Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings

13-05-2021 11:18PM

It really isn't. But anyway, good luck with your next thousand or so posts.

13-05-2021 11:22PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Do you post this on every thread or is it just this one?

Feel free to look at my post history. You might get some ideas about some good TV or films to watch.

Penfailed · 13-05-2021 11:24PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I know it’s an embarrassingly crazy stat

More than I've managed in 11 years...! :eek:

13-05-2021 11:26PM

https://twitter.com/wereontheditch/status/1392933334020497412?s=19

FintanMcluskey · 13-05-2021 11:28PM

Penfailed wrote: »

More than I've managed in 11 years...! :eek:

Jeasus

11 years

And not one post that makes sense

hynesie08 · 13-05-2021 11:34PM

rusty cole wrote: »

https://twitter.com/wereontheditch/status/1392933334020497412?s=19

A video that could be anytime and a receipt from a pub doing takeaway pints..... I'll grab my pitchfork.

Captain_Crash · 13-05-2021 11:54PM

rusty cole wrote: »

https://twitter.com/wereontheditch/status/1392933334020497412?s=19

Stephen Donnelly on the right?!?

Penfailed · 13-05-2021 11:55PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Jeasus

11 years

And not one post that makes sense

Ah, but you haven't read all 5,000 plus to know for sure.

PTH2009 · 14-05-2021 12:42AM

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57102392

A potential worry in terms of the UK reopenings in June and which could impact us in the ROI down the line

The final June reopening in England is the big one on the road to normality

charlie14 · 14-05-2021 01:23AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

I understand your interpretation is different to mine...but I'm more inclined to accept the advice of reputable scientists given the success that is evident in the States I have mentioned, and there are many more...this was also the accepted science for dealing with a pandemic until very recently.

Anybody, be it is State Governor or a leading expert or a European Government who deviates from hard lock downs gets vilified...the only way out of this is a mass vaccination program...with vaccines that didn't exist before we were all put into lock down.

You might consider John Ioannidis some kind of unethical grifter but he is one of the leading experts on epidemiology on the planet.

It's amazing the voices we aren't allowed to hear....

You can listen to all the voices you like but I have yet to see any evidence of the science where natural herd immunity has worked..... or even came close.

I`m not sure that Florida is a great example on it either. Unless the data I have seen is incorrect.
Florida has 4 times the population of Ireland and up until 2 days ago has had 35,946 deaths, with a daily average over the last 14 days of 62 deaths. Not the worlds worst, but even at that you cannot put it down to natural immunity alone as they have a higher percentage vaccinated then we do, a climate we are told that ensures lower spread, and they also used lockdown and various other restriction.

Just because someone is a leading expert on epidemiology doesn`t necessarily mean he isn`t some kind of unethical grifter.

Johan Giesecke Sweden`s former state epidemiologist, former chief scientist of the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, presently Vice Chair of the World Health Organisation`s Strategic and Technical Advisory Group on Infectious Hazards and as such advisor to the WHO Director-General on pandemic response, was also the mastermind behind Sweden`s herd immunity strategy.
March 3rd 2020 in an email obtained under freedom of information.
" I believe the virus is going to sweep like a storm over Sweden and infect basically everyone in one or two months. I believe that thousands are already infected in Sweden........ it will come to an end when so many have been infected and therefore immune that the virus has nowhere to go (so called herd immunity)"

Personally I have found it best to be very wary of those who have all the easy answers.

ingo1984 · 14-05-2021 06:26AM

PTH2009 wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57102392

A potential worry in terms of the UK reopenings in June and which could impact us in the ROI down the line

The final June reopening in England is the big one on the road to normality

Nah, we put all our eggs in the basket of locking down the country, economy, rolling out the pup and business supports until the vaccines enabled us to reopen for good. Don't have the money for more prolonged lockdowns.

Sobit1964 · 14-05-2021 07:16AM

Really good thread and notes on the study.

https://twitter.com/commieleejones/status/1391754136031477760

"Indeed, anti-maskers often reveal themselves to be more sophisticated in their understanding of how scientific knowledge is socially constructed than their ideological adversaries, who espouse naïve realism about the “objective” truth of public health data."

"For these anti-mask users, their approach to the pandemic is grounded in more scientific rigor, not less."

"These individuals as a whole are extremely willing to help others who have trouble interpreting graphs with multiple forms of clarification: by helping people find the original sources so that they can replicate the analysis themselves, by referencing other reputable studies...

"While these groups highly value scientific expertise, they also see collective analysis of data as a way to bring communities together within a time of crisis, and being able to transparently and dispassionately analyze the data is crucial for democratic governance."

"In fact, the explicit motivation for many of these followers is to find information so that they can make the best decisions for their families—and by extension, for the communities around them."

