World Politics Digest thread

pixelburp

Winnie the Pooh enthusiast Xi Jumping, made the most vocal noises towards swallowing Taiwan yet. Outside of Israel this must be the most difficult, most complex geopolitical issue yet - though at this juncture any notion Taiwan hasn't established itself as a sovreign nation seems ludicrous to rationalise. And it's not like the Taiwanese have any appetite or longing for Beijing rule.

On a somewhat related tangent, I also see Elon Musk decided to weigh in on the question, having already rationalised peace in Ukraine could be achieved by... simply giving Russia what it wants. This time, who'd have thought it, he also reckoned Taiwan simply allow Chinese rule ala Hong Kong. This double whammy of deference to bullies really tipped.me over the edge in terms of impatience for this overexposed idiot.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/16/xi-jinping-speech-opens-china-communist-party-congress

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119750607#Comment_119750607

And only days later Tesla cars got a tax discount in China; clearly no connection to Musk's proposal or anything of course.

All eyes on Brazil on Sunday!

Headshot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119810158#Comment_119810158

God I hope he wins.

It's shocking it even went to a run off in the first place

pixelburp

I saw headlines of worry Bolsonaro mightn't recognise a losing result?.(sound familiar). How likely is that they, and anyone know enough about Brazilian mechanisms that if that was even possible?

Brussels Sprout

At this stage, I'd be more shocked if Bolsnaro did accept the result. He has been priming his supporters and the media for a long time that that is exactly what he will do.

The really critical thing is what will the military do after he loses and cries foul?

Reports of 'issues' with mandatory free public transport for voters.

PopePalpatine

There's also been reports of cops blocking highways:

https://twitter.com/tomphillipsin/status/1586789295578390528?s=20&t=mXWyjVf_sghcBefj44DsFA

LUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUULA!

Cody montana

He will refuse to go.

Headshot

Thank **** he's gone

How the **** he got 49.1% of the vote after his fucked up response to Covid is beyond me

pixelburp

49.1? Yikes.

Maybe humanity doesn't deserve to survive itself if someone aggressively, pridefully trying to destroy the climate gets that much of a vote.

Presumably Bolsonaro will refuse to leave and the games begin.

Bolsonaro has nowhere to go but out.

All the world leaders have congratulated Lula on his victory.

China, Russia, India and South Africa have all acknowledged Lula's win and offered their congratulations. There's no chance BRICS members allow Bolsonaro continue on, nevermind the EU and US.

Brussels Sprout

Yeah Boden was extremely quick to send out the official message last night. No doubt that was planned well in advance. I believe they are going to send Tony Blinken out there on an official visit soon enough as well. Basically a subliminal message to Bolsonaro and the military to not even try it.

Speaking of Bolsonaro, I'm surprised he didn't pull a Trump and just declare victory himself last night.

breezy1985

Bolsonaro still sulking as things stand. He is taking being the Brazilian Trump very seriously.

Bolsonaro won't be challenging the result according to a spokesperson.

Nody

And further proof that Trump style voters can be just as stupid in other countries as well...

Supporters of Brazil's former president Jair Bolsonaro broke through a blockade set up by security forces and invaded ministries and the Congress building in Brazil on Sunday.

Video footage obtained by Reuters from Bolsonaro-related groups and video from local broadcasters show protesters storming the presidential palace in the capital Brasília.

More information here.

For Forks Sake

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120083226#Comment_120083226

Remarkably, they seem to be even stupider than your average red hat wearer.

https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1612183908216438784

But, an absolutly glorious piece of instant karma occurred

https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1612215910462267394

Brussels Sprout

Nigeria

Results have started to be announced from the weekend's Presidential election. They are announcing them on a state by state basis. Only 4 of the 36 states have been announced so far but provisional results have also been released. The main one of interest so far is that the outsider, Peter Obo, appears to have won Lagos State, the largest state. He hasn't won any of the 4 officially announced states so far though.

