

Joe Public ____ 15.4 _ 29.5 _ 2.5 _ 90 _ 120 _ 65.2 (Finner)

Bsal

Bsal ________ 14.8 _ 24.9 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 91 _ 85 (Shannon Airport)

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 15.0 ___ 26.0 ___ 2.0 ___ 105 ___ 90 ___ 46 Newport Furnace.

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ____ 14.8 _ 26.8 _ 2.1 _ 115 _ 092 _ 7.5 (Belmullet)

WesternStorm

WesternStorm ____ 15.6 _ 27.5 _ 2.3 _ 090 _ 110 _ 48 (Knock Airport)

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall___15.6__27.1___2.3___84__118__38 21mm Shannon

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ____ 14.7 _ 25.1 _ 2.1 _ 115 _ 090 _ 32 (Claremorris)

esposito

Esposito ____ 14.8_ 27.3 _ 2.3_ 144 _ 099 _ Bonus 36.8mm (Newport Furnace)

Jpmarn

Just want to clarify on this months bonus question. Is it the highest total monthly rainfall and the station that would be reporting it? Thank you? I think Normal should be 114.9mm at Valentia but 2 years ago it was 297 at Athenry.

waterways

waterways ________ 15.4 _ 28.4 _ 2.5 _ 117 _ 115 _ 135.3 Athenry Malin Head Mace Head

Artane2002

Artane2002 ________ 14.9 _ 26.4 _ 0.9 _ 110 _ 090 _ 38.4 Newport Furnace

sunflower3

Sunflower3 ____ 15.6 _ 27.5 _ 2.6 _ 95_ 090 _ 65.5 (valentia)

dasa29

Dasa29 ____ 15.2 _ 25.5 _ 5.0 _ 95 _ 115 _ 45.0 (Mullingar)

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117686830#Comment_117686830

Just re-reading it Jpmarn here and given he says 'date not required', I think MT meant highest DAILY rainfall total which in fairness he should have had to not result in confusion here. I see many posts here thought it was month too (including myself originally) unless they're anticipating a record breaking August deluge!

waterways

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117687217#Comment_117687217

In case a single day is meant in the bonus question then I have to change to

waterways ________ 15.4 _ 28.4 _ 2.5 _ 117 _ 115 _ 135.3 Mace Head 52.5 Cork

200motels

200motels 14.4_ 25.3 _ 1.4_ 122 _ 080 _ 166.44 Newport Furnace

appledrop

Appledrop 14.4_25.2_1.8_130%_78%-50mm Newport Furnace.

M.T I think you mean highest daily total and that's what I've gone for but if it's the overall monthly total I want to increase mine. Thanks.

mrskinner

Skinner_____15.3_____25_____2.1_____90_____110_____55 Valentia

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ______ 15.5 _ 27.3 _ 3.3 _ 98 _ 95 _ 47.5 Malin

dacogawa

Dacogawa ____ 15.1 _ 29.4 _ 2.2 _ 186 _ 089 _ 190 Belmullet

M.T. Cranium

Okay, looks like I have screwed up the bonus question, I meant to have it refer to the 24hour maximum but it doesn't say that, so some forecasters have posted monthly totals, others probably thought I meant daily totals.

What we will need to do then is allow anyone who posted a monthly total to offer a daily maximum by end of the 3rd, no penalty. I will contract anyone who does not appear to have done so by end of the 1st.

Sorry about that, it may have nothing to do with the oversight but I have been facing weeks and weeks of awful heat and occasionally noxious smoke haze here and it seems to be affecting my mental functioning slightly as I've wrong-posted three things that I know about in the past month (and if there was one thing I could usually rely on, it was accurate posting by and large).

So if you have time left to edit a monthly amount that you submitted, just edit your post, if that time has run out, add a new forecast for the highest 24h amount and location.

My apologies for not catching this earlier, I tend to let this thread ride until the deadline then see how it's going.

