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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2021 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally long range +T120 onward for Summer 2021.

If your post does not specifically relate to a Fantasy Island chart (extended long range charts) then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved or deleted.

Thanks

After a chilly Spring how is the beginning of Summer 2021 shaping up? It's been unseasonably chilly up to a few days ago with temperatures struggling to reach 11 or 12C over the past 2 months and single digits much of the time. Over the past few days we have seen a big increase in temperatures to slightly above normal values and the first spell of early summer weather.

The current warm and dry interlude is not going to last long. The Atlantic is already trying to break this down and it will become increasingly unsetted as this week progresses, starting with western areas from tomorrow and all areas becoming unsettled from Wednesday, however rainfall totals look fairly low overall. Temperatures from midweek will lower back to average values and this will continue into the weekend.

However once we get past this weekend, we do appear to be on a warming trend once again with signals that temperatures could lift up and take off at some stage later next week.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2021-05-31&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2021-05-31&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

Overall the first half of June is looking on the warm side and there is the chance we could tap into a very warm spell at some point either later next week or the following week. June could well turn out to be a dryer month than May and it will certainly be much milder than the very cold May.

A bit of a battleground scenario this weekend between the Atlantic doing it's best to try and break through, and a big area of high pressure over Scandinavia. This will result in average temperatures, a fair deal of cloud and some showers this weekend. Temperatures generally between 14 and 18C over the weekend.

From next Sunday/Monday temperatures will begin to rise once again, possibly reaching 19 or 20C in many places. We will still be in this battleground scenario with cooler Atlantic air trying to take hold while warmth begins to build to our east.

Bank holiday Monday looks fairly mild with temperatures in the high teens, possibly 20 or 21C in places and it will be mostly dry but there could be some showers about as well.

By this stage we are well into the unreliable time frame, it appears as the cooler and more unsettled conditions will sit in the Atlantic and the warmth from the continent will edge in over Ireland as the week progresses.

Temperatures will be high teens to low 20s, particularly in the eastern half of the country with warmer air taking over.

The weekend of 12th/13th June could see temperatures lifting up to the mid 20s in many areas particularly if there are good spells of sunshine.

We finish up with an increasingly unstable setup and possibly very warm with temperatures possibly getting up to 25 or 26C but an increasing risk of a thundery breakdown.

Low pressure with some thunderstorm actiivty may begin to break down this warm spell allowing cooler conditions into the second half of June but this is a long way off.

Current precipitation forcast looks like normal rainfall values in more western areas, particularly coastal areas more prone to Atlantic breaking through. Eastern areas may not see much in the way of rain over the next 10 days with only small amounts of rainfall over the next 7 to 10 days.

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almostthere12

scouserstation wrote: »

There are tentative signs of an aam rise, changes in Pacific pressure, this should lead to a more settled outlook for NW Europe, but will only take effect in around 10-14 days time, so I reckon we should see decent weather for the second half of July, just have to get through this unsettled spell over the next week or so...

That ties in with ME's long range forecast and my trip to Dingle so hope it is right!!

Gonzo

The GFS 6z is now showing signs of the weather becoming dryer and less unsettled towards next weekend and beyond. It does appear once we get past next Wednesday we will have a drying trend, although it never looks completely settled either. Temperatures are also likely to rise again once we get this cool spell out of the way after mid week.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2021-07-03&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2021-07-03&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

After next weekend the GFS has a go at getting high pressure back over us.

If we do get high pressure we could get some interruptions from low pressure towards the northern half of the country with southern areas looking dryer and warmer throughout.

We end the run with another ridge trying to get going so it looks like a bit of a mixed bag, some warm or very warm spells mixed in with cooler and slightly more unsettled interludes particularly in northern areas.

Overall expect a bit of a cooldown over the next few days. The first half of the coming week looks cool and unsettled but once we get that out of the way we should turn less unsettled and temperatures will begin to lift again. We may get some short lived spells of high pressure with better chances of warm and sunny weather in the southern half of the country, cooler and more unsettled towards the north.

The ECM is fairly similar too with heights rising over the southern half of Ireland towards next weekend, looks a bit flimsy as those lows over the north Atlantic could come further south than what is shown on the models.

Definitely some hope of an improvement in the weather and the temperatures from next weekend but I wouldn't bank on high pressure taking hold for very long.

batistuta9

Are all those charts posted dynamically updating gonzo?

Gonzo

batistuta9 wrote: »

Are all those charts posted dynamically updating gonzo?

yep unfortunately they change when the models update.

batistuta9

Gonzo wrote: »

yep unfortunately they change when the models update.

It's OK for you guys that can read them, not so good if you're trying to match the text to chart & it's updated. Must look into how to understand them better.

