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World Politics Digest thread

  • 03-06-2021 9:47am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,477 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    The idea behind this thread is that it is for international stories that probably wouldn't sustain their own threads.

    Israel
    It looks like the Israeli Opposition parties have finally had enough of Benjamin Netanyahu and EIGHT of them are coming together to form a coalition to oust him. The new coalition contains both right-wing nationalists, left wing moderates and an Arab party. Even with 8 parties involved it still only manages to have 62 seats, which is enough for a slender majority in the 120 seat Knesset.

    This reminds me of 1948 here when 5 parties came together to oust De Velera, who had been in power for 16 years at that point. Netanyahu has been in power for 13 years straight now and has used the immunity that comes with his office to avoid prosecution on corruption charges.

    The big question is how long can a government with a comically large number of parties, a wafer-thin majority and no common policy platforms last before collapsing?


«13456

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,538 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    I'm assuming the intent is to hold on long enough to get Netanyahu prosecuted and then call an election where he won't be in the running. There is zero chance of it holding together for any time otherwise.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,477 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    L1011 wrote: »
    I'm assuming the intent is to hold on long enough to get Netanyahu prosecuted and then call an election where he won't be in the running. There is zero chance of it holding together for any time otherwise.

    That could very well be true. I saw someone describe it as a coalition that will be governed by the rule of Mutually Assured Destruction.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,477 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    The second tweet below explains the answer to the riddle of how to combine such disparate parties, using American politicians as an analogy.

    https://twitter.com/Yair_Rosenberg/status/1400529798141726724

    The whole thread is worth a read as it explains the mechanics of it all.


  • Posts: 13,688 ✭✭✭✭ Maia Prickly Traitor


    Now that's a rainbow coalition.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    It's a boggling coalition to read the particulars of each constituent part, and hard to see how it won't just all fly off the edges at the first sign of acrimony.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,477 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Peru
    There's a Presidential election runoff in Peru today and in typical Latin American style it's between two candidates that are very very different to each other.

    The candidate of the right, is the daughter of disgraced ex-President Alberto Fujimori (He was President during the 90s but subsequently went to prison for embezzlement and bribery charges). His daughter, Keiko ran and finished second in the last two presidential elections so is going for third time lucky.

    Her opponent, Pedro Castillo, came out of nowhere to win the first round back in April. He's a teacher and union leader running on a socialist platform.

    It seems to be a battle of left vs right; rural vs urban; outsider vs establishment figure.

    Polls had Castillo comfortably ahead but that lead rapidly diminished in the past few weeks and now it is reckoned to be a dead heat.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,477 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    https://twitter.com/ElElectoral/status/1401939406269911042

    It's as ridiculously close as it was expected to be with 94% of the votes counted.

    Fujimori lost the last Presidential election by 50.1% - 49.9% so it could be another heartbreaker for her.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,477 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Castillo appears to have a lead that is unlikely to be beaten but Fujimori is claiming fraud.
    A preliminary count is likely to end on Wednesday, although about 300,000 votes have been contested and will need to be reviewed by an electoral jury, which will take days to resolve.

    It is unclear whether those contested votes will be enough to swing the election in favor of Fujimori, especially after Castillo modestly broadened his lead during the day from as low as 70,000 votes.

    link


    If Castillo pulls it off it'll be another victory for left-wing candidates in south america in recent years.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,477 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    New York City

    New York has it's Mayoral election later this year. The Democratic primary, which many people see as the de-facto general election, will be held in 9 days time (Tuesday, 15th June). Former presidential candidate, Andrew Yang is the biggest name in the field and he was the favourite a few months ago but his campaign has faltered recently and now the favourite is former state senator and current President of Brooklyn borough, Eric Adams. There are 6 other major candidates in the race.

    The really interesting thing about this contest though is that it will be the first since New York city has switched to rank-choiced voting. In effect, this will play out like an Irish Presidential election (or by-election) with the winning candidate needing to get to 50% of the votes. Unlike an irish ballot voters will only be allowed to rank up to 5 places (presumably to make it easier for a machine to count the votes afterwards).

    Rank-choiced voting is starting to appear slowly in the USA. The state of Maine has been using it for the last few years and Alaska will do so in future elections. New York city dwarves those though and is especially important since so much of the American media and business elite live there.

    If this election runs ok and people see how much more sense it makes than first past the post then hopefully it can gather momentum and become the norm. This would be great since it tends to reward more moderate candidates rather than candidates who only play to one extreme. I truly believe that one of the main causes of the polarisation seen in the USA and UK today is their use of FPTP.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 54,621 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Great day to see the back of Netanyahu


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,477 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Still no official result in Peru


    https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1405341960303415298


    I can't see any scenario where Fujimori wins this that wouldn't lead to chaos.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,333 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,477 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Nody wrote: »

    Very unusual to have Alito and Thomas on different sides of a ruling. Usually they are lockstep with the Republican position.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,477 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1406286034288140306

    Regardless of what you may think of him Silver would be widely regarded in America as an elections expert especially on the numerical side of things. As such, it's a good indicator of how ignorant American's are, in general, about this type of voting and the strategies that it entails, that he would say something like this. To be fair he was massively called out in the replies over it.


