Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi all! We have been experiencing an issue on site where threads have been missing the latest postings. The platform host Vanilla are working on this issue. A workaround that has been used by some is to navigate back from 1 to 10+ pages to re-sync the thread and this will then show the latest posts. Thanks, Mike.
Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest

Covid India great news!

  • 15-07-2021 5:52pm
    #1
    Posts: 0


    India’s new case numbers keep dropping. Now just over 30,000 a day. Six weeks to eight weeks ago they had numbers in the high 300,000s. This is great news. Why is it not widely reported as it was reported widely when they had very high numbers in May? And what is the reason for the new case numbers to drop so dramatically?



«1

Comments

  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Great news doesnt sell.

    Waves pass through a population.

    People take precautions when numbers are high and r falls.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 302 ✭✭Piollaire


    I'd agree with that and add the widespread use of Ivermectin.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yes you would expect the people in India to have taking more precautions when the numbers got so high in May. It is difficult to know if this accounts for such a dramatic reduction in new cases numbers and deaths in under two months. Whatever the reason/reasons for the reduction you would think the media would have a really good story to tell and we might all learn something from what India are doing.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yes I have read a few articles from Indian publications saying Ivermectin is being widely used in four Indian states - Goa, Uttarkhand, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh. So you would expect that Ivermectin is another reason that accounts for such a dramatic reduction in new case numbers and deaths. Very disappointing that our media does not report this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,025 ✭✭✭duffman13


    Forgive me but how is Ivermectin stopping transmission? Reducing the death count maybe but reducing case numbers?



  • Advertisement
  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    'Ivermectin is the answer! Look at all the preliminary papers that have been published while ignoring every negative meta-analysis'



    "The Elgazzar study was one of the the largest and most promising showing the drug may help Covid patients, and has often been cited by proponents of the drug as evidence of its effectiveness. This is despite a peer-reviewed paper published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases in June finding ivermectin is “not a viable option to treat COVID-19 patients”.

    Meyerowitz-Katz told the Guardian that “this is one of the biggest ivermectin studies out there”, and it appeared to him the data was “just totally faked”. This was concerning because two meta-analyses of ivermectin for treating Covid-19 had included the Elgazzar study in the results. A meta-analysis is a statistical analysis that combines the results of multiple scientific studies to determine what the overall scientific literature has found about a treatment or intervention.

    “Because the Elgazzar study is so large, and so massively positive – showing a 90% reduction in mortality – it hugely skews the evidence in favour of ivermectin,” Meyerowitz-Katz said.

    “If you remove this one study from the scientific literature, suddenly there are very few positive randomised control trials of ivermectin for Covid-19. Indeed, if you get rid of just this research, most meta-analyses that have found positive results would have their conclusions entirely reversed.”"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,057 ✭✭✭Vic_08


    Can one of the geniuses hailing Ivermectin as the next miracle solution explain how a drug whose use and supposed benefit is treating those already infected in hospital has been able to reduce transmission rates?



  • Registered Users Posts: 745 ✭✭✭ClosedAccountFuzzy


    It doesn’t.

    You’re much more likely seeing the impact of social measures and a population that started taking controlling transmission seriously again after a shock.

    We’ve seen this repeated in many countries over the pandemic, including here after Christmas.

    It flies up exponentially, and when starved of hosts, it collapses back almost as dramatically. It’s highly transmissible, but not capable of hanging around in the environment for very long, so once the transmission chains are broken, it dies back fast.

    India’s vaccination rate still isn’t anywhere near high enough yet to account for it either.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    I agree with FuzzyThinking above and I was going to talk about Ivermectin share prices but when I searched for the prices I decided just to show the search.

    For horses? for cattle? for humans? We're 6th in the search list for a parasitic removal drug developed in the 70s, and a horse is being wormed is before human usage... 🤑😱

    I'm OK with Pfizer thanks! 👍️




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,717 ✭✭✭YFlyer


    Do one take ivermectin the whole time or once you get infected.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 302 ✭✭Piollaire


    Early treatment prior to admission will reduce the viral load you are breathing out and thus reduce transmission.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,225 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    It's not ivermectin lads.

    They went into lockdown. Cases went down. Now they're out, let's see what happens.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 302 ✭✭Piollaire


    Can't give medical advice here and Ivermectin isn't authorised in Ireland. Have a look at the FLCCC protocols for research purposes:

    https://covid19criticalcare.com/covid-19-protocols/i-mass-protocol/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 302 ✭✭Piollaire


    Ivermectin is an anti-viral and anti-parasitic that works well in both humans and other animals. It is off-patent and cheap which means no pharma company is going to make super profits off it. It's being used in India because it is cheap and effective.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,900 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    It's good news in a way but it's just the trough part of the doom cycle before the ascent toward the next peak. Rinse/repeat.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,137 ✭✭✭323


    What odds, its effective, cheap and very safe.

    Replace Ivermectin in your question with any of these Covid vaccines (Take your pick) you get the same answer. Reducing symptoms is the main marketing point of these vaccines, You can still catch and spread covid while vaccinated with these.

