Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Summer/Autumn 2021

Gaoth Laidir

Wednesday ECM is looking interesting for some fairly widely scattered elevated thunderstorms, with a high-Theta-E tongue moving up over the country during the late afternoon hours. K-Indices of 32-34 suggest a 70-80% probability, though soundings suggest that it won't be surface-based.

% probability = 4 x (KI -15)

PukkaStukka

Interesting there's a big red blob over Dublin, but I learned before not to get my hopes up

The One Doctor

Probably a rumble or two, that's it . We get big ones every twenty years or so

esposito

The One Doctor wrote: »

Probably a rumble of two, that's it .

And England and Wales will get loads of thunderstorms of course

Lots of Altocumulus today near Arklow looking towards the Irish sea
Bodes well for a noisy tomorrow usually

The One Doctor

Marine Layer wrote: »

Lots of Altocumulus today near Arklow looking towards the Irish sea
Bodes well for a noisy tomorrow usually

We had that last year and it created a supercell over the IOM. Nothing over Ireland of course.

DOCARCH

Mod Note: New thread for the season.

Moving North northwest


https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1399707716663271425?s=20

DOCARCH

Looks like clouds bubbling up/convection kicking off from north Cork up through the midlands. Could be some sharp showers.

Embedded thunderstorms mentioned on the 5 to 6pm radio forecast moving quickly up the East from the southeast tomorrow morning

Gaoth Laidir

We're now in summer and there is a slight chance of some elevated thunderstorms coming up in a high-theta-e plume from Biscay overnight, with the best chance being the southeast tomorrow morning. It's a fairly small chance, especially outside of that area, but still warrants a mention.

Danno

Radar return shows shower developing in the Nenagh area...

Meteorite58

Yeah nothing clear about tomorrow but it would seem that possibilities of Thunderstorm activity beginning off the SE coast, possibly some moving inland and looks like moving up along the Irish sea during Weds, how close to the coast or if they move inland remains to be seen. Nice bit of LLS and DLS showing up in the SE earlier tomorrow as the trough moves up over the country , most instability seems to be in the SE initially but will this grow the storms to mature further up the coast or inland a bit ? Lapse rates not great so not sure if much will happen ?

Tomorrow evening / night into early Thurs morning off the SW might become active, possibly only off the coast but will see if any stray close to the coast. Shear is in abundance and Lapse rates are very good but again might just stay over the sea. Will be keeping an eye to see if Orographic lift has an influence in Kerry tomorrow night.

Meteorite58

Charts emphasizing off the SW tomorrow night. The center of the area of Lp will be off the SW later tomorrow night.

spookwoman

Some altocumulas passing over waterford from the south

JanuarySnowstor

Interesting 24hours with surely some storms cracking off!!
Plenty warmth in the air down in Cork this evening.
History would say yes, these biscay lows nearly always deliver...

Gaoth Laidir

I doubt we'll see any lightning from this tomorrow. Only the southeast might have a slight chance in the morning, but there just aren't the dynamics in place to force the elevated convection enough for lightning. It's a similar type of setup to the one at the end of June last year, just a lot less favourable.

Kermit.de.frog

I'd be a little more confident but not by much. There'll probably be a bit of a shadow through Wicklow which didn't work out so well last time up wind. Inland southeast and hugging Irish sea coasts are the best bet.

No active thunderstorm activity at the moment between north west France and the south coast.

Gaoth Laidir

Latest TAF for Waterford Airport, valid to 10 am.

TAF EIWF 012300Z 0200/0209 06006KT 9999 FEW030
PROB30 TEMPO 0200/0202 4000 BR
TEMPO 0208/0209 4000 SHRA BKN010 SCT050CB=

PukkaStukka

@convectivewx not massively confident either

https://twitter.com/convectivewx/status/1399976385083478021?s=19

Lightning off Pembroke now in the batch headed for wexford

RubyK

I can hear a few rumbles in the Waterford/Kilkenny border, here in work.

PukkaStukka

Marine Layer wrote: »

Lightning off Pembroke now in the batch headed for wexford

I've been watching that. The showers are loosing intensity as they cross the sea, and on SAT24, those clouds don't appear to have any significant heights in them or are showing significant signs of convection,

Gaoth Laidir

Some nice surface-based thunderstorms going all afternoon over northern France. Our system just ran out of steam overnight, but at least it made for another decent day.

PukkaStukka

Well not only no thunder but no rain either !

Meteorite58

Yeah very little convective activity even in the UK. Still a chance of some activity off the SW tonight and early morning and possibly up along the coasts. Lapse rates are best here with good deep layer shear and a pronounced convergence zone with high K index readings. ECM showing the far NW with possibility of some thunderstorms also in the early morning. Tomorrow up along the W, maybe Kerry also showing the highest chance of some convective activity with Thunderstorm's possible if somewhat a low chance.

Kermit.de.frog

A total dud. Ah well. That's the way the cookie crumbles.

Niall145

Epic thunderstorm alright, think we got around two drops of light rain around lunchtime.

eastmayo

There was 1 very loud clap off thunder last nite at 3 45 which has knocked the power out kilmovee in eastmayo..

lolie

eastmayo wrote: »

There was 1 very loud clap off thunder last nite at 3 45 which has knocked the power out kilmovee in eastmayo..

