World Politics Digest thread

Brussels Sprout

Belarus

Belarus has been using migrants (mostly from Iraq) as a political weapon by allowing them to fly into Minsk from their home countries so as to get them to their borders with their EU neighbours: Latvia, Lithuania and especially Poland. Poland has deployed the army to their border and strung up barbed wire to keep people from crossing. Migrants are now accumulating in the no-man's land between the 2 countries as Belarus won't leave them back in and temperatures are now hitting 0 degrees Celsius and will drop much lower in the coming weeks.

Poland is well within its rights to defend its borders. The real victims are the migrants who are now likely to die of exposure in their hundreds. If Poland or the other countries leave them in then Belarus will just keep flying in more from their home countries. This is a deeply cynical move by Lukashenko and personally, I suspect the hand of Putin behind it.

Further details

Joe_ Public

Just reading about the presidential elections in Chile. Leading after the first round is Jose Antonio Kast, avowed disciple of Pinochet, who ran a campaign straight from the Trump/Bolsonaro playbook aimed at the usual targets - lefties, migrants, liberals etc. Why do people keep falling for these fascist charlatans? It's depressing.

Second round is a straight run off between Kast and left candidate Gabriel Boric on 19 December. Looks like it might be a very close run thing so I will be doubling my quota of prayers. That poor country has suffered enough.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118208463#Comment_118208463

Just looking at the results. The candidates who came third and fourth represented parties classified as "centre-right to right-wing" on wikipedia. If their votes transfer directly to Kast then he'll win. On the other hand his stance may put off some of the more centrist voters which could make it a very tight run-off.

Joe_ Public

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118211040#Comment_118211040

From all the analysis I've read, it would seem it's very close to call. The guy who came in third with just under 13% is aligned with a party that claims it is neither right nor left - though i note it ran on a number of progressive issues - so nobody seems certain which way those votes might split. Could very well be a 51-49 job either way!

Good loser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118208463#Comment_118208463

From The Economist Boric is as bad as Kast, probably worse. The Communist Party are sitting at his shoulder.

Could be another Chavez.

Nearly 1.5m of Chile's population of 19m are immigrants.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118222318#Comment_118222318

Sounds like the country that was often seen as the most stable on the continent has gotten itself between a rock and a hard place then.

Joe_ Public

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118222318#Comment_118222318

As the Economist is paywalled, i cannot read that piece and see how it justifies the claim that Boric is even worse than Kast, if that is indeed what it is claiming.

What i have read of the Boric agenda would read like reasonable democratic socialism to me. But then, others tend to portray even moderately radical policies as far left extremism, so who knows? Anyway, Boric isn't a communist though, yes, they are part of the leftist alliance backing him. And for sure, that will put some off, but he needs that support to win. Yet, he sharply criticised the communists last week over Nicaragua and made clear that the communist leader would not be a part of his government if elected. So he is at some pain to emphasise he is not beholden to them.

Not suggesting he is best thing since sliced bread, just I personally see no equivalence between him and Kast. None whatsoever.

Brussels Sprout

Ethiopia

A month or two ago things were looking very bad for Tigray and their army, the TPLF. They were surrounded in their own province by government forces who were restricting food aid as a weapon. On the other side of their northern border is Eritrea who sees the TPLF as their sworn enemy. The whole thing seemed primed to be a crushing defeat and possible mass genocide.

I'm not sure how they managed it but the TPLF have had a massive rebound in their fortunes since then and are now marching on the capital, Addis Ababa. Can anyone explain what happened?

Brussels Sprout

Austria

Former chancellor is quitting politics entirely.

VIENNA, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Austrian conservative leader Sebastian Kurz, who resigned as chancellor in October after he was placed under investigation on suspicion of corruption, said on Thursday he was quitting politics in a surprise move that leaves a power vacuum in his party.

Kurz has been the dominant figure of his People's Party and Austrian political life since 2017, when he became party leader and then chancellor, winning a parliamentary election and forming a coalition with the far-right Freedom Party. He told a news conference he was leaving politics altogether.

link

He's only 35 years old! Presumably it's to do with that corruption case. What a career trajectory he's had. Like a rocket that hit the stratosphere and then flamed out and crashed back down to earth.

