Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

charlie14

Silentcorner wrote: »

I'm sorry but I have to pull you up on this misrepresentation.

There is a big difference between what was called letting it rip (without restrictions) and what is recommended in the GBD.

I outlined my position as clear as crystal.

We needed restrictions, those restrictions will differ from country to country due to the myriad of factors that determine how the virus spreads and the capability of the health system to cope....

You are the ONLY poster who thought I was evading a question....the ONLY one in a thread where all of us get pinned on what we mean or we say we mean.

You were the one who being consistently evasive.

There was no misrepresentation on my part.
You were in favour of that GBD, with you repeatedly referring to "the science". When asked what this science was you would not answer.

The GBD is a proposed strategy of natural herd immunity on a one fits all basis. There is no science to back it up in relation to Covid-19. The contrary in fact.

Sweden attempted it during the first wave and were predicting immunity by May last year for Stockholm. Their own antibody test results showed they were nowhere close. Even after that their Public Health Authority appear to have attempted continuing with it.
End of November with numbers rising they were denying they were having a second wave claiming that there were high immunity levels (something with their case numbers which is obviously not true) and announced that restrictions on care homes were going to be eased, and that it was now safe for the elderly, the vulnerable to mingle with the rest of society ,and the numbers for public gatherings increased.
Beginning of October, decision making on health matters reverted to the local authorities and they put a stop to the nonsense. Tegnell even having to admit that following the strategy was unethical.

Manaus in Brazil. Researchers published a paper on MedRxiv based on blood samples taken during their first wave that showed 44% of the population had antibodies. On the basis that at least another 20% had antibodies they claimed Manaus had achieved natural immunity level. Three days later, Manaus went back into lockdown due to rising numbers.

India based on nothing other than low infection rates assumed they had reached natural immunity. We know how that has panned out.

There is no "the science" backing naturally acquired herd immunity. It is a dangerous unethical nonsense.

charlie14

gozunda wrote: »

I don't believe there was a comparison of Antigen vs PCR? And I certainly dont know who Ray Walley is...

Heard him on the radio Tuesday morning. He is a Dublin GP and Vice President of the European Doctors Association. Far as I recall he mentioned that last weekend three patients of his from the same household all tested positive for Covid from PCR tests, whereas just one did from Antigen tests.

Silentcorner

charlie14 wrote: »

There is no "the science" backing naturally acquired herd immunity. It is a dangerous unethical nonsense.

There is no science behind the use of lock downs either....these are policies that no Government had previously prepared that I am aware of...

I have never advocated naturally acquired herd immunity, your interpretation of the GBD is obviously different to mine...they advocate for focused protection for vulnerable...

There are people who would be considered the experts, I have mentioned John Ioannidis numerous times as an example....the premier expert in epidemiology worldwide, unless you can show me another, who is an opponent of the use of lock downs...the people who signed the GBD are indeed experts, what they suggest is consistent with what John Ioannidis proposes....the State of Florida has taken an entirely different path to most countries and implemented policies consistent with the recommendations in the GBD....they protected the vulnerable as best they could....the State of Florida is booming, Americans are flocking there in massive numbers.

The Governor has articulated why he took that route, despite being absolutely vilified by US media (which is also consistent with anybody who is critical of lock downs), and credits the policy to the experts in Harvard and Stanford who advised him...that is the science I am referring to! Florida has become the great big elephant in the room on the issue of hard lock downs....Texas has followed, the Governor there was vilified by media and the President also...

Florida also undertook these policies long before a vaccine had been approved.

There is no science behind the actions of Governments...we know for instance that this virus does not transmit in any meaningful way outdoors...that is the science...where is that reflected in Government Policy.

IF you reply to this post, I will ask you politely not to misrepresent me, you have been doing that for a few days and it's not on!

Boggles

ArthurDayne wrote: »

It’s interesting that you mock that for being vague.

I wasn't really mocking you TBF, it was a joke, but I'm glad you agree it was vague.

