Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings

28-05-2021 11:06PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Predicting thousands of deaths during flu season is not exactly crystal ball stuff now is it....we lose thousands of people every year during flu season.

Predicting tens of thousands of excess death is off the wall stuff however.

Annual flu deaths run in the low hundreds.

Czech Republic has had 30k deaths with severe restrictions which is equivalent to 15k here, so tens of thousands without significant mitigation was not outrageous at all. And given the data has centered an ifr of 0.6%, it was pretty much bang on.

Sobit1964 · 28-05-2021 11:12PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Did we or did we not have thousands of death not 10s of thousands after pretty much following the path I discussed in March 2020?

Czech Republic has had the equivalent of 15k here with significant restrictions also.

They just sped up their reopening - its odd... the waves hit the continent after Ireland - and yet on the continent restrictions went away faster.

Restaurants and pubs are open inside and out across the central and eastern belt already.

Silentcorner · 28-05-2021 11:14PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Annual flu deaths run in the low hundreds.

Czech Republic has had 30k deaths with severe restrictions which is equivalent to 15k here, so tens of thousands without significant mitigation was not outrageous at all. And given the data has centered an ifr of 0.6%, it was pretty much bang on.

That is not what I said, and well you know it.

We lose thousands of people every year during flu season, they aren't recorded as flu deaths because normally it doesn't matter.

I don't know why you are going on about the Czech Republic...did you make a prediction about there also? Or is the closest you can get to being correct, is that why you picked it....they have a higher percentage of over 65's I'll bet!!!

ceadaoin. · 28-05-2021 11:16PM

Dempo1 wrote: »

4,000 new cases in the UK today, NPHET might be clinching something soon and it won't be fists

Who cares about cases if they don't lead to severe illness, hospitalisations and deaths? If the vaccines work then it's time for the obsession with case numbers to stop.

Sobit1964 · 28-05-2021 11:19PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Annual flu deaths run in the low hundreds.

Because died within 30 days of a positive flu test is a thing? Are you suggesting it should be?

MOH · 28-05-2021 11:20PM

pgj2015 wrote: »

maybe we could wear masks when we have colds, like the Chinese. You know think of other people for once and not be me feiners like most Irish people.

pgj2015 wrote: »

Because we are Irish not British. obviously we have to conduct our own research, we are hardly going to trust theirs.

pgj2015 wrote: »

We are very different nationalities, we act different to each other so this is why we have to do out own experiments. if we just copied them you would have people moaning that we should do our own experimental events. you cant win.

But we should also just follow the Chinese?

pgj2015 wrote: »

We were just talking about the effectiveness of wearing masks, not about the future when we are both vaccinated.

You were literally just talking about wearing masks after the pandemic if you have a cold.

pgj2015 wrote: »

You might be right but I think the masks do prevent people infecting others. I think my friend was in my car 3 times while having covid.

I really hope for your friend's sake that you're better at picking a lane while you're driving than when you're having a discussion.

pgj2015 wrote: »

My understanding of it was the new strain is way more contagious than the other strain we had here in 2020. They said if one person in a household got the old strain, everyone in the household might not contract covid but with the new strain, if one person has it in a household, everyone contracts it.

"The other" strain? Do you mean the first strain that we had in March, the strain that arose in Spain over the summer that made up 70%+ of cases here by late autumn (a fact we completely ignored later and claimed we'd never heard of different strains) or any of the other numerous strains we probably had along the way?

But yeah. Let's assume there was only one "other" strain in 2020. It was mild enough that if you lived 24 hours a day with a group of people they might not all get it? Yet if you spent more than 2 hours in the same restaurant with somebody (or either of you didn't order 9 quid's worth of food) you'd probably catch it?

charlie14 · 28-05-2021 11:26PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

We haven't recorded excess death in 2020 that I can see....so, when you consider that a high percentage of the covid deaths were people who already had serious health complications, given their age and health status...