Loafing Oaf

Valérie Pécresse has been chosen as the 'Gaullist' candidate for the French presidency

I had been thinking of putting a few bob on Barnier to be the next president. No so sure about Madame Pécresse but the same case can be made: French voters are minded to move right of Macron but Le Pen definitely and Zenmour probably are too far 'out there'...

Joe_ Public

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118271459#Comment_118271459

That looks like it will shape up into a real battle on the right to see who goes head to head in a likely run off against macron. The left seems to be nowhere which i assume should benefit the more centrist macron. Bracing to think they have an even more scary prospect than Mme Le Pen but they would appear to have it with Zemmour.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118271742#Comment_118271742

I'm dubious as to how much Zenmour believes his own propaganda. Is he just a guy with an eye for the main chance who spotted a vacancy for a French Trump? I strongly suspect if he makes it to the run-off we will see him tack sharply to the centre.

Joe_ Public

In the presidential run off in Chile, it's looking like a good victory for the left wing candidate Gabriel Boric. With almost a third of the votes counted, he has a healthy looking 8 point lead over his far right rival, Jose Antonio Kast. Most forecasts had it a lot tighter than that.

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1472689504880402434?s=20

Brussels Sprout

Kazakhstan

Unprecedented unrest in Kazakhstan in the past few days has led to the entire government resigning (but not the autocratic leader). The government lifted fuel subsidies and it did not go well for them:

https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1478505840797786112

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1478678072383651847

https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1478719640993947654

They have even torn down a statue of the previous dictator and founding father of the country

https://twitter.com/Peter__Leonard/status/1478764810166845440

The Government have announced a curfew which is just kicking in now - a critical period for them now. Could well be a violent crackdown.

pixelburp

This is a small non-sequitor but there's something uniquely chilling and unsettling about seeing police officers in military gear and balaclavas; possibly the connotations unique to Ireland and it's terrorist past but that footage of the Kazakh police solidarity rang a little uncomfortable.

Yakov P. Golyadkin

Continued unrest in Kazakhstan, the president has requested Russian/Belarusian assistance in dealing with the protests/uprising. Videos on YouTube of gun battles between security forces and protestors/rebels, and the headquarters of the secret service being raided. It could get very ugly indeed.

Brussels Sprout

Security forces in Kazakhstan say they have killed dozens of anti-government rioters in an operation to restore order in the main city, Almaty.

They moved in after protesters tried to take control of police stations in the city, a police spokeswoman said.

Twelve members of the security forces have been killed and 353 injured in the unrest, sparked by a doubling in the cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

Russia is sending in troops at the request of the Kazakh president.

They will be deployed to help "stabilise" the country, which is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) along with Russia, Belarus, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia.

The CSTO confirmed Russian paratroopers were being dispatched as peacekeepers, with advance units already deployed, and footage released by Russian media showed soldiers boarding a military transport plane.

link

I saw as well that the government cut the internet in the entire country and one of the consequences was that the Global Hashrate for Bitcoin Mining (a measure of how much mining is occurring at any one time) dropped by 18%. (After China banned Bitcoin miners last year a lot of them simply moved their mining equipment to Kazakhstan instead)

Brussels Sprout

It's looking very much like Tokayev is making the most of all this by using the opportunity to neutralise the old president and his allies:

In a turn of events that has complicated the narrative around the unfolding drama in Kazakhstan, the authorities on January 8 announced that the recently dismissed head of the security services has been arrested on charges of treason. 

Karim Masimov’s arrest comes only three days after he was dismissed without explanation from his post by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

This turn of events, which implicates a stalwart ally of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev in a suspected political conspiracy, hints at the likelihood of a vicious behind-the-scenes clash among elite insiders. At first glance, it appears the Nazarbayev clan is emerging as the loser.

link

Nazarbayev stepped down as President in 2019 but apparently he still had a lot of power behind the scenes, particularly within the security forces. When the dust settles that may not longer be the case. Presumably, since they renamed Astana in his honour he's seen as above the fray in a father of the Nation kind of way and not in any danger himself. He might have a quiet retirement in store though.

