Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

stephenjmcd · 23-05-2021 1:31pm

Paul Reid on Radio 1 saying its difficult to get exact numbers of vaccines administered through GPs given the issues being faced however he expects close to 300k doses in the coming week to be administered in total

Happydays2020 · 23-05-2021 1:32pm

iguana wrote: »

There was a gap between each decade but no gap within each decade. So a gap between 60 and 59 and between 50 and 49 but no gap from 65 to 64 or 55 to 54. Which is why everyone is wondering. Will the 40s be the first decade to have a gap within it. Which there could be as it's a larger demographic.

I expect there will be 3/4 days gap before the portal opens for 40 - 44.

celt262 · 23-05-2021 1:33pm

Happydays2020 wrote: »

I expect there will be 3/4 days gap before the portal opens for 40 - 44.

Why?

stephenjmcd · 23-05-2021 1:36pm

celt262 wrote: »

Why?

At a guess, 40-49 is a larger cohort than they've done before. Start getting appointments out of the 49,48 etc, reduce the pool waiting by a bit and then open up for 40-44

Happydays2020 · 23-05-2021 1:40pm

celt262 wrote: »

Why?

Because it is the biggest demographic. There are 50s and 60s still to be vaccinated. There is uncertainty on supply of some vaccines. So maybe pausing registration by a few days will assist with both planning and managing expectations.

But a guess really.

Jim_Hodge · 23-05-2021 1:43pm

celt262 wrote: »

Why?

There are people in their 60s still waiting on appointments. A break in registration allows it to be kept manageable and makes sense.

23-05-2021 1:44pm

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yes there's a large misunderstanding really when the word effective is used.

I don't think most of the public really understand what is meant by efficency of the vaccine but that's the fault of the reporting on such.

The study is on the Indian variant only
It says the Astra jab is on 2nd dose 60% effective
But only 33% on 1 dose
Thats 12 weeks waiting to get up to 60%
15 in reality (3 wks after the 2nd dose)
Versus 6 weeks in reality if you are on pfizer to get up to 88% coverage on its 2nd jab

With the Indian variant going to be dominant,thats a Whopping difference between the 2 vaccine's
Period

23-05-2021 1:48pm

Marine Layer wrote: »

The study is on the Indian variant only
It says the Astra jab is on 2nd dose 60% effective
But only 33% on 1 dose
Thats 12 weeks waiting to get up to 60%
15 in reality (3 wks after the 2nd dose)
Versus 6 weeks in reality if you are on pfizer to get up to 88% coverage on its 2nd jab

With the Indian variant going to be dominant,thats a Whopping difference between the 2 vaccine's
Period

But those figures are based purely on effectiveness at preventing symptomatic infection. It is likely the protection against severe disease/hospitalisation and death are far higher, even after one dose.

23-05-2021 1:49pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

But those figures are based purely on effectiveness at preventing symptomatic infection. It is likely the protection against severe disease/hospitalisation and death are far higher, even after one dose.

They're over all actually

km79 · 23-05-2021 1:50pm

Happydays2020 wrote: »

I expect there will be 3/4 days gap before the portal opens for 40 - 44.

I agree
End of next week

23-05-2021 1:51pm

Marine Layer wrote: »

They're over all actually

“This study provides reassurance that two doses of either vaccine offer high levels of protection against symptomatic disease from the B.1.617.2 [India] variant and we expect the vaccines to be even more effective at preventing hospitalisation and death,” said Mary Ramsay, head of immunisation at PHE.

Cloudio9 · 23-05-2021 1:53pm

iguana wrote: »

There was a gap between each decade but no gap within each decade. So a gap between 60 and 59 and between 50 and 49 but no gap from 65 to 64 or 55 to 54. Which is why everyone is wondering. Will the 40s be the first decade to have a gap within it. Which there could be as it's a larger demographic.

The 50’s and 60’s were opened up as a decade though. The 40’s were split due to its larger population and of course more and more of the older cohorts also need to be getting second doses in parallel.

Goldengirl · 23-05-2021 1:53pm

Deeper Blue wrote: »

I'm not sure that's a great idea

There are probably a fair few infections in the days immediately after vaccination due to the protection not properly kicking in.

But if people see that there were 40 cases in vaccinated individuals many would panic and the likes of ISAG would be on rte saying the vaccines aren't working etc. Even if those 40 cases were within a few days of the first dose.