I mean, if I were to predict we will have 31,000 deaths approx in this country this year (like we get most years) if we release all restrictions....I won't be too far wrong.

This virus is no where near as deadly as were led to believe in March 2020....that much is blatantly obvious from the data, the demographics of the people who died with/from Covid is telling us how deadly this is...

I'd say 10% of deaths were outliers and across all ages...outside of that, we can comfortably predict who the vulnerable were...and those numbers are pretty consistent everywhere, I'm sure there is an outlier somewhere, there always is!

I cannot see excess deaths for 2020 either, but that is because faik the CSO hasn`t provided the complete data on 2020 deaths yet.
What the have provided is a press statement on 27 November.

"Press Statement Vital Statistics Quarter 2 2020" which states that deaths for Q2 2020 were 8,582. 1,063 (14.1%) greater than Q2 2019.
Of the 8,582 Q2 deaths, 1,227 (14.3%) were due to Covid-19.

The majority of our Covid deaths have been in Q1 2021. 1st Jan 2021, according to worldometers, deaths were 2,237. End of Q1 they were 4687. An increase of 2,450 for that quarter.
From the CSO press release to me it`s head in the sand stuff believing we have no excess deaths from Covid.

TomSweeney · 28-05-2021 11:30PM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Who cares about cases if they don't lead to severe illness, hospitalisations and deaths? If the vaccines work then it's time for the obsession with case numbers to stop.

Indeed, but they won't, they need to hang on to fearmongering with case numbers as when they do start to rise again in the autumn they need an excuse to lock us down again.

28-05-2021 11:31PM

theres a huge push now in the states for the Wuhan theory, Americans demanding answers now Fauci has thrown a huge spanner in the works.
this is a huge U TURN..some very fish stuff now.
Trump was racist and a conspiracy theorist and now it's an official THEORY because mainstream media say it's time to take facts seriously..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aez5Huw2Vwc&ab_channel=FoxNewsFoxNewsVerified

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57268111

https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-inquiry/the-sudden-rise-of-the-coronavirus-lab-leak-theory

MOH · 28-05-2021 11:46PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Unlike your snake oil salesmen I don’t believe I have and specialist knowledge other than understanding data

Congrats! When did this happen? Presumably sometime after you decided comparing each 5-day average against the 5-day average from 5 days ago was a useful measure of anything. And not bothering to interpret it. And also ignoring the fact that test volumes tend to vary by weekday, so comparing a Saturday's figures against the previous Monday is pretty much meaningless.

Silentcorner · 29-05-2021 12:00AM

charlie14 wrote: »

I cannot see excess deaths for 2020 either, but that is because faik the CSO hasn`t provided the complete data on 2020 deaths yet.
What the have provided is a press statement on 27 November.

"Press Statement Vital Statistics Quarter 2 2020" which states that deaths for Q2 2020 were 8,582. 1,063 (14.1%) greater than Q2 2019.
Of the 8,582 Q2 deaths, 1,227 (14.3%) were due to Covid-19.

The majority of our Covid deaths have been in Q1 2021. 1st Jan 2021, according to worldometers, deaths were 2,237. End of Q1 they were 4687. An increase of 2,450 for that quarter.
From the CSO press release to me it`s head in the sand stuff believing we have no excess deaths from Covid.

Ya Charlie...there is a lot of ambiguity around our 2020 deaths....maybe that is normal, but you point out they have produced the figures from Q1 2021 already.....

And lets take the year in total before we talk about excess deaths for 2021...

It's not head in the sand stuff when you look at the ages of the people who have succumb to Covid.

IF this was taking lives in equal numbers across all age groups, then that would be a different matter, but thankfully, this virus isn't any where near as deadly as we were first led to believe.

