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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Summer/Autumn 2021

Gaoth Laidir

Wednesday ECM is looking interesting for some fairly widely scattered elevated thunderstorms, with a high-Theta-E tongue moving up over the country during the late afternoon hours. K-Indices of 32-34 suggest a 70-80% probability, though soundings suggest that it won't be surface-based.

% probability = 4 x (KI -15)

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typhoony

only a couple hundred miles off the south coast, looks unlikely to change.

Donegal Ken

A interesting watch later this afternoon and evening as some models show good potential for isolated thunderstorms to form over the northwest of the country. Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Fermanagh, Mayo and Tyrone are the areas especially to watch this evening. Anything that does develop is likely to be slow moving giving the risk of spot flooding. Some hail also possible. The ECMWF model shows 1600 Cape in places. You would think if anything does start to develop it will be rather fast.

Simon Gruber Says

Watching a nice cell in NW Donegal. Its constant rumbling but all CC. If it were dark it would be like a strobe. Most active storm I've heard in this country.

Meteorite58

Those storms look quite intense up North.

Fri looking more widespread, some big CAPE values, the instability indexes looking high. Charts have been showing big interest for Connacht in the afternoon and parts of the Midlands, maybe the S or SE also. Will know more nearer Fri.

Simon Gruber Says

This is the one east of Derry

pad199207

Level: Yellow

Type: Thunderstorm

Message: Localised thunderstorms today with a risk of lightning and spot flooding.

Affected Regions: Donegal, Leitrim, Mayo, and Sligo

Issue Time: Wednesday 21/7/2021 15:32

Expected Onset: Wednesday 21/7/2021 15:32

Expires: Wednesday 21/7/2021 23:00

Kermit.de.frog

Friday looks like more significant thunderstorm potential for south Leinster, north Munster and Connaught through the day and well in to the night.

DumbBrunette

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117642273#Comment_117642273

I could see it clearly from my attic window in Dublin!

Donegal Storm

Loads of thunder in Donegal all afternoon, must have heard over a hundred rumbles since around 1pm.

Most of them fairly distant and I was stuck on work calls most of the afternoon so couldn't get out to enjoy it but plenty of nice big cracks all the same!

Radar was well off though, showing torrential rain over me when there was nothing more than a few drops falling

Meteorite58

The heat and high Dp's especially in Connacht from around early afternoon with low level convergence giving loads of instability potential on Fri and perhaps increasing DLS towards evening in the S of the country adding maybe to late evening activity. High Theta E readings giving plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to tap into , some big PPW readings giving heavy localized rainfall with spot flooding potential. Should produce some photogenic cells .

Soundings around E Galway /Offaly border.

progsounding_modez_346_321_949_2021072112_51_2288f9c4becb49e4d356015bb20bed3e.png

[Deleted User]

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117643827#Comment_117643827

With new boards,you need to save the gif to your phone and add it to the post as an attachment

You can delete them from the phone after you've posted

Meteorite58

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117643840#Comment_117643840

Can you see the Gif's ? I can see them fine.

[Deleted User]

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117643850#Comment_117643850

I just see the links to them

Edit I see them now 👍

Tyrone212

@Meteorite58 If you can would you please post the map of all todays lightning strikes. I can't find it on meteologic. I think its you who usually posts it, if not nevermind. Cheers.

Donegal Storm

I was looking on lightningmaps and blitzortung earlier but they don't seem to have captures anywhere close to all the lightning today. Only showing 40 or so strikes yet there were multiple periods of constant rumbling for 5-10 minutes and sustained thunder for a good 5 hours with rarely more than a few minutes between so must have added up to well over a hundred strikes just in the vicinity of Letterkenny.

https://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;ts=0;y=54.9522;x=-7.8797;z=9;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;ts24=1;tsc=1;

Meteorite58

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117644549#Comment_117644549

Yeah they don't display all the strikes together as far as I know, here is a gif of the afternoon / early evening. A good tally in all today. Me Eireann have a good information about the The ATDnet Lightning Detection System and being optimised for detecting Cg strikes , see below

https://www.met.ie/climate/what-we-measure/lightning

Click on Pic below to enlarge if needed

Tyrone212

Good man. Thanks.