Shepards Delight

batistuta9 wrote: »

It's OK for you guys that can read them, not so good if you're trying to match the text to chart & it's updated. Must look into how to understand them better.

best advice
I can give is to Google what you can't figure out on the charts and come back and study them then .the charts do change on a daily basis weather fronts moving around H/P L/P . Ireland doesn't get H/P much so when it does you will notice Ireland will then have a red shaded colour over the zone or sometimes a slightly lighter colour .but green shade colour never a good sign .
But Google for help is best advice anyway

Yours sincerely Shepards Delight

Sammy2012

I know we can't know for sure but could someone tell me what the charts are showing for the August weekend?

Gonzo

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117623106#Comment_117623106

The Bank Holiday weekend is at the very extended range and only goes as far as 6am on Monday 2nd of August so very unreliable.

By then the current very warm spell will be well and truly over. The warm spell is likely to end next Thursday or Friday. It will be replaced with a more unsettled theme with the Atlantic trying it's best to get going again, however it looks like the Atlantic may have a bit of a battle on it's hands as warmth may try to get going again. The final week of July looks mostly average temperatures generally in the 17 to 20C range. This far out it is a bit unclear how much rain or showers we will see but it is likely to be wet at times.

There are signs of things warming up again for the August bank holiday weekend but at this stage it looks alot more flimsy and unlikely to be as warm as the current warm spell, but this is deep out on FI so highly unreliable.

The other models the ECM and GEM do not go as far as the August Bank holiday weekend.

GEM goes as far as Tuesday 27th of July and the GEM is keeping Ireland warm to hot right up to the 240 hour mark. The GEM keeps the Atlantic low just to our south missing Ireland completely next weekend and keeps the warmth going into the following week.

ECM brings the low pressure into Ireland next Saturday but it genearlly stays warm right up to it's end at 240 hours also.

If the GEM ends up verifying this could well finish up a substantially warmer than average July and with the warmer than average June already in the bag this could end up being a very warm overall summer even if August deteriorates.

bazlers

Hi Gonzo,

What would your thoughts be on forecast for greater Donegal area next week 24th-30th?

What im seeing it might hold drier than i was expecting.

Gonzo

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117630794#Comment_117630794

The final week of July is likely to have a cooling trend with weather turning more unsettled. This is a fairly tough week to forecast because what happens this weekend could have a big impact on what happens for final week of July. At the moment it looks like the low will move up from bay of Biscay introducing cooler weather and more unsettled weather this weekend, however the exact position of this low is yet to be determined.

At the moment it looks as if this low will affect England and Wales more so than Ireland. If we miss out on this low pressure there is a chance it may just stay dry throughout the weekend and into the early part of next week. Temperatures will lower as the air will be fresher but it could still be fairly warm, high teens to low twenties during the final week of July.

At the moment temperatures look fairly decent up to the 27th of July but it is difficult right now to determine how much rain or showers will we get. The final days of July appear to turn cooler again and more unsettled with more of an Atlantic influence taking hold of our weather but that is extended range of FI and unreliable. Perhaps by early next week we shall know much more about how the final week of July is shaping up.

Rebelbrowser

Just to reignite this thread, some decent straws in the wind in the 6z GFS for a build up of High Pressure for the second week in August. Holidaying in Ireland that week so keeping an eye....

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117668218#Comment_117668218

yep, things do look like they will improve after this weekend at least in terms of temperatures. Once we get this cool pool out of the way temperatures should be back into the high teens to low twenties next week and there may be several attempts by the azores to ridge in over the next few weeks. Southern and eastern areas look like they will fair best over the next two weeks with less in the way of rainfall and slightly warmer temperatures as winds may go south-westerly during first week of August. We will probably need another 4 or 5 days of model watching before something much more settled and warmer shows up on the charts.

[Deleted User]

Has England had a very bad summer? London seems desperately wet. Anything I watched from there with the exception of last week had rain, Ascot, many Euro games, and now yesterday's flooding.

pauldry

Yes London and most of England have had a desperate Summer and cold too

Northern England has fared a little better.

Gonzo

London and the south-east of England has had a poor summer, worse than most of Ireland especially when their summers are normally half decent. They had a very warm and sunny start to June just like us but once mid June hit it was unsettled all the way until the start of the recent heatwave. They had temperatures similar to us mid to high twenties during the heatwave, but to them these sort of temperatures are nothing to get excited about as temperatures above 25C happen regularly throughout the summer in London and they don't really get excited until the temperature goes above 30C. The heatwave ended in London several days before it did in Ireland when cooler air took over from the north sea and now they are back into the unsettled conditions. However this time it looks like all of Ireland and England as well as much of northern Europe are now in the same boat with a fairly unsettled outlook dominating the first half of August.

hatrickpatrick

I'm curious, I know that maximum temperatures tend to lag behin the summer solstice (giving us a more prolonged period for potential warm weather this side of it than before it) but generally speaking, how do the maximum temperatures evolve over the course of the summer? For example, if we had a high pressure system equivalent in shape and pressure to that which provided us with the July heatwave just gone, but centred over us exactly one month later in the second last week of August, what kind of temperatures could we expect from it vs the 20-25c we get with such systems in July? And how about the same thing again but one month later, in mid-late September?

