US and Nato withdrawal from Afghanistan...- threadbanned users in OP

#1 · 04-07-2021 11:03pm #1

Incredible to think that after being in Afghanistan for 20 years that we are possibly on the verge of having the Taliban back in power, by all accounts the government is on the brink of collapse in a matter of months or even weeks...

How is it possible that after a 20 year occupation by Nato/US that the Afghan government/military was so ill equipped?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/04/afghanistan-americas-longest-war-ends-amid-accusations-of-betrayal

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Montage of Feck · 04-07-2021 11:05pm

Corruption and tribalism.

04-07-2021 11:09pm

The Taliban or those fighting under their banner have decades of experience and are hardened fighters. Afghanistan isn't getting better anytime soon unfortunately.

Odhinn · 04-07-2021 11:14pm

Sandor Clegane wrote: »

Incredible to think that after being in Afghanistan for 20 years that we are possibly on the verge of having the Taliban back in power, by all accounts the government is on the brink of collapse in a matter of months or even weeks...

How is it possible that after a 20 year occupation by Nato/US that the Afghan government/military was so ill equipped?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/04/afghanistan-americas-longest-war-ends-amid-accusations-of-betrayal

Due to the invasion of Iraq they took the Americans took their eye off the ball in Afghanistan, allowing the taleban to regroup and reestablish themselves.

AbusesToilets · 04-07-2021 11:21pm

Sandor Clegane wrote: »

Incredible to think that after being in Afghanistan for 20 years that we are possibly on the verge of having the Taliban back in power, by all accounts the government is on the brink of collapse in a matter of months or even weeks...

How is it possible that after a 20 year occupation by Nato/US that the Afghan government/military was so ill equipped?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/04/afghanistan-americas-longest-war-ends-amid-accusations-of-betrayal

The inherent inability of the Afghans to organise themselves into any semblance of a functional state.

biko · 04-07-2021 11:21pm

Hopefully Biden will finish what Trump started.
US can't keep policing the rest of the world.
It should never have been invaded in the first place.

Sandor Clegane · 04-07-2021 11:23pm

Deleted User wrote: »

The Taliban or those fighting under their banner have decades of experience and are hardened fighters. Afghanistan isn't getting better anytime soon unfortunately.

Odhinn wrote: »

Due to the invasion of Iraq they took the Americans took their eye off the ball in Afghanistan, allowing the taleban to regroup and reestablish themselves.

Still, it's incredible to think that after being there for so long the the Afghan government military are so lacking, 20 years is a long time, you'd think they could of trained the Afghans better, surely they had a plan for when/after they withdrew?

Dr. Bre · 04-07-2021 11:25pm

That’s why the Russians left - you can’t win in Afghan

igCorcaigh · 04-07-2021 11:26pm

Must the Taliban have some significant level of domestic support in order for them to still exist?

Where do they get their weapons from?

04-07-2021 11:28pm

Sandor Clegane wrote: »

Still, it's incredible to think that after being there for so long the the Afghan government military are so lacking, 20 years is a long time, you'd think they could of trained the Afghans better, surely they had a plan for when/after they withdrew?

Ya, it's strange and the real answer is probably very complex. Maybe the Taliban have a real belief in what they are fighting for and the Afghan government/military are there to earn a wage and aren't as committed.

The plan for after the withdrawal is already falling apart and the Taliban are currently making more gains.

04-07-2021 11:30pm

Are they not leaving a few hundred behind to guard diplomatic offices and to provide security for the international opium trade at the airport?

biko · 04-07-2021 11:32pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Where do they get their weapons from?

US and Russia.
And possibly Pakistan (Khyber Pass).

Larbre34 · 04-07-2021 11:35pm

Within one year (or more likely, a lot sooner) Afghanistan will be as if the last 20 years never happened.

Seems more than a little wasteful of 200,000 lives (combatants and civilians on both sides) and >$1 trillion dollars (foreign coalition military commitment costs only).

The only thing to be done with Afghanistan, is to cut it off, and put as best a lid on it as possible with remote signal intelligence and weapons strikes when deemed necessary.

Hopefully some day, the Afghan people will as a large majority choose a path that doesn't involve self-destruction and medieval thinking.

FileNotFound · 04-07-2021 11:36pm

Tribalism and a lack of progress.

You have to show people something if you want their support.

Hopefully they don't just capitulate.

Gatling · 04-07-2021 11:38pm

biko wrote: »

.
It should never have been invaded in the first place.

