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US and Nato withdrawal from Afghanistan...- threadbanned users in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,266 ✭✭✭✭smurfjed


    There will be a civil war there in the next 12 months, it’s either that or people will end up as slaves once again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Fascinating. I remember watching a documentary about a group of US army engineers building infrastructure in an Afghani town - a completely Syphisian task.

    They'd put in telecoms/electricity infrastructure etc for the locals and a week later the copper and anything of value would all be stripped out and sold on the black market. The local security services were constantly high on opium and would fire randomly into the distance at the walls of the town when American officers came around to make it look like they were doing something. The local tribal chief who the Americans had to deal with to get anything done was known to be molesting teenage boys. Thankless endeavor and must have been like banging your head against a brick wall.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,747 ✭✭✭✭wes


    Yeah I am well aware that their are plenty of Pashtuns in Pakistan as well, but it should be noted none of the Afghan factions including the Taliban recognize the Durand line. The ISI has helped the Mujahedeen and allied with the Taliban to varying degrees in the past, but as can be seen by Pakistan fencing off the border with Afghanistan, those days are long gone.

    You even have Pakistan taking in Afghan soldiers who fled from the Taliban these days:



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,747 ✭✭✭✭wes


    They didn't just come from Pakistani tribal area's, they very much were educated in Afghanistan as well. The border area, when the Taliban was created, was pretty easy for people to move back and forth. A lot of the people who live their, have never accepted the Durand line border. To say the Taliban invaded is imo absurd. They were part of the mujahedeen as well and split from them.

    The origin is gone over here:



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    The point stands that the Taliban movement can be said to come from without to a large extent and large proportions of people making up the Taliban movement are Pashtuns of Pakistani origin. It's been that way for a very long time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,747 ✭✭✭✭wes


    Sure, an origin they reject as they don't recognize the border and never have.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Depends on who you're asking. Someone from the 50% of the non-Pashtun population of Afghanistan may not regard Pashtun militants from Peshwar as their national brethren and would have a hard time believing they are operating in their interests, and there's likely a plurality of Afghan Pashtuns that have had a gutful of the Taliban movement as well.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    The problem is the us government never built up a proper civil society with a strong army and police force the country was held together by currupt officials and bribery of local leaders

    It's a bit like Lebanon in that respect. Thev taliban have endless support from Pakistan they are likely to take over the whole country

    The air strikes can slow them down but how long will the air strikes continue

    As we saw in Vietnam America could not defeat an insurgent army with basic weapons who have endless time and energy to fight maybe the Un could go in and stop the march of the taliban



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,747 ✭✭✭✭wes


    Well, then they need to ask their government to recognize the Durand line then, as no faction in Afghanistan recognizes it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    For the most part, I doubt most local tribal leaders or Afghan ethnicities think beyond their valley or village hinterland. The Durand Line objection is very much a Pashtun preoccupation, an ethnicity that has dominated Afghanistani politics by dint of being a plurality of the population.

    You're sexing-up other ethnicities' objection to the division of historical Pashtun lands. Tajiks for instance, are predominant in the Afghan army and are naturally wary of Pashtun hegemony in Afghanistan - if you're trying to convince me that they are hardcore anti-Durand Line in their outlook, you have a way to go. Indeed Tajiks were front and centre in both the Afghan civil wars as they feared Pashtun dominance.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,747 ✭✭✭✭wes


    Then, I am sure we will see the Afghan government accept the Duand line any day now then. I look forward to it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    You're missing the point. The Durand Line objection is almost exclusively a Pashtun preoccupation. I'm not playing gotcha here.

    The point was well made that the Taliban are a Pashtun hegemonic phenomenon that is active both sides of the Pak-Afghan border, then a further point that they couldn't possibly be exogenous to Afghanistan because Pashtuns are native to Afghanistan. All well and good, but ask a Tajik, ask a Hazara or Uzbek if they think a military force with a large Pakistani origin contingent is 'of the soil' so to speak. I'd doubt it very much.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,747 ✭✭✭✭wes


    I have yet to see any such sentiment that the Taliban are foreign force from the aforementioned groups. You seem to be putting words in their mouths.