If anyone thinks their daily-rainfall guess might be taken as a monthly instead, just edit in "bonus okay" or something like that. This does give anyone a two-day time window to edit a daily guess, I have not paid much attention to how the first three days look for candidate amounts as my last thought about that was, not likely to be a factor.

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ________ 15.9 _ 27.5 _ 2.5 _ 125 _ 95 _ 55.0 (Valentia)

Gaoth Laidir

Can't edit anymore but mine is a daily total.

DOCARCH

I had in monthly total....edited to daily.

I think there is 24hr limit on editing?

If people want to reply, with revised daily figure, I can edit their posts.

kindredspirit

It won't let me edit.

So, changing my forecast from monthly total to maximum daily total, it should now read 46mm at Newport Furnace.

adam240610

Adam240610 14.9 _ 26.2 _ 1.8 _ 120 _ 085 _ 51.4 Cork

John mac

johnmac____ 14.9 _ 26.9 _ 2.5 _ 110 _ 098 _ 49.8 (Newport)

dasa29

I cant edit my post so here it is with a daily total

Dasa29 ____ 15.2 _ 25.5 _ 5.0 _ 95 _ 115 _ 45.0 (Mullingar)

Also Gaoth Laidir I think you are missing something in your forecast, either PRC or the SUN.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117690866#Comment_117690866

You're dead right, thanks! I had left out the PRC rainfall figure.

Here is my corrected entry

Gaoth Laidir____15.0 _ 25.3 _ -1.5 _ 115 _ 97 _ 72.0 (Claremorris).

pauldry

Change me to 50mm Newport

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117692431#Comment_117692431

Ah here pauldry don't be copying me😄

Tae laidir

Knock Airport streaks into the lead with 0.2mm after Day 1.

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117696692#Comment_117696692

Wow can't see that being beaten😉

pauldry

If yr.no is to be believed next Friday will be a very wet day in Sligo. 57mm they say. Could be a typo and they mean 5.7mm but still it could be a day that sets a marker for the contest or Thursday coming.

M.T. Cranium

So I am just looking through the entries and will contact one or two people later today to find out if they want a lower value than what may be monthly scale predictions but it looks like many caught the comments about it and changed their forecasts, or confirmed that they were okay anyway.

As to that 57.3 mm that could be real since the GFS was also showing some local amounts in the 30-40 mm range in the Ulster-Connacht border regions.

Since I'm allowing people to change forecasts, anyone can do so until I produce the table of forecasts, but try to use a fair play principle (if the new info changes your mind, maybe stick with the old call). Anyone who doesn't revise a monthly by end of today is pretty much stuck with their monthly number but who knows that could be a good thing.

M.T. Cranium

So the two remaining forecasts that look sort of monthly scale to me are from dacogawa and waterways, and I sent them messages about it.

I hope to have the table of forecasts up by this evening then.

Tae laidir

Markee Castle comes up on the blind side with a 21.7.

pauldry

Yes and only 6mm in Sligo less than 10km away.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for August 2021

FORECASTER ____ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max 24h rain, loc'n

Jpmarn _________15.9 _ 27.5 _ 2.5 _ 125 _ 095 __ 55.0 Valentia

WesternStorm ___ 15.6 _ 27.5 _ 2.3 _ 090 _ 110 __ 48.0 Knock

Sunflower3 ______15.6 _ 27.5 _ 2.6 _ 095 _ 090 __ 65.5 Valentia

Mr stonewall _____15.6 _ 27.1 _ 2.3 _ 084 _ 118 __ 21.0 Shannon

Tae laidir _______ 15.5 _ 27.3 _ 3.3 _ 098 _ 095 __ 47.5 Malin

Joe Public _______15.4 _ 29.5 _ 2.5 _ 090 _ 120 __ 65.2 Finner

waterways ______ 15.4 _ 28.4 _ 2.5 _ 117 _ 115 __ 52.5 Cork

MrSkinner _______15.3 _ 25.0 _ 2.1 _ 090 _ 110 __ 55.0 Valentia

Dasa29 _________15.2 _ 25.5 _ 5.0 _ 095 _ 115 __ 45.0 Mullingar

Dacogawa _______15.1 _ 29.4 _ 2.2 _ 186 _ 089 __ 190 Belmullet

___ NormaL _____15.1 _ 27.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 40.0 (location by climatology)

Kindred Spirit ___ 15.0 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 105 _ 090 __ 46.0 Newport