This is what NPHET should be saying very clearly from now on .
With no more sensationalist " black cloud" headlines being thrown out for those reporters who are just there looking for that sort of news to report .

On the subject of genome sequencing .. @ astrofool
25% of cases are randomly being sequenced , it might be more now , and any suspect specimens taken in hospital are notified directly to HSE and NVRL .

stephenjmcd · 23-05-2021 1:58pm

Marine Layer wrote: »

They're over all actually

No its not.

Again a misunderstanding of what the term effective actually relates to. Your reply proved my inital point that there is a common misunderstanding as to what effective relates to.

Read the briefing not the headlines

ClosedAccountFuzzy · 23-05-2021 1:58pm

I'm not really sure how a break in registration achieves anything other than keeping the database smaller, which is hardly relevant.

You might manage expectations a bit, but it makes zero practical difference. If anything, having people registered sooner would at least let them plan logistics better.

The same number of people will still want to be vaccinated - in one case you have their details. In the other you don't.

23-05-2021 2:00pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

“This study provides reassurance that two doses of either vaccine offer high levels of protection against symptomatic disease from the B.1.617.2 [India] variant and we expect the vaccines to be even more effective at preventing hospitalisation and death,” said Mary Ramsay, head of immunisation at PHE.

Yes,but absolutely no doubt that pfizer is way out in front at preventing you getting sick at all and ergo long covid

23-05-2021 2:04pm

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No its not.

Again a misunderstanding of what the term effective actually relates to. Your reply proved my inital point that there is a common misunderstanding as to what effective relates to.

Read the briefing not the headlines

I am NOT interested in stats on severe illness
I already know that if you dont get sick at all,you won't have severe illness
That bits intuitive
Whats important is pfizer is way in front in resulting in no illness from that indian variant

Goldengirl · 23-05-2021 2:11pm

Marine Layer wrote: »

I am NOT interested in stats on severe illness
I already know that if you dont get sick at all,you won't have severe illness
That bits intuitive
Whats important is pfizer is way in front in resulting in no illness from that indian variant

Way out in front ?
They are all showing similar results .
What ..are you talking about ?

23-05-2021 2:14pm

Goldengirl wrote: »

Way out in front ?
They are all showing similar results .
What ..are you talking about ?

Regarding the Indian variant
Pfizer effacacy 88%
Astra 60%
A third better overall
Both great at severe illness which is brilliant
But pfizer much better at preventing illness alltogether
Thats what I'm talking about

Goldengirl · 23-05-2021 2:17pm

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

I'm not really sure how a break in registration achieves anything other than keeping the database smaller, which is hardly relevant.

You might manage expectations a bit, but it makes zero practical difference. If anything, having people registered sooner would at least let them plan logistics better.

The same number of people will still want to be vaccinated - in one case you have their details. In the other you don't.

If that was the case they should ask the whole population to register within a week ?!

It's about managing supplies and appointment dates , with some degree of organisation and least wait from registration as possible
Large numbers in 40 to 49 year age group.
They are probably learning from the delays that occurred with the older age groups also which is as it should be .

Cork2021 · 23-05-2021 2:23pm

Brian mccraith with estimates below

https://twitter.com/muirtheimhne/status/1396452900814082052?s=21

Beasty · 23-05-2021 2:40pm

Threads merged

Goldengirl · 23-05-2021 2:44pm

Marine Layer wrote: »

Regarding the Indian variant
Pfizer effacacy 88%
Astra 60%
A third better overall
Both great at severe illness which is brilliant
But pfizer much better at preventing illness alltogether
Thats what I'm talking about

Anything above 50 to 60 % in a vaccine preventing illness is excellent .
The numbers for serious disease are well above the 80s which is most important , for both these vaccines with this variant .
Also those numbers will most likely increase over a number of weeks .
We are very lucky to have such great performing vaccines .

Cork2021 · 23-05-2021 2:45pm

It’s surely possible that we can get another 35% vaccinated with a first dose by the 30th of June? Still have 38 days to do it

podgeandrodge · 23-05-2021 2:47pm

Marine Layer wrote: »

Yes,but absolutely no doubt that pfizer is way out in front at preventing you getting sick at all and ergo long covid

Goldengirl wrote: »

Way out in front ?
They are all showing similar results .
What ..are you talking about ?

Ok, I will admit to being confused on this.

