Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

pity it comes a month too late for your predictions

Not at all I said 50% - 75% within two years. The start of this fall would begin around July/ August. It's the 10th June. Still c. three months to go.


If I'm right and it's even quicker, even I will be slightly amazed.

Amadan Dubh

Ace2007 wrote: »

Maybe the HR departments need to offer something other than loads of money.
I've seen companies pay new employees rent for 6 months, and offer subsidized rent for the further 6 months, if they really want to get an employee.

It's laughable how one article about FB has the masses in here in hysterics about this idea that there is going to be a mass exodus of professionals.

"But workers who move to a lower cost region may see their pay reduced, and will be encouraged to go to the office at times to facilitate team building."

50% higher tax rate kicking in at something ridiculously low like 32k combined with absolutely extortionate rents, eating/drinking out being expensive, insurance costs, electricity/gas costs etc. I think you are naive to think a drop in salaries commensurate to living in another EU country is unacceptable to workers. I think you'll find the drop in salary that the companies offer is not so great as to make moving to another country unappealing - remember, it is not a punishment cost for wanting to move, the companies will still want to be competitive. That is notwithstanding the draw of home and friends/family which cannot be measured in money as easily.

SmokyMo

lol at people who think MNC will let you live somewhere in cheap EU country while collecting Irish salary.

Amadan Dubh

SmokyMo wrote: »

lol at people who think MNC will let you live somewhere in cheap EU country while collecting Irish salary.

How about working from anywhere in Ireland and collecting the Irish salary?

Ozark707

By January 2022, Facebook employees will be allowed to permanently move between seven more countries in Europe, the Middle East or Africa.

But workers who move to a lower cost region may see their pay reduced, and will be encouraged to go to the office at times to facilitate team building.

OK the 7 countries include ones in the ME and Africa. This probably narrows the options for many who were looking at a cheaper option. From my experience the ME is more expensive than here (and less desirable to live in but that is only my opinion ).

PropQueries

Ozark707 wrote: »

OK the 7 countries include ones in the ME and Africa. This probably narrows the options for many who were looking at a cheaper option. From my experience the ME is more expensive than here (and less desirable to live in but that is only my opinion ).

This went from being a non-option 18 months ago to being temporary to now 7 countries. This is moving incredibly fast. But, as I already said, if these companies are good at anything, it's scaling up incredibly quickly and incredibly efficiently.

Ace2007

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

50% higher tax rate kicking in at something ridiculously low like 32k combined with absolutely extortionate rents, eating/drinking out being expensive, insurance costs, electricity/gas costs etc. I think you are naive to think a drop in salaries commensurate to living in another EU country is unacceptable to workers. I think you'll find the drop in salary that the companies offer is not so great as to make moving to another country unappealing - remember, it is not a punishment cost for wanting to move, the companies will still want to be competitive. That is notwithstanding the draw of home and friends/family which cannot be measured in money as easily.

Well there is nothing stopping people in Dublin moving to Galway/Cork/Limerick and have lower rents, lower eating/drink out expenses, lower insurance, and potential still be on the same salary - but anytime that is mentioned in a thread here - it's a big no no, because they won't be beside friends and family, but now we are led to believe that these same folk will pack bags and move off to Spain because it's Sunny and lower taxes etc.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

This went from being a non-option 18 months ago to being temporary to now 7 countries. This is moving incredibly fast. But, as I already said, if these companies are good at anything, it's scaling up incredibly quickly and incredibly efficiently.

The limitation on this has nothing to do with scale. Though I am convinced you are fully aware of this.

Hubertj

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Are these tax teams primarily seated in London and U.S.?

I work for a US MNC. Tax Legal is based in IE, US and NL. Don’t know who external tax advisors are - PWC, Deloitte etc. Why do you ask?

The point I was making is that MNCs expansion decisions (or non decisions) in Ireland have been factored into decision making a long time ago. Some contributors here think it’s all news to them. I’d love to move to the US but my wife’s job prevents me taking up the position.

Hubspot introduced a good policy recently. I think you can work from anywhere 1 month per year. This is in addition to annual leave.