Silentcorner · 29-05-2021 12:06AM

rusty cole wrote: »

theres a huge push now in the states for the Wuhan theory, Americans demanding answers now Fauci has thrown a huge spanner in the works.
this is a huge U TURN..some very fish stuff now.
Trump was racist and a conspiracy theorist and now it's an official THEORY because mainstream media say it's time to take facts seriously..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aez5Huw2Vwc&ab_channel=FoxNewsFoxNewsVerified

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57268111

https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-inquiry/the-sudden-rise-of-the-coronavirus-lab-leak-theory

There is a can of worms being opened up here that will get very interesting and potentially have an impact everywhere.

Imagine what would happen if (and I stress the word if) the virus was man made, came from a lab either deliberately or accidentally.

It would put a dent in the climate alarmists view that the virus is as a result of climate change.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0205/1195355-covid-climate-change/

Interesting times....

Silentcorner · 29-05-2021 12:08AM

TomSweeney wrote: »

Indeed, but they won't, they need to hang on to fearmongering with case numbers as when they do start to rise again in the autumn they need an excuse to lock us down again.

I'd nearly be of the view that the reluctance of Nphet to use RAT is because of just that, they would lose their primary tool to hammer us with fear.

Stormyteacup · 29-05-2021 12:09AM

rusty cole wrote: »

theres a huge push now in the states for the Wuhan theory, Americans demanding answers now Fauci has thrown a huge spanner in the works.
this is a huge U TURN..some very fish stuff now.
Trump was racist and a conspiracy theorist and now it's an official THEORY because mainstream media say it's time to take facts seriously..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aez5Huw2Vwc&ab_channel=FoxNewsFoxNewsVerified

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57268111

https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-inquiry/the-sudden-rise-of-the-coronavirus-lab-leak-theory

There was a very good vid posted a few pages back and can’t recall who put it up. Depending on poster I’ll sometimes give a link a whirl, and you can tell pretty quickly if it’s extreme nonsense. But this featured an English science writer (think he wrote for NY Times for a long time maybe...) - anyway it was a small bit of a slog as the guy was a little boring but very balanced.

He went into the technicalities of why he leans towards a man-made error resulting in this particular virus, with evidence but not conclusive evidence to arrive at his opinion.

Very much worth a watch and will try dig it up. But one point made was the fact that Trump did the theory no favours by advocating it, which shunted it into conspiracy land and led to many people naturally opposed to Trump ideologies dismissing the theory out of hand.

It may never be proven, but there’s definitely reason for it to be considered. It was a little alarming how quickly it was relegated to CT considering the geographical coincidences, but then Trump had a big part to play in that.

Whatsisname · 29-05-2021 12:13AM

pgj2015 wrote: »

When was this?

Start of November.

Silentcorner · 29-05-2021 12:24AM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

It may never be proven, but there’s definitely reason for it to be considered. It was a little alarming how quickly it was relegated to CT considering the geographical coincidences, but then Trump had a big part to play in that.

The fact that media companies have never investigated the origins of the virus is something that should stand out for everyone.....they just attacked everybody who wasn't on board for hard lock downs including politicians, medical experts...you were shamed by media companies, didn't matter how many years experience an expert may have had.

We have seen our own version of that here...

And as for mention of therapeutics, that's Russian disinformation or some such nonsense.

PTH2009 · 29-05-2021 12:34AM

The media scare game wont be going away anytime soon sadly. A rise in anything will be reported as the end of the world

The country will go insane if last years timeline repeats itself, i know i will

charlie14 · 29-05-2021 12:45AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Ya Charlie...there is a lot of ambiguity around our 2020 deaths....maybe that is normal, but you point out they have produced the figures from Q1 2021 already.....

And lets take the year in total before we talk about excess deaths for 2021...

It's not head in the sand stuff when you look at the ages of the people who have succumb to Covid.

IF this was taking lives in equal numbers across all age groups, then that would be a different matter, but thankfully, this virus isn't any where near as deadly as we were first led to believe.