ArthurDayne wrote: »

Can you tell me the specific metrics the Cabinet is working off in our reopening?

The Department of Health publish NPHETs advice which includes a series of modelling for various scenarios.

Cabinet is first to get it (then it's leaked) and they form their decisions based on that.

NPHETs advice is based on a remit given to them by Government.

The main priorities are Health, Education and Child Care.

If Cabinet told NPHET the remit has been changed to "open the pubs" then NPHET would be obliged to formulate advice around that, I imagine the current remit would slip down the list.

Your rationale for opening the pubs, which would include a lot more than pubs in reality is basically, shure it will be grand.

People tasked with making the decisions quite rightly have to work off a higher bar.

Boggles

Silentcorner wrote: »

There is no science behind the use of lock downs either...

1 It's a virus
2. It needs hosts to replicate
3. Keep hosts away from each other it can't replicate.

#science

Silentcorner

Boggles wrote: »

1 It's a virus
2. It needs hosts to replicate
3. Keep hosts away from each other it can't replicate.

#science

And that is how easy it is to brainwash people into thinking a Government can control a virus.

paddyisreal

Boggles wrote: »

1 It's a virus
2. It needs hosts to replicate
3. Keep hosts away from each other it can't replicate.

#science

1. It's construction
2. It needs builders to construct
2. Have a lockdown and you can't construct

#constructionwasshutdown

Silentcorner

Silentcorner wrote: »

And that is how easy it is to brainwash people into thinking a Government can control a virus.

I am interested in this hypothesis that reducing interactions between people won’t reduce spread of a virus that is transmitted by interaction between people. Where can I donate?

Silentcorner

Deleted User wrote: »

I am interested in this hypothesis that reducing interactions between people won’t reduce spread of a virus that is transmitted by interaction between people. Where can I donate?

Well it was the accepted science until late 2019.

So feel free to donate to whomever you want.

charlie14

Silentcorner wrote: »

There is no science behind the use of lock downs either....these are policies that no Government had previously prepared that I am aware of...

I have never advocated naturally acquired herd immunity, your interpretation of the GBD is obviously different to mine...they advocate for focused protection for vulnerable...

There are people who would be considered the experts, I have mentioned John Ioannidis numerous times as an example....the premier expert in epidemiology worldwide, unless you can show me another, who is an opponent of the use of lock downs...the people who signed the GBD are indeed experts, what they suggest is consistent with what John Ioannidis proposes....the State of Florida has taken an entirely different path to most countries and implemented policies consistent with the recommendations in the GBD....they protected the vulnerable as best they could....the State of Florida is booming, Americans are flocking there in massive numbers.

The Governor has articulated why he took that route, despite being absolutely vilified by US media (which is also consistent with anybody who is critical of lock downs), and credits the policy to the experts in Harvard and Stanford who advised him...that is the science I am referring to! Florida has become the great big elephant in the room on the issue of hard lock downs....Texas has followed, the Governor there was vilified by media and the President also...

Florida also undertook these policies long before a vaccine had been approved.

There is no science behind the actions of Governments...we know for instance that this virus does not transmit in any meaningful way outdoors...that is the science...where is that reflected in Government Policy.

IF you reply to this post, I will ask you politely not to misrepresent me, you have been doing that for a few days and it's not on!

If you wish to keep fooling yourself that the Great Barrington Declaration was anything other than a one fits all proposed strategy for natural herd immunity it`s no skin off my nose.

I have already shown you where with light restrictions it was a complete failure in Sweden where antibody level were even less than for their respective epicentres of infection than Spain who used lockdown, and the architect of the strategy in Sweden had finally to admit it was unethical to even attempt it.

In Manaus based on antibody test results they believed they had reached the required level, where a few days later they were back in lockdown due to rising numbers. In India where they believed due to low case numbers they had also achieved resulting in disastrous consequences.