Amadan Dubh

Ace2007 wrote: »

Well there is nothing stopping people in Dublin moving to Galway/Cork/Limerick and have lower rents, lower eating/drink out expenses, lower insurance, and potential still be on the same salary - but anytime that is mentioned in a thread here - it's a big no no, because they won't be beside friends and family, but now we are led to believe that these same folk will pack bags and move off to Spain because it's Sunny and lower taxes etc.

That's not the reason. It is because long term WFH plans are not in place yet. However, look at the cost of building homes outside of Dublin versus in Dublin. Once these projects get going in the next 2-5 years, combined with the government WFH policy being implemented, you will see the froth coming out of Dublin and the movement happening.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

I work for a US MNC. Tax Legal is based in IE, US and NL. Don’t know who external tax advisors are - PWC, Deloitte etc. Why do you ask?

The point I was making is that MNCs expansion decisions (or non decisions) in Ireland have been factored into decision making a long time ago. Some contributors here think it’s all news to them. I’d love to move to the US but my wife’s job prevents me taking up the position.

Hubspot introduced a good policy recently. I think you can work from anywhere 1 month per year. This is in addition to annual leave.

This is what has changed:

"From later in the month, any employee will be able to move from the US to Canada or from Europe, the Middle East or Africa to anywhere in the UK,an option that was previously only open to technical or recruiting roles. By January 2022, Facebook employees will be allowed to permanently move between seven more countries in Europe, the Middle East or Africa."

I don't believe it would be true to say that this policy was being formulated over 2 years ago with a view to implementing this policy today. What has changed is the pandemic and many companies awareness that this can actually work in the real world.

It may have being a policy to implement this ten years out back in 2018, but the pandemic and also now the accelerating global tax reforms have pushed this timeline up by years.

While it's impact on the commercial and residential property markets probably won't be seen for another couple of months, I believe it will be seen in a very short time-frame.

Ozark707

Hubertj wrote: »

Hubspot introduced a good policy recently. I think you can work from anywhere 1 month per year. This is in addition to annual leave.

3 months

Villa05

awec wrote:

The selection of who gets offered it and who doesn't will have nothing to do with an individual's income.

Perks in general are given to staff that are hard to source. Being high demand low supply they tend to earn more

The rule is not exclusive to property

Ace2007 wrote:

Maybe the HR departments need to offer something other than loads of money. I've seen companies pay new employees rent for 6 months, and offer subsidized rent for the further 6 months, if they really want to get an employee.

An admission perhaps that rent prices are a problem in our country and we need to think outside the box to solve it

Amadan Dubh

Hubertj wrote: »

I work for a US MNC. Tax Legal is based in IE, US and NL. Don’t know who external tax advisors are - PWC, Deloitte etc. Why do you ask?

The point I was making is that MNCs expansion decisions (or non decisions) in Ireland have been factored into decision making a long time ago. Some contributors here think it’s all news to them. I’d love to move to the US but my wife’s job prevents me taking up the position.

Hubspot introduced a good policy recently. I think you can work from anywhere 1 month per year. This is in addition to annual leave.

I was just curious because with my fiancé's company the HR is London based and in my old job (big finance corporation) a lot of the work was controlled in London too. With Brexit now done, future EU laws will be discussed, drafted, lobbied etc without any UK involvement so they will be blind to any sort of nuance or behind the scenes views of any of them, meaning it will be very difficult for them to still run London operations. In particular, with the EU corporate tax reforms, separate from the G7/OECD reforms, London based HR/Tax teams won't have any expertise on this.

Ace2007

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

That's not the reason. It is because long term WFH plans are not in place yet. However, look at the cost of building homes outside of Dublin versus in Dublin. Once these projects get going in the next 2-5 years, combined with the government WFH policy being implemented, you will see the froth coming out of Dublin and the movement happening.

But you can just move to these counties and work in local offices - or move jobs - you don't have to stay with your current job.

The reason why people don't move is cause they don't want to cause friends/family are in Dublin - yet again do you think they are going to decide now to forget about these and move abroad?

enricoh

SmokyMo wrote: »

lol at people who think MNC will let you live somewhere in cheap EU country while collecting Irish salary.