I didn`t point out that the CSO have produced the figures for Q1 2021, and there is no ambiguity from the CSO on Q2 2020 excess deaths and Covid deaths.
Excess deaths were 14.1% greater (1,063 deaths) and deaths due to Covid for the period were 1,227. 14.3% of all deaths for the period.

At what age does human life become meaningless for you as opposed to those younger?
As well as being an advocate for the natural herd immunity nonsense are you also an advocate for euthanasia, because it certainly sounds as if you are.

This virus has shown just how deadly it is if left to its own devices without adequate restrictions.
You have only to look next door at the UK who originally went the natural immunity light touch restriction route, or Sweden doing the same.
Sweden 14,413 deaths to date. Excess deaths for 2020 9,175 (10.3% increase). Norway, just over half Sweden`s population, 783 deaths to date. Finland, just over half Sweden`s population, 948 deaths to date.

Tork · 29-05-2021 12:46AM

It isn't just the media who are at the scare game. This thread is a sure-fire way to shatter the mental health of people who have a tendency to be fragile and anxious.

gozunda · 29-05-2021 01:34AM

MOH wrote: »

Did I say close the schools? Stop putting words in my mouth.

That's a question btw. You indicated that there was an issue with schools being open.

MOH wrote:

Yeah, here we just kept repeating the lie that schools are perfectly safe and kept them open

Hence the question.

gozunda wrote:

So your saying close the schools? I can't imagine that's going to go down too well hereabouts

MOH wrote: »

I'm saying schools kickstarted the second wave in September and reversed the slight decrease that had started before they opened this time.
I'm also saying NPHET members have repeatedly made misleading statements about the safety of schools. They've evolved along the way.
- There is no evidence that schools are spreading Covid (difficult when you don't believe in contact tracing and thus have no actual idea how 80% of cases are transmitted
- Schools are fine but activities around them such as dropping off or picking up children might spread covid (equivalent to "pubs are fine but drunk people hugging each other might spread covid")
' Schools are fine. There has been an increase in cases since schools went back but this correlation can't be taken as an indication that schools are the cause (yet a 10% increase in cases in one county where pubs were open vs another where they were closed was cited as "unambiguous evidence" that pubs were the cause, despite other factors being noted in the report)
- There has been an increase in cases due to schools, but this is transient (Philip Nolan finally gives up any pretence of credibility and buys a snake oil bottling plant)
There may be an argument that despite the serious effect schools have had on the trajectory of covid cases, that's outweighed by the education benefit and economic benefit of keeping them open and freeing up parents to return to work. But given the amount of effort that's been put into maintaining the fiction that schools are perfectly safe, and blaming everything else instead, I suspect it's an argument the government don't think they can win, or more likely would find politically untenable.

Thanks for the essay btw - but that got absolutley nothing to do with my comment to which you replied. But hey no matter...

29-05-2021 07:07AM

MOH wrote: »

Congrats! When did this happen? Presumably sometime after you decided comparing each 5-day average against the 5-day average from 5 days ago was a useful measure of anything. And not bothering to interpret it. And also ignoring the fact that test volumes tend to vary by weekday, so comparing a Saturday's figures against the previous Monday is pretty much meaningless.

I think you have me mixed up with someone else here

Dempo1 · 29-05-2021 07:16AM

PTH2009 wrote: »

The media scare game wont be going away anytime soon sadly. A rise in anything will be reported as the end of the world

The country will go insane if last years timeline repeats itself, i know i will

I personally thought media outlets generally have lost interest in this story months ago. It barely features in news bulletins, case numbers begrudgingly mentioned towards the end of main news shows, fewer and fewer live reports from the department of health and anytime now RTE"s news room will be vacated with most if not all its main presenters, correspondents off on holidays and at the same time.

It was only last December /January when they started to show interest again after months of little or no coverage.

pgj2015 · 29-05-2021 08:47AM

Whatsisname wrote: »

Start of November.