As far as sciences goes, it is nothing other than a nonsense. As far as I`m concerned it is a dangerous unethical nonsense that was being pushed by some very dodgy factions. Not least of them the American Institute for Economic Research in whose headquarters in Great Barrington this declaration was launched.

normanoffside

Fandymo wrote: »

As opposed to not using them and missing 100% of positive cases??

I don't normally reply to posters I have on Ignore (Gozunda) but since I see this in the quoted tweet, here is the EC study

https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/default/files/preparedness_response/docs/covid-19_rat_common-list_en.pdf

All the approved Antigen tests have a minimum of 90% sensitivity.
The one being sold in Lidl (Boson) has a
93.8% sensitivity, 100% specificity, according to the Belgian Study and
96.49% sensitivity, 99.03% specificity according to the German study.

Links to the studies are in the documents.

For Tony, Donnelly etc to be saying these tests have 50% sensitivity or less is just pure lies. I would love for one of the test manufacturers to sue them.

Silentcorner

Silentcorner wrote: »

Well it was the accepted science until late 2019.

So feel free to donate to whomever you want.

Source?

Silentcorner

charlie14 wrote: »

If you wish to keep fooling yourself that the Great Barrington Declaration was anything other than a one fits all proposed strategy for natural herd immunity it`s no skin off my nose.

.

I understand your interpretation is different to mine...but I'm more inclined to accept the advice of reputable scientists given the success that is evident in the States I have mentioned, and there are many more...this was also the accepted science for dealing with a pandemic until very recently.

Anybody, be it is State Governor or a leading expert or a European Government who deviates from hard lock downs gets vilified...the only way out of this is a mass vaccination program...with vaccines that didn't exist before we were all put into lock down.

You might consider John Ioannidis some kind of unethical grifter but he is one of the leading experts on epidemiology on the planet.

It's amazing the voices we aren't allowed to hear....

FintanMcluskey

normanoffside wrote: »

For Tony, Donnelly etc to be saying these tests have 50% sensitivity or less is just pure lies. I would love for one of the test manufacturers to sue them.

Can those medically qualified on NPHET be put before a medical council and forced to explain their judgements?

If an engineer formed an opinion on a repair of a piece of equipment he would be forced to explain his diagnosis using relevant data ie pressures, temperatures, to justify any actions followed.

If this crisis highlighted one thing, it’s that doctors in Ireland appear to be absolved from responsibility regarding decisions and apparently belief is alone is all that’s required for recommendations and actions

Mimon

Went to local Tesco and saw the plastic wrapping was off the toys in that isle. Was still cordoned but saw some toys at a great discount so reached across for them.

Went to self service and scanned them and no probs they did. Misery guts who was working on the pre scan checkout next door shouts over, no toys allowed to be sold until Monday.

The nice woman who was working the self service had to take them off me!!

Absolute joke and will have zero impact on Covid cases.

gozunda

Silentcorner wrote: »

There is no science behind the use of lock downs either....these are policies that no Government had previously prepared that I am aware of...

I have never advocated naturally acquired herd immunity, your interpretation of the GBD is obviously different to mine...they advocate for focused protection for vulnerable...

There are people who would be considered the experts, I have mentioned John Ioannidis numerous times as an example....the premier expert in epidemiology worldwide, unless you can show me another, who is an opponent of the use of lock downs...the people who signed the GBD are indeed experts, what they suggest is consistent with what John Ioannidis proposes....the State of Florida has taken an entirely different path to most countries and implemented policies consistent with the recommendations in the GBD....they protected the vulnerable as best they could....the State of Florida is booming, Americans are flocking there in massive numbers.

The Governor has articulated why he took that route, despite being absolutely vilified by US media (which is also consistent with anybody who is critical of lock downs), and credits the policy to the experts in Harvard and Stanford who advised him...that is the science I am referring to! Florida has become the great big elephant in the room on the issue of hard lock downs....Texas has followed, the Governor there was vilified by media and the President also...