    Regardless, the border is manned these days, and the current Taliban are very much of Afghanistan these days.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    You must have missed that whole Northern Alliance thing then. Tajik dominated (with other assorted ethnicities) who very much regarded the Taliban as both a Pashtun hegemonic threat and that it was powered from across the Pak-Afghan border (in more than one way as we know).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    The sentiment on the ground...

    The sentiment that the Taliban are harboured, sponsored and manned (in a significant sense) from Pakistan is widespread in Afghanistan. And you can be damn sure among its minority ethnicities as well.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,580 ✭✭✭jmreire


    I think that I mentioned that when you leave the cities, and go to the rural areas, you are travelling back in time. This is very noticable in the way of life, and has not changed in generations. This is especially true of their way of thinking, it has not changed either. They have completely different outlook on life, even to the molesting case you mentioned, and this includes corruption,which is what eventually defeated the US. It was common practice for the US to give contracts to the local warlords to transport their supplies to the huge US Military bases like Kandahar. It was the most cost efficient and safest way to get the job done. Even if the same warlords were actively involved in attacking ANA / US forces. It was just business, and nothing personal...When the US started to wind down their activities, and needed less contracts, there was a corrosponding rise in lawless criminality, and attacks . Basically, warlords ran the Country. But maybe the 20 years of education ( especially for women) will prove to be the most important benefit to Afghans.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,580 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Historically, imposed borders have rarely been successfull,and to this day its understandable why in parts of the world they a have proved to be disaterous. And the longer the borders are, the more porous they become.But with Afghanistan, we are where we are borderwise, and with a duly elected Government, endorsed by a Loya Jirga. And to my mind anyway, and call it what you want, but when an army from another state ( in this case Pakistan) entered Afghanistan uninvited they were in fact invading, At the present time Pastuns in Afghanistan make up 42% of the total population, and are the majority etnic group, ( Yes , I know that there's more Pashtuns living outside Afghanistan borders ) But had there been no interference by Pakistan, would there even have been any Taliban?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,580 ✭✭✭jmreire


    And not only the Tajik / Hazara / Usbek + others, but home grown Afghan Pashtuns, don't want Taliban rule. How could they, when they have previous experience of Taliban barbarities? . The Taliban were and are being supported by the usual anti-US suspects...Russia, Iran and Pakistan. This time round though, they will meet much stiffer resistance.Ismail Khan is organising the defence of Herat, and I'm pretty sure that the Northern Alliance will be active too. Currently, there are mass protests in the main cities, with people congregating on the roof tops and streets shouting "Allahu Akbar" in defience of the Talibar. Will be interesting to see what happens when the US leaves, will the Pakistan-Iran-Russian support continue, especially if / when the Taliban threaten these Countrys? Putin has already offered military help and support to the Tajiks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,901 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog




  • Registered Users Posts: 803 ✭✭✭Relax brah


    Taliban are not waiting around and will have control of that entire country before long.

    What excuse will the US have for that?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,901 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    After 20 years it could not be made work. The country is just ungovernable and can't be changed. At some point you have to recognise that and leave them to it.

    Best can be hoped for is that the seeds of a future massive terrorist atrocity are not being planted atm with the dark age theocratic despots coming back and those they'll harbour.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Europe needs to get serious about it's border security to prevent any future attacks. American geographic isolation will provide them with a huge helping hand against any major attacks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Had a look at this to see if what I instinctually thought to be true was correct.

    Out of the 139 attacks in Europe ascribed to radical Islamists by Europol (both fatal and non-fatal) between 2006 and 2020, just a single attack was perpetrated by an individual of Afghan origin - and that was a non-fatal stabbing in Germany. So zero terrorist fatalities at the hands of Afghani origin people in Europe.

    For a country that has a significant refugee population in Europe and has been the staging ground for an occupation and conflict involving pretty much every Western country (even the Irish Ranger Wing were there on missions), I think that's pretty remarkable.