They absolutely should have , Iraq was the biggest mistake the issue with Afghanistan was too many chiefs and not enough Indians and an actual end goal , they built schools hospitals and infrastructure and essentially walked away ,
After what happened with the Russians the country completely went back several centuries to as pointed out to nothing tribalism and corruption ,most of the big names in government have ties to Taliban forces controling the opium trade ,
The US forces hands tied and blindfolded and expected to win against an ideological belief and heroine

Guy:Incognito · 04-07-2021 11:44pm

Odhinn wrote: »

Due to the invasion of Iraq they took the Americans took their eye off the ball in Afghanistan, allowing the taleban to regroup and reestablish themselves.

Or maybe they're just not very good at invading and occupying places and should concentrate on getting their own house in order instead?

TefalBrain · 04-07-2021 11:48pm

Taliban commander to US journalist about a year after the invasion in 2002. "You have the clock and we have forever"

Sandor Clegane · 04-07-2021 11:51pm

TefalBrain wrote: »

Taliban commander to US journalist about a year after the invasion in 2002. "You have the clock and we have forever"

Thing about these kinds of people is you'll always have some replacement ready when one gets killed, it's a never ending cycle, the only hope they had was training the Afghan government/military to defend themselves which obviously didn't work.

If they couldn't get there **** together in 20 years then it's a hopeless cause.

joseywhales · 04-07-2021 11:54pm

Remind me, what was the last country to be invaded, successfully converted to the invader's culture and then thrived independently?

India maybe? Australia for sure but that was utter domination.

joseywhales · 04-07-2021 11:55pm

Sandor Clegane wrote: »

Thing about these kinds of people is you'll always have some replacement ready when one gets killed, it's a never ending cycle, the only hope they had was training the Afghan government/military to defend themselves which obviously didn't work.

If they couldn't get there **** together in 20 years then it's a hopeless cause.

I mean why train people who will inevitably become your enemy?

04-07-2021 11:56pm

The graveyard of empires.

Mimon · 05-07-2021 12:04am

joseywhales wrote: »

Remind me, what was the last country to be invaded, successfully converted to the invader's culture and then thrived independently?

India maybe? Australia for sure but that was utter domination.

Ourselves?

FileNotFound · 05-07-2021 12:17am

MeepMeep2021 wrote: »

The graveyard of empires.

Should be the new name to be fair.

05-07-2021 12:23am

Their rapidly expanding population isn't going to help the situation either

joseywhales · 05-07-2021 12:35am

Mimon wrote: »

Ourselves?

Sure it only took a millennium and the still have to deal with the RA

05-07-2021 3:56am

Sandor Clegane wrote: »

Still, it's incredible to think that after being there for so long the the Afghan government military are so lacking, 20 years is a long time, you'd think they could of trained the Afghans better, surely they had a plan for when/after they withdrew?

Their casualty rates were very high
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/21/world/asia/afghanistan-security-casualties-taliban.html

Good read, may explain alot

fash · 05-07-2021 4:29am

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Must the Taliban have some significant level of domestic support in order for them to still exist?

Where do they get their weapons from?

Some domestic support, some support from Pakistan/ISI.

BluePlanet · 05-07-2021 8:30am

I read an interesting book by this guy Ahmed Rashid, on the rise of the Taliban (before Sept 11).
In a recent interview he said the US had no actual plan in Afghanistan.
Says the Taliban are a little more cultured today and using digital media to their advantage (whereas before they had tried to ban media).
Sounds like they've evolved a little.
But he makes the point that we still don't know what they actually want; just what they don't want.

https://en.qantara.de/content/interview-with-afghanistan-expert-ahmed-rashid-the-americans-were-completely-devoid-of-any

TheValeyard · 05-07-2021 8:51am

joseywhales wrote: »

Remind me, what was the last country to be invaded, successfully converted to the invader's culture and then thrived independently?

India maybe? Australia for sure but that was utter domination.

While not converted to the invaders culture. South Korea would be a success in holding back an aggressive and oppressive northern State. But definitely a huge US impact on Korean culture and tastes.

I'd also argue that West Germany to some extent had similar conditions post WW2.

But unless USA was willing to commit to a total war situation for Afghanistan, I do not see how they were going to win. And you're probably right, some US values do not travel well to that part of the world, for better or worse.

TheValeyard · 05-07-2021 9:00am

MeepMeep2021 wrote: »

The graveyard of empires.

Good title.

Although pretty sure Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan were very successful there.

Unless I'm mistaken I think it's the British interventions in Afghanistan while trying to control their Indian Frontier is what gave rise to the stories that you cannot conquer that region. Took three wars to realise that.

Gatling · 05-07-2021 9:15am

Current reports are saying the Afghan army are fleeing to other countries in the north rather than actually putting up a fight ,it seems many army outposts are poorly equipped and supplied ,most places the Taliban have taken without firing a single shot
With the latest push the Taliban now control 130 + districts out of 412

TP_CM · 05-07-2021 10:12am

Dr. Bre wrote: »

That’s why the Russians left - you can’t win in Afghan

+1 Even Alexander the Great failed there. It's practically impossible.

