The great myths of housing

Brian?

mrslancaster wrote: »

Eindhoven is 130km from Amsterdam & about the same distance from the hague. Are you seriously saying it you went 130km outside dublin you wouldn't find cheaper properties?

That’s quite he logical fallacy you’re building. Proximity to the capital city isn’t as big a factor in property prices as it is in most countries as it is in Ireland. Which is just another symptom of the systemic issues in Ireland.

Brian?

Ace2007 wrote: »

I chose London because large amounts of Irish move there and live. How many move to the Netherlands to live?

Quite a lot actually. I work in a very multicultural company and the 2nd most common nationality is Irish. After Dutch.

Where are these developments going to be built in south city center region?
The issues at hand here isn't living closer to where you work, it's owning a house close to where you live. Very different.

The side that believe they have this right to live anywhere - be in Tallaght or Howth, have yet to give a reasonable way of doing it - other than blame the government. The land isn't available to build houses in the areas that people are looking for.

I gave a list of ways a couple of pages back

Brian?

Brian? wrote: »

That’s quite he logical fallacy you’re building. Proximity to the capital city isn’t as big a factor in property prices as it is in most countries as it is in Ireland. Which is just another symptom of the systemic issues in Ireland.

Eindhoven is the equivalent to where in Ireland though? Limerick or Waterford? You'd easily afford a good house in either city on your wages.

Brian?

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Nobody has ever argued the right to live in Howth, or “everywhere”. Just a reasonable house in the city they work in. On the other hand the other side are suggesting Meath.

A butcher in Howth should reasonably be able to afford a house in Bayside or Baldoyle.

ec18

timmyntc wrote: »

Theres a huge difference between buying in Kilmainham and buying in Meath.
Someone on average salary or higher should absolutely have some expectation of buying a house or apartment in Dublin. People earning below that amount should qualify for cost-rental or social housing, and people with no employment should get housed in less desirable/central areas - but thats a whole other discussion.

You can't seriously expect every household earning less than 100k to have to move to Kildare or Meath?

People have to do what they have to do. A couple on the median income in Dublin can afford to but a house or apartment in Dublin. the median in Dublin is €47,000, which gives a couple a mortgage of €329,000 add in at least another 10% for a deposit or HTB that's a purchase price of €361,000. Houses are available at that price in Dublin. The buyers just mightn't like where they are

Brian?

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Eindhoven is the equivalent to where in Ireland though? Limerick or Waterford? You'd easily afford a good house in either city on your wages.

No it isn’t. There isn’t an equivalent. In size yeas but not in GDP. Eindhoven is home to the 2 most valuable companies in he Netherlands; Philips and ASML.

Amsterdam is about same size as Dublin, Eindhoven is twice the size of Cork. It’s impossible to draw comparisons except for earnings v buying power.

Admittedly I’d have more trouble buying in Amsterdam, but my mortgage would still be 100% at 1.2 or 1.3 %

Brian?

Brian? wrote: »

No it isn’t. There isn’t an equivalent. In size yeas but not in GDP. Eindhoven is home to the 2 most valuable companies in he Netherlands; Philips and ASML.

Amsterdam is about same size as Dublin, Eindhoven is twice the size of Cork. It’s impossible to draw comparisons except for earnings v buying power.

Admittedly I’d have more trouble buying in Amsterdam, but my mortgage would still be 100% at 1.2 or 1.3 %

I'm not comparing the cities like for like though, if you had your wages in Limerick you'd easily afford something. I'd be fairly certain there's people on your wages in Limerick and Waterford too, even if your specific job doesn't exist.

timmyntc

Deleted User wrote: »

Eindhoven is the equivalent to where in Ireland though? Limerick or Waterford? You'd easily afford a good house in either city on your wages.

What is with this craic of X in one country is the equivalent of Y in another.

It doesnt work like that.
Eindhoven has a higher average income than Dublin, is a big tech powerhouse of a city. It is in no way comparable to Limerick or Waterford. It's also smaller area wise than Dublin which would also push up prices you would think.

It has as much merit as comparing Dublin with London, Paris, Sydney or New York (i.e. no merit). They are worlds apart.

timmyntc

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm not comparing the cities like for like though, if you had your wages in Limerick you'd easily afford something. I'd be fairly certain there's people on your wages in Limerick and Waterford too, even if your specific job doesn't exist.

And if I made a million quid in Manhattan I still might struggle, but a million quid in Galway and I could buy almost anything.

Apples and oranges comparison. Eindhoven is no Limerick and definitely not the economic blackhole that is Waterford

The Student

Brian? wrote: »

.

Yes, they should. Mixed cost developments work exceptionally well. It means people can live close to where they work. Including people at the lower end working in the service industry.

