The great myths of housing

hometruths · 23-05-2021 1:47pm #1

A provocative article in todays Indo by Conor Skehan - Let’s demolish the four great myths of housing

His myths are:

The First Time Buyer - he reckons too much attention paid to the needs of this cohort given that they represent approx 0.3% of all homeowners and 25% of annual sales
Generation Rent - "a myth making trope that is used to persuade people that they are victims"
Dead Money - "the equivalent of saying that food money is a waste because you'll be hungry again tomorrow - so buy a cow, chicken or or an orchard instead"
The Housing Crisis - the greatest myth of all. Vested interests "continually trying to convince the population that they are housing victims."

One of his arguments against the crisis is that we already have supply, and that new builds are not the solution:

We have more than 200,000 vacant homes across Ireland. When we encourage or allow the Government to support new build housing instead of refurbishing, then we are choosing to move away from availability and affordability.

I don't agree with everything he says, but I think he has some valid points - the supply crisis is not as bad as we are led to believe, and there are other solutions available than new builds.

I wholeheartedly agree that of all the measures to tackle housing, myth busting is the most important.

Yet the most important work remains taking on the job of 'myth-busting' about housing - which risks incurring the wrath of those with a vested interest in keeping the population in a state of victimhood.
If we frame our questions differently, we might be pleasantly surprised to learn that housing can be more affordable than headlines suggest.

Well worth reading the article for a different take on the questions.

Mrs OBumble · 23-05-2021 2:08pm

Indeed.

"Second hand" is a phrase that needs to be banished from housing discussions.

Most people do not buy new houses.

Pawwed Rig · 23-05-2021 2:10pm

The article is behind a pay wall for me

Hello 2D Person Below · 23-05-2021 2:11pm

I see a minor flaw in his First Time Buyers being only .3% of transactions argument...

hometruths · 23-05-2021 2:12pm

Hello 2D Person Below wrote: »

I see a minor flaw in his First Time Buyers being only .03% of transactions argument...

Which is?

Damien360 · 23-05-2021 2:26pm

Housing at an affordable price is what is needed. Problem is, what is acceptable quality for one is not good enough for another.

So with that in mind, price control is what is required. Don’t think it would be legal under eu law but here goes.

What if the state forced fixed rental pricing on let’s say a 3 bed semi anywhere in the country at the maximum price of let’s say 1200 per month. All investors have to pay tax on the rent same as any other landlord to prevent a monopoly that could force a change later. That’s important. Overnight it would take the wind out of the housing prices speculators. A house price collapse as it is currently out of control. The hit on that is all the people caught again in negative equity and who picks up the tab. The time to do all that was straight after the last bust. If it keeps going the way it’s going, we may get another chance to do this.

Keeping the price of rent at a maximum would also ensure that business would not need to increase wages to keep up with staff demands due to ever increasing rents. It would by default keep the selling price lower of houses and keep mortgage costs far more manageable. All this is predicated on the supply being present.

Nobody has a right to buy beside their mammy and will have to move further afield. That puts pressure on commuting distance again. It would need a proper public transport infrastructure and not just one for Dublin.

The biggest issue in fixing prices is whether the build costs would be covered by the selling prices of new builds. For existing houses, this is not an issue but then you could end up creating a two-tier system which we don’t want.

All this at the top of my head, so attack at will but I would like to see other ideas.

Dav010 · 23-05-2021 4:58pm

schmittel wrote: »

Which is?

Think about it.

jimmycrackcorm · 23-05-2021 5:13pm

Damien360 wrote:

What if the state forced fixed rental pricing on letâ€™s say a 3 bed semi anywhere in the country at the maximum price of letâ€™s say 1200 per month. All investors have to pay tax on the rent same as any other landlord to prevent a monopoly that could force a change later. Thatâ€™s important. Overnight it would take the wind out of the housing prices speculators. A house price collapse as it is currently out of control. The hit on that is all the people caught again in negative equity and who picks up the tab. The time to do all that was straight after the last bust. If it keeps going the way itâ€™s going, we may get another chance to do this.

Populist crap. It won't provide a single extra house and create a disincentive to investors to buy rental properties. It's as if you're saying renters should have nowhere to live.

When RPZ rules haven't worked to make rents cheaper, how do you think more price controls will?

Also your strategy means that people in rural areas paying 600 now will end up paying 1200.

The only solution that can work to solve rent prices is supply and removing the obstacles that prevent that.

