Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X Read OP For Mod Warnings

thebaz · 09-04-2021 01:57PM

Faugheen wrote: »

So to point the finger at NPHET when they're a bunch of civil servants with a very clear role, who the government are throwing under the bus, will always be called out by me.

They are also very well paid, on secure good wages and pensions, that many of us that are not so lucky to have , making lockdown especially harsh for some of us.

Silentcorner · 09-04-2021 02:04PM

Boggles wrote: »

What does it matter how many people they have France if you argument is this is seasonal?

I'm comparing France with France.

Well no. You have completely abandoned the role played by restrictions.

So your musings are quite muddied TBF.

They are also not backed up by the current reality.

The virus is driven predominately by a number of factors, very simply how people behave and the amount of virus circulating, amongst others and soon to be more.

There is certainly a seasonality aspect of it, but nowhere near to the degree you are claiming.

You just have to take a courtesy look around Europe.

Jesus...it's like talking to a brick wall.

The seasonality factor is huge....but we must look at it in an Irish context because that is the only context that matters here in Ireland.

The seasonality factor in any country is going to be different...Florida is different to New York for instance...or in densely populated areas versus thinly populated areas like here or England.

The Irish seasonality factor is all that matter for us here in Ireland....just like the health of our population, or our population density, or the health of our population....which is all going to be the same over the next flu season...a warm October will have an impact on viral infections, a freezing cold Oct will have a much different impact on viral infections...but all we should concern ourselves with is what our data is telling us, not what French or Brazilian data is telling them.

Faugheen · 09-04-2021 02:04PM

thebaz wrote: »

They are also very well paid, on secure good wages and pensions, that many of us that are not so lucky to have , making lockdown especially harsh for some of us.

Again you are pointing the finger at them.

NPHET advises, government decides. NPHET didn’t decide to shut the whole country down. The government made a pigs ear of the reopening twice and then pointed the finger at the ‘public health advice’ when everything went tits up.

If you want to ask people what the story is, ask the actual decision makers who refused to listen to NPHET for the bones of a year when things were going well, as NPHET recommended safeguards to a better track and tracing system and mandatory quarantine.

VonLuck · 09-04-2021 02:05PM

Boggles wrote: »

According to Tom Parlon, 50% of the biggest sites are currently open, which employs the largest amount of workers, add in the fact that not all construction workers are strictly site workers.

When did he say that? I must have missed that statement.

Boggles · 09-04-2021 02:11PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Jesus...it's like talking to a brick wall.

The seasonality factor is huge....but we must look at it in an Irish context because that is the only context that matters here in Ireland.

The seasonality factor in any country is going to be different...Florida is different to New York for instance...or in densely populated areas versus thinly populated areas like here or England.

The Irish seasonality factor is all that matter for us here in Ireland....just like the health of our population, or our population density, or the health of our population....which is all going to be the same over the next flu season...a warm October will have an impact on viral infections, a freezing cold Oct will have a much different impact on viral infections...but all we should concern ourselves with is what our data is telling us, not what French or Brazilian data is telling them.

Brick wall indeed.

The data is clear, restrictions suppressed the virus, but you don't see them as a factor.

Do you see how your thesis may be flawed?

Boggles · 09-04-2021 02:19PM

VonLuck wrote: »

When did he say that? I must have missed that statement.

Which statement? I was paraphrasing.

The CIF said the industry, as a whole, is “deeply frustrated” that around 50% of construction sites are closed

Speaking on RTÉ radio’s Today with Claire Byrne show, Mr Parlon said that anecdotally he had heard that a lot of construction workers were “out doing nixers” locally, which was “a hell of a lot less safe” than on a regulated site.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/nixer-work-will-take-place-if-clarity-not-given-to-construction-sector-cif-warns-1085513.html

It's Tom jobs to be vocal about the construction industry and God knows he hasn't been off the radio since January.

But he was met with gut laughing at times when he tried to claim construction workers were not working.

It went from 30% to %50% and when question about trades people working all over the place he threw in the nixer comment.