Do you think it's sustainable for a barber or a butcher to have to commute an hour to work in a more affluent area? I don't.

We are a million miles from that though. I earn 3-4 times the average wage and I'm excluded. What chance does a supervalu worked have?

Mixed costs developments don't work (certainly not in Ireland). We have a particular culture that's not like other countries so to compare us to others is not relevant.

Dublin is not that big but everybody wants to drive to work. How many cars on the road during rush hour have a single occupant in them. I seen it everyday when I was going to work pre pandemic from public transport.

if you earn 3 to 4 times the average wage and you are excluded then you are either looking for the most expensive areas to live in or there is some other issue.

There are plenty of properties available in Dublin that you could afford if your wage is as high as you indicate.

timmyntc

timmyntc wrote: »

And if I made a million quid in Manhattan I still might struggle, but a million quid in Galway and I could buy almost anything.

Apples and oranges comparison. Eindhoven is no Limerick and definitely not the economic blackhole that is Waterford

Is Manhattan the Galway of America? And tbf, a million quid salary in Manhattan would still get you something...

Cuddlesworth

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Can you imagine if every local politician gets involved in the automotive industry the way they are involved in development. :pac:


"Yes I understand the transport crisis but this company should not produce vans because they are entirely unsuitable for family motoring"

"There is a transport crisis that we all recognise but no one should be building articulated trucks. Look at the size of them. They are too expensive, too big for local roads, ruin the views and you will never ever fill them."

"This company wants to provide a large amount of rental cars in my local area, however right now most cars in the area are privately owned. We do not believe that these rental cars will be suitable for the local community"

"You should not be allowed park your brand new Tesla in our local area since it will spoil the historic views from my three wheeled Reliant Robin"

"I feel that 2 door and 1 litre cars should be banned. We need to be raising standards and ordinary people should allways have a 4 door car and at least a 2.5 litre engine."

This has got to be the worst analogy I've ever seen on boards. The automotive market is dictated by regulation and taxation, which is lead by politics. Which is why America is so different to the type and profile of cars/trucks then to Europe, as a very obvious example.

Mad_maxx

Wanderer78 wrote: »

once again, the ignorance prevails! gentrification, an interesting subject matter, particularly in relation to property and land!

all i want for my birthday is for Wanderer to cease injecting left wing ideology into every post for one day ( one hour even )

timmyntc

Deleted User wrote: »

Is Manhattan the Galway of America? And tbf, a million quid salary in Manhattan would still get you something...

There is no manhattan equivalent in Ireland is the point I was making.
Dublin should be compared with other places based on area and average income, as those two things should gives us an idea of demand for land and income competing for housing. Those are the metrics you compare, not some weird analogy of X is the Sligo of Denmark, or Y is the Cork city of Italy.

Wanderer78

Mad_maxx wrote: »

all i want for my birthday is for Wanderer to cease injecting left wing ideology into every post for one day ( one hour even )

so you d like me to all of a sudden change my political orientation, to what exactly, the narrative maybe?

timmyntc

timmyntc wrote: »

There is no manhattan equivalent in Ireland is the point I was making.
Dublin should be compared with other places based on area and average income, as those two things should gives us an idea of demand for land and income competing for housing. Those are the metrics you compare, not some weird analogy of X is the Sligo of Denmark, or Y is the Cork city of Italy.

Take it up with the lad living the good life in Eindhoven, Timmy. He's the one who brought in the comparison initially. I, in a sense, agree with you, he's incorrect to compare his situation in Eindhoven with what it might be in Dublin.

Brian?

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm not comparing the cities like for like though, if you had your wages in Limerick you'd easily afford something. I'd be fairly certain there's people on your wages in Limerick and Waterford too, even if your specific job doesn't exist.

What's the relevance of the comparison then?

Brian?

The Student wrote: »

Mixed costs developments don't work (certainly not in Ireland). We have a particular culture that's not like other countries so to compare us to others is not relevant.

.

Boom. There's the answer. This culture needs to change.

ec18

ec18 wrote: »

That's the point for your statement to be true both the above have to be. For example I'm a secretary for an accountant who's office is in Kilmainham therefore I should be able to buy a house in that area.

See how both things can't be true? Just because you work in an area or are from an area doesn't mean that you have a right/entitlement/option to buy a house there.

What are you taking about. This isn’t an answer to me saying that people are not looking to live anywhere in Dublin. However an average worker should be able to buy a median priced house in the city he works in.

The City. Not an expensive place in the city. The City. Not Meath. Not Dalkey. Not Rathmullen, either.

Mad_maxx

Mad_maxx wrote: »

all i want for my birthday is for Wanderer to cease injecting left wing ideology into every post for one day ( one hour even )

This is a political/economic thread. Sure if he does it in a thread on the Eurovision feel free to complain.