    Terrorism in Europe appears to be almost exclusively an Arab phenomenon, with second or third-generation Pakistani youths thrown into the mix in the UK. Afghan settlers in Europe don't appear to pose much of a terrorist danger at all. Surprising, but there you go.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    A good analysis of how the current situation came to be in Afghanistan.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,901 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Tonight the Allies are sending troops and resources to evacuate their embassies and other staff from Kabul.



  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I think you have a list of countries that America doesn't like there. The Taliban's traditional funding came from Saudi Arabia and the US. When fighting Russia. Pakistan is definitely involved.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,404 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    Most powerful nation in the world couldn't kill of a few bearded nutjobs. See they never even tried, they just hung around keeping the peace, not kicking ass.

    Funny how a few guys in a pickup truck can take over a country in a few weeks, and the US couldn't do it in 12 years



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭ShatterAlan



    The Taliban have killed a fraction of the people that the Americans have done in 20 years. The Americans could not give a tinker's cuss about women being allowed to wear what they want or kids flying kites or people dancing and/or listening to a fcuking radio. They were there to put a ring of steel around China and to exploit Afghanistan's mineral wealth. They were beaten out of the country like everyone else. If you are so cock-a-hoop about peoples' rights and women and chopping off peoples hands for stealing a bicycle then you should have been screaming at the KSA, Kuwait and Qatar 40 years ago...not Afghanistan today.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭ShatterAlan



    China is now in control of the situation. Afghanistan will be a paradise in 10 years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,515 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    The smart move would be pay off the strongest warlord(s) China could work with, rape the country for resources and let the country go to hell.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 160 ✭✭ChickenDish


    Not long now before the Taliban will be back in control, good old America and their proven track record of having their asses handed to them yet again.

    Wonder what country they will invade next to save the world from terror.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,602 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    I'm not sure thats true..."The Taliban and other anti-government elements have been blamed for 4 out of every 5 civilians who were killed in Afghanistan last year - continuing a rising trend since 2007. The number of civilian deaths resulting from pro-government forces has by contrast fallen by 23%.."

    Some how I doubt anyone keeping an accurate tally what the Taliban do in their own area's.

    Not that it made any sense for the US to get involved in Afghanistan.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2019/5/28/why-is-afghanistan-unable-to-extract-its-vast-mineral-wealth



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,503 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    I'm in agreement with the policy of withdrawal, it's not the Wests job to keep Afghanistan in check, if the Afghan people want the taliban back ,that's their choice


    Numerous regimes the world over are just as bad , Saudi Arabia to name one ,only difference is the fancy cars



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,580 ✭✭✭jmreire



    If that were true, then why did they not invade Afghanistan earlier than after 2011? And when they did, they behaved very unlike previous invaders have done ( and the complete opposite of what the present taliban invaders are and wil continue doing) They spent billions on education, infrastructure, Hospitals, Airports, you name it and they tried to imorove it. As for stealing Afghan mineral wealth, do you have evidence of that happening in the 20 odd years they were there? ( on the other hand, the Chinese have been doing it for quite awhile, due to deals made with corrupt Afghan officials,) I asked earlier in this forum, if there was a referendum held in Afghanistan regarding the presence of the Americans as to whether they should stay or go what would the outcome be... Now you have an answer ,thousands fleeing the Taliban advance, the barbaric version of Islam already being inforced, stonings, cutting off of hands and feet, women confined to their homes, girls schools being closed. the UN have asked the sourrounding Countrys to keep their borders with Afghanistan open. If you want to talk about death tolls, then dont forget to include the thousands killed due to Taliban policies which put the economy into a nose dive, food production dropped to the extent that there were famines, health services deterioted to the extent that they were only barely functioning. And many thousands died, and only for the intervention of the UN, many more would have died, much more died this way then by bomb or bullet, and the Taliban killed thousands this way too.

    Read on BBC News:-

    Afghanistan: Panic and disbelief as thousands flee Taliban onslaught


    Post edited by jmreire on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    They don't want the Taliban back. They think the Taliban are better.