They are allowed work even if claiming the PUP mind you.

hamburgham · 09-04-2021 02:21PM

niallo27 wrote: »

But the question is why are we one of the most cautious if not thee most cautious country in the world right now. The modelling is not very complex, they are just using worst case scenarios every time. So the question is why are we one of the most cautious countries in the world right now.

Just thinking, Pat Kenny lives by the sea in Dalkey. He must definitely be going around in a life jacket as well as a mask in case he accidentially ends up in the sea with all the dodging and weaving he's doing avoiding "plumes" from joggers and cyclists.

09-04-2021 02:21PM

suicide_circus wrote: »

All of this was thrown out the window as a cascade of panic went through world governments.

The panic in governments came as a direct result of panic in the population which lead them to demand something be done. It was the appearance that something was being done that was wanted.

The panic in the population was directly stoked by the media, which includes social media and is dependent on a headline-only, clicks-and-scrolls profit model, which are in turn guided by algorithms that are designed to elicit the strongest possible emotional response in the scroller so that the dopamine hit keeps them scrolling and keeps the ad revenue up.

How many people would have gone along with this, had we not seen video of Chinese people dying in the street, or being welded into their homes? How many would have hand-waved cancer screenings and cardiology shut-downs and been fine with being locked in their homes if it weren't for the doom-laden pictures out of Italy?

Even without Covid-19 and similar Social Media-based hysteria we've seen, Social Media is massively damaging to our societies and our mental health. The sooner we realise it and relegate it to being a nasty little habit someone might partake in a few times a month and never tell anyone, the better.

Silentcorner · 09-04-2021 02:22PM

Boggles wrote: »

Brick wall indeed.

The data is clear, restrictions suppressed the virus, but you don't see them as a factor.

Do you see how your thesis may be flawed?

12 months into this and we don't know what the impact of restrictions have had here....viral surges flatten themselves every year here, so do restrictions impact the height of the surge or not? Answer is we don't know...it is very much unclear.

But what we do know is that outside of the two surges the restrictions don't do much...the levels of infection are so low that the health system has no problems dealing with the hospitalization levels....some restrictions during this period do make sense, like mass gatherings, why take the risk?

We have gambled, economically and politically that the strictest most draconian lock downs in the developed world work to keep us safe...we haven't tried anything else....I don't see any other country imposing more draconian lock downs so that speaks for itself...and a lot of those countries have older populations and higher population densities...we have also ignored the snowballing health crisis these restrictions cause...doesn't sound too smart now does it?

Klonker · 09-04-2021 02:26PM

Boggles wrote: »

It's Tom jobs to be vocal about the construction industry and God knows he hasn't been off the radio since January.

Yeah I wonder do the leaders of the construction industries in other countries get as much airtime as Tom looking for lifting construction restric......... Oh wait!

facehugger99 · 09-04-2021 02:37PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

We have gambled, economically and politically that the strictest most draconian lock downs in the developed world work to keep us safe...we haven't tried anything else....I don't see any other country imposing more draconian lock downs so that speaks for itself...and a lot of those countries have older populations and higher population densities...we have also ignored the snowballing health crisis these restrictions cause...doesn't sound too smart now does it?

Unfortunately we have had the perfect storm. It's been a three pronged issue.

1) The media has followed the clicks and the money. The have ramped up the hysteria since Day 1. They have shamelessly tried to play up the dangers of Covid. They have failed to hold decision makers to account and they have pumped out an incessant stream of fearmongering throughout.

2) The Irish public has by and large been a disgrace. Willing to trade away hard-won civil liberties and freedoms for 'safety'. Unquestioning obedience of what the 'man on the telly' tells them to do' Wallowing in the misery and hysteria throughout. A short-term outlook that has failed to realise that their current relatively cushy conditions are underpinned by the unsustainable borrowings of tens of billions of euros.
No other nation would meekly accept the severity and duration of the Irish lockdown and the really frightening this is, I don't think a substantial proportion of them are even near protesting it.

It has been an eye-opener and for the first time in my life, I'm embarrassed to be Irish. No other democratic country would have accepted what we did.

3) The Government. Cowardly, weak, self-centered and selfish. The worst generation of politicians in the history of the State, they have caved to the hysteria from the media and public. They have spent tens of billions covering their own arses.

If any of the above 3 had acted in a responsible manner we would not be in the absolute hole we are now.

It has been thoroughly depressing to watch this unfold.

Boggles · 09-04-2021 02:38PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

12 months into this and we don't know what the impact of restrictions have had here

I think that is pretty much established TBF.

francogarbanzo · 09-04-2021 02:44PM

Boggles wrote: »

I think that is pretty much established TBF.

Which is established? That we don't know what the impact has been/will be? Or the impact itself is already established?

Silentcorner · 09-04-2021 02:45PM

Boggles wrote: »

I think that is pretty much established TBF.

So why aren't the rest of the developed world imposing the harsh most draconian lock downs we are...are we smarter then them do you think?

Boggles · 09-04-2021 02:48PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

So why aren't the rest of the developed world imposing the harsh most draconian lock downs we are...are we smarter then them do you think?

Silentcorner wrote: »

We do not need to look at other countries

I thought we could only discuss what is happening in Ireland?

Zebra3 · 09-04-2021 02:48PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

Unfortunately we have had the perfect storm. It's been a three pronged issue.

1) The media has followed the clicks and the money. The have ramped up the hysteria since Day 1. They have shamelessly tried to play up the dangers of Covid. They have failed to hold decision makers to account and they have pumped out an incessant stream of fearmongering throughout.

2) The Irish public has by and large been a disgrace. Willing to trade away hard-won civil liberties and freedoms for 'safety'. Unquestioning obedience of what the 'man on the telly' tells them to do' Wallowing in the misery and hysteria throughout. A short-term outlook that has failed to realise that their current relatively cushy conditions are underpinned by the unsustainable borrowings of tens of billions of euros.
No other nation would meekly accept the severity and duration of the Irish lockdown and the really frightening this is, I don't think a substantial proportion of them are even near protesting it.

It has been an eye-opener and for the first time in my life, I'm embarrassed to be Irish. No other democratic country would have accepted what we did.

3) The Government. Cowardly, weak, self-centered and selfish. The worst generation of politicians in the history of the State, they have caved to the hysteria from the media and public. They have spent tens of billions covering their own arses.

If any of the above 3 had acted in a responsible manner we would not be in the absolute hole we are now.

It has been thoroughly depressing to watch this unfold.

Great post, but you should have given an honourable mention to the so-called opposition.

VonLuck · 09-04-2021 02:55PM

Boggles wrote: »

Which statement? I was paraphrasing.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/nixer-work-will-take-place-if-clarity-not-given-to-construction-sector-cif-warns-1085513.html

It's Tom jobs to be vocal about the construction industry and God knows he hasn't been off the radio since January.

But he was met with gut laughing at times when he tried to claim construction workers were not working.

It went from 30% to %50% and when question about trades people working all over the place he threw in the nixer comment.

They are allowed work even if claiming the PUP mind you.

Nixers hardly count towards 50% of the biggest sites being open. I can guarantee you that most large sites are closed.

Silentcorner · 09-04-2021 02:55PM

Boggles wrote: »

I thought we could only discuss what is happening in Ireland?

OK I see the difficulty here....

There are two elements to this

The virus itself....which to be fair can be very nasty and warrants certain measures...and is having different impacts all around the world....here we can now see the data from 12 months of this, the data is crystal clear, two surges in what is our flu season that last approx 6 weeks each, typical of the annual flu season....our policies do not in any way reflect the data we have from the last 12 months.

Then there is Government policy....which is varying all around the world and having different impacts all around the world....

Our government policy has been to impose the most draconian lock downs in the developed world...costing us a fortune and creating a massive health crisis that is looming as a result.

We are doing this for a virus that thankfully is no where near as deadly as we were initially led to believe.

FintanMcluskey · 09-04-2021 02:57PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The panic in governments came as a direct result of panic in the population which lead them to demand something be done. It was the appearance that something was being done that was wanted.

The panic in the population was directly stoked by the media, which includes social media and is dependent on a headline-only, clicks-and-scrolls profit model, which are in turn guided by algorithms that are designed to elicit the strongest possible emotional response in the scroller so that the dopamine hit keeps them scrolling and keeps the ad revenue up.

How many people would have gone along with this, had we not seen video of Chinese people dying in the street, or being welded into their homes? How many would have hand-waved cancer screenings and cardiology shut-downs and been fine with being locked in their homes if it weren't for the doom-laden pictures out of Italy?

Even without Covid-19 and similar Social Media-based hysteria we've seen, Social Media is massively damaging to our societies and our mental health. The sooner we realise it and relegate it to being a nasty little habit someone might partake in a few times a month and never tell anyone, the better.

We still haven’t recalibrated our response to the now known level of risk involved.

I can’t understand it

It’s as if this is still believed an indiscriminate killer

Klonker · 09-04-2021 02:59PM

Zebra3 wrote: »

Great post, but you should have given an honourable mention to the so-called opposition.

This is the strangest thing of all. We have a government that implemented the harshest restrictions in Europe since this pandemic began. You would think the opposition parties, the public and the media would all be questioning why have we had the harshest restrictions when we have one of the youngest populations. But no, the vast majority complain that restrictions have not gone far enough. Its actually baffling and its going to be a long road back I fear.

Silentcorner · 09-04-2021 03:04PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

We still haven’t recalibrated our response to the now known level of risk involved.

I can’t understand it

It’s as if this is still an indiscriminate killer

It is mad...I can't understand it either.

If what Varadkar said earlier in the week is where the Government is at...that people who have been vaccinated will be allowed to engage in more activities than those who haven't been vaccinated I think could cause public outrage that can't be ignored...

We are rightfully vaccinating our most vulnerable first...as it is because of these people our young have been forced to cull all social activities from sport to meetings, to social lives...to deny those young people access to vital parts of their lives long after those vulnerable people have been vaccinated is the point where one has to ask what exactly is behind this...there is no justification for prolonging the cost of this to young people, especially during the next 5 months where no one is at risk in any meaningful way.

Boggles · 09-04-2021 03:07PM

VonLuck wrote: »

Nixers hardly count towards 50% of the biggest sites being open. I can guarantee you that most large sites are closed.

The Nixers are on top of the 50% sites been open.

The sites that are open are the big ones, e.g The Children's hospital.

Boggles · 09-04-2021 03:15PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

OK I see the difficulty here....

There are two elements to this

The virus itself....which to be fair can be very nasty and warrants certain measures...and is having different impacts all around the world....here we can now see the data from 12 months of this, the data is crystal clear, two surges in what is our flu season that last approx 6 weeks each, typical of the annual flu season....our policies do not in any way reflect the data we have from the last 12 months.

Then there is Government policy....which is varying all around the world and having different impacts all around the world....

Our government policy has been to impose the most draconian lock downs in the developed world...costing us a fortune and creating a massive health crisis that is looming as a result.

We are doing this for a virus that thankfully is no where near as deadly as we were initially led to believe.

But your contention is that virus acts differently in Ireland because of our unique seasonality, then surely comparing other mitigation measures in other countries is moot?

For your claim to be true our public health can only react to our unique situation, and as you have stated previously you cannot look at other countries and apply the same variables.

So how can you confidently claim if we did what X country did we would have had their outcomes?

Silentcorner · 09-04-2021 03:29PM

Boggles wrote: »

But your contention is that virus acts differently in Ireland because of our unique seasonality, then surely comparing other mitigation measures in other countries is moot?

For your claim to be true our public health can only react to our unique situation, and as you have stated previously you cannot look at other countries and apply the same variables.

So how can you confidently claim if we did what X country did we would have had their outcomes?

Outside our traditional flu season, there isn't a hope our hospital system can be overwhelmed which is the reason for these draconian lock downs...it was the same last summer we could have enjoyed a much more relaxed approach but we took the strictest most expensive route for which no one was criticized for because there is no one there to criticize, no political opposition, no media outlet nothing.

Which we are doing again today...because of the threat of variants....and only variants....which we had plenty of last year at a time when no one cared about variants....because again, no political opposition, no media outlet challenge this madness...we know it is madness, because the data from the last 12 months of this indicate that it is madness!!!

Pussyhands · 09-04-2021 03:31PM

You'd wonder sometimes.

Remember it was "it's about hospital numbers, not cases" when talking about opening up?

Remember it was "it's about vaccinating the vulnerable" then we can open back up?

Remember it was "stay at home, protect your granny"...now it's "stay at home while you're vaccinated granny goes out"?

Now it's "When you're vaccinated you can get your hair cut etc."

What is the reasoning for not opening up the country when the old people who are the majority of deaths, are vaccinated? Why can't this question be put to NPHET and the government? Variants can't be the reason because the risk of variants are going to be there forever.

Silentcorner · 09-04-2021 03:41PM

Pussyhands wrote: »

You'd wonder sometimes.

Remember it was "it's about hospital numbers, not cases" when talking about opening up?

Remember it was "it's about vaccinating the vulnerable" then we can open back up?

Remember it was "stay at home, protect your granny"...now it's "stay at home while you're vaccinated granny goes out"?

Now it's "When you're vaccinated you can get your hair cut etc."

What is the reasoning for not opening up the country when the old people who are the majority of deaths, are vaccinated? Why can't this question be put to NPHET and the government? Variants can't be the reason because the risk of variants are going to be there forever.

Well you have to bear in mind...

It is impossible to expand the health system.
It is impossible to encourage people to take Vit d.
It is impossible to rely on Rapid testing.
It is impossible to rely on therapeutics that treat the virus.
It is impossible to shield the vulnerable and allow the healthy live normally.
It is impossible to exit these policies until every last person is vaccinated.

We know as little as we did last year because of variants...deadly more transmissible variants...we must ignore the flu variants we get every year and the variants of covid we got last year because every new day we start from scratch in our understanding of this deadly virus that the vast vast majority of us would survive comfortably.

It's just following the science folks!!!

Aph2016 · 09-04-2021 03:41PM

What's clear is, we have a year's worth of data, and it's not being looked at objectively. The goalposts are being continuously moved and this leaves the country in a permanent state of limbo. We're well into April and there's nobody standing up or putting up any opposition to the current situation.

Boggles · 09-04-2021 03:43PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Outside our traditional flu season, there isn't a hope our hospital system can be overwhelmed

Yeah we are lucky we don't have a 9 month flu season like France.

Silentcorner wrote: »

which is the reason for these draconian lock downs...it was the same last summer we could have enjoyed a much more relaxed approach but we took the strictest most expensive route for which no one was criticized for because there is no one there to criticize, no political opposition, no media outlet nothing.

If memory serves correct we sped up our reopening plan last summer?

I must be the only one who has some fond memories of last summer.

Silentcorner wrote: »

Which we are doing again today...because of the threat of variants....and only variants....which we had plenty of last year at a time when no one cared about variants....because again, no political opposition, no media outlet challenge this madness...we know it is madness, because the data from the last 12 months of this indicate that it is madness!!!

What is it exactly you are saying?

The pharma companies, scientists and public health officials should not be tracking variants of interest and airing on the side of caution?

Loafing Oaf · 09-04-2021 03:48PM

Aph2016 wrote: »

We're well into April and there's nobody standing up or putting up any opposition to the current situation.

Why would anyone bother? It'll all be over in a few months anyway. Who will remember or care in a year's time that the hairdressers weren't open till the beginning of June when it probably would have been safe to do it in the middle of May?

FintanMcluskey · 09-04-2021 03:54PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Why would anyone bother? It'll all be over in a few months anyway. Who will remember or care in a year's time that the hairdressers weren't open till the beginning of June when it probably would have been safe to do it in the middle of May?

Because every day these businesses are closed unnecessarily has an unbelievable cost involved

One that’s been justified with a “just in case” attitude

The lack of reality when talking about unnecessary business closures is frightening

If every country was following Ireland’s approach since March 2020 it would be slightly more palatable, the problem is most of them ended lockdown 1 in May 2020 and entered lockdown 2 a week ago

Ireland will be on its own when the bill arrives

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X Read OP For Mod Warnings