    “Follow the trend lines, not the headlines,”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Vaccines have robust data backing their effectiveness against COVID, Ivermectin still doesn't.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,747 ✭✭✭✭wes


    Good to hear things have improved. I hope the government gets it act together and prevents another wave in a few months time.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 51,827 CMod ✭✭✭✭Retr0gamer


    I wouldn't go singing the praises of Ivermectin just yet. It might well work on Covid but anti-parasitic usually have horrendous side effects as they don't differentiate human cells from the parasitic ones. It really isn't something you want to be taking to casually combat covid. There's no way it will get approved to combat covid by the EMA and rightfully so.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,717 ✭✭✭YFlyer


    It was more of a question for Run For The Hill brigade. Same with hydroxychloroquine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,225 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    There is a reason that drugs get approved in places like India and the EU and USA are having none of it.

    It's not your standard anti-vaxxer conspiracy lunacy about big pharma not being interested in anything that doesn't make huge profits. If Ivermectin worked, the first drug company to generate evidence of this would have a multi, multi-billion euro product on their hands overnight.

    I don't know how you tally big pharma conspiracy with them leaving so much money on the table. It's Trumpian logic.

    Ivermectin is being recommended in India because they were desperate and had no other options. The Indian government doesn't really believe it works. They just had to do SOMETHING. In Europe and USA, we're lucky to have health services and vaccines that India simply doesn't and we don't need to be throwing snake oil at very sick people.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,136 ✭✭✭Cordell


    Once you get infected through the infection until you're clear. And just to make sure, I'm talking about infections with lice crabs or tapeworms, because this is what it works on.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Below is a message on Telegram by the British Ivermectin Recommendation Development Group


    BiRD Group Channel

    BiRD has received some queries about The Guardian article on Professor Elgazzar et al’s study. We can confirm that our meta analysis clearly shows that ivermectin reduces deaths when used to treat covid whether the Elgazzar data are included or excluded. The Guardian’s quote that removing these data reverses the findings of most meta analyses is false. A formal press release will be issued shortly. ~ BiRD

    4.2K viewsTessarary, 14:13


    It will be interesting to see their response later on...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,612 ✭✭✭Yellow_Fern


    I really dont know what is happening in India but I talk daily to an Indian doctor working on the front line and I can tell you, there very very few social distancing restrictions enforced there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,265 ✭✭✭✭smurfjed


    Weren’t they also using cow dung, not sure if they did any scientific tests on it, but they apparently jailed a reported who questioned its use.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yeah you would expect that the shock of the numbers they were getting two months ago would make the people much more cautious by adhering to social distancing, cleaning hands etc. I have never been to India, so I am really only going on assumptions but I'd expect a very large portion of the Indian population live in cramped living conditions with poor sanitation facilities. If this is the case can social distancing restrictions alone account for such a dramatic drop in new case numbers and deaths in India over the past two months? We mainly have the Delta variant here also with social distancing restrictions and the numbers are going up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,612 ✭✭✭Yellow_Fern


    I think social distancing restrictions in India couldn't possibly explain it. As you say, people live on top of each other. They dont hug or shake hands as much as Europeans but they do live very close together. They are making great progress with vaccines and there could also be seasonal factors.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    I read the claim review, and it indulges in quite a bit of overreach. I agree that the India "experience" and making pro-ivermectin conclusions from it are a form of Post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, but the fact "checker" goes way too far and seems to declare that it could not be possible. It doesn't address the simultaneous use of "lockdown" in tandem with treatment regime changes, nor the state-level nature of healthcare and ordinances.


    It's a "more research needed" situation, but the claim has not been falsified unlike what the "fact" checker claims in the limited piece, more statistics and data are needed to do that.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    The whole "nobody is promoting Ivermectin because it's off patent" doesn't stand up to a moment's scrutiny when you consider major countries like the UK investigated and re-purposed off patent dexamethasone for covid treatments.

    Now I don't know if Ivermectin is an effective prophylactic or not, but it stands or falls on its own merits, not the above argument which has no foundation. Ivermectin as a treatment when investigated was not effective.

    The more mundane answer is that efforts at prevention were focused on vaccines, and you'd be a fool to rely on Ivermectin versus vaccines based on presently available information.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,612 ✭✭✭Yellow_Fern


    If ivermectin works as some propose it does, it would massively reduce transmissibility. However, I suspect that there aren't enough people on it in India for it to make such an impact on the entire country.

    BBC's More or Less covered ivermectin and their conclusion was that there is little evidence that it works but that it was a massive system failure that global pharm hasn't properly checked it out by now. They couldn't explain how this system failure occurred. Personally, it's disturbing how supposedly respectable broadsheets like the Guardian are painting it as a right wing idea even now.

    Post edited by Yellow_Fern on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,612 ✭✭✭Yellow_Fern


    The argument now for ivermectin is that of masks. It is basically free and does not harm so even if it doesn't work (as masks often don't work) so you would take it out of abundance of caution.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,538 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    There's nothing to suggest it doesn't harm, though.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Political interference in reporting?

