Vaccine Megathread - See OP for threadbans

snotboogie wrote: »

500k J&J unused would need a million Pfizer to make up the shortfall. That's quite the gap to fill.

Also probably strengthens the argument to start the 40s early and save the J&J for the 50s.

Talk in work maybe rather optimistically was that if they were vaccinating 50s, and 40s wanted to register for J&J they could do so (as technically no other vaccine available). Any fully formalised official announcement that has details?

is_that_so wrote: »

J&J is 26K this month, 136k next month (for now) and the remainder in June. Once the over 50s are done that's the end of its useful life for us. CureVac, another mRNA vaccine, may be approved by the end of June.

"End of us useful life for is" is simply just not true, firstly an age limit hasn't been confirmed, and NIAC said it would be acceptable if no other options are available, these aren't just gonna end up in the trash.

is_that_so wrote: »

J&J is 26K this month, 136k next month (for now) and the remainder in June. Once the over 50s are done that's the end of its useful life for us. CureVac, another mRNA vaccine, may be approved by the end of June.

The talk is coming through the IPU in relation to pharmacies potentially administrating J&J. Otherwise pharmacies will play no part in the roll out. IPU potentially clinging on to hope rather than expectation as the industry has done a lot in terms of preparation to administer vaccinations

duffman13 wrote: »

The talk is coming through the IPU in relation to pharmacies potentially administrating J&J. Otherwise pharmacies will play no part in the roll out. IPU potentially clinging on to hope rather than expectation as the industry has done a lot in terms of preparation to administer vaccinations

If that 450K vaccinations a week in June is true they will definitely be part of that. J&J, based on current advice, will probably not play a very large part in the programme past June and could be used over a very short window of 3-4 weeks.

Can they not just skip healthy 50-59 year olds until J&J comes on stream?

adam240610 wrote: »

"End of us useful life for is" is simply just not true, firstly an age limit hasn't been confirmed, and NIAC said it would be acceptable if no other options are available, these aren't just gonna end up in the trash.

If we had, say, a million people left to be vaccinated in mid June and around 450k J & J doses ready to go, J & J would definitely come into play for all age groups. They would not dramatically slow down the final part of the rollout just because of something NIAC had said back in April : at that point, practicalities and realism would take over.

Strazdas wrote: »

If we had, say, a million people left to be vaccinated in mid June and around 450k J & J doses ready to go, J & J would definitely come into play for all age groups. They would not dramatically slow down the final part of the rollout just because of something NIAC had said back in April : at that point, practicalities and realism would take over.

This is my hope, I'd love if you were able to register for a J&J in a pharmacy or something regardless of age at that point

duffman13 wrote: »

They can only be part of it if one of two things happen:

A) HSE go down this route of skipping 50-60s until J&J comes fully on stream

They reduce the age or use a well written clause into the recommendations to administer to younger cohorts.

Pharmacies can only play a part in either J&J or AZ. mRNA vaccines will not be suitable. Logistically J&J makes sense and the "no other vaccine available" clause may allow younger people to get it. One way or the other, pharmacies will be out by July but they can comfortably do 100k a week and more if needed

I cannot see them skipping the over 50s, politically its a huge own goal.

What happens I think depends on Pfizer. If we have enough of that they can still follow the age first approach. Otherwise, they may make the over 50s a special group in their own right but there will certainly be under 50s being done at the same time as some of them.

SJFly wrote: »

0.5 million unused doses of j&j would be a terrible mistake. Staying locked down for an extra couple of weeks to make up for that short fall would be so damaging. So many sectors are relying on a viable summer season. On a personal level, a lot of people may be able to cope with an extra couple of weeks. As a society we need to get people vaccinated an open up.

Completely agree, we are talking about weeks as though it is just time. Every week longer we are closed up, has an enormous cost both in terms of PUP and loss of VAT, etc.

There is no reason why 14k J&J should be sitting unused for the past few weeks. Get them in to somebody's arm and get through the backlog.

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Completely agree, we are talking about weeks as though it is just time. Every week longer we are closed up, has an enormous cost both in terms of PUP and loss of VAT, etc.

There is no reason why 14k J&J should be sitting unused for the past few weeks. Get them in to somebody's arm and get through the backlog.

They have people in mind for that now 26K.

Uk to decide tomorrow on whether to restrict Oxford-AstraZeneca for under 40s.

PhilOssophy wrote: »

But this is why NIAC's decision the other day was a terrible one. Even the wording of it was so loose - either the vaccine is safe for everybody or it is not.

It seemed more like "yeah, we have X supply, there's approx X in this group, lets leave it at that".

The changing of the age cohorts and going against EMA or FDA authorisations is absolutely ridiculous.

If they were saying "there is overwhelming evidence that under 50s have a bad reaction to this vaccine, hence we can't authorise its use in under 50s", fair enough. But this wasn't the case.

It was an absolutely terrible decision and didn't seem to be based on any irrefutable data from what I have read.

Which is why I think NIAC may be forced to do a u-turn eventually (and especially if the US etc are still vaccinating away with it with no major issues).

People might be willing to accept delays in the programme at the moment but I don't think the mood will be there for it in mid to late June.

is_that_so wrote: »

What happens I think depends on Pfizer. If we have enough of that they can still follow the age first approach. Otherwise, they may make the over 50s a special group in their own right but there will certainly be under 50s being done at the same time as some of them.

The more I think about it, I'm beginning to wonder if it really would be such a "hard sell" to start the 40s with mRNA shots once groups 4 & 7 are complete ? Once the 60s are finished with AZ, you could also start the higher 50s with whatever AZ and small amounts of J&J we'd have, whilst awaiting the bigger J&J deliveries to arrive.
Everyone knows the schedule has been messed around a few times, all govt would really have to say is the medical advice changed and the roll out subsequently changed in order to get the quickest possible result in accordance with NIAC recommendations. I dunno....

One thing I really can't see happening though is NIAC changing advice based on economic factors. That's just not going to happen IMHO.

hmmm wrote: »

The problem with that (and same issue with the AZ) is you end up with a surplus of these vaccines and the group remaining are the younger groups which are more likely to have worse side-effects. Ethically I couldn't give a 20 year-old female the AZ vaccine, when we won't give it to a 40 year-old.

We're backed into a corner at that point - it's why a lower age limit, or something like allowing males of any age to get the J&J vaccine would have been better just in my non-expert opinion. I think we will end up wasting hundreds of thousands of one-dose vaccines which could have gone to the 40 year old and up group, and it costing us a few extra weeks as a consequence.

Yes, you make some good points, but others would say that the risks from J & J seem to be extremely low, even lower than AstraZeneca and a rollout to younger people may be justified.

By the same token, it doesn't look like AZ will be given to the under 50s, no matter what happens in the meantime.