Florida also undertook these policies long before a vaccine had been approved.

There is no science behind the actions of Governments...we know for instance that this virus does not transmit in any meaningful way outdoors...that is the science...where is that reflected in Government Policy.

IF you reply to this post, I will ask you politely not to misrepresent me, you have been doing that for a few days and it's not on!

God knows why Florida is continously dragged up in this thread.

I've posted most of this before- but I reckon no harm once again

You do know that Florida is no shining jewel in the US crown with regard to overall deaths and case numbers? Its not the worst but its certainly not the best either.

Interestingly the state of Florida did employ widespread restrictions . With DeSantis employing lockdowns / stay at home orders at the start of the Pandemic

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/01/florida-gov-ron-desantis-issues-statewide-stay-at-home-order/

In the second half 2020 - when Desantis started to roll back restrictions - Florida experienced daily case numbers surpassing the previous US daily record for new cases. Two major peaks of infection followed when health care being stretched beyond resources in many counties

That said things do seem to have improved - with the good news Florida seems to be getting towards a critical number vaccinsted with 44% of its residents at least partially vaccinated

Although interestingly Florida remains the leading state in the US with cases of the highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant amongst others and is in the top 10 US states where coronavirus is spreading the fastest on a per-person basis.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/florida-reports-10000-covid-19-variant-cases-surge/story?id=77553100

That said looks like the last of the restrictions there are being rolled back

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/03/florida-governor-desantis-suspends-all-remaining-covid-restrictions.html[/QUOTE]

As a governor DeSantis has faced considerable criticism for his handling of the pandemic there.

https://eu.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/2021/04/15/desantis-orders-worsened-spring-break-coronavirus-surge-mayors-say/7140623002/

https://www.news-press.com/story/news/coronavirus/2021/04/23/swfl-officials-gov-ron-desantis-not-blame-spring-break-covid-jump/7251690002/

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/02/us/desantis-florida-covid-vaccine-sites/index.html

Silentcorner

gozunda wrote: »

God knows why Florida is continously dragged up in this thread.

Its not the worst but its certainly not the best either.

Interestingly the state of Florida did employ widespread restrictions . With DeSantis employing lockdowns / stay at home orders at the start of the Pandemic

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/01/florida-gov-ron-desantis-issues-statewide-stay-at-home-order/

In the second half 2020 - when Desantis started to roll back restrictions - Florida experienced daily case numbers surpassing the previous US daily record for new cases. Two major peaks of infection followed when health care being stretched beyond resources in many counties

[/url]

What Desantis has proven in the States, is that it doesn't matter what you do, lock downs or very little restrictions the result is similar.

Lock Downs involve removing civil liberties and damaging the economy on a scale never seen before...Florida too the opposite route....the fact they haven't been the predicted basket case should be ringing alarm bells in everyone.

Unfortunately, for those who believe that Government imposed lock downs are controlling this virus Florida is the case you need to dispel that hypothesis.

The Governor faces a barrage of negative media attention as does anyone who doesn't advocate hard lock downs, the Governor of Texas was heavily criticized by media and the President over there recently as well....it's been used for political purposes that much is clear.

Sweden received the same treatment over here, we were led to believe that all hell was breaking loose over there, turns out they fared just the same as most of us.

Lock Downs are not controlling this virus...it is a deranged policy to think a Government can control an invisible pathogen that we seem to know very little about, in immune systems that we still don't fully understand.

gozunda

normanoffside wrote: »

I don't normally reply to posters I have on Ignore (Gozunda) but since I see this in the quoted tweet, here is the EC study
https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/default/files/preparedness_response/docs/covid-19_rat_common-list_en.pdf
All the approved Antigen tests have a minimum of 90% sensitivity. The one being sold in Lidl (Boson) has a 93.8% sensitivity, 100% specificity, according to the Belgian Study and 96.49% sensitivity, 99.03% specificity according to the German study. Links to the studies are in the documents. For Tony, Donnelly etc to be saying these tests have 50% sensitivity or less is just pure lies. I would love for one of the test manufacturers to sue them.

