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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Summer/Autumn 2021

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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Instability tomorrow more so in the afternoon from troughs crossing the country and looks on the negatively tilted side, relatively high Theta E readings I think even though coming from the NW /W , looks to be sourced from N Europe . Temps getting up to the high teens, Dp's up around 14C. Lapse rates might be ok for thunderstorm development although might be quite isolated. Again a nice convergence along the East coasts, could we see some thunderstorms along the E in the late afternoon early evening?

    Best chance midlands, SE, E and perhaps in the NE. Any thoughts ? not totally sure of this, WRF / ECM suggests some big convective showers in the SE and parts of Leinster tomorrow afternoon/ early evening. Will see what happens.

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    click on image



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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,150 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Distant rumble in Dublin 16.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Some thunder here now in KE


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,028 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    loud bang near Newcastle after a very heavy shower

    seems to be heading towards Dublin city


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 842 ✭✭✭BullBauld


    Was in the bog Saturday afternoon. Heard a few decent rumbles. Thought it was far enough away. Next thing a massive fork lightening strike in the next field over.
    We didn't wait to have the tae and sambos I tell ya!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,181 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka


    BullBauld wrote: »
    Was in the bog Saturday afternoon. Heard a few decent rumbles. Thought it was far enough away. Next thing a massive fork lightening strike in the next field over.
    We didn't wait to have the tae and sambos I tell ya!

    A close lightning strike on the bog will always help expedite matters :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Very interested to hear of any reports with this cell that went over Dundalk

    BB0-FF61-F-F9-A9-4-CD1-940-F-A11507-E4-E0-B4.jpg


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Very interested to hear of any reports with this cell that went over Dundalk

    BB0-FF61-F-F9-A9-4-CD1-940-F-A11507-E4-E0-B4.jpg

    Nice looking hook on that feature.


    Not too much in the way of lightning activity in the end, big rain though by all accounts.



    Experienced static like in the tweet below years ago in Dingle of all places around 89 or 90, myself and a friend were having a right laugh standing outside watching our youthful long hair standing on end as a thunderstorm broke out. It was one of the most intense storms I was ever under, one of two times that I have experienced the smell of possible ozone from the lightning . That day a lot of cattle got killed in the fields near the house where we were staying in the countryside just outside of the town. I remember the lightning crackling and incredible gunshot like thunder.


    https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1412498610181246977?s=20


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,536 ✭✭✭typhoony


    once this settled period is over and the High pressure has drifted away next week I would'nt be surprised to see a period of disturbed thundery weather



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Could well have some activity towards next weekend with the ECM and GFS showing a gradual breakdown, could still be in the high teens low 20's with high Dp's and good heat in the ground by then. Bit away yet, will see if the models stick to this pattern.





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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 624 ✭✭✭glightning


    Some fairly high CAPE values starting to show up mid week. Lifted index of -6 and CAPE over 1000. Of course, we need to be able to tap into this - otherwise it will just go to waste. And the models can and will change of course between now and then.

    I'd love a good late evening / overnight thunderstorm during this spell of hot weather. Would just top it off very nicely!





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,971 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    Windy was looking soo promising for Friday earlier, most of the south showing thunderstorms. Now nothing. :(



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Got a mention on the weather forecast tonight after the news that Thunderstorms possible mainly for Munster on Fri. A difficult call , the expected Low now further S, the Hp initially blocking it but it looks to send in bands of rain ( look a bit weak atm ) on the latest run according to the ECM mainly for the Southern half of the country. Charts look warmer now for the weekend also, up to the mid 20's in places. Some very high Dp's currently showing up, around 19C in the S on Fri. Will have to see the track of the Low and what kind of weather it sends in our way and will see how the Hp stands up to the Low.

    Met Eireann

    Friday: Warm sunshine for many on Friday but with some scattered showers or thunderstorms possible, especially across Munster where more general rain may push in during the day. Maximum temperatures of 22 to 27 degrees in moderate southeast winds.