    People welcomed the Nazis at the start. And some also ISIS. They thought these were better than the status quo. These extremist groups always start off mild but progressively get more extreme until in the Talibans case they become pre stone age in their outlook, particularly relating to women.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    The Trump deal definitely sold out the Afghan people. It was a thumbs up to attack the Afghan government and they said they wouldn't intervene as long as AQ etc weren't involved.

    Even a token US presence was enough to scare off the Taliban from launching full scale offensives.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,580 ✭✭✭jmreire


    After the Russians left, and the warlords started a war amongst themselves, the Taliban were welcomed back then as they restored the peace to most ( not all ) of Afghanistan. But that soon wore off when they saw the kind hardline Islam the Taliban use in governance. Had sept 11th never happened I think that, Afghans would have got rid of the taliban themselves. This time round, they know what to expect ( despite Taliban claims in Doha that they have learned lessons from the past, and will not make the same mistakes this time. IE: "Softer version of Islam) But on the ground in Afghanistan, Taliban have already started to enforce their strict version again. No, they don't think the Taliban are better, they know from experience what to expect,,,,and its worse, far worse than what they have being experiencing the last 20 years. Do you think that a Taliban Govt, will be coruption free?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,580 ✭✭✭jmreire


    But they dont, thats the problem....they see the Taliban as a tool used by Pakistan to control Afghanistan. The Afghan people voted the present Govt into power, and that was their choice, and not the Taliban, with them they have no choice..they are an armed invasion. But for 20 years the US did try to improve Life there, and to an extent, they have made a great difference compared to Taliban times. But it was never going to not have an end game. And it was always an uphill battle against corruption that finally caused them to leave. Its the same corruption that is now causing the ANA to fail against the Taliban..when elite Afghan commando units dont even have enough bullets to fight with, due to levels of corruption at Govt / Military level. Its easy to see how the Taliban are making spectacular gains.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,477 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    What a total mess the Brits and US have left behind. Rory is an intelligent eloquent man, and he's on the money here.


    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1426087277785190438



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,503 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    Lots of Islamic countries have stone age attitudes to women



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Someone was talking about US killing civilians in Afghanistan in drone strikes and so on ,over 10 years it's something like 2700-3000 (claimed) during the same 10 year period the Taliban accounted for close to 30,000 civilian deaths and that increased every year ,at the same time thousands still get killed and maimed by russian landmines left behind from their failed invasion and occupation ,

    I'd love to see the figures of exactly how many tailban forces currently fighting in Afghanistan and what the loses they would be suffering if the Afghan army put up an actual fight ,

    There Americans are still carrying out airstrikes ,they only announced a few days ago they were sending B52s and C130 gunships to provide some support to Afghan forces



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The US is damned if you do, damned if you don't in this situation. On the one hand do they allow terrorists to just take over a country? On the other hand do they really want to be getting involved in another intervention?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,515 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    I don't see any point in wasting any more blood and treasure on it. You can't set every country with a terrible regime and complicated backstory right, and you certainly won't be thanked for trying.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,647 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    A terrible irony as the 20th anniversary of 9/11 nears.

    All we're short is for the Taliban to fly a plane into the WTC.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    You couldn't script it. The Taliban will be back in charge probably by the anniversary. Basically, they won. It's sickening.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Leave the people who trust to protect and defend your country , with little or no pay ,supplies and equipment what did they (Afghan government) think would happen the moment Pakistan and other's said lads off you go back to Afghanistan and in a few weeks you will be in charge again.

    Wonder when our government will volunteer the defence forces to go on a UN mission to support the afgans



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,989 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    20yrs and trillions of dollars totally wasted. Not to mention lives lost.

    Country worse than when they came in. What was the point?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Those trillions of dollars made a lot of people rich I suppose. Taken from the taxpayers and redistributed via war to whomever own the weapons manufacturers and all other associated industries etc.

    Depressing, but same as it ever was.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321



    AQ will be back in business in Afghanistan before the year is out and they are probably heavily involved in the current fighing.

    AQ only know one thing, international terrorism.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling




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