My understanding is that, ignoring severe outcomes (which may show much higher effectiveness for AZ, and perhaps there is less road to travel for Pfizer as it's already higher for preventing symptomatic infection), Pfizer is, as MarineLayer said, out in front at preventing you getting mildly sick.

If Pfizer is 88% effective against symptomatic disease from the Indian variant a couple of weeks after the second dose, and AZ is 60%, then what is wrong with saying Pfizer is "way out in front" at preventing symptomatic disease? (I note that they say the longer gap may be a factor here, so the difference may drop).

Surely, when it comes to less severe symptoms, it's more beneficial to get Pfizer as current data stands? Does this not have implications for health care workers in the field?

23-05-2021 2:49pm

The reason for the lower efficacy for AZ is mentioned in the study. Its due to the shorter follow up period. AZ was rolled out a month later and takes longer to build up efficacy so the results may be a bit skewed.

We seen from the PHE report last week that over a 12 week follow up period AZ can match Pfizer.

cameramonkey · 23-05-2021 2:52pm

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Paul Reid on Radio 1 saying its difficult to get exact numbers of vaccines administered through GPs given the issues being faced however he expects close to 300k doses in the coming week to be administered in total

Also said that 2.4 million vaccines administered.

23-05-2021 2:59pm

Goldengirl wrote: »

Anything above 50 to 60 % in a vaccine preventing illness is excellent .
The numbers for serious disease are well above the 80s which is most important , for both these vaccines with this variant .
Also those numbers will most likely increase over a number of weeks .
We are very lucky to have such great performing vaccines .

Ah I do understand your perspective and agree that if you are unfortunate to get this disease,then having had a vaccine in 8 or 9 out of 10 cases will have stopped you dying or being in hospital
But avoiding it alltogether does that too aswell as avoiding it altogether which is where pfizer is winning
Not having covid at all is it goes without saying a better outcome than having it and not needing hospital or than having it,needing hospital but not dying

drunkmonkey · 23-05-2021 3:02pm

90% efficient doesn't mean you have only a 10% chance of ending up in hospital.

Cloudio9 · 23-05-2021 3:04pm

Cork2021 wrote: »

It’s surely possible that we can get another 35% vaccinated with a first dose by the 30th of June? Still have 38 days to do it

It gets slower now because all the people who got Pfizer and Modena in the May ramp up need second doses in June.(assuming we continue at the 250-300k rate)

Corholio · 23-05-2021 3:10pm

I'm guessing the 39-35 age group would not be until around late June now? Have they released any sort of estimate timeline at all?

Bubbaclaus · 23-05-2021 3:10pm

I think people are a bit overly fixated on the 80% by end of June target. Even if it is missed, we will only be a period of a few days from passing it anyway given the rate of vaccination going on.

23-05-2021 3:13pm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

90% efficient doesn't mean you have only a 10% chance of ending up in hospital.

I understand it to be 10% of your normal chance of ending up in hospital with it and am good with that

is_that_so · 23-05-2021 3:48pm

Corholio wrote: »

I'm guessing the 39-35 age group would not be until around late June now? Have they released any sort of estimate timeline at all?

You can guess at it - Over 50s done by mid-June, then a decent chunk of the over 40s by the end of June. The 35-39 group should register after June BH with shots starting near the end of the month.

eoinbn · 23-05-2021 3:50pm

Cloudio9 wrote: »

It gets slower now because all the people who got Pfizer and Modena in the May ramp up need second doses in June.(assuming we continue at the 250-300k rate)

Supply increases to ~310k-315k mRNA doses weekly in June. We should be able to use 170k-200k as first doses. However we are due to give ~150k second doses of AZ to young healthcare workers who might be given mRNA instead.

On that basis it will be the middle of July before we hit 80%.

Corholio · 23-05-2021 4:05pm

is_that_so wrote: »

You can guess at it - Over 50s done by mid-June, then a decent chunk of the over 40s by the end of June. The 35-39 group should register after June BH with shots starting near the end of the month.

Thanks for the guess at it. You think they'd be registering that early (after Bank Holiday) in the month for 35-39?

is_that_so · 23-05-2021 4:07pm

Corholio wrote: »

Thanks for the guess at it. You think they'd be registering that early (after Bank Holiday) in the month for 35-39?

