Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

Hubertj · 10-06-2021 12:02PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Have you got examples of government meddling that resulted in downward pressure on rents/ house prices?

Any examples of government intervention having any positive impact on the property market? That’s my point.

jill_valentine · 10-06-2021 12:03PM

awec wrote: »

As in what happens if you lose or need to leave your current job?

Exactly, yeah. I come from the country and you're just so reliant on being able to or wanting to stay where you're working forever, and it's precarious. If the big factory or one of the five or six companies in the nearest business park go, you're in big trouble.

In Dublin, if my company fell over tomorrow, I could be very confident of getting something within a few weeks, no matter how crappy, to keep the lights on. Some of the folks I went to school with stayed in around the village and when they're out of work it's months. I would have been terrified of buying a house outside of Dublin until recently for that reason, it's a very big bet.

Hubertj · 10-06-2021 12:08PM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/imposing-six-bed-victorian-on-ailesbury-road-for-4-85m-1.4586639?mode=amp

Sold for €2.85m in 2015, now asking €4.85m which is being described, if attainable, as "a nice return".

https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/details/saint_peters_91_ailesbury_road_donnybrook_dublin_4_co_dublin_ireland-144035/

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/st-peter-s-91-ailesbury-road-dublin-4-dublin-d04f9f2/4507050

Looks like it doesn’t have a back garden. Pictures only show a small terrace?

IAmTheReign · 10-06-2021 12:11PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Not at all I said 50% - 75% within two years. The start of this fall would begin around July/ August. It's the 10th June. Still c. three months to go.

If I'm right and it's even quicker, even I will be slightly amazed.

You said this back in November.

PropQueries wrote:

If you’re willing to pay asking, I would call the EA and say you will pay asking but no more and you need the answer by Friday or you will look elsewhere. Unless you’re incredibly unlucky and someone else falls for his selling technique, he’ll ring and offer it to you. The demand isn’t there so I wouldn’t fall for the sales tactic.

You didn’t mention the asking price or where the property is, but if you’re willing to pay asking, you should also expect the value to fall by c. 50% over the next two years and by much more over the lifetime of your mortgage if your getting one IMO

This should become clear over the next 6 months as the fog of COVID goes away. Demand wasn’t there pre-COVID and COVID has proved a godsend to the EAs covering this part up.

But if you need to buy, you need to buy.

So back in November you said that prices would drop by 20% over the next two years and that it would begin in 6 months. 7 months later and it's still 2 years to see these fabled property price drops?

PropQueries · 10-06-2021 12:24PM

IAmTheReign wrote: »

You said this back in November.

So back in November you said that prices would drop by 20% over the next two years and that it would begin in 6 months. 7 months later and it's still 2 years to see these fabled property price drops?

2 years from November 2020 is November 2022... and I said "as the fog of COVID goes away".

It's only beginning to clear now

Hence the recent Facebook, AIB etc. moves.

Amadan Dubh · 10-06-2021 12:39PM

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/st-peter-s-91-ailesbury-road-dublin-4-dublin-d04f9f2/4507050

Looks like it doesn’t have a back garden. Pictures only show a small terrace?

Correct. According to the IT;

While the gardens were reduced many years ago to accommodate an apartment block next door, what remains to the rear is a paved area with a large cut-stone shed, and a fine-sized plot with both vehicular and pedestrian access to the front.

It has also "remained idle" for ten years. I presume this means vacant?

€4.85m - not a hope.

JimmyVik · 10-06-2021 12:42PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Have you got examples of government meddling that resulted in downward pressure on rents/ house prices?

Im afraid its upward only pressure on housing from our government.

JimmyVik · 10-06-2021 12:45PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

So all these staff will want to come work in Ireland, despite many on here saying that people will want to leave Ireland because of tax, costs etc.

Actually they do want to come to work in Ireland.
There are 10s of thousands of people who have moved to Ireland to work.
And many more expected in the future.