    India isn't the most robust democracy.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    It has a pretty long list of side effects & contra-indications for something which "does not harm".

    I expect the benefits outweight the risks if you have a parasite etc

    But that's not the same thing as being safe for continuous use as a prophylactic.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,612 ✭✭✭Yellow_Fern


    Isnt there decades of data to show it has low risks when taking at moderate doses? I don't think Brett is arguing for high doses. I know doctors prescribing it in India for covid. Quite different from very high doses



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,922 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly


    I heard from an Indian friend living in India last night. It made for grim reading. I don't know where this "great news" is coming from but its not reflected in reality



  • Registered Users Posts: 745 ✭✭✭ClosedAccountFuzzy


    There's always 'great news' about some obscure medication that's trending on whatever forum somewhere or amongst the GOP. For some reason there are people who are totally anti vaccine / keep giving out about the very successful vaccine programme, yet seem to want to pump everyone full of veterinary medicines.

    It was the same with the OMG! OMG! we need Sputnik V a few months ago, despite the fact it was not available in any quantities sufficient to meet the demand and wasn't even approved as its manufacturer hadn't even applied.

    It's just whatever reason for claiming there's a coverup of some random household item / drug and a conspiracy theory about whatever it is being 'kept from us' ...

    Same pattern - rinse, repeat.



  • Advertisement
  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    When 'BIRD' don't understand what the word 'most' means, it doesn't really instill one with confidence as to their ability to independently evaluate the efficacy of Ivermectin in other studies.


    BIRD published a rebuttal that states:

    'Contrary to the voices quoted in the article, there is no scientific basis to state that the removal of one study from meta-analyses would ‘reverse results.’ Worryingly, this article’s insinuation is reported as if it is fact.

    According to the most recent analyses by BIRD, excluding the Elgazzar data from the cited meta-analyses by Bryant and Hill does not change the conclusions of these reviews, with the findings still clearly favouring ivermectin for both prevention and treatment.'



    Unfortunately for them, Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz (who was quoted in The Guardian article) had actually published this information almost a month ago here: https://gidmk.medium.com/does-ivermectin-work-for-covid-19-1166126c364a scroll down about half-way and you'll see his re-analysis with questionable studies removed.


    BIRD are an example of another group of anti-intellectual quacks falling prey to confirmation bias.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,656 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    The great news are in the numbers I thought. People get freaked out by absolute numbers like 400k deaths but forget that India has a massive population. They outperform (for want of a better word) any European country by orders of magnitude in terms of cases and deaths and deaths per million and all the rest of it.

    Worldometers reports 413,640 deaths from 31,105,209 reported cases. Thats 1.3%, but the dark figure of undetected cases is most likely much much higher. like factor 10 or more. In terms of their population their covid death rate is 0.03%.

    Also their vaccination rate is rather low (~12%) and yet their case curve looks like this, basically a reduction by 90% over the last 2 months.

    I know 'good news' is relative with regards to covid but in a long line of bad news this is kind of good, no?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,922 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly


    The undetected numbers are massive. Villages that are unreachable. Most of my friends in India have had Covid. Some have died. Some with serious kidney damage as a result.


    We'll never know the real figures and never from the government sources.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,885 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Invermectin wouldn't have any effect on transmission and numbers, it's great to see Indian case numbers drop but weird that the invermectin crowd have jumped into this thread to spread disinformation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    The Indian death numbers are clearly bulls**t. It's clear also that the wave has passed as we no longer see the graphic evidence in front of the hospitals. I think it says something about the infectiousness of Delta that the wave went through the population so quickly, and tells us something also about what Europe will probably experience over the next few weeks. Get vaccinated or you will be taking your chances with Covid.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    And the amount of people shocked by this should be very low.

    India's Covid deaths 10 times higher than reported: study

    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0720/1236142-coronavirus-global/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Thank you . I read four times. Clearly huge error whether deliberate or not? I have family there and the situation is not easing. Nor are the deaths.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths in India still very low especially considering their vaccination rate is still very low. Interesting article here on the WHO website regarding the action taken in early May in Uttar Pradesh. They mention medicine kits being given to the people by the state, though the article does not say what was in the medicine kits.

    https://www.who.int/india/news/feature-stories/detail/uttar-pradesh-going-the-last-mile-to-stop-covid-19



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,021 ✭✭✭✭Dempo1


    Whilst not doubting numbers have decreased , the Question really should be , "can we believe a word of what comes out of India , seriously 🤔 I'd doubt for a second anyone outside India ever believed the official numbers given, some experts have estimated 10 times the amount of cases and deaths reported officially.

    Is maith an scáthán súil charad.




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    If the numbers in India are estimated to be higher due to "we cannot believe them", it makes sense the numbers were always higher. Therefore cases since beginning of May have plummeted and have stayed low since.



  • Advertisement
Advertisement