Based on the progress so far it seems about right.

stephenjmcd · 23-05-2021 4:12pm

eoinbn wrote: »

Supply increases to ~310k-315k mRNA doses weekly in June. We should be able to use 170k-200k as first doses. However we are due to give ~150k second doses of AZ to young healthcare workers who might be given mRNA instead.

On that basis it will be the middle of July before we hit 80%.

They're still giving AZ as dose 2 regardless of age.

Friend of mine, 27 year old nurse got an apointment yesterday for an MVC next week, AZ dose 2. 12 weeks after first, didn't expect it until 16 weeks but NIAC advice changed

astrofool · 23-05-2021 4:16pm

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yes there's a large misunderstanding really when the word effective is used.

I don't think most of the public really understand what is meant by efficency of the vaccine but that's the fault of the reporting on such.

And we have another page spent on a misunderstanding of what the study says

Really, the only conclusion that can be made from the study is that following the dosing schedule of AZ and Pfizer gives a fantastic response to different variants of SARS-COV2, there just isn't the data to say anything else (and the data reported doesn't control for when a vaccine was given, how many weeks from 1st dose there were effects, what the symptoms of those infected were etc.). Given these are 2 dose vaccines there will not be data on what happens if the 2nd dose isn't taken.

suttonboi1 · 23-05-2021 4:28pm

Been out of the loop on this thread over the past week, but do we have any indication of total vaccinated at this stage, and make up of first, second and one dose shots?

Fann Linn · 23-05-2021 4:29pm

How are the vaccines allocated? Is it a case of whatever lands at Dublin Airport is simply shipped around the country? I'm asking as yesterday I received Pfizer at a Vaccination centre and only a few weeks back some workmates got AZ at the same one?
Just curious!

salmocab · 23-05-2021 4:40pm

Fann Linn wrote: »

How are the vaccines allocated? Is it a case of whatever lands at Dublin Airport is simply shipped around the country? I'm asking as yesterday I received Pfizer at a Vaccination centre and only a few weeks back some workmates got AZ at the same one?
Just curious!

It’s a logistics exercise based on what’s available and what’s needed. So 4 weeks after your Pfizer jab Pfizer needs to be available from the same place. Then that day they will administer more Pfizer first jabs so another 4 weeks that needs to get more etc etc.

ClosedAccountFuzzy · 23-05-2021 5:09pm

Goldengirl wrote: »

If that was the case they should ask the whole population to register within a week ?!

It's about managing supplies and appointment dates , with some degree of organisation and least wait from registration as possible
Large numbers in 40 to 49 year age group.
They are probably learning from the delays that occurred with the older age groups also which is as it should be .

It's still just a queue. Whether you've registered them online and have the data or don't is somewhat irrelevant. They'll have to wait until they're called one way or the other.

I can appreciate slowing it to avoid the IT systems overloading, but it's all cloud based so it's also sort of irrelevant.

Micky 32 · 23-05-2021 6:21pm

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1396498392633708555?s=21

hmmm · 23-05-2021 6:41pm

Micky 32 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1396498392633708555?s=21

This sounds like incredibly good news - is it?

Sammy2012 · 23-05-2021 6:54pm

Is there any talk of opening the vaccine portal for the rest of the 40s yet? I'm eagerly awaiting mine but need them to open the 35 to 39 age group first. So interested to see will I have my 1st dose by the end of June

JTMan · 23-05-2021 7:03pm

HSE indicates people in 40s will not get AstraZeneca or Janssen vaccines, The Irish Times reports here.

km79 · 23-05-2021 7:11pm

JTMan wrote: »

HSE indicates people in 40s will not get AstraZeneca or Janssen vaccines, The Irish Times reports here.

Interesting

IRISHSPORTSGUY · 23-05-2021 7:12pm

JTMan wrote: »

HSE indicates people in 40s will not get AstraZeneca or Janssen vaccines, The Irish Times reports here.

I don't know why we have to make this so complicated. Let the people decide, all adults, if they want to opt in for AZ or Janssen like in Germany and Belgium.

Sleeper12 · 23-05-2021 7:15pm

JTMan wrote:

HSE indicates people in 40s will not get AstraZeneca or Janssen vaccines, The Irish Times reports

It's unlikely anyone will be getting AZ except if they have already had a first dose of it. J&J delivery is way down so unlikely to be offered to under 50s

Vaccine Megathread No 2 - Read OP before posting

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