Gaoth Laidir _____15.0 _ 25.3 _-1.5 _ 115 _ 097 __ 72.0 Claremorris

___ Con sensus __15.0 _ 26.3 _ 2.1 _ 115 _ 090 __ 50.0

Artane2002 _____ 14.9 _ 26.4 _ 0.9 _ 110 _ 090 __ 38.4 Newport

Adam240610 ____ 14.9 _ 26.2 _ 1.8 _ 120 _ 085 __ 51.4 Cork

M.T. Cranium ____ 14.9 _ 26.0 _ 1.5 _ 120 _ 090 __ 55.5 Cork

Esposito ________ 14.8 _ 27.3 _ 2.3 _ 144 _ 099 __ 36.8 Newport

DOCARCH _______14.8 _ 26.8 _ 2.1 _ 115 _ 092 ___ 7.5 Belmullet

Bsal ___________ 14.8 _ 24.9 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 091 __ 38.0 Knock

sryanbruen ______14.7 _ 25.1 _ 2.1 _ 115 _ 090 __ 32.0 Claremorris

Gonzo __________14.6 _ 25.3 _ 1.2 _ 135 _ 082 __ 28.0 Dunsany

SleetAndSnow ___ 14.5 _ 25.1 _ 1.4 _ 138 _ 085 __ 60.5 Cork

200motels ______ 14.4 _ 25.3 _ 1.4 _ 122 _ 080 __ 166.44 Newport

Appledrop _______14.4 _ 25.2 _ 1.8 _ 130 _ 078 __ 50.0 Newport

Pauldry _________14.3 _ 26.3 _ 1.1 _ 155 _ 081 __ 50.0 Newport

______________________________________________

My earlier comment about who might need to revise down to daily rainfall was partly in error because I noted that waterways had changed that amount in a later post, so it was actually dacogawa and 200motels who might need to change their numbers. One or two others look a bit high when compared to the PRC forecast but not so much that I felt sure about it. ... so those two have a bit of time left to submit a revision. At the moment, 24 forecasts have this spread for locations of max 24h rainfall ... this is slightly revised as bsal took up my offer to reduce his estimate and changed to Knock. I'm wondering if 200motels meant 166 if monthly, 44 if daily with the entry shown, some of our contest people only show up once a month to enter contests so I am not sure if I am going to hear back (same goes for dacogawa who was very certainly thinking monthly).

Newport ____ 6 (Con sensus scores 3 if correct)

Cork _______ 4 (Con sensus scores 3 if correct)

Valentia ____ 3 (Con sensus scores 2 if correct)

Shannon ____2 (Con sensus scores 2 if correct)

Belmullet ___ 2 (Con sensus scores 2 if correct)

Claremorris __2 (Con sensus scores 2 if correct)

Knock ______ 2 (Con sensus scores 2 if correct)

The following had one selection each (Con Sensus scores 1 if any are the max)

Finner, Dunsany, Mullingar, Malin Head

pauldry

Funny so many of us picked Newport when it can pee rain in thunderstorms anywhere

Tae laidir

Connacht (Mayo) 12

Munster 9

Leinster 2

Ulster 2

Will Mayo pull off the double?

appledrop

Newport does get a lot of rain in August, but I remember picking it last year + I don't think it even ended up on running as Cork or Valentia I think ended up winning.

pauldry

Today will set a marker. Most likely in the West or Northwest.

Tae laidir

Casement 22.7 yesterday

pauldry

Tae thats temperature so a new max so far.

Surely we will beat that.

appledrop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117708554#Comment_117708554

Too right, it's like a winters day here in Dublin. Will be interesting to see where max rain falls today.