Meteorite58

Interesting to see AROMES prediction for tomorrow , big CAPE values high temperatures and Dp's, and high Theta E advecting across Ireland from the SE to the W and later another band in the S. It is predicting some heavy localized rainfall especially towards the W but the midlands could see some big downpours also, could see a yellow warning being issued tomorrow when they see if much kicks off. Interesting the temperature prediction chart showing the temperatures drop significantly tomorrow evening as the weather goes through the W especially, I wonder could a large cell form in all that heat ?? Would think that hail is a possibility maybe even large and maybe some locally strong gusty downdrafts. Watch the last wind chart below and believe me I am no expert but wondering if it would indicate a very large intense storm forming, it looks like huge outflow as it crosses the W coast and dissipates ??

modfrahd_20210723_1100_animation (1).gif

modfrahd_20210723_1100_animation (2).gif

modfrahd_20210723_1100_animation (3).gif

[Deleted User]

Plenty Altocumulus high in the sky this evening near Arklow

Up near 20,000ft probably

[Deleted User]

I'm working in Mayo tomorrow. Trying to time my trip home to Limerick so I can get to see a good show on my drive back..

[Deleted User]

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117649046#Comment_117649046

Take a V route home,going well out of your way

Head East towards Dublin,then join the motorway M7/8 South and head west again as you hit Tipperary

If you miss a storm as you head south and then west back to limerick on that kind of route,you'll be unlucky

fryup

so when is it all kicking off tomorrow i'm in east-clare, what time should i expect?

Meteorite58

Interesting from Dan Holley with convective Weather :

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2021-07-23

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 23 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sat 24 Jul 2021

ISSUED 21:40 UTC Thu 22 Jul 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

IRELAND ...

Diurnal heating of moist low-levels (dewpoints could be as high as 17-19C in places, with air temperatures once again locally exceeding 30C) will yield substantial SBCAPE, potentially >1,500 J/kg. Gradual cooling aloft and lowering heights as the main upper low over Biscay slowly approaches from the south, combined with low-level convergence and some forced ascent over high ground will all contribute to scattered thunderstorms developing from around 12-13z. These are expected to become more numerous through the afternoon and early evening as they drift gradually WNW-wards.

Profiles suggest fairly unidirectional winds with height, with some modest flow in the mid-levels contributing to marginal wind shear, but the magnitude of CAPE coupled with a marked dry layer in the mid-levels suggests some active thunderstorms are likely, with frequent lightning and the potential for large hail 2-4cm in diameter. In fact, the strongest cells may perhaps display some transient supercellular structures. Strong outflow winds could gust over 50mph locally, and substantial cold pooling may develop in western Ireland later in the afternoon resulting in several daughter cells developing in clusters nearby. Most thunderstorms will likely decay during the mid-late evening, however some may persist and/or additional cells develop across Munster perhaps even into the early hours of Saturday. Given PWAT of 30-35mm and the potential for training of cells, flash flooding will also be possible.

spookwoman

Some activity off the south west coast at the moment if only it would turn towards us.

[Deleted User]

By any account

Thats A LOT of activity

[Deleted User]

Looking South from here in Arklow, there's already some proper convection going on high up and some Altocumulus

Apologies for the sideways photo

Gaoth Laidir

The international aviation charts have isolated embedded Cb, tops 35,000 ft, over much of Ireland at 12Z. They are completely absent on the 18Z and 00Z charts, both of which show the area well to the south of Ireland.

[Deleted User]

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117650428#Comment_117650428

The area with a lot of activity currently west of Brittany contains the same description albeit at 30k feet, so 🤞

typhoony

just south-east of Galway city here so it seems i'm in the firing line, will post any photos as i have a good view looking SE over the Derrybrien Hills, hopefully these will be the high cloud tops type thunderstorms.

CrowdedHouse

I'm wearing my telemeter watch but I really just want rain for my flowers 😊