I expect someone will quickly follow up with - 'its not that difficult / this is remedial' - and then some link to 'deboonk' and show how everyone who questions anything in the time of a pandemic is a racist trump supporter who lives in a caravan and wears a vest and red cap.

hynesie08 · 14-05-2021 07:50AM

PTH2009 wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57102392

A potential worry in terms of the UK reopenings in June and which could impact us in the ROI down the line

The final June reopening in England is the big one on the road to normality

But he added there was no evidence to suggest England's planned lockdown easing could not go ahead.

If you read more than the headline, you'd be a lot less anxious.

14-05-2021 07:55AM

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Really good thread and notes on the study.

https://twitter.com/commieleejones/status/1391754136031477760

I expect someone will quickly follow up with - 'its not that difficult / this is remedial' - and then some link to 'deboonk' and show how everyone who questions anything in the time of a pandemic is a racist trump supporter who lives in a caravan and wears a vest and red cap.

Did you read the paper or the twitter thread talking about the paper?

ABSTRACT
Controversial understandings of the coronavirus pandemic have
turned data visualizations into a battleground. Defying public health
officials, coronavirus skeptics on US social media spent much of
2020 creating data visualizations showing that the government’s
pandemic response was excessive and that the crisis was over. This
paper investigates how pandemic visualizations circulated on social
media, and shows that people who mistrust the scientific establishment often deploy the same rhetorics of data-driven decisionmaking used by experts, but to advocate for radical policy changes.
Using a quantitative analysis of how visualizations spread on Twitter and an ethnographic approach to analyzing conversations about
COVID data on Facebook, we document an epistemological gap
that leads pro- and anti-mask groups to draw drastically different
inferences from similar data. Ultimately, we argue that the deployment of COVID data visualizations reflect a deeper sociopolitical
rift regarding the place of science in public life

It made no judgement on the quality of the argument just the methods employed. The bolded is the key part of the whole document. You would not draw the conclusion that an group of amateur rugby players could beat the all blacks by employing the same training methods

14-05-2021 07:56AM

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Really good thread and notes on the study.

https://twitter.com/commieleejones/status/1391754136031477760

I expect someone will quickly follow up with - 'its not that difficult / this is remedial' - and then some link to 'deboonk' and show how everyone who questions anything in the time of a pandemic is a racist trump supporter who lives in a caravan and wears a vest and red cap.

Did you read the paper or the twitter thread talking about the paper?

ABSTRACT
Controversial understandings of the coronavirus pandemic have
turned data visualizations into a battleground. Defying public health
officials, coronavirus skeptics on US social media spent much of
2020 creating data visualizations showing that the government’s
pandemic response was excessive and that the crisis was over. This
paper investigates how pandemic visualizations circulated on social
media, and shows that people who mistrust the scientific establishment often deploy the same rhetorics of data-driven decisionmaking used by experts, but to advocate for radical policy changes.
Using a quantitative analysis of how visualizations spread on Twitter and an ethnographic approach to analyzing conversations about
COVID data on Facebook, we document an epistemological gap
that leads pro- and anti-mask groups to draw drastically different
inferences from similar data. Ultimately, we argue that the deployment of COVID data visualizations reflect a deeper sociopolitical
rift regarding the place of science in public life

It made no judgement on the quality of the argument just the methods employed. The bolded is the key part of the whole document. You would not draw the conclusion that a group of amateur rugby players could beat the all blacks by employing the same training methods

Sobit1964 · 14-05-2021 08:15AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Did you read the paper or the twitter thread talking about the paper?

It made no judgement on the quality of the argument just the methods employed. The bolded is the key part of the whole document. You would not draw the conclusion that an group of amateur rugby players could beat the all blacks by employing the same training methods

Kind of like that mostly true story in the film 'Moneyball'.

I like that the internet has opened the door to crowd research that matches the more stuffy slow moving traditional format. Outfits like Bellingcat outdoing intel agencies etc - its fantastic to see.

My comments and sharing of the study were less about the quality of the argument, and more about the quality of the dismissal of that argument with lazy pejoratives being used to shut down any discussion thats not in lockstep with the 'party' line.

gozunda · 14-05-2021 08:18AM

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Really good thread and notes on the study.

https://twitter.com/commieleejones/status/1391754136031477760

I expect someone will quickly follow up with - 'its not that difficult / this is remedial' - and then some link to 'deboonk' and show how everyone who questions anything in the time of a pandemic is a racist trump supporter who lives in a caravan and wears a vest and red cap.

*Tweeter of above - Mr Commie Lee Jones

I dunno about any of that that. Though he seems to be an anti vaxer ...

Sobit1964 · 14-05-2021 08:20AM

gozunda wrote: »

I dunno about any of that that. Though he seems to be an anti vaxer ...

MIT is an antivaxer?

Thanks for proving the point I was making - as always you are very reliable.

Silentcorner · 14-05-2021 08:27AM

charlie14 wrote: »

Just because someone is a leading expert on epidemiology doesn`t necessarily mean he isn`t some kind of unethical grifter.