One of my mates isn't happy about it at all, she started seeing a fella in the office and he went back home to Spain when covid hit.
She said it was a bit obvious on the online meetings, him with the t shirt on in the middle of February!
She's thinking of ratting him out to get him back over!

awec

Villa05 wrote: »

Perks in general are given to staff that are hard to source. Being high demand low supply they tend to earn more

The rule is not exclusive to property




An admission perhaps that rent prices are a problem in our country and we need to think outside the box to solve it

Facebook and co don't go around offering individualised perks to people they hire. Maybe at the executive level etc where staff are headhunted, but for the ordinary joe soap they have their defined perks and that's what you are getting. They will have some leeway on salary, but again within very defined boundaries. They may temporarily give you some accommodation if you are relocating etc.

The people offered the remote outside of Ireland perk will be those who can work outside the state without costing Facebook any money (read: tax).

Ace2007

Villa05 wrote: »

Perks in general are given to staff that are hard to source. Being high demand low supply they tend to earn more

The rule is not exclusive to property




An admission perhaps that rent prices are a problem in our country and we need to think outside the box to solve it

Or that you give a new individual the chance to find their feet in the city and choose where they want to rent.

Amadan Dubh

Ace2007 wrote: »

But you can just move to these counties and work in local offices - or move jobs - you don't have to stay with your current job.

The reason why people don't move is cause they don't want to cause friends/family are in Dublin - yet again do you think they are going to decide now to forget about these and move abroad?

I work with four people on my team, the manager and three of us lowly employees. Two of us are looking for a WFH policy that would enable us to settle away from Dublin, within Ireland. Our demographics are early 30s. Obviously that would be 50% on our small team but I would think that, if possible, you would get even 10/20% of renters in Dublin looking to move out of Dublin if you actually gave them a choice right now. This would be significant to the rental market. However, I fully anticipate over time that the regional cities / towns become more attractive because people have moved from Dublin, meaning the reasons it hasn't already happened (ie friends and family) are actually entirely irrelevant over time as people wouldn't need to have moved to Dublin int he first place.

Marius34

propertyseeker wrote: »

We see lot of properties added everyday in area we look at
Supply will eventually come on when government panic build to try win 2024 election

As well, as increase in demands with opening.

Regarding 2024, its to little we know to speculate. Politics is just politics, the result impact to property price may be very different from what we may expect.

Amadan Dubh

Ace2007 wrote: »

But you can just move to these counties and work in local offices - or move jobs - you don't have to stay with your current job.

The reason why people don't move is cause they don't want to cause friends/family are in Dublin - yet again do you think they are going to decide now to forget about these and move abroad?

There is a correlation (likely causation too) between the growth of the rental market (and by extension the purchase market) and net immigration the last few years. Where do you think the MNCs have predominantly been hiring; it isn't in the pool of "highly educated" (IDA shpiel) workforce here. A lot of the jobs created have been filled from workers abroad. These are the people I am talking about moving home to their friends and family in other EU countries.

If there is a correlation between jobs created, immigration and the rental market the last few years, then the reversal or at least a slower increase in new jobs being created in MNCs in the short to medium term should correlate with a decline in rents and therefore a decline in house prices considering the rental market's bubble pushing up house prices. This of course all ignores the possibility of an economic decline, I'm still assuming economic growth leading to jobs being created!

Hubertj

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

There is a correlation (likely causation too) between the growth of the rental market (and by extension the purchase market) and net immigration the last few years. Where do you think the MNCs have predominantly been hiring; it isn't in the pool of "highly educated" (IDA shpiel) workforce here. A lot of the jobs created have been filled from workers abroad. These are the people I am talking about moving home to their friends and family in other EU countries.

If there is a correlation between jobs created, immigration and the rental market the last few years, then the reversal or at least a slower increase in new jobs being created in MNCs in the short to medium term should correlate with a decline in rents and therefore a decline in house prices considering the rental market's bubble pushing up house prices. This of course all ignores the possibility of an economic decline, I'm still assuming economic growth leading to jobs being created!

