COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

PCeeeee · 06-04-2021 04:22PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

In lay mans language what does the above mean?

Study seems to say nearly same amount of people got covid in both groups.

How does confidence intervals negate this or explain it away?

Not being smart, just want to know if i got astra vaccine i had confidence it stopped covid and that i wont spread it.Nothing is 100 per cent but that looks ugly.

The confidence intervals describe the uncertainty of the point estimate. Extremely wide confidence intervals make confidence in the point estimate smaller. The point estimate is the 'headline' number.

That's not to say its wrong. It's just not as statistically certain as one would like. It's an interesting paper but the CI's suggest the sample size was insufficient.

All a single, low powered study like this does is make an observation. Its not definitive.

06-04-2021 04:23PM

LLMMLL wrote: »

When you do a study on a group of people to try and make conclusions about the entire population there is a chance your sample group is not representative of the population.

For example if I wanted to determine the average height of men in Ireland and just picked one man to measure. There’s a reasonable chance I just happen to pick a 6ft 4 guy and it’s completely unrepresentative. If I pick a 100 guys and take an average I probably won’t randomly pick 100 6ft 4 guys but there’s a still a decent chance the group will skew on me way or another.

There are statistical methods for determining based on the size of the group you take your measurements from (and some other factors) the probability that your measurements are representative.

I think the interpretation of a confidence interval of 95% is if you took 100 random samples of the exact same size as in the study, 95 of them would have a measurement within the confidence interval and from that we can assume that the value for the entire population is somewhere within that interval.

So I think the study says 10% protection against SA variant and the interval is 0-40ish so we can conclude if we related the study 100 times the value would 95% of the time fall between 0 and 40 and therefore we believe the value for the entire population is somewhere between 0 and 40.

so your saying the group was too small?

Certainly doesnt prove it is effective against variant which pfzier are claiming and marketing as such.

At best study is saying we have not got a clue.

sure nobody died?

06-04-2021 04:24PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I am the same female and due to get it Friday. I do not want to take it, I can't fimd a way to cancel it either.

Back of the queue, just after the 4 year olds

lbj666 · 06-04-2021 04:26PM

Deleted User wrote: »

so your saying the group was too small?

Certainly doesnt prove it is effective against variant which pfzier are claiming and marketing as such.

At best study is saying we have not got a clue.

sure nobody died?

Who mentioned any thing about pfizer the study discussed is on astra zeneca.

There are plenty studies to suggest the pfizer vacine has good efficacy on the SA variant.

06-04-2021 04:27PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Back of the queue, just after the 4 year olds

I have no problem waiting until my age group, when hopefully there will be more info or it gets pulled for my age group.

Russman · 06-04-2021 04:27PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

If you don't take it that's up to you but don't be surprised if your left until the very end.

Would you left until the very end though ? Like, say, you're in cohort 6 (due to be invited to book online by 19th April), and you just decided to wait 4 or 5 weeks to register on the portal, wouldn't there be a slightly better chance of being allocated one of the other vaccines, with J&J on stream by then and potentially a lot more Pfizer ? Obviously its rolling the dice, but I can't imagine someone being told they were too late and the other cohorts have started so they need to wait til the end.

LLMMLL · 06-04-2021 04:27PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

so your saying the group was too small?

Certainly doesnt prove it is effective against variant which pfzier are claiming and marketing as such.

At best study is saying we have not got a clue.

sure nobody died?

Well not “too” small but small enough that the true value could be anywhere between 0 and 40, with a very small probability that it’s higher.

Not got a clue would mean it could be anywhere between 0 and 100. We do have a clue. Just not a super accurate one.

PCeeeee · 06-04-2021 04:28PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

so your saying the group was too small?

Certainly doesnt prove it is effective against variant which pfzier are claiming and marketing as such.

At best study is saying we have not got a clue.

sure nobody died?

The study is saying look at this interesting thing we've seen.

Others will try to replicate the results. To build on it. That's the way the system works.

crossman47 · 06-04-2021 04:28PM

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't know what to do now. Talked to a guy in biotech who knows his stuff and he said AZ was fine but we've stories about it every week.
I'm expecting to get a call before the end of the month to go for a vaccine shot. My wife is due to get hers on Friday and it's AZ. She doesn't want to take it, I don't want it.
I'm willing to risk going without it at this stage until I have a choice or get offered a vaccine I'm happy to take.
Surely it won't be too long before you can pay for the vaccine of your choice?