  • Posts: 3,689 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Apple Daily, an Hong Kong pro democracy news publication is to close for good.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57578926

    :-C

    Another nail in the coffin of autonomy for Hong Kong, one of the last.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,477 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Preliminary results of the first count are in in New York and as a result of them Andrew Yang has conceded defeat (he's a distant 4th).

    They won't start counting the subsequent rounds until after all of the postal ballots have come in, which might not be until July but it's looking good for Eric Adams.

    Yang & Garcia had a voting pact so it will be interesting to see if most of his votes transfer to her and propel her over Wiley into second place.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,538 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    The Philippines are making COVID vaccination compulsory, something likely to fracture the inter-country love for Duterte by right-wingers in other countries. However, its not like they actually have the vaccines to give currently

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-filipino-president-rodrigo-duterte-threatens-to-jail-people-if-they-dont-get-vaccinated-12339331


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 461 ✭✭HerrKapitan


    Still no official result in Peru


    https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1405341960303415298


    I can't see any scenario where Fujimori wins this that wouldn't lead to chaos.


    Sounds like there won't be a result declared, due to purposeful delay tactics. A supreme Court judge is refusing to participate. Without him they don't have legal numbers to progress and declare a winner.

    There is a possibility the Congress will take charge until the matter is resolved, beyond the deadline to declare a president, resulting in a new election.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,477 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Sounds like there won't be a result declared, due to purposeful delay tactics. A supreme Court judge is refusing to participate. Without him they don't have legal numbers to progress and declare a winner.

    There is a possibility the Congress will take charge until the matter is resolved, beyond the deadline to declare a president, resulting in a new election.

    Wow. I wonder was that judge appointed by Fujimora's father?

    Surely the people will take the streets if that deadline passes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Well the New York mayor democratic primary has turned into a mess. They pulled back results due to errors. Disaster. And the candidate that AOC backed in maya wiley was second after the first count but well back which won’t look well for AOCs pull in the Democratic Party.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,477 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    Well the New York mayor democratic primary has turned into a mess. They pulled back results due to errors. Disaster. And the candidate that AOC backed in maya wiley was second after the first count but well back which won’t look well for AOCs pull in the Democratic Party.

    They've made an absolute dog's dinner of it. Apparently the New York Board of Elections has been grossly incompetent for decades but it's almost impossible to change them for political reasons. The worst part is that Donald trump is now releasing statements saying that the election is being rigged, just like his election was rigged.

    For the life of me I don't understand why they didn't just wait for all of the ballots to arrive and then count the votes. Instead they have been releasing provisional results, confusing everyone and then to top it all off they included over 100,000 test ballots in the results set.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,477 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    If this election runs ok and people see how much more sense it makes than first past the post then hopefully it can gather momentum and become the norm. This would be great since it tends to reward more moderate candidates rather than candidates who only play to one extreme. I truly believe that one of the main causes of the polarisation seen in the USA and UK today is their use of FPTP.

    sigh


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    There's a long way to go but things not looking so hot for Senor Bolsonaro right now. Maybe Lula can even increase his lead!

    https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1412442597277249539?s=20


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 54,621 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    There's a long way to go but things not looking so hot for Senor Bolsonaro right now. Maybe Lula can even increase his lead!

    https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1412442597277249539?s=20

    Yes great to see

    Hopefully they impeach him, nasty piece of work too


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Headshot wrote: »
    Yes great to see

    Hopefully they impeach him, nasty piece of work too

    Word. I'm dreaming of both him and trump being behind bars by the end of the year and, while I'm dreaming, throw Modi in for the trifecta. But would settle for trump trial and bolsonaro impeachment, two out of three wouldn't be at all bad.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    German and Canadian elections are taking place today and the German one is notable because Angela Merkel won’t be chancellor anymore which is a big story.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Germany is next week, isn't it, September 26. May well be first election where climate is at the forefront of the campaign which is somewhat encouraging. Though the green candidate, initially touted as a strong candidate to succeed Merkel as chancellor, seems to be having a bit of a mare.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy




  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Without segueing the conversation into Yet Another Brexit Chat, it'll be interesting to see how Merkel's disappearance from world politics will be reported in the non-German press, especially in Britain. I feel like some will lean into a narrative of cracks within the EU forming, of division within German politics (as opposed to the reality of another coalition being formed, as is quite normal)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,477 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    The Canadian election isn't until tomorrow. If the polls are accurate then it's going to be tight.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Yes, quite likely you'll get a bit of stirring up along those lines in some quarters. But can't see there could possibly be any substance behind it as all the main parties, excepting AfD, are quite firmly pro EU and AfD, while maintaining a steady 10-11%, don't look like gaining any ground. Even should Scholz, the centre left SPD candidate, take over, he doesn't come across all that fundamentally different from Merkel to me. It all suggests continuity either way, just with a 3 party rainbow coalition instead of 2. Adam Boulton signed off his show this morning saying he'd be presenting from Berlin next Monday, so they'll definitely be giving it some welly anyway!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,477 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Presented without comment: Putin's United Russia is on track to be the winner of the Russian parliamentary election:


    With almost all of the votes counted, the United Russia party had won nearly 50% of the vote, marking a slight drop in support from the previous election.

