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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Summer/Autumn 2021
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Instability tomorrow more so in the afternoon from troughs crossing the country and looks on the negatively tilted side, relatively high Theta E readings I think even though coming from the NW /W , looks to be sourced from N Europe . Temps getting up to the high teens, Dp's up around 14C. Lapse rates might be ok for thunderstorm development although might be quite isolated. Again a nice convergence along the East coasts, could we see some thunderstorms along the E in the late afternoon early evening?
Best chance midlands, SE, E and perhaps in the NE. Any thoughts ? not totally sure of this, WRF / ECM suggests some big convective showers in the SE and parts of Leinster tomorrow afternoon/ early evening. Will see what happens.
click on image
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Was in the bog Saturday afternoon. Heard a few decent rumbles. Thought it was far enough away. Next thing a massive fork lightening strike in the next field over.
We didn't wait to have the tae and sambos I tell ya!
A close lightning strike on the bog will always help expedite matters
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Very interested to hear of any reports with this cell that went over Dundalk
Nice looking hook on that feature.
Not too much in the way of lightning activity in the end, big rain though by all accounts.
Experienced static like in the tweet below years ago in Dingle of all places around 89 or 90, myself and a friend were having a right laugh standing outside watching our youthful long hair standing on end as a thunderstorm broke out. It was one of the most intense storms I was ever under, one of two times that I have experienced the smell of possible ozone from the lightning . That day a lot of cattle got killed in the fields near the house where we were staying in the countryside just outside of the town. I remember the lightning crackling and incredible gunshot like thunder.
https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1412498610181246977?s=200 -
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Could well have some activity towards next weekend with the ECM and GFS showing a gradual breakdown, could still be in the high teens low 20's with high Dp's and good heat in the ground by then. Bit away yet, will see if the models stick to this pattern.
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Some fairly high CAPE values starting to show up mid week. Lifted index of -6 and CAPE over 1000. Of course, we need to be able to tap into this - otherwise it will just go to waste. And the models can and will change of course between now and then.
I'd love a good late evening / overnight thunderstorm during this spell of hot weather. Would just top it off very nicely!
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Got a mention on the weather forecast tonight after the news that Thunderstorms possible mainly for Munster on Fri. A difficult call , the expected Low now further S, the Hp initially blocking it but it looks to send in bands of rain ( look a bit weak atm ) on the latest run according to the ECM mainly for the Southern half of the country. Charts look warmer now for the weekend also, up to the mid 20's in places. Some very high Dp's currently showing up, around 19C in the S on Fri. Will have to see the track of the Low and what kind of weather it sends in our way and will see how the Hp stands up to the Low.
Met Eireann
Friday: Warm sunshine for many on Friday but with some scattered showers or thunderstorms possible, especially across Munster where more general rain may push in during the day. Maximum temperatures of 22 to 27 degrees in moderate southeast winds.
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The heat and high Dp's especially in Connacht from around early afternoon with low level convergence giving loads of instability potential on Fri and perhaps increasing DLS towards evening in the S of the country adding maybe to late evening activity. High Theta E readings giving plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to tap into , some big PPW readings giving heavy localized rainfall with spot flooding potential. Should produce some photogenic cells .
Soundings around E Galway /Offaly border.
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Yeah they don't display all the strikes together as far as I know, here is a gif of the afternoon / early evening. A good tally in all today. Me Eireann have a good information about the The ATDnet Lightning Detection System and being optimised for detecting Cg strikes , see below
https://www.met.ie/climate/what-we-measure/lightning
Click on Pic below to enlarge if needed
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Interesting to see AROMES prediction for tomorrow , big CAPE values high temperatures and Dp's, and high Theta E advecting across Ireland from the SE to the W and later another band in the S. It is predicting some heavy localized rainfall especially towards the W but the midlands could see some big downpours also, could see a yellow warning being issued tomorrow when they see if much kicks off. Interesting the temperature prediction chart showing the temperatures drop significantly tomorrow evening as the weather goes through the W especially, I wonder could a large cell form in all that heat ?? Would think that hail is a possibility maybe even large and maybe some locally strong gusty downdrafts. Watch the last wind chart below and believe me I am no expert but wondering if it would indicate a very large intense storm forming, it looks like huge outflow as it crosses the W coast and dissipates ??
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Interesting from Dan Holley with convective Weather :
Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 23 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sat 24 Jul 2021
ISSUED 21:40 UTC Thu 22 Jul 2021
ISSUED BY: Dan
IRELAND ...
Diurnal heating of moist low-levels (dewpoints could be as high as 17-19C in places, with air temperatures once again locally exceeding 30C) will yield substantial SBCAPE, potentially >1,500 J/kg. Gradual cooling aloft and lowering heights as the main upper low over Biscay slowly approaches from the south, combined with low-level convergence and some forced ascent over high ground will all contribute to scattered thunderstorms developing from around 12-13z. These are expected to become more numerous through the afternoon and early evening as they drift gradually WNW-wards.
Profiles suggest fairly unidirectional winds with height, with some modest flow in the mid-levels contributing to marginal wind shear, but the magnitude of CAPE coupled with a marked dry layer in the mid-levels suggests some active thunderstorms are likely, with frequent lightning and the potential for large hail 2-4cm in diameter. In fact, the strongest cells may perhaps display some transient supercellular structures. Strong outflow winds could gust over 50mph locally, and substantial cold pooling may develop in western Ireland later in the afternoon resulting in several daughter cells developing in clusters nearby. Most thunderstorms will likely decay during the mid-late evening, however some may persist and/or additional cells develop across Munster perhaps even into the early hours of Saturday. Given PWAT of 30-35mm and the potential for training of cells, flash flooding will also be possible.
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