Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

I would think the big point here is that we have been told here that the facebooks, googles etc. can't allow their staff to work in other EU countries for tax reasons.

From what I understand, that's no longer or shortly won't be entirely true or they appear to have found a way around it.

That's a major shift, especially as the future tax battles won't be on corporation tax etc. but on employee tax. We have little leeway left in relation to reducing employee taxes. The countries these employees moved to during the pandemic will also be doing their level best to keep them there.

A significant percentage of the predictions for housing demand are based on significant continued mass net inward migration into Ireland. I guess we'll know a bit more over the coming months and how many of the employees that did leave for their home countries during the pandemic do return around c. September.

you have been told that people cant work where they like, there are tax implications.

in this case facebook has indicated that there are 7 countries where certain people can work from (where you will find they already have sizeable operations and a permanent establishment).

Of course for the people themselves it could be difficult, they need to be in an office more than half the time, so if thats in another territory one assumes they may end up becoming personally tax resident in that jurisdiction but that is their issue not their employers.

but of course people wont look at whats actually happening and instead point to the headline and say i told you so :rolleyes:

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

And do you think that such issues (maybe not property related) do not occur in Ireland?

Sorry misread your post, thought it read outside Ireland

Applies to many issues not just property

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

you have been told that people cant work where they like, there are tax implications.

in this case facebook has indicated that there are 7 countries where certain people can work from (where you will find they already have sizeable operations and a permanent establishment).

Of course for the people themselves it could be difficult, they need to be in an office more than half the time, so if thats in another territory one assumes they may end up becoming personally tax resident in that jurisdiction but that is their issue not their employers.

but of course people wont look at whats actually happening and instead point to the headline and say i told you so :rolleyes:

Some of them seemed to manage to up sticks and move back to their home countries fairly quickly and without much hassle during the pandemic.

JimmyVik

Dav010 wrote: »

Jeez, if it wasn’t an issue, why would it be in the news? This is a major policy shift by a large employer which paves the way for employees in other countries to work for FB’s Irish office.

Have you watched the news the last few years

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

I would think the big point here is that we have been told here that the facebooks, googles etc. can't allow their staff to work in other EU countries for tax reasons.

From what I understand, that's no longer or shortly won't be entirely true or they appear to have found a way around it.

That's a major shift, especially as the future tax battles won't be on corporation tax etc. but on employee tax. We have little leeway left in relation to reducing employee taxes. The countries these employees moved to during the pandemic will also be doing their level best to keep them there.

A significant percentage of the predictions for housing demand are based on significant continued mass net inward migration into Ireland. I guess we'll know a bit more over the coming months and how many of the employees that did leave for their home countries during the pandemic do return around c. September.

You were told that people can't work from wherever they like for tax reasons, as this article confirms. What this article explains is that a subset of staff may be allowed to work outside the state in a select few countries.

This is not a "major" shift. If Facebook came out and said "our staff can work remotely from wherever they want" then that's a big change. But you will of course note that their announcement is far more nuanced than this.

Of course, completely unsurprisingly this has been interpreted by some as the MNC jobs are all about to leave.

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

Some of them seemed to manage to up sticks and move back to their home countries fairly quickly and without much hassle during the pandemic.

And those people will be quids in fine if facebook have an office in their home countries and their salary will be an Irish salary.
Which begs the question why they didnt just stay home and work for facebook in their home country to start with.
Facebook have already said last year that salaries will be based on where the employee is based.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

You were told that people can't work from wherever they like for tax reasons, as this article confirms (and so hopefully this no longer needs to be explained). What this article explains is that a subset of staff may be allowed to work outside the state.

This is not a "major" shift. If Facebook came out and said "staff can work remotely from wherever they want" then that's a big change. But you will of course note that their announcement is far more nuanced than this.

The way I see it is that this is baby steps before a giant leap. They have been testing the waters over the past year (because they had little choice).

Now, they're implementing it for a subset of staff. Once that works out, it doesn't take much to scale it up. That's what these companies are all about. Scaling up and doing it quickly and efficiently.

And, that's definitely not good for the residential property market in our cities in short, medium and long run, especially for all those luxury apartments.

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

The way I see it is that this is baby steps before a giant leap. They have been testing the waters over the past year (because they had little choice).

Now, they're implementing it for a subset of staff. Once that works out, it doesn't take much to scale it up. That's what these companies are all about. Scaling up and doing it quickly and efficiently.

And, that's definitely not good for the residential property market in our cities in short, medium and long run, especially for all those luxury apartments.

Im bearish on property, but i think you are reading too much into this.
A pandemic for the last year and a half hasnt had the effect most of us thought it would on the economy. I doubt an announcement about something they already do from Facebook will have much of an effect.
I may be wrong. I was wrong last year

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

The way I see it is that this is baby steps before a giant leap. They have been testing the waters over the past year (because they had little choice).

