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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Summer/Autumn 2021

  • 30-05-2021 11:24pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 8,203 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Wednesday ECM is looking interesting for some fairly widely scattered elevated thunderstorms, with a high-Theta-E tongue moving up over the country during the late afternoon hours. K-Indices of 32-34 suggest a 70-80% probability, though soundings suggest that it won't be surface-based.

    % probability = 4 x (KI -15)

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    Post edited by DOCARCH on


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ PukkaStukka


    Interesting there's a big red blob over Dublin, but I learned before not to get my hopes up :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,327 ✭✭✭ The One Doctor


    Probably a rumble or two, that's it . We get big ones every twenty years or so


  • Registered Users Posts: 982 ✭✭✭ esposito


    Probably a rumble of two, that's it .

    And England and Wales will get loads of thunderstorms of course


  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Lots of Altocumulus today near Arklow looking towards the Irish sea
    Bodes well for a noisy tomorrow usually


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,327 ✭✭✭ The One Doctor


    Lots of Altocumulus today near Arklow looking towards the Irish sea
    Bodes well for a noisy tomorrow usually

    We had that last year and it created a supercell over the IOM. Nothing over Ireland of course.


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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,293 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    Mod Note: New thread for the season.


  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]




  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,293 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    Looks like clouds bubbling up/convection kicking off from north Cork up through the midlands. Could be some sharp showers.


  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Embedded thunderstorms mentioned on the 5 to 6pm radio forecast moving quickly up the East from the southeast tomorrow morning


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,203 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    We're now in summer and there is a slight chance of some elevated thunderstorms coming up in a high-theta-e plume from Biscay overnight, with the best chance being the southeast tomorrow morning. It's a fairly small chance, especially outside of that area, but still warrants a mention.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,583 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Radar return shows shower developing in the Nenagh area...


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,612 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Yeah nothing clear about tomorrow but it would seem that possibilities of Thunderstorm activity beginning off the SE coast, possibly some moving inland and looks like moving up along the Irish sea during Weds, how close to the coast or if they move inland remains to be seen. Nice bit of LLS and DLS showing up in the SE earlier tomorrow as the trough moves up over the country , most instability seems to be in the SE initially but will this grow the storms to mature further up the coast or inland a bit ? Lapse rates not great so not sure if much will happen ?

    Tomorrow evening / night into early Thurs morning off the SW might become active, possibly only off the coast but will see if any stray close to the coast. Shear is in abundance and Lapse rates are very good but again might just stay over the sea. Will be keeping an eye to see if Orographic lift has an influence in Kerry tomorrow night.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,612 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Charts emphasizing off the SW tomorrow night. The center of the area of Lp will be off the SW later tomorrow night.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,502 ✭✭✭ spookwoman


    Some altocumulas passing over waterford from the south

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Interesting 24hours with surely some storms cracking off!!
    Plenty warmth in the air down in Cork this evening.
    History would say yes, these biscay lows nearly always deliver...


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,203 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    I doubt we'll see any lightning from this tomorrow. Only the southeast might have a slight chance in the morning, but there just aren't the dynamics in place to force the elevated convection enough for lightning. It's a similar type of setup to the one at the end of June last year, just a lot less favourable.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,953 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    I'd be a little more confident but not by much. There'll probably be a bit of a shadow through Wicklow which didn't work out so well last time up wind. Inland southeast and hugging Irish sea coasts are the best bet.

    No active thunderstorm activity at the moment between north west France and the south coast.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,203 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Latest TAF for Waterford Airport, valid to 10 am.

    TAF EIWF 012300Z 0200/0209 06006KT 9999 FEW030
    PROB30 TEMPO 0200/0202 4000 BR
    TEMPO 0208/0209 4000 SHRA BKN010 SCT050CB=


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ PukkaStukka




  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Lightning off Pembroke now in the batch headed for wexford


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,347 ✭✭✭ RubyK


    I can hear a few rumbles in the Waterford/Kilkenny border, here in work.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ PukkaStukka


    Lightning off Pembroke now in the batch headed for wexford

    I've been watching that. The showers are loosing intensity as they cross the sea, and on SAT24, those clouds don't appear to have any significant heights in them or are showing significant signs of convection,


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,203 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Some nice surface-based thunderstorms going all afternoon over northern France. Our system just ran out of steam overnight, but at least it made for another decent day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭ PukkaStukka


    Well not only no thunder but no rain either !


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,612 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Yeah very little convective activity even in the UK. Still a chance of some activity off the SW tonight and early morning and possibly up along the coasts. Lapse rates are best here with good deep layer shear and a pronounced convergence zone with high K index readings. ECM showing the far NW with possibility of some thunderstorms also in the early morning. Tomorrow up along the W, maybe Kerry also showing the highest chance of some convective activity with Thunderstorm's possible if somewhat a low chance.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,953 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    A total dud. Ah well. That's the way the cookie crumbles.

    :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 67 ✭✭ Niall145


    Epic thunderstorm alright, think we got around two drops of light rain around lunchtime.


  • Registered Users Posts: 655 ✭✭✭ eastmayo


    There was 1 very loud clap off thunder last nite at 3 45 which has knocked the power out kilmovee in eastmayo..


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭ lolie


    eastmayo wrote: »
    There was 1 very loud clap off thunder last nite at 3 45 which has knocked the power out kilmovee in eastmayo..

    Thats probably the culprit there.
    3.35am cloud to ground strike.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,675 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Some fine showers building in Kerry and Clare, absolutely lashing here in West Clare atm


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