The BBC have a live blog following it.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120293804#Comment_120293804

For those like myself who are both ignorant of Nigerian politics, and Google averse, how does the election rank in terms of importance? Is it a bunch of ideologues pitched against each other ala Brazil or US - or something more sober?

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120293969#Comment_120293969

In terms of importance it's very important. It's the biggest job in the most populous country & largest GDP in Africa. Nigeria is a Federation so in a sense it's like an American Presidential election.

I honestly don't know a whole pile about the candidates apart from what I've read in brief articles in the past week or two. Even though there are something like 16 candidates it's a 3-horse race:

• Bola Tinubu (70): Buhari, the current President is term-limited and so his party has nominated Tinubu. He's the former governor of Lagos
• Atiku Abubakar (76): Former Vice President. This is his 6th time running for the top job. Has 4 wives + 2 ex-wives and 28 children - fair play to him
• Peter Obi (61): He's the outsider. Seems to have a lot of support from the youth in Nigeria (which, unlike Western countries comprises a huge part of the population). Also a former governor

By all accounts Obi is seen as less obviously corrupt than the other two. Unusually for Nigerian politics he isn't leaning into ethnic or tribal status for gathering votes (he's Christian, the other two front-runners are Muslims) - he's trying to be a broad-based candidate.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120294344#Comment_120294344

Don't know about his policy's but it's safe to say Atiku is the Boris Johnson of Nigeria 🤣

Brussels Sprout

Interesting from the BBC page:

I've never heard of anything like that 25% rule before. I wonder what would happen if a candidate fell foul of it.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120294528#Comment_120294528

It's not 25% though it's 25% of 25 out of 36. God knows what that amounts to but if you think of Ireland it would be very rare I assume that a winner would not get 25% in that many constituencies.

The Abuja thing is interesting though.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120295037#Comment_120295037

Yeah I understand that aspect of the rule, I just have never seen its like before. I can imagine why it is there though. Ireland is a relatively homogenous country. Nigera, not so much.

For example, if someone like Modi came along and tried to demagogue his way to victory by pitching an explicitly anti-Christian message at the Muslim majority he would fall foul of this rule in the southern Nigerian states (looks like there are ~16 states where Christians make up 80%+):

Given how explicit that religious divide is, it's not a bad rule I guess.

Abuja's one of those planned capitals within it's own federal district (like D.C., Canberra & Brasilia) so I guess they treat it like one of the states for the implementation of the 25% rule.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120295143#Comment_120295143

Oh right I thought it meant 25% of 26 states + Abuja not including.

Brussels Sprout

Looks like the ruing Party's man has won it. The opposition aren't having it though

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64760226

Headshot

France is a bit of an uproar at the moment.

I know whey there's protests but i'd like to get a better understanding why Macron pushed a head with the change? Is it something that's critical to the future French economy?

Brussels Sprout

In a word, yes. Like most developed countries French people are living longer. French life expectancy is now 82 years. A retirement age of 62 is an outlier amongst advanced economies. That puts a tremendous burden on the French economy as less working people are generating the tax to pay for everyone else as the retired population grows.

The politicians know what needs to be done, for the greater good of the country, but they also know that this would be the reaction from large sections of people. Macron cannot run for reelection and he prides himself as a centrist. He likely knows that if he doesn't do this know it won't be done for many years. The populist left and right certainly wouldn't be taking this step.

It's not a great look for democracy though that he had to resort to bypassing the lower house of parliament.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120381202#Comment_120381202

It is one thing that Sarkozy had made some good strides in and it was utterly ruined by Hollande rolling back.

I have a lot of time of unions in France and their bargaining power. But they are wrong on this one. Everyone under the age of 50 protesting is being played for a fool - all they will get out of this is a delay to much needed reforms and some current 60 year olds get to retire a bit earlier. The idea that the retirement age will stay at 62 is a fantasy.