05-07-2021 10:34am

They're going to have a population equal to or surpassing Germany in about two/three decades. The whole area is a tinderbox but it's up to the locals and the regional players to sort things out now. It's in all their interests.

Beta Ray Bill · 05-07-2021 11:30am

Sandor Clegane wrote: »

How is it possible that after a 20 year occupation by Nato/US that the Afghan government/military was so ill equipped?

there are a huge number of contributing factors which make winning a war in Afghanistan is so difficult.

There is no "Real" Government in the true sense of the word, it's all local administration.
There is no money, its one of the poorest countries in the world.
There is little of no Infrastructure (No Canals, No Railroads up until very recently, Not many large airports, No Sea Ports, Poor Road Network).
The Terrain make it extremely difficult to for a large army to leverage their heavy weapons, and on top of that the locals know exactly how to fight in this type of Terrain.
In terms of Geography they are surrounded by other countries that will help them "off the record" if required.
The Climate also make is difficult to fight there, hot in the day, freezing at night.

The only way to win, is to win the hearts and minds of the people there. And that just isn't going to happen.
The US would have been better off with a softy softy approach to try an get them or at least some of the onside after 911 but the American public were calling for an aggressive response.

I think if it were to ever happen again and the US had to invade/do something, they'd just do something awful to them (Off the books like)

awec · 05-07-2021 11:42am

Beta Ray Bill wrote: »

there are a huge number of contributing factors which make winning a war in Afghanistan is so difficult.

There is no "Real" Government in the true sense of the word, it's all local administration.
There is no money, its one of the poorest countries in the world.
There is little of no Infrastructure (No Canals, No Railroads up until very recently, Not many large airports, No Sea Ports, Poor Road Network).
The Terrain make it extremely difficult to for a large army to leverage their heavy weapons, and on top of that the locals know exactly how to fight in this type of Terrain.
In terms of Geography they are surrounded by other countries that will help them "off the record" if required.
The Climate also make is difficult to fight there, hot in the day, freezing at night.

The only way to win, is to win the hearts and minds of the people there. And that just isn't going to happen.
The US would have been better off with a softy softy approach to try an get them or at least some of the onside after 911 but the American public were calling for an aggressive response.

I think if it were to ever happen again and the US had to invade/do something, they'd just do something awful to them (Off the books like)

I think, unlike Iraq, there was compelling reasons to invade Afghanistan. They went in to hunt for Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda, and they should have killed Bin Laden in 2001, they had him holed up in Tora Bora but managed to let him escape into Pakistan.

FileNotFound · 05-07-2021 11:47am

awec wrote: »

I think, unlike Iraq, there was compelling reasons to invade Afghanistan. They went in to hunt for Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda, and they should have killed Bin Laden in 2001, they had him holed up in Tora Bora but managed to let him escape into Pakistan.

Actually given the fall of Bin Laden and the seeming demise of Al Queda (at least as the major player, no doubt remnants exist).

What are the Taliban these days - are they essentially just the standard Afghans fighting foreign invaders (in the eyes of the people over there)?

Hande hoche! · 05-07-2021 12:28pm

Gatling wrote: »

Current reports are saying the Afghan army are fleeing to other countries in the north rather than actually putting up a fight ,it seems many army outposts are poorly equipped and supplied ,most places the Taliban have taken without firing a single shot
With the latest push the Taliban now control 130 + districts out of 412

The Taliban are also capturing a tremendous amount of equipment from the Afghan government. A blog crunched numbers, with the group capturing over 700 jeeps and trucks recently.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2021/06/disaster-at-hand-documenting-afghan.html

05-07-2021 1:16pm

Will China step in? Maybe not militarily but economically?

Gatling · 05-07-2021 1:20pm

Hande hoche! wrote: »

The Taliban are also capturing a tremendous amount of equipment from the Afghan government. A blog crunched numbers, with the group capturing over 700 jeeps and trucks recently.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2021/06/disaster-at-hand-documenting-afghan.html

That's mad ,the had the biggest military re-equipping drive seen since WW2 to build and train a standing army' and aircraft and Intelligence gathering and it's already collapsing before coming under any real pressure ,

The biggest issue now will the Taliban be replaced with Isis ,can you imagine that situation choose one extremist group over another extremist group

05-07-2021 1:31pm

Gatling wrote: »

The biggest issue now will the Taliban be replaced with Isis ,can you imagine that situation choose one extremist group over another extremist group

I think everyone has accepted that the Taliban are going to be running the country in some form or another but maybe everyone is hoping they have softened their positions somewhat. Seems mad to be saying that. Who knows what's going to happen over the next few years.