Now, they're implementing it for a subset of staff. Once that works out, it doesn't take much to scale it up. That's what these companies are all about. Scaling up and doing it quickly and efficiently.

And, that's definitely not good for the residential property market in our cities in short, medium and long run, especially for all those luxury apartments.

This is where you are making a leap. You are assuming that if they can do it for a few staff, they can easily do it for all.

Facebook are building a brand new HQ in Ballsbridge. Do you think they're building this for their staff who live in Poland? Google have submitted plans last week to build more office space. Do you think they're doing this for their staff who live in Spain? Apple secured more office space in Cork a few months ago. Is this for their staff who live in the UK? TikTok took out a ten year lease on a very large office recently, is this for their staff who will live in France?

As with everything, things are far more nuanced than some want to believe.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

This is where you are making a leap. You are assuming that if they can do it for a few staff, they can easily do it for all.

Facebook are building a brand new HQ in Ballsbridge. Do you think they're building this for their staff who live in Poland? Google have submitted plans last week to build more office space. Do you think they're doing this for their staff who live in Spain?

Both in the pipeline pre-covid and pre-global tax reforms being accellerated.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

The way I see it is that this is baby steps before a giant leap.

of course you do.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Some of them seemed to manage to up sticks and move back to their home countries fairly quickly and without much hassle during the pandemic.

maybe so, but that doesnt mean they wont have an issue with the tax man, people are generally rather ill informed in that regard.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Both in the pipeline pre-covid and pre-global tax reforms being accellerated.

And?

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

maybe so, but that doesnt mean they wont have an issue with the tax man, people are generally rather ill informed in that regard.

They won't be ill-informed. These multinational HR departments are second to none.

Hubertj

You’d want to be some idiot to think large MNCs haven’t wired out what the tax implication will be long ago.

I said it months ago the rate would be 15% and that came form the tax team in the US MMC where I work. Their tax teams are second to none so to suggest the impending tax changes are a surprise is laughable.

Watch out for Facebook agreeing improved terms on their Dublin HQ.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

They won't be ill-informed. These multinational HR departments are second to none.

You are assuming someone will think that there could be a problem and will think to ask,

More likely they flew home and haven't been back or thought about it since.

The spanish tax authorities in particular take relish in that kind of thing.

propertyseeker

I know many in IT sector from mainland Europe who only here for job and not like Ireland very much
many of these professionals will leave as companies allow people to work from anywhere
This should make prices lower

Amadan Dubh

Hubertj wrote: »

I would agree with you. I think it will apply to people working in ad sales but we really won’t know until details are published.

I do look forward to the conspiracy theorists running wild with this. Will it lead to wide spread emigration? There are only a few weeks left until July when property prices are forecast to fall by 75%. Is this the beginning of the end?

Facebook is an advertisement company though and nothing more. Certainly, 100% of its revenue comes from ads anyway even if it has other projects. So would it not apply to a decent chunk of the staff?

The big question, as stated a few times here, is why do so many EU staff move to work in Dublin to service their own countries? I have a German fiancé who services the German market in her role and it is a question we do not understand. Further, she can move to Germany any time to work with and be employed by the German office with whom she works from Dublin. This is insurance but with Tech I would've thought there's even less of a reason for EU based employees having to relocate outside of their home country just to service that country.

The Facebook step could be the start of, not a decline in current staff numbers, but the start of muted growth, certainly not at the same level, of boots on the ground in Dublin. Hopefully this is the case as it is the best thing that could happen to the rental market and, by extension due to the rental market bubble, the purchasing market. This is based on FFG pathetic plans and SF's untested populist policies which probably won't make much of a dent in the problem.

Villa05

propertyseeker wrote:

I know many in IT sector from mainland Europe who only here for job and not like Ireland very much many of these professionals will leave as companies allow people to work from anywhere This should make prices lower

One would imagine that high demand/income professionals would be offered this perk. Irelands income tax regime would not appeal to these people

propertyseeker

Marius34 wrote: »

No it shouldn't, and unlikely to go back. The world is moving.
I don't see from where large supplies to come on market any time soon.
It's not just panic, simply there are high demands, and low supplies. It just a fairly low stocks of residential properties.

We see lot of properties added everyday in area we look at
Supply will eventually come on when government panic build to try win 2024 election

Amadan Dubh

Hubertj wrote: »

You’d want to be some idiot to think large MNCs haven’t wired out what the tax implication will be long ago.

I said it months ago the rate would be 15% and that came form the tax team in the US MMC where I work. Their tax teams are second to none so to suggest the impending tax changes are a surprise is laughable.

Watch out for Facebook agreeing improved terms on their Dublin HQ.

