World Politics Digest thread

Brussels Sprout · 03-06-2021 9:47am #1

The idea behind this thread is that it is for international stories that probably wouldn't sustain their own threads.

Israel
It looks like the Israeli Opposition parties have finally had enough of Benjamin Netanyahu and EIGHT of them are coming together to form a coalition to oust him. The new coalition contains both right-wing nationalists, left wing moderates and an Arab party. Even with 8 parties involved it still only manages to have 62 seats, which is enough for a slender majority in the 120 seat Knesset.

This reminds me of 1948 here when 5 parties came together to oust De Velera, who had been in power for 16 years at that point. Netanyahu has been in power for 13 years straight now and has used the immunity that comes with his office to avoid prosecution on corruption charges.

The big question is how long can a government with a comically large number of parties, a wafer-thin majority and no common policy platforms last before collapsing?

L1011 · 03-06-2021 9:48am

I'm assuming the intent is to hold on long enough to get Netanyahu prosecuted and then call an election where he won't be in the running. There is zero chance of it holding together for any time otherwise.

Brussels Sprout · 03-06-2021 10:22am

L1011 wrote: »

I'm assuming the intent is to hold on long enough to get Netanyahu prosecuted and then call an election where he won't be in the running. There is zero chance of it holding together for any time otherwise.

That could very well be true. I saw someone describe it as a coalition that will be governed by the rule of Mutually Assured Destruction.

Brussels Sprout · 03-06-2021 9:30pm

The second tweet below explains the answer to the riddle of how to combine such disparate parties, using American politicians as an analogy.

https://twitter.com/Yair_Rosenberg/status/1400529798141726724

The whole thread is worth a read as it explains the mechanics of it all.

Hello 2D Person Below · 03-06-2021 9:36pm

Now that's a rainbow coalition.

pixelburp · 04-06-2021 1:35pm

It's a boggling coalition to read the particulars of each constituent part, and hard to see how it won't just all fly off the edges at the first sign of acrimony.

Brussels Sprout · 06-06-2021 1:31pm

Peru
There's a Presidential election runoff in Peru today and in typical Latin American style it's between two candidates that are very very different to each other.

The candidate of the right, is the daughter of disgraced ex-President Alberto Fujimori (He was President during the 90s but subsequently went to prison for embezzlement and bribery charges). His daughter, Keiko ran and finished second in the last two presidential elections so is going for third time lucky.

Her opponent, Pedro Castillo, came out of nowhere to win the first round back in April. He's a teacher and union leader running on a socialist platform.

It seems to be a battle of left vs right; rural vs urban; outsider vs establishment figure.

Polls had Castillo comfortably ahead but that lead rapidly diminished in the past few weeks and now it is reckoned to be a dead heat.

Brussels Sprout · 07-06-2021 5:40pm

https://twitter.com/ElElectoral/status/1401939406269911042

It's as ridiculously close as it was expected to be with 94% of the votes counted.

Fujimori lost the last Presidential election by 50.1% - 49.9% so it could be another heartbreaker for her.

Brussels Sprout · 09-06-2021 2:27pm

Castillo appears to have a lead that is unlikely to be beaten but Fujimori is claiming fraud.

A preliminary count is likely to end on Wednesday, although about 300,000 votes have been contested and will need to be reviewed by an electoral jury, which will take days to resolve.

It is unclear whether those contested votes will be enough to swing the election in favor of Fujimori, especially after Castillo modestly broadened his lead during the day from as low as 70,000 votes.

link

If Castillo pulls it off it'll be another victory for left-wing candidates in south america in recent years.

Brussels Sprout · 13-06-2021 4:24pm

New York City

New York has it's Mayoral election later this year. The Democratic primary, which many people see as the de-facto general election, will be held in 9 days time (Tuesday, 15th June). Former presidential candidate, Andrew Yang is the biggest name in the field and he was the favourite a few months ago but his campaign has faltered recently and now the favourite is former state senator and current President of Brooklyn borough, Eric Adams. There are 6 other major candidates in the race.

The really interesting thing about this contest though is that it will be the first since New York city has switched to rank-choiced voting. In effect, this will play out like an Irish Presidential election (or by-election) with the winning candidate needing to get to 50% of the votes. Unlike an irish ballot voters will only be allowed to rank up to 5 places (presumably to make it easier for a machine to count the votes afterwards).

Rank-choiced voting is starting to appear slowly in the USA. The state of Maine has been using it for the last few years and Alaska will do so in future elections. New York city dwarves those though and is especially important since so much of the American media and business elite live there.

If this election runs ok and people see how much more sense it makes than first past the post then hopefully it can gather momentum and become the norm. This would be great since it tends to reward more moderate candidates rather than candidates who only play to one extreme. I truly believe that one of the main causes of the polarisation seen in the USA and UK today is their use of FPTP.

Headshot · 13-06-2021 7:09pm

Great day to see the back of Netanyahu

Brussels Sprout · 17-06-2021 4:57pm

Still no official result in Peru

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1405341960303415298

I can't see any scenario where Fujimori wins this that wouldn't lead to chaos.

Nody · 17-06-2021 5:06pm

Obamacare stays.

https://twitter.com/SCOTUSblog/status/1405527425660817412

Brussels Sprout · 18-06-2021 11:20am

Nody wrote: »

Obamacare stays.

https://twitter.com/SCOTUSblog/status/1405527425660817412

Very unusual to have Alito and Thomas on different sides of a ruling. Usually they are lockstep with the Republican position.