Mad_maxx

Wanderer78 wrote: »

so you d like me to all of a sudden change my political orientation, to what exactly, the narrative maybe?

every post you make ( regardless of the thread topic ) is peppered with left wing ideology and borderline existential thinking

Ace2007

fvp4 wrote: »

The City. Not an expensive place in the city. The City. Not Meath. Not Dalkey. Not Rathmullen, either.

What's the border line of the city? Is that D1/D2 or are you going to expand the city to meet your argument?

Mad_maxx

fvp4 wrote: »

This is a political/economic thread. Sure if he does it in a thread on the Eurovision feel free to complain.

its neither a political or economic thread , its about housing myths and is in the accommodation and property section

timmyntc

Deleted User wrote: »

Take it up with the lad living the good life in Eindhoven, Timmy. He's the one who brought in the comparison initially. I, in a sense, agree with you, he's incorrect to compare his situation in Eindhoven with what it might be in Dublin.

Yes but Eindhoven has a higher average income and smaller land area than Dublin. So you would think Eindhoven would have worse affordability issues than Dublin - but the opposite is true.

Cyrus

Brian? wrote: »

Admittedly I’d have more trouble buying in Amsterdam, but my mortgage would still be 100% at 1.2 or 1.3 %

thats a further distortion to any comparison you are making to here,

the average mortgage rate here will be double what you are paying and most likely at 80% leverage v 100%.

The Student

Brian? wrote: »

Boom. There's the answer. This culture needs to change.

Do you honestly think the culture will change? The posts on this forum should show you that the culture will not change if there are no consequences.

How many repossessions have happened? How many evictions have happened? How many social tenants are in rent arrears?

If any of the above issues are raised in the public arena by a public official it is career suicide.

whether you accept it or not we have some who are just take all the time and don't give back and we have those who give more than others and don't get much back. I am not talking just financial either. There are others ways to contribute other than financial but some don't give back.

Your vision is an idealist one which will never happen.

Cyrus

timmyntc wrote: »

Yes but Eindhoven has a higher average income and smaller land area than Dublin. So you would think Eindhoven would have worse affordability issues than Dublin - but the opposite is true.

being able to borrow 100% of the property price at 1.2% is at least part of that particular equation.

Brian?

Brian? wrote: »

What's the relevance of the comparison then?

I don't think there was any relevance to your comparison between what you can afford in one Dutch city vs what you can afford in Dublin but you seem to think there is?

Imo, your wages would get you something decent elsewhere in Ireland.

Ace2007

Ace2007 wrote: »

What's the border line of the city? Is that D1/D2 or are you going to expand the city to meet your argument?

Are we arguing the dimensions of the city here? Is that where you are now.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't think there was any relevance to your comparison between what you can afford in one Dutch city vs what you can afford in Dublin but you seem to think there is?

Imo, your wages would get you something decent elsewhere in Ireland.

So what if he can’t earn those wages elsewhere?

Brian?

Mad_maxx wrote: »

every post you make ( regardless of the thread topic ) is peppered with left wing ideology and borderline existential thinking

It's called having an opinion.

Brian?

Cyrus wrote: »

thats a further distortion to any comparison you are making to here,

the average mortgage rate here will be double what you are paying and most likely at 80% leverage v 100%.

I know. I listed this as a problem originally.

fvp4

fvp4 wrote: »

So what if he can’t earn those wages elsewhere?

His wages are good, but hardly extraordinarily good. Plenty of jobs that pay 90k in any Irish city (No offence to the poster in question).

Cyrus

Cyrus wrote: »

being able to borrow 100% of the property price at 1.2% is at least part of that particular equation.

If that was introduced in Ireland house prices would rocket and affordability would remain the same. It’s supply vs demand that matters.

Cyrus

Brian? wrote: »

I know. I listed this as a problem originally.

im not sure anyone is calling for the return of 100% mortgages in ireland though.

it didnt go very well the las time :pac:

Cyrus

fvp4 wrote: »

If that was introduced in Ireland house prices would rocket and affordability would remain the same. It’s supply vs demand that matters.

i agree.

which is why the calls to change the CB rules baffle me, as if that will improve things.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

His wages are good, but hardly extraordinarily good. Plenty of jobs that pay 90k in any Irish city (No offence to the poster in question).

They would be fairly rare in many cities. That said we are talking about median household income vs house prices.

If the solution is to “live in a different city” then this is clearly an admission that the city he can’t live in is overpriced.

Brian?

The Student wrote: »

Do you honestly think the culture will change? The posts on this forum should show you that the culture will not change if there are no consequences.

How many repossessions have happened? How many evictions have happened? How many social tenants are in rent arrears?