Thats probably the culprit there.
3.35am cloud to ground strike.

JCX BXC

Some fine showers building in Kerry and Clare, absolutely lashing here in West Clare atm

JCX BXC

2 big cells broken out, one near labasheeda in Clare and one south of foynes. Loud long rumbling bursts of thunder audible here in West Clare.

JCX BXC

JCX BXC wrote: »

2 big cells broken out, one near labasheeda in Clare and one south of foynes. Loud long rumbling bursts of thunder audible here in West Clare.

Have since merged to form one fairly large thunderstorm moving towards Ennis, radar returns look insane.

munsterlegend

JCX BXC wrote: »

Have since merged to form one fairly large thunderstorm moving towards Ennis, radar returns look insane.

Ninja thunder and lightning. Can’t beat it.

Looks like Galway city is gonna get a direct hit.

The_Outsider

Went more or less directly overhead here. Wasn't as intense as I thought it would be given the radar returns.
Watched a lovely C-G bolt strike around 2km west of me, and heard plently of other close and deep rumbles.
But just 'heavy' rain, nothing startling, and zero hail.

Still, I'll take that any day.
Great to get a good cell passing close!

Xenji

Thunder currently in Castlebar and some hail added in for good measure.

Goldfinch8

Thunder rumbling near Castlebar now.

AllForIt

There was a very brief splatter of hail here in Castlebar followed by some raps of thunder.

That beats my previous record for wintry weather in this area which was 3rd May, a long time ago. I take mental notes of these things. Not sure it counts though as it was very short lived. Certainly a first for me to see hail in JUNE!!!

redsteveireland

AllForIt wrote: »

There was a very brief splatter of hail here in Castlebar followed by some raps of thunder.

That beats my previous record for wintry weather in this area which was 3rd May, a long time ago. I take mental notes of these things. Not sure it counts though as it was very short lived. Certainly a first for me to see hail in JUNE!!!

Hail is not a winter phenomenon.

Captain_Crash

AllForIt wrote: »

There was a very brief splatter of hail here in Castlebar followed by some raps of thunder.

That beats my previous record for wintry weather in this area which was 3rd May, a long time ago. I take mental notes of these things. Not sure it counts though as it was very short lived. Certainly a first for me to see hail in JUNE!!!

Theres normally a lot more convection in June than winter, so hail would prob be more common in the summer months.

The One Doctor

Jacksie66. wrote: »

Looks like Galway city is gonna get a direct hit.

That should light a fair few spliffs.

Meteorite58

Not many sferics overnight and what there was stayed well off the coast, none in the NW as far as I know , fair amount of activity up along the W today.

Missed all the rain here near Tralee today apart from 0.2mm, some sunny breaks but quite cloudy, could see some nice towers in the distance.








ECM captured it fairly well today, had the parameters well aligned that matched the track of the storms. Colder uppers over the Western half of the country, LLS and very decent DLS especially along the W coast , converging winds, decent lapse rates and reached decent 2m temps as the weather moved up the W.

Donegal Ken

It looks like we will see some heavy showers across Ulster on Saturday afternoon some possibly forming into isolated thunderstorms. Derry & Antrim look most at risk and possibly Tyrone and Down also. Will see what this mornings model runs show.

Jpmarn

There seem to be some heavy showers in Northern Ireland this afternoon according to radar charts but no sparks.

Wanderer78

processed much i wonder

Meanwhile...in west Texas, storm chaser Laura Rowe captured the picture of a lifetime last night (May 17, 2021), with this fantastic shot of a mature supercell thunderstorm, illuminated at varying heights from the setting sun.

DOCARCH

Wanderer78 wrote: »

processed much i wonder

Meanwhile...in west Texas, storm chaser Laura Rowe captured the picture of a lifetime last night (May 17, 2021), with this fantastic shot of a mature supercell thunderstorm, illuminated at varying heights from the setting sun.

:eek: Cool!

DOCARCH

DOCARCH wrote: »

:eek: Cool!

A neighbour was sailing off North wexford a few years ago,they were telling me,when a small water spout passed them
They said the water felt warm as it sprayed them

Oneiric 3

Unusual for the UK Met to put out a specific video like this. Something big must be going down for the southern UK:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oDVxRL5AsY

Would say it is highly unlikely at this stage, but maybe still a chance of a few of these storms scraping the SE coast here?

spookwoman

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Unusual for the UK Met to put out a specific video like this. Something big must be going down for the southern UK:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oDVxRL5AsY

Would say it is highly unlikely at this stage, but maybe still a chance of a few of these storms scraping the SE coast here?

Looks like some major thunderstorms for wednesday thursday coming up from france. Sunday and monday could be the same. No such luck here.

Danno

spookwoman wrote: »

Looks like some major thunderstorms for wednesday thursday coming up from france. Sunday and monday could be the same. No such luck here.

The GFS shows bands of precipitation spreading NW on Sunday/Monday - so we might get a glance from that.