Nody

This should get interesting in how much the Polish government wishes to lose esp. as a double as high fine is coming shortly for the judge committee as well.

BRUSSELS, Feb 8 (Reuters) - The European Commission notified Poland on Tuesday it would withhold cash that the EU was to pay Warsaw as part of regular EU transfers, to cover the first part of fines imposed by the EU's court on Poland which the country did not pay.

Last September, the Court of Justice of the European Union put a 500,000 euro ($571,000) daily fine on Poland for not stopping the operations of its Turow lignite mine and power plant on the border with Czech Republic.This followed a complaint from Prague that its operations were endangering water sources of residents across the border. Poland's eurosceptic and nationalist government refused to comply with the court ruling.

"The Commission has informed Poland that it would proceed with the offsetting of payments for penalties due under case C-121/21 Czechia v Poland on Turów lignite mine", Commission spokesman Balazs Ujvari said in a statement."The offsetting is for penalties covering the period 20/9/2021-19/10/2021", the statement said.

An EU official said the amount withheld to cover the fines for that period was around 15 million euros.

Above taken from here.

Nody

Another bad day for Poland and Hungary.

The European Union's top court has dismissed a Polish and Hungarian challenge to a new law that would allow the EU to cut funds to member countries that violate democratic rights and freedoms.

The final ruling by the Luxembourg-based European Court of Justice marks a milestone in the EU's feud with Poland and Hungary's populist rulers over undercutting the rule of law.

"The full court dismisses the action (by Hungary and Poland)," the court said.

The ruling opens the door for the European Commission to cut funding for member states flouting democratic standards.

Taken from this article.

Brussels Sprout

Turkmenistan

There's a new dictator being sworn into office today. Serdar Berdimuhamedow becomes the third president of Turkmenistan. His father surprisingly announced he was retiring a few months ago and his son won the subsequent election a few days ago (which was described as neither free nor fair). It will be interesting to see if he continues the repressive ways of the first two presidents or if he tries to open up society a little bit (as has happened in neighbouring Uzbekistan over the past few years). This is the second father-son transfer of power in a former soviet republic - Illham Aliyev inherited his ailing father's dictatorship in Azerbaijan in 2003.

Brussels Sprout

Hungary

There is a massive election in Hungary tomorrow. It's a general election where the entire opposition has united in order to unseat Putin-lacky and wannabe fascist Viktor Orban. Orban has the entire media in his corner who are pumping out wall to wall propaganda in his favour.

An incredible fact that I heard during the week: The anointed candidate of the opposition for Prime Minister, Peter Marki-Zay, has gotten a total of 5 minutes speaking time on public television in the past 5 years whereas a recent speech by Orban was replayed nine times in its entirety.

As well as that Orban has gerrymandered the electoral districts in such a way that heavily favours his Fidesz party.

He has also fiddled with the rules for Hungarians living abroad so that those most likely to vote for him (the ethnic Hungarians living in neighbouring regions of other countries) have an easier time voting than those living in western Europe.

But wait, there's more: He has also set up a series of anti LGBT referenda on the same day whose sole purpose is to turn out his base of rural conservative voters. These are the questions that will be asked of voters in those:

• Do you support the teaching of sexual orientation to minors in public education institutions without parental consent?
• Do you support the promotion of sex reassignment therapy for underage children?
• Do you support the unrestricted exposure of underage children to sexually explicit media content that may affect their development?
• Do you support the showing of sex-change media content to minors?

At the start of the year Orban was a sure thing to win this (because of all of these unfair advantages). Russian's invasion of Ukraine has exposed a chink in his armour though. There has been no EU leader who has been more of an ally to Putin than Orban. On many occasions he has used his veto in order to help Putin. This doesn't look good in retrospect. Many Hungarians remember their own invasion by the Russians. For that reason Hungarian media has been showing a pro-Kremlin slant on the invasion, even though people on the Hungarian-Ukrainian border can literally hear the air raid sirens.