Are these tax teams primarily seated in London and U.S.?

propertyseeker

Villa05 wrote: »

One would imagine that high demand/income professionals would be offered this perk. Irelands income tax regime would not appeal to these people

Yes, may talented people refuse to move Ireland because of housing crisis
Even when loads money offered then average for the role they still refuse

awec

Villa05 wrote: »

One would imagine that high demand/income professionals would be offered this perk. Irelands income tax regime would not appeal to these people

The selection of who gets offered it and who doesn't will have nothing to do with an individual's income.

It will have everything to do with what they work on.

Ozark707

propertyseeker wrote: »

We see lot of properties added everyday in area we look at
Supply will eventually come on when government panic build to try win 2024 election

If the government want to win the 2024 election with extra supply to bring down prices the reality is that they will have to have started on them now or will need to start soon enough. If they want to move the dial in a shorter timeframe they probably need to be looking at other options like a vacancy tax in the hope this will bring extra supply to the market in the short to medium term.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

They won't be ill-informed. These multinational HR departments are second to none.

So what you are saying is that they might actually know what they are doing when they say that it's a subset of a subset of staff who may be allowed to move to a select few countries?

PropQueries

There seems to be a bit more information in the Irish Times in relation to Facebook's new policy:

"From later in the month, any employee will be able to move from the US to Canada or from Europe, the Middle East or Africa to anywhere in the UK,an option that was previously only open to technical or recruiting roles. By January 2022, Facebook employees will be allowed to permanently move between seven more countries in Europe, the Middle East or Africa. But workers who move to a lower cost region may see their pay reduced, and will be encouraged to go to the office at times to facilitate team building. Staff who must return to the office will also get more flexibility, with the Facebook’s guidance stating employees should be in the office at least half of the time."

As a poster said a few months ago, the real impact on the commercial property space would be felt in the small businesses services side e.g. small accountants etc. not requiring much more office space or giving it up altogether. Now, it appears the big boys are moving fast.

It will be interesting to see how many actually return to the Facebook etc. offices in Dublin in September. They appear to be moving full steam ahead with this new policy. AIB has already gone ahead with its 3 days at home hybrid policy. There must be countless others (big and small, domestic and MNC) who are currently implementing and seriously looking at implementing similar policies.

I would think come September when more people start returning to the offices, they're going to notice the city being a lot less busy than pre-covid and that's when people will start looking at the commercial and residential property markets in our cities in a different light.

Link to article in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/facebook-extends-remote-working-allows-employees-to-move-country-1.4589535

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

There seems to be a bit more information in the Irish Times in relation to Facebook's new policy:

"From later in the month, any employee will be able to move from the US to Canada or from Europe, the Middle East or Africa to anywhere in the UK,an option that was previously only open to technical or recruiting roles. By January 2022, Facebook employees will be allowed to permanently move between seven more countries in Europe, the Middle East or Africa. But workers who move to a lower cost region may see their pay reduced, and will be encouraged to go to the office at times to facilitate team building. Staff who must return to the office will also get more flexibility, with the Facebook’s guidance stating employees should be in the office at least half of the time."

As a poster said a few months ago, the real impact on the commercial property space would be felt in the small businesses services side e.g. small accountants etc. not requiring much more office space or giving it up altogether. Now, it appears the big boys are moving fast.

It will be interesting to see how many actually return to the Facebook etc. offices in Dublin in September. They appear to be moving full steam ahead with this new policy. AIB has already gone ahead with its 3 days at home hybrid policy. There must be countless others (big and small, domestic and MNC) who are currently implementing and seriously looking at implementing similar policies.

I would think come September when more people start returning to the offices, they're going to notice the city being a lot less busy than pre-covid and that's when people will start looking at the commercial and residential property markets in our cities in a different light.

Link to article in Irish Times here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/facebook-extends-remote-working-allows-employees-to-move-country-1.4589535

There are 2 others in the article you linked, but I can see why you were reluctant to quote them.

Ace2007

propertyseeker wrote: »

Yes, may talented people refuse to move Ireland because of housing crisis
Even when loads money offered then average for the role they still refuse

Maybe the HR departments need to offer something other than loads of money.
I've seen companies pay new employees rent for 6 months, and offer subsidized rent for the further 6 months, if they really want to get an employee.

It's laughable how one article about FB has the masses in here in hysterics about this idea that there is going to be a mass exodus of professionals.

"But workers who move to a lower cost region may see their pay reduced, and will be encouraged to go to the office at times to facilitate team building."

Amadan Dubh

It's also worth re-mentioning as it is constantly getting overlooked, that the government is introducing legislation which will enable employees to request WFH (separate to the Facebook/MNC policies of enabling EU based workers to work from their home EU country). Of course it will have stipulations but I think when you were an employee WFH the last year it will be almost impossible for the employer to overcome the legal right for employees to request WFH. Devil will be in the detail, exemptions need to be reviewed etc. Usual caveats.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

I would think come September when more people start returning to the offices, they're going to notice the city being a lot less busy than pre-covid and that's when people will start looking at the commercial and residential property markets in our cities in a different light.

pity it comes a month too late for your predictions