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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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  • There are tentative signs of an aam rise, changes in Pacific pressure, this should lead to a more settled outlook for NW Europe, but will only take effect in around 10-14 days time, so I reckon we should see decent weather for the second half of July, just have to get through this unsettled spell over the next week or so...

    That ties in with ME's long range forecast and my trip to Dingle so hope it is right!!




  • The GFS 6z is now showing signs of the weather becoming dryer and less unsettled towards next weekend and beyond. It does appear once we get past next Wednesday we will have a drying trend, although it never looks completely settled either. Temperatures are also likely to rise again once we get this cool spell out of the way after mid week.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2021-07-03&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1


    After next weekend the GFS has a go at getting high pressure back over us.

    GFSOPEU06_204_1.png

    If we do get high pressure we could get some interruptions from low pressure towards the northern half of the country with southern areas looking dryer and warmer throughout.

    GFSOPEU06_300_1.png

    We end the run with another ridge trying to get going so it looks like a bit of a mixed bag, some warm or very warm spells mixed in with cooler and slightly more unsettled interludes particularly in northern areas.

    GFSOPEU06_384_1.png

    Overall expect a bit of a cooldown over the next few days. The first half of the coming week looks cool and unsettled but once we get that out of the way we should turn less unsettled and temperatures will begin to lift again. We may get some short lived spells of high pressure with better chances of warm and sunny weather in the southern half of the country, cooler and more unsettled towards the north.

    The ECM is fairly similar too with heights rising over the southern half of Ireland towards next weekend, looks a bit flimsy as those lows over the north Atlantic could come further south than what is shown on the models.

    ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

    GEMOPEU00_240_1.png

    Definitely some hope of an improvement in the weather and the temperatures from next weekend but I wouldn't bank on high pressure taking hold for very long.




  • Are all those charts posted dynamically updating gonzo?




  • batistuta9 wrote: »
    Are all those charts posted dynamically updating gonzo?

    yep unfortunately they change when the models update.




  • Gonzo wrote: »
    yep unfortunately they change when the models update.

    It's OK for you guys that can read them, not so good if you're trying to match the text to chart & it's updated. Must look into how to understand them better.


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  • batistuta9 wrote: »
    It's OK for you guys that can read them, not so good if you're trying to match the text to chart & it's updated. Must look into how to understand them better.
    best advice
    I can give is to Google what you can't figure out on the charts and come back and study them then .the charts do change on a daily basis weather fronts moving around H/P L/P . Ireland doesn't get H/P much so when it does you will notice Ireland will then have a red shaded colour over the zone or sometimes a slightly lighter colour .but green shade colour never a good sign .
    But Google for help is best advice anyway

    Yours sincerely Shepards Delight




  • I know we can't know for sure but could someone tell me what the charts are showing for the August weekend?





  • Hi Gonzo,

    What would your thoughts be on forecast for greater Donegal area next week 24th-30th?

    What im seeing it might hold drier than i was expecting.



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  • yep, things do look like they will improve after this weekend at least in terms of temperatures. Once we get this cool pool out of the way temperatures should be back into the high teens to low twenties next week and there may be several attempts by the azores to ridge in over the next few weeks. Southern and eastern areas look like they will fair best over the next two weeks with less in the way of rainfall and slightly warmer temperatures as winds may go south-westerly during first week of August. We will probably need another 4 or 5 days of model watching before something much more settled and warmer shows up on the charts.





  • Has England had a very bad summer? London seems desperately wet. Anything I watched from there with the exception of last week had rain, Ascot, many Euro games, and now yesterday's flooding.





  • Yes London and most of England have had a desperate Summer and cold too

    Northern England has fared a little better.





  • I'm curious, I know that maximum temperatures tend to lag behin the summer solstice (giving us a more prolonged period for potential warm weather this side of it than before it) but generally speaking, how do the maximum temperatures evolve over the course of the summer? For example, if we had a high pressure system equivalent in shape and pressure to that which provided us with the July heatwave just gone, but centred over us exactly one month later in the second last week of August, what kind of temperatures could we expect from it vs the 20-25c we get with such systems in July? And how about the same thing again but one month later, in mid-late September?


    I'm aware that this is influenced by factors other than merely the time of year, such as SSTs and so on, but just wondering if there's a general ballpark. At what time of the year, all other factors being equal, does a high pressure system centred over the country bring the highest potential temperatures?





  • The major factors in determining the temperature in a heatwave are the intensity and duration of sunshine, the number of consecutive days of this sunshine, ground moisture and SST. Looking at the historical climatic temperature curve for the year shows the peak is arrived at around the latter part of July. Sunshine hours are on a slight decline but are offset by cumulative ground heating and drying and warming SST. The jet stream is also nearing its most northerly departure and warm influences from the near continent can still take place. The absolute highest temperatures for Ireland have been

    JULY: 32.3 (2006)

    AUGUST: 31.5 (1995)

    SEPTEMBER: 29.1 (1906)

    OCTOBER: 25.2 (1908)





  • Nothing too exiting on the horizon, Lp dominated and on the cooler side, quite a wet outlook, hopefully the model predictions will scale back a bit. The Jet in general taking a more Southerly route below Ireland.

    EDIT: Site wont play Gif's , uploading charts in small format, cant delete pics?? I am going to notify admin.








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  • We're not quiet there yet with the ECM, it shows ridging possible at the very end of it's run but there is still an area of low pressure very close to Ireland bringing rain on the final frame.

    GFS does look good but the 6z isn't as good as the 00z and tries to break down the high before the end of it's run, but still it gives 3 or 4 fairly decent days.

    I would like to see the GFS sticking to it's guns with high pressure over the next week and in another few days hopefully the ECM and GEM will show this trend as well. We will know for sure later in the week towards next weekend.





  • Was thinking the same, currently showing small modest rises in temperatures perhaps for a couple of days but just into the low 20's but Lp always nearby so nothing clear and no great confidence in the charts only that they are mixed and leaning towards being wet and temps about or a bit below average I think.





  • Another cracking 12z gfs, haven't seen 18z yet....





  • Day 10 GFS excellent again, start of an extended warm spell. Day 10 of ECM not as good but trending well





  • Looking at charts August looks like this week 1 mixed and wet week 2 drier and warmer from day 10 week 3 very warm but not 30.8c like recent maybe 27c week 4 breakdown and cooler






  • Some transient ridging at best with a few warmer days getting into the low 20's for some next week, rain from Lp's never far away, probably a few frontal rain spells but should have good dry spells also, maybe a bit cloudy overall, have to look well into FI for warmer weather from the GFS, GFS better than the ECM out around +200hrs on and it is predominantly Hp from there to the end of the run to +384 hrs but wouldn't bet my weekly wage on it. Will be watching with interest to see if a warm trend builds.





  • I think we need another 4 to 5 days before we may see something more reliable appear across all models. ECM is still too unsettled for my liking right up to 240 hours, similar with the GEM. GFS 6z has dialed back on the warmth a bit compared to recent runs but still gets there with some high pressure at least but temperatures on latest run not exactly exciting. The signals for improvement are alot better than the cloudy, damp and relatively cool muck we are getting at the moment.



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