  • Registered Users Posts: 228 ✭✭Banarol


    Yeah I had a look at it earlier and I fear the worst. The low appears to be tracking a bit too far south. It’s a pity because all the other parameters are in place and a spell like this deserves a spectacular ending and not to go out with a whimper. As you say there’s plenty of time for things to change and with a bit of luck they will. F1 is showing a reload and another opportunity but that’s a question mark and there could be a gradual boring cooling instead



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,971 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    Case of watch this space. Wed 29th looks interesting but won't be holding my breath.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 624 ✭✭✭glightning


    I must say that although I love my storms, I'd rather the low stay away and for us to continue to enjoy hot sunny conditions. In fact, I'd trade having no storms for a longer warm spell rather than a shortening of the spell with a storm.

    The ideal situation would be some late afternoon / evening pulse storms that clear away to another hot day. Or, any encroaching low is delayed until next week at least!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,467 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    Hoping for some real action this time lets just wait and see



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭esposito


    Have to agree. I don't want that low anywhere near us. South England & Wales can take it😆


    I would love a "home grown" storm and as you said then clearing to very warm/hot conditions conditions once again.

    Holidays coming up in August and I just know it will be back to cool/unsettled westerlies. Prove me wrong August!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,339 ✭✭✭The One Doctor


    I sincerely believe there will be a large supercell right over my house.


    Curse this relatively hot weather, bring on the cooler temps!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,970 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Nice cell brewing up in Mayo on the radar



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,536 ✭✭✭typhoony


    only a couple hundred miles off the south coast, looks unlikely to change.



  • Registered Users Posts: 430 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    A interesting watch later this afternoon and evening as some models show good potential for isolated thunderstorms to form over the northwest of the country. Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Fermanagh, Mayo and Tyrone are the areas especially to watch this evening. Anything that does develop is likely to be slow moving giving the risk of spot flooding. Some hail also possible. The ECMWF model shows 1600 Cape in places. You would think if anything does start to develop it will be rather fast.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭Simon Gruber Says


    Watching a nice cell in NW Donegal. Its constant rumbling but all CC. If it were dark it would be like a strobe. Most active storm I've heard in this country.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Those storms look quite intense up North.

    Fri looking more widespread, some big CAPE values, the instability indexes looking high. Charts have been showing big interest for Connacht in the afternoon and parts of the Midlands, maybe the S or SE also. Will know more nearer Fri.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭Simon Gruber Says


    This is the one east of Derry



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Level: Yellow 

    Type: Thunderstorm

    Message: Localised thunderstorms today with a risk of lightning and spot flooding.

    Affected Regions: Donegal, Leitrim, Mayo, and Sligo

    Issue Time: Wednesday 21/7/2021 15:32

    Expected Onset: Wednesday 21/7/2021 15:32

    Expires: Wednesday 21/7/2021 23:00



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,898 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Friday looks like more significant thunderstorm potential for south Leinster, north Munster and Connaught through the day and well in to the night.




  • Registered Users Posts: 829 ✭✭✭DumbBrunette


    I could see it clearly from my attic window in Dublin!



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Loads of thunder in Donegal all afternoon, must have heard over a hundred rumbles since around 1pm.

    Most of them fairly distant and I was stuck on work calls most of the afternoon so couldn't get out to enjoy it but plenty of nice big cracks all the same!

    Radar was well off though, showing torrential rain over me when there was nothing more than a few drops falling



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The heat and high Dp's especially in Connacht from around early afternoon with low level convergence giving loads of instability potential on Fri and perhaps increasing DLS towards evening in the S of the country adding maybe to late evening activity. High Theta E readings giving plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to tap into , some big PPW readings giving heavy localized rainfall with spot flooding potential. Should produce some photogenic cells .


    Soundings around E Galway /Offaly border.





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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    With new boards,you need to save the gif to your phone and add it to the post as an attachment

    You can delete them from the phone after you've posted



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Can you see the Gif's ? I can see them fine.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    No

    I just see the links to them


    Edit I see them now 👍



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭Tyrone212


    @Meteorite58 If you can would you please post the map of all todays lightning strikes. I can't find it on meteologic. I think its you who usually posts it, if not nevermind. Cheers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    I was looking on lightningmaps and blitzortung earlier but they don't seem to have captures anywhere close to all the lightning today. Only showing 40 or so strikes yet there were multiple periods of constant rumbling for 5-10 minutes and sustained thunder for a good 5 hours with rarely more than a few minutes between so must have added up to well over a hundred strikes just in the vicinity of Letterkenny.