I'm aware that this is influenced by factors other than merely the time of year, such as SSTs and so on, but just wondering if there's a general ballpark. At what time of the year, all other factors being equal, does a high pressure system centred over the country bring the highest potential temperatures?

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117680667#Comment_117680667

The major factors in determining the temperature in a heatwave are the intensity and duration of sunshine, the number of consecutive days of this sunshine, ground moisture and SST. Looking at the historical climatic temperature curve for the year shows the peak is arrived at around the latter part of July. Sunshine hours are on a slight decline but are offset by cumulative ground heating and drying and warming SST. The jet stream is also nearing its most northerly departure and warm influences from the near continent can still take place. The absolute highest temperatures for Ireland have been

JULY: 32.3 (2006)

AUGUST: 31.5 (1995)

SEPTEMBER: 29.1 (1906)

OCTOBER: 25.2 (1908)

Meteorite58

Nothing too exiting on the horizon, Lp dominated and on the cooler side, quite a wet outlook, hopefully the model predictions will scale back a bit. The Jet in general taking a more Southerly route below Ireland.

EDIT: Site wont play Gif's , uploading charts in small format, cant delete pics?? I am going to notify admin.

Gonzo

Unfortunately the current cool and unsettled pattern we are under looks set to continue right up to mid August. The GFS is unsettled from beginning to end as well as temperatures below average for the entire run. There were some baby steps towards things settling down and warming up around second week of August but these outliers have disappeared. Temperatures generally look in the 15 to 18C range over the next 7 to 10 days at least.

GEM also very unsettled as is the ECM

Looks like no shortage of rain over the next 7 to 10 days either after a slightly dryer interlude this weekend.

The wait goes on for any signs of warmth and things settling down.

Rebelbrowser

To my untrained eye the gfs is great from about 8 August on this morning and the ECM, as far as it goes, shows a similar evolution. Looks like a very warm and settled second and third weeks of August. Apologies if I have this assways....

Gonzo

We're not quiet there yet with the ECM, it shows ridging possible at the very end of it's run but there is still an area of low pressure very close to Ireland bringing rain on the final frame.

GFS does look good but the 6z isn't as good as the 00z and tries to break down the high before the end of it's run, but still it gives 3 or 4 fairly decent days.

I would like to see the GFS sticking to it's guns with high pressure over the next week and in another few days hopefully the ECM and GEM will show this trend as well. We will know for sure later in the week towards next weekend.

Meteorite58

Was thinking the same, currently showing small modest rises in temperatures perhaps for a couple of days but just into the low 20's but Lp always nearby so nothing clear and no great confidence in the charts only that they are mixed and leaning towards being wet and temps about or a bit below average I think.

Rebelbrowser

Another cracking 12z gfs, haven't seen 18z yet....

Rebelbrowser

Day 10 GFS excellent again, start of an extended warm spell. Day 10 of ECM not as good but trending well

sryanbruen

GFS 12z run is the first one I've seen that builds up a prolonged very warm and dry pattern with northward advection of the Azores High ridging to a Scandi High and brings in a hot easterly flow giving widespread mid to high 20s again like in mid-July.

I think this has a reasonable chance given factors like the MJO in which past composites of the expected phase 8 give a Scandi High signal although reliability is loose. Models still trying to get a grasp of this I feel.

Gonzo

latest GFS 12z looks very good, looks like 2 warm events divided by a day or two of average temperatures. The Second one if verified could be as hot or hotter than the recent heatwave with hot winds dragging up from central Europe and very little sea track, however this portion of the GFS run towards the final frame is a bit of an outlier.

pauldry

Looking at charts August looks like this week 1 mixed and wet week 2 drier and warmer from day 10 week 3 very warm but not 30.8c like recent maybe 27c week 4 breakdown and cooler

Meteorite58

Some transient ridging at best with a few warmer days getting into the low 20's for some next week, rain from Lp's never far away, probably a few frontal rain spells but should have good dry spells also, maybe a bit cloudy overall, have to look well into FI for warmer weather from the GFS, GFS better than the ECM out around +200hrs on and it is predominantly Hp from there to the end of the run to +384 hrs but wouldn't bet my weekly wage on it. Will be watching with interest to see if a warm trend builds.

Gonzo

I think we need another 4 to 5 days before we may see something more reliable appear across all models. ECM is still too unsettled for my liking right up to 240 hours, similar with the GEM. GFS 6z has dialed back on the warmth a bit compared to recent runs but still gets there with some high pressure at least but temperatures on latest run not exactly exciting. The signals for improvement are alot better than the cloudy, damp and relatively cool muck we are getting at the moment.

Gonzo

Definite warming trend now appearing on the GFS ensembles, although todays 12z is a bit of a cold outlier at times. Hopefully more of the runs come onboard with this warming trend from August 10th.

ECM is still unsettled and cool.

GEM starting to come onboard.