FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

The GFS 6z is now showing signs of the weather becoming dryer and less unsettled towards next weekend and beyond. It does appear once we get past next Wednesday we will have a drying trend, although it never looks completely settled either. Temperatures are also likely to rise again once we get this cool spell out of the way after mid week.




After next weekend the GFS has a go at getting high pressure back over us.



If we do get high pressure we could get some interruptions from low pressure towards the northern half of the country with southern areas looking dryer and warmer throughout.



We end the run with another ridge trying to get going so it looks like a bit of a mixed bag, some warm or very warm spells mixed in with cooler and slightly more unsettled interludes particularly in northern areas.



Overall expect a bit of a cooldown over the next few days. The first half of the coming week looks cool and unsettled but once we get that out of the way we should turn less unsettled and temperatures will begin to lift again. We may get some short lived spells of high pressure with better chances of warm and sunny weather in the southern half of the country, cooler and more unsettled towards the north.

The ECM is fairly similar too with heights rising over the southern half of Ireland towards next weekend, looks a bit flimsy as those lows over the north Atlantic could come further south than what is shown on the models.





Definitely some hope of an improvement in the weather and the temperatures from next weekend but I wouldn't bank on high pressure taking hold for very long.

batistuta9 wrote: »

Are all those charts posted dynamically updating gonzo?

yep unfortunately they change when the models update.

The Bank Holiday weekend is at the very extended range and only goes as far as 6am on Monday 2nd of August so very unreliable.

By then the current very warm spell will be well and truly over. The warm spell is likely to end next Thursday or Friday. It will be replaced with a more unsettled theme with the Atlantic trying it's best to get going again, however it looks like the Atlantic may have a bit of a battle on it's hands as warmth may try to get going again. The final week of July looks mostly average temperatures generally in the 17 to 20C range. This far out it is a bit unclear how much rain or showers we will see but it is likely to be wet at times.

There are signs of things warming up again for the August bank holiday weekend but at this stage it looks alot more flimsy and unlikely to be as warm as the current warm spell, but this is deep out on FI so highly unreliable.

The other models the ECM and GEM do not go as far as the August Bank holiday weekend.

GEM goes as far as Tuesday 27th of July and the GEM is keeping Ireland warm to hot right up to the 240 hour mark. The GEM keeps the Atlantic low just to our south missing Ireland completely next weekend and keeps the warmth going into the following week.

ECM brings the low pressure into Ireland next Saturday but it genearlly stays warm right up to it's end at 240 hours also.

If the GEM ends up verifying this could well finish up a substantially warmer than average July and with the warmer than average June already in the bag this could end up being a very warm overall summer even if August deteriorates.

The final week of July is likely to have a cooling trend with weather turning more unsettled. This is a fairly tough week to forecast because what happens this weekend could have a big impact on what happens for final week of July. At the moment it looks like the low will move up from bay of Biscay introducing cooler weather and more unsettled weather this weekend, however the exact position of this low is yet to be determined.

At the moment it looks as if this low will affect England and Wales more so than Ireland. If we miss out on this low pressure there is a chance it may just stay dry throughout the weekend and into the early part of next week. Temperatures will lower as the air will be fresher but it could still be fairly warm, high teens to low twenties during the final week of July.

At the moment temperatures look fairly decent up to the 27th of July but it is difficult right now to determine how much rain or showers will we get. The final days of July appear to turn cooler again and more unsettled with more of an Atlantic influence taking hold of our weather but that is extended range of FI and unreliable. Perhaps by early next week we shall know much more about how the final week of July is shaping up.

yep, things do look like they will improve after this weekend at least in terms of temperatures. Once we get this cool pool out of the way temperatures should be back into the high teens to low twenties next week and there may be several attempts by the azores to ridge in over the next few weeks. Southern and eastern areas look like they will fair best over the next two weeks with less in the way of rainfall and slightly warmer temperatures as winds may go south-westerly during first week of August. We will probably need another 4 or 5 days of model watching before something much more settled and warmer shows up on the charts.

latest GFS 12z looks very good, looks like 2 warm events divided by a day or two of average temperatures. The Second one if verified could be as hot or hotter than the recent heatwave with hot winds dragging up from central Europe and very little sea track, however this portion of the GFS run towards the final frame is a bit of an outlier.

Definite warming trend now appearing on the GFS ensembles, although todays 12z is a bit of a cold outlier at times. Hopefully more of the runs come onboard with this warming trend from August 10th.

ECM is still unsettled and cool.

GEM starting to come onboard.