You also have to factor in people returning to Ireland from other countries for some of the same reasons. Then look at Brexit and the number of Irish people moving back from the UK. I know a couple of people who already returned and 3 more families will be back in Ireland by the end of 2022.

Either way, any downward pressure on rents/house prices which is not manufactured by more government meddling is to be welcomed.

jill_valentine

Ace2007 wrote: »

Well there is nothing stopping people in Dublin moving to Galway/Cork/Limerick and have lower rents, lower eating/drink out expenses, lower insurance, and potential still be on the same salary - but anytime that is mentioned in a thread here - it's a big no no, because they won't be beside friends and family, but now we are led to believe that these same folk will pack bags and move off to Spain because it's Sunny and lower taxes etc.

The overwhelming thing keeping me, and I daresay many others in Dublin who'd otherwise move, is the reliability of available work, and I would say that's by far the main point I've seen raised here as the issue with moving out of Dublin, I know I've said as much here anyway. Secondary consideration is infrastructural stuff that's less important if work from home is a goer anyway.

I haven't really seen the friends and family thing argued much, and in my experience the rent issue means me and my friends couldn't really settle near each other anyway, I can't afford an expectation of being within two hours of my friends or family so that's not something I'd consider or miss.

awec

jill_valentine wrote: »

The overwhelming thing keeping me, and I daresay many others in Dublin who'd otherwise move, is the reliability of available work, and I would say that's by far the main point I've seen raised here as the issue with moving out of Dublin, I know I've said as much here anyway. Secondary consideration is infrastructural stuff that's less important if work from home is a goer anyway.

I haven't really seen the friends and family thing argued much, and in my experience the rent issue means me and my friends couldn't really settle near each other anyway, I can't afford an expectation of being within two hours of my friends or family so that's not something I'd consider or miss.

As in what happens if you lose or need to leave your current job?

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

Either way, any downward pressure on rents/house prices which is not manufactured by more government meddling is to be welcomed.

Have you got examples of government meddling that resulted in downward pressure on rents/ house prices?

JimmyVik

awec wrote: »

This is where you are making a leap. You are assuming that if they can do it for a few staff, they can easily do it for all.

Facebook are building a brand new HQ in Ballsbridge. Do you think they're building this for their staff who live in Poland? Google have submitted plans last week to build more office space. Do you think they're doing this for their staff who live in Spain? Apple secured more office space in Cork a few months ago. Is this for their staff who live in the UK? TikTok took out a ten year lease on a very large office recently, is this for their staff who will live in France?

As with everything, things are far more nuanced than some want to believe.

They are actually. They will be entitled to come work in Ireland if they want.
As will staff from any other EU country

fliball123

awec wrote: »

It's not a major shift, that's the point. It's in the news because it's interesting.

Of all of Facebook's staff, a minority will be allowed to be remote. Of that minority, and even smaller minority will be allowed to work from outside of Ireland. This is interesting, but it's not seismic, it's not "devastating", it's not going to bring us all to our knees.

I mean to read this thread this morning you'd think Facebook had announced they were leaving Ireland!

I think the point will be within FB when other staff are not allowed do this, they will quite rightly point the finger and say why is mr/miss x, y and z allowed to do it. It wont be long till its company wide. Once other MNCs see this as a MAJOR work incentive for the cream of the crop when recruiting new talent the others will have the choice to stand still or to compete.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/imposing-six-bed-victorian-on-ailesbury-road-for-4-85m-1.4586639?mode=amp

Sold for €2.85m in 2015, now asking €4.85m which is being described, if attainable, as "a nice return".

https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/details/saint_peters_91_ailesbury_road_donnybrook_dublin_4_co_dublin_ireland-144035/

zom

Amadan Dubh wrote: »

Even with SF in government?

If it only was that easy but I afraid people from SF love money not much less than people from FF / FG.

Ace2007

JimmyVik wrote: »

They are actually. They will be entitled to come work in Ireland if they want.
As will staff from any other EU country

So all these staff will want to come work in Ireland, despite many on here saying that people will want to leave Ireland because of tax, costs etc.