    https://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;ts=0;y=54.9522;x=-7.8797;z=9;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;ts24=1;tsc=1;



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58



    Yeah they don't display all the strikes together as far as I know, here is a gif of the afternoon / early evening. A good tally in all today. Me Eireann have a good information about the The ATDnet Lightning Detection System and being optimised for detecting Cg strikes , see below

    https://www.met.ie/climate/what-we-measure/lightning


    Click on Pic below to enlarge if needed




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭Tyrone212


    Good man. Thanks.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58



    Interesting to see AROMES prediction for tomorrow , big CAPE values high temperatures and Dp's, and high Theta E advecting across Ireland from the SE to the W and later another band in the S. It is predicting some heavy localized rainfall especially towards the W but the midlands could see some big downpours also, could see a yellow warning being issued tomorrow when they see if much kicks off. Interesting the temperature prediction chart showing the temperatures drop significantly tomorrow evening as the weather goes through the W especially, I wonder could a large cell form in all that heat ?? Would think that hail is a possibility maybe even large and maybe some locally strong gusty downdrafts. Watch the last wind chart below and believe me I am no expert but wondering if it would indicate a very large intense storm forming, it looks like huge outflow as it crosses the W coast and dissipates ??









  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Plenty Altocumulus high in the sky this evening near Arklow

    Up near 20,000ft probably



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I'm working in Mayo tomorrow. Trying to time my trip home to Limerick so I can get to see a good show on my drive back..



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Take a V route home,going well out of your way

    Head East towards Dublin,then join the motorway M7/8 South and head west again as you hit Tipperary

    If you miss a storm as you head south and then west back to limerick on that kind of route,you'll be unlucky



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,067 ✭✭✭✭fryup


    so when is it all kicking off tomorrow i'm in east-clare, what time should i expect?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Interesting from Dan Holley with convective Weather :



    Day 2 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 23 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sat 24 Jul 2021

    ISSUED 21:40 UTC Thu 22 Jul 2021

    ISSUED BY: Dan


     IRELAND ...

    Diurnal heating of moist low-levels (dewpoints could be as high as 17-19C in places, with air temperatures once again locally exceeding 30C) will yield substantial SBCAPE, potentially >1,500 J/kg. Gradual cooling aloft and lowering heights as the main upper low over Biscay slowly approaches from the south, combined with low-level convergence and some forced ascent over high ground will all contribute to scattered thunderstorms developing from around 12-13z. These are expected to become more numerous through the afternoon and early evening as they drift gradually WNW-wards.


    Profiles suggest fairly unidirectional winds with height, with some modest flow in the mid-levels contributing to marginal wind shear, but the magnitude of CAPE coupled with a marked dry layer in the mid-levels suggests some active thunderstorms are likely, with frequent lightning and the potential for large hail 2-4cm in diameter. In fact, the strongest cells may perhaps display some transient supercellular structures. Strong outflow winds could gust over 50mph locally, and substantial cold pooling may develop in western Ireland later in the afternoon resulting in several daughter cells developing in clusters nearby. Most thunderstorms will likely decay during the mid-late evening, however some may persist and/or additional cells develop across Munster perhaps even into the early hours of Saturday. Given PWAT of 30-35mm and the potential for training of cells, flash flooding will also be possible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,971 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    Some activity off the south west coast at the moment if only it would turn towards us.




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    By any account

    Thats A LOT of activity




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Looking South from here in Arklow, there's already some proper convection going on high up and some Altocumulus

    Apologies for the sideways photo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The international aviation charts have isolated embedded Cb, tops 35,000 ft, over much of Ireland at 12Z. They are completely absent on the 18Z and 00Z charts, both of which show the area well to the south of Ireland.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The area with a lot of activity currently west of Brittany contains the same description albeit at 30k feet, so 🤞



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,536 ✭✭✭typhoony


    just south-east of Galway city here so it seems i'm in the firing line, will post any photos as i have a good view looking SE over the Derrybrien Hills, hopefully these will be the high cloud tops type thunderstorms.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,868 ✭✭✭CrowdedHouse


    I'm wearing my telemeter watch but I really just want rain for my flowers 😊

    Seven Worlds will Collide



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