Murph85 · 23-05-2021 5:28pm

Read the article , some truth, a lot of crap... his point, leave things as they are, do t question them.. why question the rip off pricing and accept you should commute 40km each way, instead of living where you want to live and work in the dockland etc , where the Infrastructure already is, where the employment is. Where you are beside city entre and the coast

Murph85 · 23-05-2021 5:30pm

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Populist crap. It won't provide a single extra house and create a disincentive to investors to buy rental properties. It's as if you're saying renters should have nowhere to live.

When RPZ rules haven't worked to make rents cheaper, how do you think more price controls will?

Also your strategy means that people in rural areas paying 600 now will end up paying 1200.

The only solution that can work to solve rent prices is supply and removing the obstacles that prevent that.

Colm McCarty also has a good piece in the indo, the entire planning system in relation to the courts is one of the elephants in the room, that they will have too address...

James Bond Junior · 23-05-2021 5:37pm

1. Make it possible to evict mortgage defaulters and seize properties.

2. Stop taxing landlords out the door would help. 48% effective tax rate on the total amount is a total barrier to investment which impacts supply.

3. Let the all landlords are evil mentality die with the famine. Give landlords fair rights for delinquent tenants. Landlords are leaving in droves, constricting supply because they are always up against it.

4. Make planning and building of high quality apartments in urban areas more affordable. Minimum sizes to allow apartment living to become a viable option for families instead of having to aspire to a 3 bed semi.

5. Stop government interference. Help to buy schemes exacerbate price rises. VAT on new builds in my opinion is ethically wrong. Family homes should not be subject to VAT. BTL is different but not a PPR.

Darc19 · 23-05-2021 5:48pm

James Bond Junior wrote: »

1. Make it possible to evict mortgage defaulters and seize properties.

2. Stop taxing landlords out the door would help. 48% effective tax rate on the total amount is a total barrier to investment which impacts supply.

3. Let the all landlords are evil mentality die with the famine. Give landlords fair rights for delinquent tenants. Landlords are leaving in droves, constricting supply because they are always up against it.

4. Make planning and building of high quality apartments in urban areas more affordable. Minimum sizes to allow apartment living to become a viable option for families instead of having to aspire to a 3 bed semi.

5. Stop government interference. Help to buy schemes exacerbate price rises. VAT on new builds in my opinion is ethically wrong. Family homes should not be subject to VAT. BTL is different but not a PPR.

100% agree. Non payers - mortgage holders and tenants - should not be pandered to the way they are.

Likewise, landlords must also give deposits back immediately.

Obviously if you evict people it just puts them on a housing list, it would attract new investors and reduce mortgage costs

Sleeper12 · 23-05-2021 6:21pm

schmittel wrote:

Well worth reading the article for a different take on the questions.

It's nonsense really though.

[Deleted User] · 23-05-2021 6:29pm

schmittel wrote: »

Which is?

At 0.3% of transactions this would indicate that first time buyers market is dead, if true. Meaning there is a crisis for first time buyers.

Probably nonsense though.

B2021M · 23-05-2021 6:33pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

At 0.03% of transactions would indicate that first time buyers market is dead, if true. Meaning there is a crisis for first time buyers.

Probably nonsense though.

Well the OP figure was 0.3% but can it be verified?

Less than 1 in 300?!

Jinglejangle69 · 23-05-2021 6:37pm

Behind a paywall but would love to read about the housing crisis myth.

Something I have been saying for years.

Varik · 23-05-2021 6:50pm

Pop the URL into one of the archive sites, and someone always has it backed up.

Would post it but some mods are touchy about it.

[Deleted User] · 23-05-2021 7:14pm

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Behind a paywall but would love to read about the housing crisis myth.

Something I have been saying for years.

Avocado eating millennials am I right?

[Deleted User] · 23-05-2021 7:16pm

Also the 200,000 vacant buildings, if true, doesn’t solve the crisis either if most of them are outside cities. Which I expect.

Ubbquittious · 23-05-2021 7:19pm

Dereliction is a big problem

Every village near me has houses that are boarded up and unused, then you have holiday houses that some fella uses a couple of weeks in August

I reckon if every empty house and every ruin was done up there would be no housing problem anymore. No need to build any new ghost estates

This will probably be the last time there's a housing crisis. The world population is set to start falling shortly so that will eventually stem the flow of immigrants. By 2050 there will probably absolutely loads of empty houses, perhaps whole empty streets in the cities

eringobragh · 23-05-2021 7:24pm

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Behind a paywall but would love to read about the housing crisis myth.

Something I have been saying for years.