If Orban was to lose this would be one silver lining of that invasion. I am not optimistic though.

If he wins I would be in favour of the EU severely throttling the money that they send to Hungary or even kicking them out of the union altogether. The Russian invasion of Ukraine should be a wake up call that they cannot afford to have a fascist amongst their midst.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118870070#Comment_118870070

Jesus I knew the media was slanted towards Orban but I hadn't realised it was that egregious; truly Hungary has shown itself as the Georgia of the EU. Hard to see how any opposition makes inroads with the structure so weighted. As you say, maybe hostility towards Orban's toadying towards Putin finally bites in the àss but that might be too optimistic.

You can see why perhaps there's a resting accession fatigue at the moment, with the last round of candidates like Hungary, Bulgaria and Poland showing themselves to be so corrupt and politically misaligned with the EU's own tenets. Who'd want more of that from Ukraine, Moldova et al.

pixelburp

Looks like Orbán won, increasing his majority n' all. Hungary truly is the democratic wart among the EU bloc; hard to take the result seriously when there are such key, questionable issues with its structures.

A strange decision to take a swipe at the Ukrainian President though, while name-dropping Soros as bogeyman is something I haven't seen in a while. I had honestly forgotten it was a beloved screed of the right-leaning.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/03/viktor-orban-expected-to-win-big-majority-in-hungarian-general-election

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118877339#Comment_118877339

He called out 6 different people or organisations who he had "defeated" in his victory speech. I saw someone on Twitter point out that at least 4 of them were anti-sematic dog whistles.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118877623#Comment_118877623

I don't know enough about Hungarian politics to understand where this is going: is it "just" power for its own sake, weaponising Christian-conservative fear of everything vaguely Western or liberal to keep a small subset of corpulent old men set for life ... or if there's some kind of end-game. A Hungarian exit from the EU? Cos the way Orbán casually antagonises the mouth that feeds him - very much, given Hungary and Poland are (apparently) by far the chief beneficiaries of EU funding - seems like a poor long-term strategy.

Seems like once again the EU must deal with a nation acting the maggot, trying to get a rise out of those only trying to help.

Headshot

Hopefully the EU kicks them out

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118877673#Comment_118877673

Thing is, they can't. Not unless the EU want to confirm every bias held tight by these conservatives - and anyone with a resting belief the EU is undemocratic. Cos it kinda would, in a stroke, undermine the idea that it IS a democratic union. And like all those folks claiming the EU would turf Ireland out of the SM/CU as a result of Brexit, removing Hungary 'cos they're politically unpleasant would cause an immediate, unrecoverable crack in the EU. Every nation East of Germany would suddenly look over their shoulder.

I'm sure many Americans wouldn't shed a tear if Alabama, Georgia or Florida (to name three) left the union but like that slightly embarrassing, unlikeable relative in the family .. we're stuck with Hungary 'til they choose to put money where their mouth is ( I use "they" for convenience, given the apparent gerrymandering and media bias makes it hard to fully call Orbán representative of the nation).

Manach

As per a BBC report, political tourmoil in Sri Lanka due to economic problems: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60975941

HalloweenJack

I'd imagine the calling out people bit is just that he knows he's safe now and can speak more freely about it. I was expecting him to be far more bombastic about Putin and Russia but he seems to have been more controllwd in the run-up to the election. With that out of the way, he probably feels free to go back to beung a contrarian.

Given the Hungarian minority in the part of Western Ukraine that borders Hungary, formerly part of it, he might not be so upset about a splintered, destabilised Ukraine as he could make overtures to that region. It wouldn't surprise me that the Hungarians who vote for Orban are the ones who are bitter about the Treaty of Trianon and the loss of 'Greater' Hungary.

Some interesting developments in Sri Lanka and Pakistan at the moment.

The entire Sri Lankan cabinet resigned because of popular protests, though protestors seem to think its all for show. While Imran Khan's party dissolved the Pakistani parliament after they tried to run a vote.of no confidence.