You're taking a much bigger risk by going without is all I can say.

06-04-2021 04:28PM

lbj666 wrote: »

Who mentioned any thing about pfizer this the study discussed is on astra zeneca.

There is plenty studies to suggest the pfizer vacine has good efficacy on the SA variant.

I mentioned it if that is allowed. Didnt realise i was on the astra vaccine thread?

people are going to compare vaccines. Too much noise around astra for that not to be the case?

lbj666 · 06-04-2021 04:32PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I mentioned it if that is allowed. Didnt realise i was on the astra vaccine thread?

Misread you

Corholio · 06-04-2021 04:36PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I mentioned it if that is allowed. Didnt realise i was on the astra vaccine thread?

people are going to compare vaccines. Too much noise around astra for that not to be the case?

The study was for Astra, you mentioned Pfizer, who have their own studies etc. Their 'marketing' is based on those, not on a delicate study from a different vaccine maker.

Icantthinkof1 · 06-04-2021 04:36PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I am the same female and due to get it Friday. I do not want to take it, I can't fimd a way to cancel it either.

Could you contact the HSE helpline they might be able to give you the necessary contact details to cancel

lbj666 · 06-04-2021 04:39PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I am the same female and due to get it Friday. I do not want to take it, I can't fimd a way to cancel it either.

Mentioned already a few days ago, but even if the findings on Astra Zeneca shorten the odds of serious effects for a specific grouping the odds are still going to be nowhere near the odds of contracting the virus(which will be less avoidable in the months ahead) and have serious complications due to having an unlying asthma condition.

06-04-2021 04:43PM

lbj666 wrote: »

Misread you

Grand.

LLMMLL · 06-04-2021 04:44PM

lbj666 wrote: »

Mentioned already a few days ago, but even if the findings on Astra Zeneca shorten the odds of serious effects for a specific grouping the odds are still going to be nowhere near the odds of contracting the virus(which will be less avoidable in the months ahead) and have serious complications due to having an unlying asthma condition.

Yeah there’s a decent chance we will do a Chile when we reopen and numbers will rise making COVID a lot harder to avoid than it has been the last few months.

higster · 06-04-2021 04:46PM

Just out of raddison center in limerick. Was quite. Very quite. Put in perspective maybe 12 check in desks, say 6 open and never saw more then 2 with someone checking in at one time. I saw 4 of about 20 vaccine cubes in use as walked through (all had medical people in them waiting) Same on “the other side” where wait for 15 mins observation. Saw max 7people there (arriving waiting leaving) the 15 mins I was there.

I’m assuming it’s people not showing up as is AZ vaccine. I do stand to be corrected and may be just have enough vaccines for that quantity of people.

I think it’s people not showing, there were just too many people standing around waiting to vaccinate people. If it’s is the case, I think this is madness.

Ok, AZ probably not as good as Pfizer. But “it’s good enough” at the very least and gives protection. I’m taking this any day vs the hope I’ll get Pfizer later (and it is a hope, more likely to be AZ or J&J one which from what I can tell are very similar all be it only one dose with the J&J one). Would I prefer Pfizer, yes. Am I going to take a bet on a possibility of getting it later (and will be much later by time all 2nd doses are done) vs AZ one now, hell no. Bird in the hand and all that.

What’s bugging me is that because people are not getting the AZ vaccine that is available this whole lock down scenario will keep on going (case numbers up, deaths up blah blah blah).

PS 4 hrs later, zero side effects.
PPS I don’t see a private/your choice on what vaccine for quite some time. Next year sometime I’m thinking if even then.
PPPS flu vaccines going on for years. Not 100% same but still, all had potential side effects, all have % effective (none 100%, from what I remember mostly <50%), and none could cover all variants of the flu (of which people died from, not to same extent as COVID obviously). And did people care...no...because there was no media hype.