Hubertj · 10-06-2021 12:51PM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Correct. According to the IT;

It has also "remained ideal" for ten years. I presume this means vacant?

€4.85m - not a hope.

I have no idea about the price but I don’t see the point in having a very large family home with no garden. For me, the lack of garden will make it difficult to sell.

IAmTheReign · 10-06-2021 12:56PM

PropQueries wrote: »

2 years from November 2020 is November 2022... and I said "as the fog of COVID goes away".

It's only beginning to clear now

Hence the recent Facebook, AIB etc. moves.

Your prediction 7 months ago was that prices would start to drop in 6 months. Your prediction today was that it will happen in the next 3 months.

Your prediction 7 months ago was that prices would drop 50% in the next 2 years. Your prediction today was that prices would drop 50% in the next 2 years.

Your attempts to predict property price drops is like someone trying to find the end of a rainbow. It's always just beyond the horizon.

JimmyVik · 10-06-2021 01:00PM

IAmTheReign wrote: »

Your prediction 7 months ago was that prices would start to drop in 6 months. Your prediction today was that it will happen in the next 3 months.

Your prediction 7 months ago was that prices would drop 50% in the next 2 years. Your prediction today was that prices would drop 50% in the next 2 years.

Your attempts to predict property price drops is like someone trying to find the end of a rainbow. It's always just beyond the horizon.

Thats how property price predictions go

Ive been pushing my predictions of a housing collapse out not for the last 4 years.

Cyrus · 10-06-2021 01:03PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Not at all I said 50% - 75% within two years. The start of this fall would begin around July/ August. It's the 10th June. Still c. three months to go.

If I'm right and it's even quicker, even I will be slightly amazed.

the start of the fall? so now we get 24 months from july august of your ramblings about the massive fall in property prices

i thought it would be over in september.

Sheeps · 10-06-2021 01:05PM

Cyrus · 10-06-2021 01:08PM

Ozark707 wrote: »

3 months

which makes sense as you wont fall foul of tax residency laws, but how practical is that for most people?

you need 2 properties really.

SmokyMo · 10-06-2021 01:14PM

Those us housing market threads are everywhere now

https://twitter.com/APhilosophae/status/1402434266970140676?s=20

Yurt2 · 10-06-2021 01:20PM

Sheeps wrote: »

This thread is the best description of what is currently going on with politics around the Irish housing crisis. Only it's about New York.

Except the man with the simplistic orange tale is wrong.

If building masses of new houses brought prices down as a matter of natural economic law, why did house prices explode in Ireland when we were building close to 100k houses a year in 2005-2006? Why do house prices continue to spiral out of control in places like Australia despite huge amount of units constantly coming on stream.

The supply and demand parrots really really really need to start thinking harder or enroll in an economics course because it's simply the wrong answer and repeating it doesn't make it true.

JimmyVik · 10-06-2021 01:23PM

Yurt! wrote: »

Except the man with the simplistic orange tale is wrong.

If building masses of new houses brought prices down as a matter of natural economic law, why did house prices explode in Ireland when we were building close to 100k houses a year in 2005-2006? Why do house prices continue to spiral out of control in places like Australia despite huge amount of units constantly coming on stream.

The supply and demand parrots really really really need to start thinking harder or enroll in an economics course because it's simply the wrong answer and repeating it doesn't make it true.

Demand was massive back then. Dont you remember.
It was only after the crash that demand plummeted.
And now instead of 100% mortgages fueling the demand. Its councils and REITs coming in with the money to suck it all up.

Yurt2 · 10-06-2021 01:32PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

Demand was massive back then. Dont you remember.
It was only after the crash that demand plummeted.
And now instead of 100% mortgages fueling the demand. Its councils and REITs coming in with the money to suck it all up.

Mostly incorrect. I do remember, I had family members who thought they had become JR Ewing from Dallas overnight. Demand from buy to let landlords who were convinced by banks and media that they had figured out a free money forever scheme was massive. Real demand (natural demographic growth and immigraton) was relatively high, but 100k units a year was about half of what was being constructed in the UK at the time. It was lunacy - and supply and demand was only a marginal driver of the activity.