Just so people know, he is referring to John Ioannidis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Ioannidis

Essentially, your position is that anybody who doesn't advocate hard lock downs is probably a grifter.

Bear in mind there is a world of difference between hard lock downs and a proportionate response imposing as few restrictions on society as is possible.

gozunda · 14-05-2021 08:34AM

Sobit1964 wrote: »

MIT is an antivaxer?

Thanks for proving the point I was making - as always you are very reliable.

When is MIT a "he"?

I was referring to the tweeter Mr Commie Lee Jones - who you linked.

And as always no need to make **** personal- its a discussion...

14-05-2021 08:35AM

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Kind of like that mostly true story in the film 'Moneyball'.

I like that the internet has opened the door to crowd research that matches the more stuffy slow moving traditional format. Outfits like Bellingcat outdoing intel agencies etc - its fantastic to see.

My comments and sharing of the study were less about the quality of the argument, and more about the quality of the dismissal of that argument with lazy pejoratives being used to shut down any discussion thats not in lockstep with the 'party' line.

In fairness, the vast majority of arguments here are not anything like those being discussed in the paper. What the paper only touches on however is the selective interpretation of data. In its attempt to be neutral nearly let that lie completely

Similarly, these groups’ impulse to mitigate bias and increase
transparency (often by dropping the use of data they see as “biased”)

gozunda · 14-05-2021 08:43AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Just so people know, he is referring to John Ioannidis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Ioannidis

Essentially, your position is that anybody who doesn't advocate hard lock downs is probably a grifter.

Bear in mind there is a world of difference between hard lock downs and a proportionate response imposing as few restrictions on society as is possible.

In March 2020 he came up with this cracker ..

From your Wiki link

He estimated that the coronavirus could cause 10,000 U.S. deaths if it infected 1% of the U.S. population...

The current death toll for the U.S. is 598,540 and counting and it has infected just under 10% of the U.S population

Silentcorner · 14-05-2021 08:54AM

gozunda wrote: »

In March 2020 he came up with this cracker ..

From your Wiki link

The current death toll for the US is 598,540 and counting ...

He was predicting a fatality rate of 0.1% for Covid, that is the language the experts speak in,

The fatality rate is about 0.15 according to him.

I presume you understand that Wikipedia can't be relied upon beyond providing broad strokes on anything.

Boggles · 14-05-2021 08:56AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Just so people know, he is referring to John Ioannidis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Ioannidis

Essentially, your position is that anybody who doesn't advocate hard lock downs is probably a grifter.

Bear in mind there is a world of difference between hard lock downs and a proportionate response imposing as few restrictions on society as is possible.

Seems to be quite the commercial grifter.

You should always vet your heroes.

Boggles · 14-05-2021 08:57AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

I presume you understand that Wikipedia can't be relied upon beyond providing brad strokes on anything.

It was you who linked to wikipedia. :pac:

14-05-2021 08:59AM

Boggles wrote: »

Seems to be quite the commercial grifter.

You should always vet your heroes.

I think in this instance Ionnidas may just be wrong. 95% of epidemiologist agree. I have not seen much grift from him, but stand to be corrected

gozunda · 14-05-2021 09:04AM

Silentcorner wrote: »

He was predicting a fatality rate of 0.1% for Covid, that is the language the experts speak in,

The fatality rate is about 0.15 according to him.

I presume you understand that Wikipedia can't be relied upon beyond providing brad strokes on anything.

Lol. It was you who provided the wiki link. But do shoot the messenger...

"The Language the experts speak in"?? :pac: Thanks I know what the fatality rate is.

Of interest the current infection fatality rate for the U.S. is 1.8

The direct quote from the relevant article is as follows

If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “influenza-like illness.”

As for his calculations on the Mortality Rate.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Boggles · 14-05-2021 09:06AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I think in this instance Ionnidas may just be wrong. 95% of epidemiologist agree. I have not seen much grift from him, but stand to be corrected

I'm not so sure Raind, for someone to humiliate themselves and tarnish their reputations, they are not going to do that for free.

Some dodgy money behind the whole thing.

I imagine the truth may come out in the future.

Silentcorner · 14-05-2021 09:07AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I think in this instance Ionnidas may just be wrong. 95% of epidemiologist agree. I have not seen much grift from him, but stand to be corrected

Maybe you are correct, he is just wrong...but he is considered a leading expert in epidemiology.

https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/99/1/20-265892/en/

It's not easy to understand the language in the study, but he does make a his case.

paddyisreal · 14-05-2021 09:09AM

Ransomware attack on HSE , I suppose that will result in another lockdown. The next 24 hours are essential...
Same as the lockdown over the last year all because our health service is ran by incompetent fools

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/1209/1183265-hse-technology/

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI Read OP For Mod Warnings