    Mr Putin's biggest critics were barred from running, and there were reports of ballot stuffing and forced voting.

    Russia's electoral commission rejected claims of widespread irregularities.

    With more than 99% of votes counted, United Russia's closest rival, the Communist Party, had about 19% of the vote, according to the election commission.

    United Russia's victory means it will have more than two-thirds of the 450 seats in the country's parliament, officials say.


    link



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Anyone who wants to watch the election coverage of the Canadian election results can so from midnight Irish time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,654 ✭✭✭✭For Forks Sake




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,347 ✭✭✭OneColdHand


    Canadian election being called as a Liberal minority. Same as before, basically. Looking like very little change.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,258 ✭✭✭HalloweenJack



    I freely admit to not agreeing with Katya Adler on a lot of things so I can't give a truly unbiased opinion on the piece but there were some conclusions that felt simplistic and playing to the crowd.

    Abyway, I'll put it out there for others to decide.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Are there any primers out there for the basics in Canadian politics? Their southern neighbors dominate debates so much I couldn't name a party or politician bar Trudeau (and eveb then couldn't speak to his Politics).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Well the Canadian follow the UK in their system by having a House of Commons and an upper house. From watching the coverage of it, the liberal party and conservatives in Canada seem to follow labour and the conservative in that they’ve shared the top job in the history of Canada and have the same colours. The NDP(New Democratic Party) would probably be the Lib Dems, and their the French Canadian party Bloc Québécois which would be like the SNP, and the greens are the greens. That’s a very very general overview and there’s obvious nuances.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,347 ✭✭✭OneColdHand


    That's it in a nutshell. I'm no expert on Canadian political history, but I live here now, so take a general interest.

    There's also PPC (People Party of Canada) who are comparable to UKIP. They won a huge number of votes, but got no seats. It seems these votes have cost the conservatives a number of seats.

    This episode of this podcast gives a good overview of the outcomes of this election and where each party will go form now:




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    I meant to say it for a country that is has the reputation of being efficient in many ways, it’s doesn’t stretch to their election set up. It’s a very un German like set up and given that’s it’s an unclear picture for the upcoming election, I don’t think the bizarre election set up will help.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    I'd be a bit unclear as to what is specifically inefficient about it tbh? Is it that no one party is likely to achieve a majority? No single party has done so in German post war history, so there's nothing new there, coalitions are the lifeblood of their political representative system. Not unusual to have 3 or even 4 parties making up the government, plus with their federal system, local representation is accorded considerable weight. Scotland and I think New Zealand use a similar system now, I'm sure others too.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 92,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Kim Yo-jong says North Korea open to ending Korean war if conditions met

    She's the sister and heir apparent and the critical timeline may be the presidential election down south in March.

    "What needs to be dropped is the double-dealing attitudes, illogical prejudice, bad habits and hostile stand of justifying their own acts while faulting our just exercise of the right to self-defence," she said in a statement.

    "Only when such a precondition is met, would it be possible to sit face to face and declare the significant termination of war."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,477 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    The way that the total number of seats in Parliament is not fixed and is actually dependent on the election results is a bit messed up. It's a situation like the House of Lords where it seems to keep on increasing in size. I know they have a large population but they currently have 709 seats in the Bundestag and that will apparently increase due to the larger number of parties who are meeting the 5% threshold. It's already after surpassing the European Parliament (705 seats). The Irish Times Politics podcast were discussing it the other day. The correspondent basically said that all of the parties know it's unsustainable but they cannot agree on a solution to remedy it.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    That's madness. Where are parties disagreeing on attempts to address the growth of representatives? The actual number or something more granular? Presumably the smaller parties are just terrified of losing swathes of seats, cos no jobs industry ever voted against their interests. What about the big three though?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Fair point, that does seem to be an obvious glitch alright. It also would seem eminently solvable by reducing the number of electoral districts or some other alternative means of capping the numbers. That would require multi party consensus, though, and we know how tricky that can be when competing interests are at play! I'm sure i read somewhere that broad agreement was reached on dealing with it for subsequent elections, but not 100% on the details tbh.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    This German election is looking like it will be very close. First exit polls at 6pm our time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Bad start to polling day for the gaffe prone Laschet. Not being able to cast your vote properly not exactly the choice look for a wannabe leader of the EUs foremost economy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,338 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    I saw it earlier. That should be a layup for a politician doing the obligatory photo op on Election Day.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,901 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...cause folding your ballot paper the wrong way is an astonishing failure in life, and clearly shows the lack of leadership skills in a person! serious?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Yeah, who said any of that? The fact that on polling day, with millions left to vote and record numbers of undecideds, there's a flash of headlines about one of the lead candidates mucking up his vote, is not exactly the best look. That is all.



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