I don't normally reply to posters who post complete rubbish by way of a having a go - but since I see I've read that - I thought it better to point out that has fek all to do what was being subsequently discussed- which is the poor levels of sensitivity with regard to self administered Antigen tests.

But no matter.

And as has been discussed- with regard to approved Antigen tests - its not the tests themselves - but how and by who they are completed which dictates the final sensitivity of the tests - with results ranging from under 60% for self administered tests to just under 80% where the procedure is completed by a relevant trained professional. But I know you know that already. So the apparent outrage accusing others of telling "lies" is a bit moot tbh.

big syke

gozunda wrote: »

Are you paid everytime you post that chart?

gozunda

big syke wrote: »

Are you paid everytime you post that chart?

I know! - You'd think people would have a good understanding on the basics of this by now. But sadly not in all Some seem to be still making up their own theories.

So yeah I guess simple visual aid are always good help jog the old memory in such instances. But there we are
 
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

normanoffside

big syke wrote: »

Are you paid everytime you post that chart?

I note the little annex at the bottom of the chart that studies included some samples with a low viral load (i.e. non infectious) which Antigen tests are not supposed to detect anyway.

gozunda

normanoffside wrote: »

I note the little annex at the bottom of the chart that studies included some samples with a low viral load (i.e. non infectious) which Antigen tests are not supposed to detect anyway.

Some do and some don't. The Lidl is one of the latter. Which is one reason it is considered fairly useless for those with no symptoms using it to check whether they have covid or not (The above study with samples having low viral load replicates the use of this type of antigen test in real life)

At the other end of the scale- the Ellume  antigen test for example can be used by those without symptoms as the the test can detect low viral load

Do any of you lads work? Like, what are you going to do when things open again?

Silentcorner

Deleted User wrote: »

Do any of you lads work? Like, what are you going to do when things open again?

Do you post this on every thread or is it just this one?

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

Do any of you lads work? Like, what are you going to do when things open again?

Every day.

I start about 6am and work until late with emails etc, I’m contactable all weekend by my employer

I’m employed by a Multinational

I’m part of a squeezed middle income that will pay most for this I don’t mind to admit

Heard the south Mayo Sinn Feinner on the radio this morning, newstalk I think

The car was lucky it didn’t get set on fire to cure the noise

I just find it funny that you are all here all day when you could just be getting on with things.

Posting from work when you could be working.

Anyway.

ceadaoin.

Boggles wrote: »

1 It's a virus
2. It needs hosts to replicate
3. Keep hosts away from each other it can't replicate.

#science

4. Its actually pretty hard to keep "hosts" (aka humans) away from each other for extended periods.

#acceptreality

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Every day.

I start about 6am and work until late with emails etc, I’m contactable all weekend by my employer

I’m employed by a Multinational

I’m part of a squeezed middle income that will pay most for this I don’t mind to admit

Heard the south Mayo Sinn Feinner on the radio this morning, newstalk I think

The car was lucky it didn’t get set on fire to cure the noise

And 5000 posts in about a year.

Mimon

Mimon wrote: »

Went to local Tesco and saw the plastic wrapping was off the toys in that isle. Was still cordoned but saw some toys at a great discount so reached across for them.

Went to self service and scanned them and no probs they did. Misery guts who was working on the pre scan checkout next door shouts over, no toys allowed to be sold until Monday.

The nice woman who was working the self service had to take them off me!!

Absolute joke and will have zero impact on Covid cases.

The last year or so has really brought out the battle axes. Have seen it in shops a few times with staff hollering at customers, very uncivilized and unprofessional. Monday should bring them to their senses one would hope.

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

And 5000 posts in about a year.

I know it’s an embarrassingly crazy stat

I have never in my life felt so strongly about an issue, or our approach to an issue

Ireland is alone here