Just use one of the disposable email address providers and you get 3 free articles :cool:

[Deleted User] · 23-05-2021 7:35pm

Ubbquittious wrote: »

Dereliction is a big problem

Every village near me has houses that are boarded up and unused, then you have holiday houses that some fella uses a couple of weeks in August

I reckon if every empty house and every ruin was done up there would be no housing problem anymore. No need to build any new ghost estates

This will probably be the last time there's a housing crisis. The world population is set to start falling shortly so that will eventually stem the flow of immigrants. By 2050 there will probably absolutely loads of empty houses, perhaps whole empty streets in the cities

Africa is still growing.

How does fixing a derelict building in termifeckin solve a crisis in Dublin?

domrush · 23-05-2021 7:37pm

schmittel wrote: »

Which is?

If you think that 0.3% of residential houses being sold to first time buyers is not an issue then I don’t know where to start...

First time buyers and prospective first time buyers are the people most effected by the housing crisis. Think about it ffs

Ubbquittious · 23-05-2021 7:38pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Africa is still growing.

How does fixing a derelict building in termifeckin solve a crisis in Dublin?

Get people to move to termonfeckin. Dublin has been 'feckin' mad for years

notAMember · 23-05-2021 7:47pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Also the 200,000 vacant buildings, if true, doesn’t solve the crisis either if most of them are outside cities. Which I expect.

I don’t know about that…

Fair deal is one cause of these, 20k homes that cannot be rented out, sometimes for decades, because the govt has a stake in them in return for nursing home care. Most of those are urban.

Flats above shops are another set. Impossible to renovate and let out in a lot of cases. The regs are designed to prevent development.

hgfj · 23-05-2021 7:54pm

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

The article is behind a pay wall for me

https://outline.com

Works for most sites - but not all.

[Deleted User] · 23-05-2021 7:55pm

Ubbquittious wrote: »

Get people to move to termonfeckin. Dublin has been 'feckin' mad for years

How do you do that? Remote working might help but it’s not guaranteed. The movement in all countries is to urbanisation.

hometruths · 23-05-2021 8:00pm

domrush wrote: »

If you think that 0.3% of residential houses being sold to first time buyers is not an issue then I don’t know where to start...

First time buyers and prospective first time buyers are the people most effected by the housing crisis. Think about it ffs

Fair enough my bad, massive flaw in OP which is my fault for summarising in haste, and I've now corrected.

His thoughts on FTBs in more detail:

There are about two million houses and apartments in Ireland. Out of about 24,000 annual house purchases, only around 6000 are first time buyers.
This means that national policy is driven by the needs of one third of one percent of all homeowners, and one quarter of annual sales

Of course FTBs are most affected by supply shortages and affordability issues, but I agree with the point that we cannot let the tail wag the dog.

We need to be focussing on getting turnover in the entire market moving - trader uppers, downsizers, relocators etc rather than just pursuing a policy of building what FTBs want.

lawred2 · 23-05-2021 8:01pm

schmittel wrote: »

A provocative article in todays Indo by Conor Skehan - Let’s demolish the four great myths of housing

His myths are:

The First Time Buyer - he reckons too much attention paid to the needs of this cohort given that they represent approx 0.3% of all homeowners and 25% of annual sales
Generation Rent - "a myth making trope that is used to persuade people that they are victims"
Dead Money - "the equivalent of saying that food money is a waste because you'll be hungry again tomorrow - so buy a cow, chicken or or an orchard instead"
The Housing Crisis - the greatest myth of all. Vested interests "continually trying to convince the population that they are housing victims."

One of his arguments against the crisis is that we already have supply, and that new builds are not the solution:

I don't agree with everything he says, but I think he has some valid points - the supply crisis is not as bad as we are led to believe, and there are other solutions available than new builds.

I wholeheartedly agree that of all the measures to tackle housing, myth busting is the most important.

Well worth reading the article for a different take on the questions.

Where are those 200k vacant properties?

the_syco · 23-05-2021 8:03pm

We have more than 200,000 vacant homes across Ireland. When we encourage or allow the Government to support new build housing instead of refurbishing, then we are choosing to move away from availability and affordability.

How many are near Dublin, or nearby a town that has non-retail jobs? By non-retail, I mean not the local shop.
And the ones that are in Dublin, how many are in nice places that you'd want to live?
When not the above two, how many are affordable?
And finally, how many are held by the HSE to fund the owners end of life facilities?

hometruths · 23-05-2021 8:03pm

fvp4 wrote: »

Also the 200,000 vacant buildings, if true, doesn’t solve the crisis either if most of them are outside cities. Which I expect.

Huge amounts of vacancies in Greater Dublin. Dublin and commuter counties are the only locations where vacancy rates are rising.

The great myths of housing

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