Brussels Sprout · 21-06-2021 8:08pm

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1406286034288140306

Regardless of what you may think of him Silver would be widely regarded in America as an elections expert especially on the numerical side of things. As such, it's a good indicator of how ignorant American's are, in general, about this type of voting and the strategies that it entails, that he would say something like this. To be fair he was massively called out in the replies over it.

[Deleted User] · 23-06-2021 8:55am

Apple Daily, an Hong Kong pro democracy news publication is to close for good.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57578926

:-C

Another nail in the coffin of autonomy for Hong Kong, one of the last.

Brussels Sprout · 23-06-2021 1:14pm

Preliminary results of the first count are in in New York and as a result of them Andrew Yang has conceded defeat (he's a distant 4th).

They won't start counting the subsequent rounds until after all of the postal ballots have come in, which might not be until July but it's looking good for Eric Adams.

Yang & Garcia had a voting pact so it will be interesting to see if most of his votes transfer to her and propel her over Wiley into second place.

L1011 · 23-06-2021 1:31pm

The Philippines are making COVID vaccination compulsory, something likely to fracture the inter-country love for Duterte by right-wingers in other countries. However, its not like they actually have the vaccines to give currently

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-filipino-president-rodrigo-duterte-threatens-to-jail-people-if-they-dont-get-vaccinated-12339331

HerrKapitan · 24-06-2021 4:28pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Still no official result in Peru

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1405341960303415298

I can't see any scenario where Fujimori wins this that wouldn't lead to chaos.

Sounds like there won't be a result declared, due to purposeful delay tactics. A supreme Court judge is refusing to participate. Without him they don't have legal numbers to progress and declare a winner.

There is a possibility the Congress will take charge until the matter is resolved, beyond the deadline to declare a president, resulting in a new election.

Brussels Sprout · 24-06-2021 8:30pm

HerrKapitan wrote: »

Sounds like there won't be a result declared, due to purposeful delay tactics. A supreme Court judge is refusing to participate. Without him they don't have legal numbers to progress and declare a winner.

There is a possibility the Congress will take charge until the matter is resolved, beyond the deadline to declare a president, resulting in a new election.

Wow. I wonder was that judge appointed by Fujimora's father?

Surely the people will take the streets if that deadline passes.

Itssoeasy · 01-07-2021 8:40am

Well the New York mayor democratic primary has turned into a mess. They pulled back results due to errors. Disaster. And the candidate that AOC backed in maya wiley was second after the first count but well back which won’t look well for AOCs pull in the Democratic Party.

Brussels Sprout · 01-07-2021 11:07am

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well the New York mayor democratic primary has turned into a mess. They pulled back results due to errors. Disaster. And the candidate that AOC backed in maya wiley was second after the first count but well back which won’t look well for AOCs pull in the Democratic Party.

They've made an absolute dog's dinner of it. Apparently the New York Board of Elections has been grossly incompetent for decades but it's almost impossible to change them for political reasons. The worst part is that Donald trump is now releasing statements saying that the election is being rigged, just like his election was rigged.

For the life of me I don't understand why they didn't just wait for all of the ballots to arrive and then count the votes. Instead they have been releasing provisional results, confusing everyone and then to top it all off they included over 100,000 test ballots in the results set.

Brussels Sprout · 01-07-2021 11:08am

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

If this election runs ok and people see how much more sense it makes than first past the post then hopefully it can gather momentum and become the norm. This would be great since it tends to reward more moderate candidates rather than candidates who only play to one extreme. I truly believe that one of the main causes of the polarisation seen in the USA and UK today is their use of FPTP.

sigh

Joe_ Public · 06-07-2021 10:39pm

There's a long way to go but things not looking so hot for Senor Bolsonaro right now. Maybe Lula can even increase his lead!

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1412442597277249539?s=20

Headshot · 06-07-2021 10:43pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

There's a long way to go but things not looking so hot for Senor Bolsonaro right now. Maybe Lula can even increase his lead!

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1412442597277249539?s=20

Yes great to see

Hopefully they impeach him, nasty piece of work too

Joe_ Public · 06-07-2021 10:59pm

Headshot wrote: »

Yes great to see

Hopefully they impeach him, nasty piece of work too

Word. I'm dreaming of both him and trump being behind bars by the end of the year and, while I'm dreaming, throw Modi in for the trifecta. But would settle for trump trial and bolsonaro impeachment, two out of three wouldn't be at all bad.

Itssoeasy · 19-09-2021 10:36am

German and Canadian elections are taking place today and the German one is notable because Angela Merkel won’t be chancellor anymore which is a big story.

Joe_ Public · 19-09-2021 11:44am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117910361#Comment_117910361

Germany is next week, isn't it, September 26. May well be first election where climate is at the forefront of the campaign which is somewhat encouraging. Though the green candidate, initially touted as a strong candidate to succeed Merkel as chancellor, seems to be having a bit of a mare.

Itssoeasy · 19-09-2021 1:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117910555#Comment_117910555

yes sorry the German one is next week.

pixelburp · 20-09-2021 12:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117910555#Comment_117910555

Without segueing the conversation into Yet Another Brexit Chat, it'll be interesting to see how Merkel's disappearance from world politics will be reported in the non-German press, especially in Britain. I feel like some will lean into a narrative of cracks within the EU forming, of division within German politics (as opposed to the reality of another coalition being formed, as is quite normal)

Brussels Sprout · 20-09-2021 1:55pm

The Canadian election isn't until tomorrow. If the polls are accurate then it's going to be tight.

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