Sheeps · 10-06-2021 01:37PM

Yurt! wrote: »

Except the man with the simplistic orange tale is wrong.

If building masses of new houses brought prices down as a matter of natural economic law, why did house prices explode in Ireland when we were building close to 100k houses a year in 2005-2006? Why do house prices continue to spiral out of control in places like Australia despite huge amount of units constantly coming on stream.

The supply and demand parrots really really really need to start thinking harder or enroll in an economics course because it's simply the wrong answer and repeating it doesn't make it true.

The example you've given in 2005-2006 was literally down to demand and supply. House prices increased because there was not enough supply to meet the demand. It just so happened that the demand was artificially high because of lack of lending regulations, immoral lending practices and the availability of credit to the general public. People were buying 3 or 4 houses back then, being allowed to borrow up to 110% of the house price.

PropQueries · 10-06-2021 01:41PM

Cyrus wrote: »

the start of the fall? so now we get 24 months from july august of your ramblings about the massive fall in property prices i thought it would be over in september.

I believe I was very clear about my assumptions and when they would start to take effect from the start?

The new lockdowns at the start of the year just temporarily held back that flood of second-hand and probate sales about to hit the market.

I would also reckon many of the properties owned by some of the funds that haven't managed to lock in those long-term lease agreements will start to re-enter the market in mass in the next few months. They will definitely want to take advantage of that first mover advantage thing before what's happening begins to click with the local average investor.

And on top of that, the Banking and Payments Federation Ireland predicted today that we will most likely build a similar number of new homes this year as to last i.e. c. 21,000.

Yurt2 · 10-06-2021 01:43PM

Sheeps wrote: »

The example you've given in 2005-2006 was literally down to demand and supply. House prices increased because there was not enough supply to meet the demand. It just so happened that the demand was artificially high because of lack of lending regulations, immoral lending practices and the availability of credit to the general public.

Johnny and Mary public servant drinking an out of control bank's kool-aid in a cheap money environment thinking a property portfolio of a dozen rental units (that will appreciate until time immemorial) is natural has very little to do with orthodox supply and demand.

There'll always be a 'demand' for fantasy land get rich quick schemes. Was the lending and construction at the time linked to actual demographic and immigration need? Again, only if you believe in fairytales.

The proposition that constructing units will bring down prices as a matter of natural economic law is false and has been proven false in many circumstances; which is the crux of your and Mr Orange NYC's simplistic argument. One of the examples is Ireland in the early 2000s. - if almost unlimited supply far in excess of need brings down property prices, why did we see property prices metastasize out of all control? Because if what you say is true, then prices would have cooled. They didn't, the opposite happened and they went wild.

Sheeps · 10-06-2021 01:44PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I believe I was very clear about my assumptions and when they would start to take effect from the start?

The new lockdowns at the start of the year just temporarily held back that flood of second-hand and probate sales about to hit the market.

I would also reckon many of the properties owned by some of the funds that haven't managed to lock in those long-term lease agreements will start to re-enter the market in mass in the next few months. They will definitely want to take advantage of that first mover advantage thing before what's happening begins to click with the local average investor.

And on top of that, the Banking and Payments Federation Ireland predicted today that we will most likely build a similar number of new homes this year as to last i.e. c. 21,000.

There is absolutely nothing going on right now that would lead me to believe that there is a property crash coming. If anything we can expect houses to rise for the next while, as people spend their lockdown savings.

Marius34 · 10-06-2021 01:45PM

Sheeps wrote: »

The example you've given in 2005-2006 was literally down to demand and supply. House prices increased because there was not enough supply to meet the demand. It just so happened that the demand was artificially high because of lack of lending regulations, immoral lending practices and the availability of credit to the general public. People were buying 3 or 4 houses back then, being allowed to borrow up to 110% of the house price.