If any of the above issues are raised in the public arena by a public official it is career suicide.

whether you accept it or not we have some who are just take all the time and don't give back and we have those who give more than others and don't get much back. I am not talking just financial either. There are others ways to contribute other than financial but some don't give back.

Your vision is an idealist one which will never happen.

Culture changes all of the time. There is nothing idealist about wanting Ireland to follow continental Europe. It's injecting real solutions into the conversation instead of ideas like "culture".

I'm suggesting very real changes that can be made. Not aspirations.

Brian?

Cyrus wrote: »

being able to borrow 100% of the property price at 1.2% is at least part of that particular equation.

Shouldn't the prices be higher as I can afford more? Or are the prices actually controlled by proper regulation of the market?

Brian?

[Deleted User] wrote: »

His wages are good, but hardly extraordinarily good. Plenty of jobs that pay 90k in any Irish city (No offence to the poster in question).

I would earn more for the equivalent job in Ireland, I did in the past. But I would have less spending power. Which is the core of my point.

Brian?

Cyrus wrote: »

im not sure anyone is calling for the return of 100% mortgages in ireland though.

it didnt go very well the las time :pac:

Due to poor regulation. It works with better regulation.

Brian?

Cyrus wrote: »

i agree.

which is why the calls to change the CB rules baffle me, as if that will improve things.

In isolation it'll make things worse. Which was why I wrote a whole list of ideas....

hometruths

Brian? wrote: »

Boom. There's the answer. This culture needs to change.

Indeed, and that's exactly the point the article in the OP is making:

If we can free our minds to think differently about housing, then we can be our own saviours.

Cyrus

Brian? wrote: »

Shouldn't the prices be higher as I can afford more? Or are the prices actually controlled by proper regulation of the market?

i dont know im not familiar with the market in eindhoven, from what you say it certainly sounds better.

although maybe not as regulated as you suggest? Doesnt seem far off average dublin prices?

https://eindhovennews.com/news/2020/01/eindhoven-house-prices-soar/

https://eindhovennews.com/news/2021/01/another-sharp-rise-in-house-prices-in-the-eindhoven-region/

All sounds remarkably familiar....

An important reason for the tense housing market is the lack of supply. According to the Eindhoven broker Pieter van Santvoort, the supply in the region has reached a historic low in the past 20 years. “This is unprecedented. The corona crisis has not had any negative effect on the number of sales. On the contrary, the temperature on the market has only increased due to the tight supply. It is a great pity that this overheating puts so many people especially starters, offside. ”


“It is getting monotonous, but the only solution is new constructions on a large scale soon. The need is enormous and the backlog is great. There is mainly a shortage of affordable owner-occupied homes,” says Van Santvoort.

Brian?

Brian? wrote: »

Due to poor regulation. It works with better regulation.

Do you not think that 100% mortgages would push prices further up?

Wanderer78

Dav010 wrote: »

Do you not think that 100% mortgages would push prices further up?

...of course, we have learned from our previous credit fueled boom bust cycle, this is exactly what occurs, when more money is introduced

Brian?

Cyrus wrote: »

i dont know im not familiar with the market in eindhoven, from what you say it certainly sounds better.

although maybe not as regulated as you suggest? Doesnt seem far off average dublin prices?

https://eindhovennews.com/news/2020/01/eindhoven-house-prices-soar/

https://eindhovennews.com/news/2021/01/another-sharp-rise-in-house-prices-in-the-eindhoven-region/

All sounds remarkably familiar....

It’s a panic because it’s so unusual. It’s being addressed with a lot of development

Eindhoven news is an awful source by the way.

timmyntc

Dav010 wrote: »

Do you not think that 100% mortgages would push prices further up?

It would here in Ireland. I presume there are other factors at play in NL to stop prices rising uncontrollably. Or maybe just enough supply that its a buyers market?

Thats the problem with housing as a market - if theres a drop in supply and prices start to rise, people still *need* housing. So the demand doesnt go away as prices rise. So throw 100% mortgages into the mix and you have runaway prices.

People getting "priced out" of the market is markets behaving correctly in a period of short supply, which doesnt happen with 100% mortgages. But you could also say that we should aim not to price anyone out of the market, because housing is not just an asset but you know, a house. Somewhere to live - a fundamental need.
That would take a fundamental change in how we treat housing - less of an investment and more of a basic human need.

Cyrus

Brian? wrote: »

It’s a panic because it’s so unusual. It’s being addressed with a lot of development

Eindhoven news is an awful source by the way.

are the average prices quoted incorrect?

Brian?

Dav010 wrote: »

Do you not think that 100% mortgages would push prices further up?

If done in isolation. YES! I’ve said so a few times.

If the property and banking sectors are regulated properly fist then no. It’s the last step I’d take in Ireland right now

Punish vacant properties, increase supply, increase mixed cost development, increase social housing, control development land first.