Labaik · 05-07-2021 1:35pm

Defeats of the Soviet Union and The U.S with outdated weapons will only strengthen the resolve of the Afghans and the Taliban. A shambolic decision by the US to invade and it cost the lives blood of many of there servicemen for absolutely nothing.

FileNotFound · 05-07-2021 2:01pm

Labaik wrote: »

Defeats of the Soviet Union and The U.S with outdated weapons will only strengthen the resolve of the Afghans and the Taliban. A shambolic decision by the US to invade and it cost the lives blood of many of there servicemen for absolutely nothing.

In fairness to Afghanistan the US invaded to hunt the orchestrators of the twin towers.

They succeeded in killing the man they hunted so have no interest in the nation now.

Beta Ray Bill · 05-07-2021 2:09pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Will China step in? Maybe not militarily but economically?

China already has an ally in the region, Pakistan
Afghanistan has literally nothing to offer them.
No Technology
No Army
No Natural Resources
No Arable land
No Major Strategic Advantage
No Skilled Workforce

It's hassle, and to be avoided.

kildare lad · 05-07-2021 2:14pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Must the Taliban have some significant level of domestic support in order for them to still exist?

Where do they get their weapons from?

Pakistan I'd say , it's kind of ironic that the yanks gave the mujahedeen stingers which played a big part in the defeat of the Russians , look how that came back to bite them .

kildare lad · 05-07-2021 2:15pm

FileNotFound wrote: »

In fairness to Afghanistan the US invaded to hunt the orchestrators of the twin towers.

They succeeded in killing the man they hunted so have no interest in the nation now.

They killed him 10 years ago

05-07-2021 2:16pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Will China step in? Maybe not militarily but economically?

They've already started negotiating their Belt and Road Initiative.

kildare lad · 05-07-2021 2:19pm

Hande hoche! wrote: »

The Taliban are also capturing a tremendous amount of equipment from the Afghan government. A blog crunched numbers, with the group capturing over 700 jeeps and trucks recently.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2021/06/disaster-at-hand-documenting-afghan.html

I've seen twitter posts where scores of ANA soldiers are surrendering to the Taliban . I also seen another where the Taliban are in a warehouse full of American weapons . Sure a lot of arms Isis ended up with were American also .

kildare lad · 05-07-2021 2:27pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Will China step in? Maybe not militarily but economically?

If they have natural resources I'm sure they might , the Chinese and Russians are buying up a lot of Africa at the minute , America's really taken their eye of the ball on the global stage. I'm not a fan of American foriegn policy but I wonder how far China are willing to push it in their quest for global power , they're already devastating on the enviorment , never mind they've already pushing a lot of animals to extinction.

Hande hoche! · 05-07-2021 2:45pm

kildare lad wrote: »

I've seen twitter posts where scores of ANA soldiers are surrendering to the Taliban . I also seen another where the Taliban are in a warehouse full of American weapons . Sure a lot of arms Isis ended up with were American also .

It does raise an interesting question. In time for the twentieth anniversary of 9/11, will the Taliban be in control of the majority of the country or even at the outskirts of Kabul?

riffmongous · 05-07-2021 3:11pm

kildare lad wrote: »

Pakistan I'd say , it's kind of ironic that the yanks gave the mujahedeen stingers which played a big part in the defeat of the Russians , look how that came back to bite them .

Exactly, the role of Pakistan in all of this can't be ignored. Unless they are dealt with the Taliban will never be stopped. It's also worth bearing in mind that during the time when the Taliban were in charge they never actually controlled the entire country, the northern regions with their different ethnic mix and distance from Pakistan were controlled by different 'warlords' and managed to resistance the Taliban without much foreign support, at least up until shortly before 9/11

kildare lad · 05-07-2021 3:14pm

Hande hoche! wrote: »

It does raise an interesting question. In time for the twentieth anniversary of 9/11, will the Taliban be in control of the majority of the country or even at the outskirts of Kabul?

It looks like they're working their way there . I'm sure there'll be a lot more fighting as they get nearer . I'm sure there's plenty of people that don't wanna end up in the talibans hand . We'll probably see a mass migrantion again into Europe . Will the Americans help out the afghan government with drone and airstrikes if they do come near kabul ?? Whatever happens it look likes it'll be back to square one after tens of thousands of deaths and trillions down the drain. I think a few in the white house wanted bin laden to escape so the neocons could push the axis of evil crap in the middle east but iraq didn't turn out as easy as they thought. How George bush , Blair and Co have gotten away with the crap they've caused is beyond me

US and Nato withdrawal from Afghanistan...- threadbanned users in OP

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