That was probably the old strain so. That was what I was saying earlier. The new strain, if one has it in a house, everyone gets it. I have seen this myself with the people I know who have contracted it.

Boggles · 29-05-2021 09:43AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Well, you clearly haven't been listening to people who understand what they are talking about....

You've spent too much time listening to the hystericals.

Can you name one prediction of yours regarding this virus that has been remotely accurate?

Who were you listening to last year when you declared the pandemic was over?

The cook book author or the anti vax "doctor" you referenced as a source of your information?

ceadaoin. · 29-05-2021 09:45AM

pgj2015 wrote: »

That was probably the old strain so. That was what I was saying earlier. The new strain, if one has it in a house, everyone gets it. I have seen this myself with the people I know who have contracted it.

There are no new strains. Its variants. And what you're saying isn't true statistically.

Silentcorner · 29-05-2021 09:46AM

Boggles wrote: »

Who were you listening to last year when you declared the pandemic was over?

The cook book author or the anti vax "doctor" you referenced as a source of your information?

Ah Boggles is back asking questions....

You never answered any questions of mine, you always scarper...

Do you think this virus transmits outdoors? If so, what snake oil salesman told you that?

Do you think asymptomatic cases transmit? If so what snake oil salesman told you that?

Boggles · 29-05-2021 09:58AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Ah Boggles is back asking questions....

You never answered any questions of mine, you always scarper...

Do you think this virus transmits outdoors? If so, what snake oil salesman told you that?

Do you think asymptomatic cases transmit? If so what snake oil salesman told you that?

Yes to both. You have said so yourself.

But anyway if you could answer mine now.

Who were you listening to last year when you declared the pandemic was over?

The cook book author or the anti vax "doctor" you referenced as a source of your information?

Silentcorner · 29-05-2021 09:59AM

charlie14 wrote: »

I didn`t point out that the CSO have produced the figures for Q1 2021, and there is no ambiguity from the CSO on Q2 2020 excess deaths and Covid deaths.
Excess deaths were 14.1% greater (1,063 deaths) and deaths due to Covid for the period were 1,227. 14.3% of all deaths for the period.

At what age does human life become meaningless for you as opposed to those younger?
As well as being an advocate for the natural herd immunity nonsense are you also an advocate for euthanasia, because it certainly sounds as if you are.

This virus has shown just how deadly it is if left to its own devices without adequate restrictions.
You have only to look next door at the UK who originally went the natural immunity light touch restriction route, or Sweden doing the same.
Sweden 14,413 deaths to date. Excess deaths for 2020 9,175 (10.3% increase). Norway, just over half Sweden`s population, 783 deaths to date. Finland, just over half Sweden`s population, 948 deaths to date.

If you are going to discuss death rates can you show a bit of emotional maturity, instead you are engaging in hyper emotional sensitivity as a tool of aggression....

The data for deaths in 2020 is not showing much excess death, you can't just isolate the flu season and use that as an example of excess death.

What percentage of people who dies from/with Covid were in the elderly demographic? 80%? You have to ask yourself, did the state fail these people, should we have embarked in more "focused protection" type policy then?

Silentcorner · 29-05-2021 10:03AM

Boggles wrote: »

Yes to both. You have said so yourself.

But any if you could answer mine now.

I have already shared the people who i spent most time listening to, you seem to forget that...it was only the other day...and my mistake, was not factoring in a winter surge, hardly a hanging offense for an amateur....but you seem almost obsessed with attempting to undermine every thing I say, it's pathetic.

What snake oil salesman told you that Asyptomatic people transmit the virus?

This was one of the reasons we were all told we had to lock down by the way....

gozunda · 29-05-2021 10:04AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

...

Do you think this virus transmits outdoors? If so, what snake oil salesman told you that?

Do you think asymptomatic cases transmit? If so what snake oil salesman told you that?

Is this the new script which replaces "the man on the telly" telling us things & etc?

Good to know ...

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings