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Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

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  • #4712
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Faugheen wrote: »
    NPHET don't test but they made that recommendation in August, when the HSE should have its testing regimes in place. But no, it was typical nonsense from the HSE following the general 'be grand' line instead of actually being ambitious in in expanding its test and trace capacity.

    Look what happened because there was no MHQ as recommended last May. B117 is now rampant.

    People make fun of NPHET about being too cautious but nearly everything they predicted would happen has happened, and that is down to gross negligience from the government.
    They have no power over the HSE. I was mostly supportive of NPHET but there has been some very dogmatic stuff coming out of them at times, culminating in that mess in October, which they too played their own part in. Since then there has been a teeny bit more humility and a recognition that they are there to advise. If things go as hoped we will also see the end of it soon.

    Not sure what B.1.117 has to do with last May as the current VOCs really only emerged in around December.


  • #4713
    patnor1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,304 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Hạ Long Bay wrote: »
    It's a bit unclear from your post are you trying to say that the current CV19 vaccines are not trialed and tested?

    Their development, trial and testing were not even close to what is a norm or average with any other vaccine.
    They are new, there was not a single corona virus vaccine developed so far. Some of them are experimental gene therapy and not a vaccine per definition of vaccine. They also skipped animal trials and long term effect studies.
    In case you do not know long term studies are being conducted right now and are scheduled to finish some time next year.


  • #4714
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,468 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    Their development, trial and testing were not even close to what is a norm or average with any other vaccine.
    They are new, there was not a single corona virus vaccine developed so far. Some of them are experimental gene therapy and not a vaccine per definition of vaccine. They also skipped animal trials and long term effect studies.
    In case you do not know long term studies are being conducted right now and are scheduled to finish some time next year.

    Probably more for the vaccine thread but that is false.

    Animal trials were not skipped.The vaccines were tested on mice and macaques.

    All phases of trials have been conducted and are being conducted. Phase 4 of trials is mass rollout and real time monitoring, which is what is happening now.


  • #4715
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    niallo27 wrote: »
    Why are you comparing level 5 restrictions to Brazil, you do know there are levels in between. Why did you pick one of the worst countries in the world. Anyone can make a graph to prove their point. Its embarrassing at this stage, anyway I thought we were told we would have over a 100k deaths if we went on as normal.

    Because people we speaking about 500K unemployed. Levels in-between include various levels of unemployment.

    Going for a Brazilian type approach also has downsides.


  • #4716
    Faugheen
    Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    is_that_so wrote: »
    They have no power over the HSE.

    They’ve no power over anyone.


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  • #4717
    Golfman64
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 314 ✭✭Golfman64


    lee_baby_simms wrote: »
    He basically said that the damage that’s been done to livelihoods is due to the virus and not due to NPHET.

    That’s interesting - I guess it was the Irish version of the virus that closed construction here and put thousands out of work, closed golf and tennis courts and clubs that remained open in many other countries, decimated business and tourism by enacting overly draconian travel rules....have I missed anything?

    All the ‘Irish’ version of the virus but not the madness of NPHET right?


  • #4718
    Faugheen
    Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    Golfman64 wrote: »
    That’s interesting - I guess it was the Irish version of the virus that closed construction here and put thousands out of work, closed golf and tennis courts and clubs that remained open in many other countries, decimated business and tourism by enacting overly draconian travel rules....have I missed anything?

    All the ‘Irish’ version of the virus but not the madness of NPHET right?

    What about the government who actually make the decisions?

    What about the government who made the decision to ignore NPHET advice for nearly a year?

    The lengths people will go to deflect from the fact the government make the decisions.


  • #4719
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    niallo27 wrote: »
    How about something in the middle, even you can't still agree these over cautious restrictions are correct.

    Nialllo after a year of this it's pretty clear we don't agree. In a years time we still won't agree. It takes a lot of time and effort to get data, process it and post here. You are free to post what you like.

    Let's agree to disagree. All the best.

    What do you think the numbers will be like in two weeks time? I'd say they'll be back increasing albeit slowly at first. Until we are all vaccinated it's not over.

    549592.png


  • #4720
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,775 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    NPHET cannot be blamed for public policy. They are an advisory body.

    Public policy is the job of government - ideally implemented by an effective, forward-thinking government with leadership aptitude.

    But it's very difficult to govern when you cannot assemble a collective spine between all ministers in the current government.

    And it's even more difficult to conduct that very necessary spinal rearrangement when you have meager-weak Michael Martin in charge. He comes across as more of a junior minister than anything approximating what we conceive of as Taoiseach.


  • #4721
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Deleted User wrote: »
    NPHET cannot be blamed for public policy. They are an advisory body.

    Public policy is the job of government - ideally implemented by an effective, forward-thinking government with leadership aptitude.

    But it's very difficult to govern when you cannot assemble a collective spine between all ministers in the current government.

    And it's even more difficult to conduct that very necessary spinal rearrangement when you have meager-weak Michael Martin in charge. He comes across as more of a junior minister than anything approximating what we conceive of as Taoiseach.

    As a matter of interest, could you outline which parties/politicians in Ireland would have done a better job with the Covid-19 pandemic and why?


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  • #4722
    Messi19
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 751 ✭✭✭Messi19


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Yeah and we had quite a few deaths even with this massive amount of unemployment.

    Imagine how many people would have died had we carried on as normal.

    Based on the below chart if we had no restrictions like Brazil, on a per capita basis we would have had ~8500 deaths as opposed to the 4732 deaths.

    Probably more given that hospitals were already at capacity.

    It's a real moral dilemma but without level 5 it would have been carnage.

    549585.png

    How many times do you need to be told that WE ARE NOT BRAZIL


  • #4723
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,775 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    As a matter of interest, could you outline which parties/politicians in Ireland would have done a better job with the Covid-19 pandemic and why?

    No.

    First, that's highly speculative.

    Second, it's not a competition. What matters is leadership - and that is lacking in the current government irrespective of how other parties would have performed in some parallel universe scenario.

    What I can conclude from the current scenario is that Michael Martin is not a leader, has no leadership qualities - and would presumably suffer an autoimmune reaction if he were ever to develop said qualities.


  • #4724
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Deleted User wrote: »
    No.

    First, that's highly speculative.

    Second, it's not a competition. What matters is leadership - and that is lacking in the current government irrespective of how other parties would have performed in some parallel universe scenario.

    So no opinion other than the government is spineless. Okay. Just to note, on average, Ireland has a mortality rate 40% lower than our nearest neighbours: UK, Portugal, Spain, France, Netherlands and Belgium.


  • #4725
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,995 ✭✭✭Russman


    Deleted User wrote: »
    No.

    First, that's highly speculative.

    Second, it's not a competition. What matters is leadership - and that is lacking in the current government irrespective of how other parties would have performed in some parallel universe scenario.

    What I can conclude from the current scenario is that Michael Martin is not a leader, has no leadership qualities - and would presumably suffer an autoimmune reaction if he were ever to develop said qualities.

    I totally agree that MM isn’t great at all, very poor communicator, but some people will think leadership means disagreeing with and going against NPHET advice, while others might think it means agreeing with them and making very unpopular decisions.


  • #4726
    Banana Republic 1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    NPHET cannot be blamed for public policy. They are an advisory body.

    Public policy is the job of government - ideally implemented by an effective, forward-thinking government with leadership aptitude.

    But it's very difficult to govern when you cannot assemble a collective spine between all ministers in the current government.

    And it's even more difficult to conduct that very necessary spinal rearrangement when you have meager-weak Michael Martin in charge. He comes across as more of a junior minister than anything approximating what we conceive of as Taoiseach.

    He seems weaker only because the leak has constantly briefed against him on top of his normal publicity hound MO.


  • #4727
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    lukas8888 wrote: »
    Explain.

    Well cases only fell 10% during the four weeks schools were reopened, so quite obviously the return resulted in the spring surg.....oh


  • #4728
    Messi19
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 751 ✭✭✭Messi19


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Well cases only fell 10% during the four weeks schools were reopened, so quite obviously the return resulted in the spring surg.....oh

    What did they fall by in the weeks before?


  • #4729
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Sorry to hear of your situation. Hopefully those affected recover quickly.

    You can clearly see the rise and fall pre and post Easter in the relevant age groups (kids and parents of school going kids).

    Of course we are told it's unrelated but it doesn't stand to reason IMO.


    This is most pronounced in 1-4 and 5-14.

    549578.png

    Massive surge from 10 cases per 100k to 14. When all kids in that age group returned to relative normality


  • #4730
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Massive surge from 10 cases per 100k to 14. When all kids in that age group returned to relative normality

    Do you remember when you minimised the exponential growth in October? I do.

    Do you remember when you minimised the exponential growth in December? I do.

    They led to restrictions, jobs and lives.

    By all means don't change now.

    We didn't agree then , we don't agree now. Let's agree to disagree like adults.

    549602.png


  • #4731
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Do you remember when you minimised the exponential growth in October? I do.

    Do you remember when you minimised the exponential growth in December? I do.

    They led to restrictions, jobs and lives.

    By all means don't change now.

    We didn't agree then , we don't agree now. Let's agree to disagree like adults.

    549602.png

    Child


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  • #4732
    robbiezero
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,852 ✭✭✭robbiezero


    Faugheen wrote: »
    NPHET don't test but they made that recommendation in August, when the HSE should have its testing regimes in place. But no, it was typical nonsense from the HSE following the general 'be grand' line instead of actually being ambitious in in expanding its test and trace capacity.

    Look what happened because there was no MHQ as recommended last May. B117 is now rampant.

    People make fun of NPHET about being too cautious but nearly everything they predicted would happen has happened, and that is down to gross negligience from the government.

    Like what?
    They didn't predict the Christmas surge.
    They kept us locked down way too long last summer.
    Putting us into Level 5 in November was a big mistake.
    They didn't predict 4 months of Level 5 lockdown that we are still in and only for vaccinations, I'm not sure we could get out of it at all.
    They have made absolutely no allowances or recommendations for outdoor activities in spite of them being almost no risk.
    They have been bleating about being in a "precarious situation" for the last 6 weeks when we really should have been even slowly opening up some of the outdoor and travel restrictions.
    I'm really not seeing what they have brought to the party at all, and yes I fully accept that the Government have been worse than useless all through it.


  • #4733
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Child

    Call me a child but those are children actually. Going from 10/100K to 16/100K on the chart doesn't seem like much but for the 0-4 cohort that's 330K people.

    So that's a jump from 33 testing positive per day to 53 testing positive PER DAY!

    The more that get infected the more chance of those rare conditions occurring.

    An increase of 60% is not nothing.


  • #4734
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Messi19 wrote: »
    What did they fall by in the weeks before?

    We got in to a position where schools could open relatively safely. And that’s what happened ,things remained stable.

    Spread can happen anywhere people interact. Some are just more important than others. No one has ever claimed no spread ever occurs in school. Otherwise why did they close after Christmas. Some seem to put that argument that no spread occurs in school into the mouths of those with the view that the relative risk at times when cases are low or the epidemiological situation is improving can allow the resumption of some of the most important activities.
    If the sole objective was to stop spread we would have shut down the single biggest contributor to the spread of cases - hospitals.


  • #4735
    TheDoctor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,980 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    Hospital numbers at 8pm

    Total 209 (down from 220 last night)
    ICU 53 (down from 54 last night - no deaths)

    New lowest 8pm total number for 2021.

    Last Thursday
    Total 255
    ICU 61


  • #4736
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Messi19 wrote: »
    How many times do you need to be told that WE ARE NOT BRAZIL

    That's a comparison with a country with no restrictions. You may have missed the original point.

    We could have gone for full employment but could easily have doubled the death count.

    Moral dilemma I know.


  • #4737
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Call me a child but those are children actually. Going from 10 to 16 on the chart doesn't seem like much but for the 0-4 cohort that's 330K people.

    So that's a jump from 33 testing positive per day to 53 testing positive PER DAY!

    The more that get infected the more chance of those rare conditions occurring.

    An increase of 60% is not nothing.

    Yet overall numbers fell 10% in the same time period and hospitalisation by 40%. Out of control.


  • #4738
    Scuid Mhór
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,326 ✭✭✭Scuid Mhór


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Case Numbers

    Over 85s was 2,604 on the 21st of Jan and is just 78 today - a 97% reduction in case levels in the age cohort with nearly half of deaths.

    75-84 has a 94.2% reduction and 65-74 has 91.5%.

    This is incredible.


  • #4739
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Yet overall numbers fell 10% in the same time period and hospitalisation by 40%. Out of control.

    Minimise as you always do. Where have I said out of control?

    The context of these numbers is a massive push to open up.

    400 cases a day is not something that can be controlled easily when the safety valve is released?

    How many waves would need to see this. If we don't approach herd immunity threshold then it will increase ........exponentially.

    Opening up hospitality in December before Christmas was one of the Dumbest things that has ever been done in this country.

    I think a lot more can and should be done outdoors.


  • #4740
    DebDynamite
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,738 ✭✭✭DebDynamite


    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40261202.html

    First hairdressers, now concerts. Talk of this vaccine bonus is really starting to annoy me. We locked down the whole country for nearly a year to protect the vulnerable, and now the vulnerable will be able to live a relatively normal life while the non-vulnerable continue to stay locked down. So much for we’re all in this together!

    Whatever about bringing the vaccine passport/bonus in when every adult has been given the option of a vaccine, it’s grossly unfair to bring it in when only the vulnerable, healthcare workers or well connected people have had access to the vaccine.


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  • #4741
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Minimise as you always do. Where have I said out of control?

    The context of these numbers is a massive push to open up.

    400 cases a day is not something that can be controlled easily when the safety valve is released?

    How many waves would need to see this. If we don't approach herd immunity threshold then it will increase ........exponentially.

    Opening up hospitality in December before Christmas was one of the Dumbest things that has ever been done in this country.

    Like the exponential growth that stopped 3 days after the post you kindly resurrected from October before level 5?


    The fact is though that cases in over 55s fell by 40% between when schools returned and the Easter holidays. Because, in general, community spread was being kept relatively under control. Those most at risk were faced with an improving situation, which has continued to improve.

    If only under 55’s contacted the virus, there would be challenges, but no public health emergency.


This discussion has been closed.
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