One important thing needs to be added on demand side was inflation and immigration.
Due to ongoing inflation, although by many were seeing as house prices are overvalued, people were speculating that currency would devalue fairly quick.

Amadan Dubh · 10-06-2021 01:51PM

Sheeps wrote: »

There is absolutely nothing going on right now that would lead me to believe that there is a property crash coming. If anything we can expect houses to rise for the next while, as people spend their lockdown savings.

The thing is, an extra 10k in savings the last year doesn't mean a whole lot if you are on the same salary considering borrowing limits. Instead of having, for example 10% of a 400k house price as a deposit you now have 12.5%. You're borrowing 350k instead of 360k over the 25/30 years. That's not going to further inflate house prices. The last year has been a dead cat bounce against the declines already taking place pre covid.

Yurt2 · 10-06-2021 01:53PM

Marius34 wrote: »

One important thing needs to be added on demand side was inflation and immigration.
Due to ongoing inflation, although by many were seeing as house prices are overvalued, people were speculating that currency would devalue fairly quick.

What inflation? Inflation, then as now was tightly controlled within bands by the ECB. The inflation was modest as per stated policy and there was no one running around worried about the euro devaluing.

enricoh · 10-06-2021 01:55PM

Sheeps wrote: »

There is absolutely nothing going on right now that would lead me to believe that there is a property crash coming. If anything we can expect houses to rise for the next while, as people spend their lockdown savings.

The government (the dominant player in the market according to no less than the taoiseach) surely has to tighten spending on housing with all the financial headwinds coming thick and fast now.

As prices continue to rise more and more people are saying I'll have one too to social housing.
I don't think it's any way sustainable.

Marius34 · 10-06-2021 02:09PM

Yurt! wrote: »

What inflation? Inflation, then as now was tightly controlled within bands by the ECB. The inflation was modest as per stated policy and there was no one running around worried about the euro devaluing.

Between 2000 to 2008, inflation was fluctuating between 2%-6%, averaging around 4%. The income increase where growing even faster.

timmyntc · 10-06-2021 02:24PM

Yurt! wrote: »

Johnny and Mary public servant drinking an out of control bank's kool-aid in a cheap money environment thinking a property portfolio of a dozen rental units (that will appreciate until time immemorial) is natural has very little to do with orthodox supply and demand.

There'll always be a 'demand' for fantasy land get rich quick schemes. Was the lending and construction at the time linked to actual demographic and immigration need? Again, only if you believe in fairytales.

The proposition that constructing units will bring down prices as a matter of natural economic law is false and has been proven false in many circumstances; which is the crux of your and Mr Orange NYC's simplistic argument. One of the examples is Ireland in the early 2000s. - if almost unlimited supply far in excess of need brings down property prices, why did we see property prices metastasize out of all control? Because if what you say is true, then prices would have cooled. They didn't, the opposite happened and they went wild.

Yes and as we keep saying - it was a bubble inflated by wild speculation and cheap credit, and when it burst houses became very cheap (over cheap tbh).
That does not disprove supply and demand - if anything it reinforces its legitimacy.

Amadan Dubh · 10-06-2021 02:24PM

Marius34 wrote: »

Between 2000 to 2008, inflation was fluctuating between 2%-6%, averaging around 4%. The income increase where growing even faster.

For workers who have kept their job through the pandemic they would want to have seen their salaries increase 10% in order to feel a benefit this year. Otherwise they will be in the same position financially as last year. If a salary increase was not given last year because rot the pandemic well then I hope those workers are prepared to ask for 10% this year unless they want to feel the brunt of inflation over the coming months.

SmokyMo · 10-06-2021 02:36PM

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

For workers who have kept their job through the pandemic they would want to have seen their salaries increase 10% in order to feel a benefit this year. Otherwise they will be in the same position financially as last year. If a salary increase was not given last year because rot the pandemic well then I hope those workers are prepared to ask for 10% this year unless they want to feel the brunt of inflation over the coming months.

How did you come to 10% figure?

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting