Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

ypres5

JMNolan wrote: »

According to boggles there is only two choices, complete lockdown or massive death. No way of changing our restrictions or the entire system will collapse. Maybe I'm wronging you boggles, maybe you agree that there is at least one restriction we could change without a massive amount of dead people in hospitals?

He also holds top secret info on the construction industry that not even the unions themselves know

hynesie08

hynesie08 wrote: »

How so?

They are a task force set up when a public health emergency dictates it. Their sole reason for existence is Covid-19, the fact that they should be part of a larger group of advisors with experts on finance, economic recovery and mental health is a government failing. Nphet are doing the one thing they're set up for.

Yup. As much as I dislike the restrictions, a team full of doctors set up specifically to deal with a health crisis is always going to be a single-issue body with a single-issue focus.

Society itself is never a single-issue thing, and the failure to account for that and have NPHET feed into a wider group of people who have expertise in more than merely healthcare sits squarely on the shoulders of the government.

It's interesting to see people complain about there being no opposition in Ireland. Maybe we should become more like the Isle of Man, where political parties exist but the Manx people flat-out reject them and have a government full of independents.

Silentcorner

Faugheen wrote: »

It actually baffles how short-sighted some people are and that they are incapable of actually critically analysing anything. They'll just read a bunch of nonsense in an article or on the internet and shout and point fingers.

I'm not sure a person who can't see the seasonality factor of this virus is in a position to be calling people morons.

We have 12 months of data.

We have had 2 surges in 12 months during what is our flu season.

We know what demographic this affects the most.

We know we will get two surges that will last 6 weeks approx in which time the health system will be under pressure...like it is every year.

The only factor that is still driving these draconian restrictions that ARE going to cause an even greater health crisis is the belief that variants are deadly and can surge at any moment at any time of the year despite the amount of variants we have seen since the beginning.

It baffles me that ordinary people cannot discern between the actual data and what is presented to them in the daily hysterical media cycle.

Boggles

ypres5 wrote: »

He also holds top secret info on the construction industry that not even the unions themselves know

All that is in your head, even other posters or now pointing it out to you.

Maybe time to put the shovel, eh?

Stormyteacup

thebaz wrote: »

Well I would have assumed (and hoped) they would work with HSE in ensuring what is best for overall health of country, along with ther mandate to control COVID.

That actually is not NPHETs job. Biggest con perpetrated on Irish public was that NPHET care about anything other than protecting the health system.

NPHET board in 2017 has many of the same names or titles as its current form. In effect they are expert lobbyists for the health system.

But it’s wrong to absolve them of any responsibility because of a weak government handing NPHET the reins.

If you are aware of the collateral damage that will come about as a result of pushing your mandate at all costs, then you have a responsibility to mitigate your advice to consider that perhaps the damage you will cause outside of your remit will come at a bigger cost than your success.

thebaz

Stormyteacup wrote: »

That actually is not NPHETs job.

Surely the whole purpose of NPHET is to help Ireland recover/get over from a medical emergency - other issues (should) get factored in , whether thats mental health or other medical issues , this should be about doing whats right for the overall health of the country (I would think and hope) .

hynesie08

Stormyteacup wrote: »

That actually is not NPHETs job. Biggest con perpetrated on Irish public was that NPHET care about anything other than protecting the health system.

NPHET board in 2017 has many of the same names or titles as its current form. In effect they are expert lobbyists for the health system.

But it’s wrong to absolve them of any responsibility because of a weak government handing NPHET the reins.

If you are aware of the collateral damage that will come about as a result of pushing your mandate at all costs, then you have a responsibility to mitigate your advice to consider that perhaps the damage you will cause outside of your remit will come at a bigger cost than your success.

But wouldn't that responsibility fall on the government to appoint a counter voice? Like who is weighing up the financial and economic cost of nphets recommendations?

I don't want health professionals giving half arsed advice because they did some rough accounting work.

Faugheen

Faugheen wrote: »

Like I’ve said, watch the briefings instead of picking selective quotes.

Nolan’s contribution was mostly positive, again. The R number is close to 1. Of course that’s a precarious position. Anyone who thinks otherwise hasn’t a clue what they are talking about it.

It was also said close contacts have stayed stable for the last few weeks and said that was helping reducing the R number.

As long as the R-number is close to or at 1 then the situation is volatile. If you listened to anything that has been said in the last year then you would understand that.

The R 0 being close to 1 does not make the situation volatile in and of itself. There are plenty of seasonal viruses that have an R 0 of 1 or more, since an R 0 of greater than 1 is required for any sort of increasing spread to occur.

If the R 0 is 3 and it turns out that with the current level of vaccination the rate of death and hospitalisation is very low, what does it matter?

Faugheen

thebaz wrote: »

Surely the whole purpose of NPHET is to help Ireland recover/get over from a medical emergency - other issues (should) get factored in , whether thats mental health or other medical issues , this should be about doing whats right for the overall health of the country (I would think and hope) .

As NPHET have pointed out numerous times, the wider health system doesn't have the resources.

That's what happens when you have a body like the HSE which has been mismanaged for years running the health service.

You really are showing yourself up to having no clue what NPHET actually does and even when it's pointed out to you, you want to point fingers anyway.

arccosh

Silentcorner wrote: »

I'm not sure a person who can't see the seasonality factor of this virus is in a position to be calling people morons.


We have had 2 surges in 12 months during what is our flu season.

Yes, those peaks in April and October last year are prime flu season

Also the January peak that wasn't there in December... hmm, I wonder what happened during December

If this 4th peak becomes any more significant, are you blaming that on flu season too?

ypres5

Boggles wrote: »

All that is in your head, even other posters or now pointing it out to you.

Maybe time to put the shovel, eh?

So what's your source for the majority of construction workers being back at work like you claimed last week? Maybe grab your shovel and dig out that answer or admit you lied rather than bleating and playing the victim

thebaz

Faugheen wrote: »

You really are showing yourself up to having no clue what NPHET actually does and even when it's pointed out to you, you want to point fingers anyway.

You really have a condesending way of posting - actually nasty - insinuating anyone that does not agree with you or NPHET are stupid. Goodbye.

Penfailed

thebaz wrote: »

should we not be lookingt at loosening lockdown

We are.

ypres5

Faugheen wrote: »

As NPHET have pointed out numerous times, the wider health system doesn't have the resources.

That's what happens when you have a body like the HSE which has been mismanaged for years running the health service.

You really are showing yourself up to having no clue what NPHET actually does and even when it's pointed out to you, you want to point fingers anyway.

For all intents and purposes nphet and the hse are the same thing. Nphet is made up of people who have worked for the hse for years so them criticizing the health service for being inadequate is hilarious

Faugheen

Deleted User wrote: »

The R 0 being close to 1 does not make the situation volatile in and of itself. There are plenty of seasonal viruses that have an R 0 of 1 or more, since an R 0 of greater than 1 is required for any sort of increasing spread to occur.

If the R 0 is 3 and it turns out that with the current level of vaccination the rate of death and hospitalisation is very low, what does it matter?

Yes it does. If you have 400 cases and an R0 of 1, then those 400 cases theoretically turns into another 400 etc.

An R0 of 1 is absolutely volatile. If it's at 1.2 then 500 people are passing it onto 600. Those 600 are passing onto 720. Those 720 pass it to 864 etc etc etc.

However if it's at 0.8, those 500 people are passing it onto 400, who are then passing it onto 320 and cases are shrinking.

If the R-number is in any way close to one it's volatile because a slight increase in close contacts can shift that above one.

How people can't see how an R0 close to or at 1 is volatile is beyond me. It's literally having a go for the sake of having a go but with zero idea about what a volatile R0 is.

Faugheen

ypres5 wrote: »

For all intents and purposes nphet and the hse are the same thing. Nphet is made up of people who have worked for the hse for years so them criticizing the health service for being inadequate is hilarious

More misinformation and falseness.

There are HSE heads on NPHET, but NPHET is not the HSE.

Silentcorner

arccosh wrote: »

Yes, those peaks in April and October last year are prime flu season

Also the January peak that wasn't there in December... hmm, I wonder what happened during December

If this 4th peak becomes any more significant, are you blaming that on flu season too?

Flu season falls between Oct and March every year...we get typically two surges of whatever variants of the flu are in circulation, during which our health service is stretched.

The first Covid surge was in March last year, at the tail end of flu season, the next surge was Dec...it was during both these surges our health system was at it's most vulnerable...it was not stretched at any time outside of these two surges.

Cases will rise during those darker colder months but they will only surge twice during flu season....and it will surge, lock down or no lock down...and the cases will flatten...lock down or no lock down.

When you are testing tens of thousands of people a week year round you will get positive cases year round....just like the flu.

Faugheen

Faugheen wrote: »

As NPHET have pointed out numerous times, the wider health system doesn't have the resources.

That's what happens when you have a body like the HSE which has been mismanaged for years running the health service.

You really are showing yourself up to having no clue what NPHET actually does and even when it's pointed out to you, you want to point fingers anyway.

You know, it wouldn't be so bad if there were a journalist in the country with enough spine to point out that Ireland's restrictions have been as uniquely lengthy and restrictive as they have because of the government's mismanagement of the healthcare system and failure, even in the face of a pandemic, even while borrowing billions, to shore it up in any significant way or do... basically anything other than put the onus on the citizens and point the finger at them when things go wrong.

Instead of considering it their mission to propagandise people into believing the black death is upon us.

I mean it wouldn't be so bad, but it does seem that, at a per-capita level across the anglosphere, the political representatives and journalists who have spent over a year constantly telling us how very dangerous Covid is (dangerous enough to suspend liberties) have also been the ones most likely to break restrictions. For a while there last year it felt as though these "elites" believed that holding a glass of something bubbly in a room with at least 10 other six-figure earners was a Covid cure.

Faugheen

thebaz wrote: »

You really have a condesending way of posting - actually nasty - insinuating anyone that does not agree with you or NPHET are stupid. Goodbye.

Nasty? You are spreading misinformation and absolute nonsense about what the role of NPHET is because you actually don't know what its role is.

Don't call me 'nasty' for calling you out on your attempts to whip a lot of frustrated people into a frenzy.

Typical gaslighting. You make false statements and yet the person who calls you out is the 'nasty' one.

Faugheen

Faugheen wrote: »

Yes it does. If you have 400 cases and an R0 of 1, then those 400 cases theoretically turns into another 400 etc.

An R0 of 1 is absolutely volatile. If it's at 1.2 then 500 people are passing it onto 600. Those 600 are passing onto 720. Those 720 pass it to 864 etc etc etc.

However if it's at 0.8, those 500 people are passing it onto 400, who are then passing it onto 320 and cases are shrinking.

If the R-number is in any way close to one it's volatile because a slight increase in close contacts can shift that above one.

How people can't see how an R0 close to or at 1 is volatile is beyond me. It's literally having a go for the sake of having a go but with zero idea about what a volatile R0 is.

Sorry, I don't think I was very clear.

I know how R 0 works. I am asking you why you think the R 0 is relevant if the vast majority of the vulnerable are vaccinated and the demographics left are very unlikely to be seriously affected?

It is only a "precarious" situation if those things are unknowns, surely?

Penfailed

Boggles wrote: »

All that is in your head, even other posters or now pointing it out to you.

Maybe time to put the shovel, eh?

I pointed out one thing. Ypres5 mentioned another that you haven't responded to. It's okay to admit that you are wrong sometimes. I've done it a few times in this thread over the past year.

Faugheen

Deleted User wrote: »

Sorry, I don't think I was very clear.

I know how R 0 works. I am asking you why you think the R 0 is relevant if the vast majority of the vulnerable are vaccinated and the demographics left are very unlikely to be seriously affected?

It is only a "precarious" situation if those things are unknowns, surely?

Right now, this minute, the vast majority of vulnerables are not vaccinated. So that's why it's still volatile.

thebaz

Faugheen wrote: »

Nasty? You are spreading misinformation and absolute nonsense about what the role of NPHET is because you actually don't know what its role is.

Don't call me 'nasty' for calling you out on your attempts to whip a lot of frustrated people into a frenzy.

Typical gaslighting. You make false statements and yet the person who calls you out is the 'nasty' one.

I stated we flatennd curve , we have vaccinated the vulnerable , we have had nearly 6 months of lockdown , I stated people are suffering from over anxiety and depression . and fed up. NPHET and the HSE are both under Department of Health .

Boggles

ypres5 wrote: »

So what's your source for the majority of construction workers being back at work like you claimed last week? Maybe grab your shovel and dig out that answer or admit you lied rather than bleating and playing the victim

I don't think you know what a "lie" actually is.

Here is 2 recent examples of falsehoods.

ypres5 wrote: »

So do you believe that all construction is open as you've claimed in the past?

ypres5 wrote: »

He actually asked me for the same thing yesterday and I linked to a post he made last week saying all domestic construction was open. After i did that he became very evasive (out of character for him) and he hasn't responded to me since

Goal posts are currently in the car park.

Now again I have been more than patient but you continue to label me a liar by claiming falsehoods.

That is bad faith posting, so please stop doing it, I will no longer be engaging with you.

Stormyteacup

hynesie08 wrote: »

But wouldn't that responsibility fall on the government to appoint a counter voice? Like who is weighing up the financial and economic cost of nphets recommendations?

I don't want health professionals giving half arsed advice because they did some rough accounting work.

Yes absolutely the government should have had counter input for balance. They tried with the Special Covid Committee but that understandably failed and was frustrated by too little access to information and key personnel (convenient that when Paul Reid and Tony Holohan were called to appear, meetings were curtailed to 2 hours max).

So that was the extent of any attempt to weigh up the economic and social costs of NPHETs recommendations.

Regardless, NPHET know they are the only game in town, they are very much aware of it, and they have abused that position to ensure their success at the expense of the overall health of the nation.

arccosh

Silentcorner wrote: »

Flu season falls between Oct and March every year...we get typically two surges of whatever variants of the flu are in circulation, during which our health service is stretched.

The first Covid surge was in March last year, at the tail end of flu season, the next surge was Dec...it was during both these surges our health system was at it's most vulnerable...it was not stretched at any time outside of these two surges.

Cases will rise during those darker colder months but they will only surge twice during flu season....and it will surge, lock down or no lock down...and the cases will flatten...lock down or no lock down.

When you are testing tens of thousands of people a week year round you will get positive cases year round....just like the flu.

I think October 2020 and the numerous stats from Southern hemisphere countries over the last few months (which were in summer btw) have something to say about your bull****

Boggles

Penfailed wrote: »

I pointed out one thing. Ypres5 mentioned another that you haven't responded to. It's okay to admit that you are wrong sometimes. I've done it a few times in this thread over the past year.

I have no problem admitting I am wrong Penfailed.

But the reality is the majority of construction workers are working.

According to Tom Parlon, 50% of the biggest sites are currently open, which employs the largest amount of workers, add in the fact that not all construction workers are strictly site workers.

Also Tom admitted when asked, that yes he is aware many workers on PUP who are currently working.

Approx 150,000 construction workers in the state.

The sector with the highest number of people receiving PUP this week is Accommodation and Food Service activities (107,043), followed by Wholesale and Retail Trade (71,099) and Construction (54,314)

So my opinion is based on what Tom Parlon has said and what the figures from the relevant departments have published.

So by every single metric and I won't even mention the anecdotal ones, the majority of construction workers are working.

Now the poster you are referring to is aware of this because I have posted it in more detail before, I have determined he is a bad faith poster and will no longer be engaging.

arccosh

I have a few mates in construction who never stopped working, even during the strict lockdowns...

robbiezero

Faugheen wrote: »

Right now, this minute, the vast majority of vulnerables are not vaccinated. So that's why it's still volatile.

So what do you think could happen that makes it so volatile?
Will someone suddenly blow a whistle and people will pile into pubs, shopping centres and restaurants and homes and drive us into another Christmas surge?

If we had started as we should have ages ago easing outdoor and travel restrictions, what do you think is going to happen?

Where is this surge that we are supposedly on the precipice of, going to come from?

thebaz

Faugheen wrote: »

Right now, this minute, the vast majority of vulnerables are not vaccinated. So that's why it's still volatile.

by Yesterday we had vaccinated a million people , surly the vulverable have been vaccinated by now, even allowing for the time for immunity to kick in.