Rant over.

funnydoggy · 06-04-2021 04:46PM

LLMMLL wrote: »

Yeah there’s a decent chance we will do a Chile when we reopen and numbers will rise making COVID a lot harder to avoid than it has been the last few months.

Can I borrow your crystal ball? Want to do the lotto.

lbj666 · 06-04-2021 04:51PM

higster wrote: »

Just out of raddison center in limerick. Was quite. Very quite. Put in perspective maybe 12 check in desks, say 6 open and never saw more then 2 with someone checking in at one time. I saw 4 of about 20 vaccine cubes in use as walked through (all had medical people in them waiting) Same on “the other side” where wait for 15 mins observation. Saw max 7people there (arriving waiting leaving) the 15 mins I was there.

I’m assuming it’s people not showing up as is AZ vaccine. I do stand to be corrected and may be just have enough vaccines for that quantity of people.

I think it’s people not showing, there were just too many people standing around waiting to vaccinate people. If it’s is the case, I think this is madness.

Ok, AZ probably not as good as Pfizer. But “it’s good enough” at the very least and gives protection. I’m taking this any day vs the hope I’ll get Pfizer later (and it is a hope, more likely to be AZ or J&J one which from what I can tell are very similar all be it only one dose with the J&J one). Would I prefer Pfizer, yes. Am I going to take a bet on a possibility of getting it later (and will be much later by time all 2nd doses are done) vs AZ one now, hell no. Bird in the hand and all that.

Ps 4 hrs later, zero side effects.

Its cause the vaccine centre has be set up for a capacity far more than the supply it is getting at the minute.

Very little to do with people turning down AZ vacines, its a pretty sensationalist assertion to be honest.

LLMMLL · 06-04-2021 04:52PM

funnydoggy wrote: »

Can I borrow your crystal ball? Want to do the lotto.

No need for the tone. I’d be the first to admit it’s far from certain. There are no certainties with vaccination strategies and reopening.

But there are two models right now for highly vaccinated countries reopening. Chile and Israel. One amazing, one terrible.

We could be either or we could be in between.

But highlighting the fact that covid MAY be at significantly higher levels in the next few months to someone with asthma who is planning on waiting to get the vaccine isn’t really worthy of snark is it?

06-04-2021 04:53PM

higster wrote: »

Just out of raddison center in limerick. Was quite. Very quite. Put in perspective maybe 12 check in desks, say 6 open and never saw more then 2 with someone checking in at one time. I saw 4 of about 20 vaccine cubes in use as walked through (all had medical people in them waiting) Same on “the other side” where wait for 15 mins observation. Saw max 7people there (arriving waiting leaving) the 15 mins I was there.

I’m assuming it’s people not showing up as is AZ vaccine. I do stand to be corrected and may be just have enough vaccines for that quantity of people.

I think it’s people not showing, there were just too many people standing around waiting to vaccinate people. If it’s is the case, I think this is madness.

Ok, AZ probably not as good as Pfizer. But “it’s good enough” at the very least and gives protection. I’m taking this any day vs the hope I’ll get Pfizer later (and it is a hope, more likely to be AZ or J&J one which from what I can tell are very similar all be it only one dose with the J&J one). Would I prefer Pfizer, yes. Am I going to take a bet on a possibility of getting it later (and will be much later by time all 2nd doses are done) vs AZ one now, hell no. Bird in the hand and all that.

Ps 4 hrs later, zero side effects.

Are you male or female? No problem if you do not want to answer. My husband is getting his Thursday and I have no worries about that. I am worried about it getting pulled for my age group a few days/ weeks after I get it amd being left in limbo or a mixed second dose.

LLMMLL · 06-04-2021 04:58PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Are you male or female? No problem if you do not want to answer. My husband is getting his Thursday and I have no worries about that. I am worried about it getting pulled for my age group a few days/ weeks after I get it amd being left in limbo or a mixed second dose.

Plenty of younger women in Beaumont vaccination centre today.

Turtwig · 06-04-2021 05:00PM

The fact you've been offered the vaccine now means the HSE considers you an individual very likely to be hospitalised due to COVID. You really need to discuss your concerns with your gp or your consultant. Folks on the Internet can't advise you.

If you do decide you're not taking the vaccine please give adequate notice so somebody can easily take your spot without too much hassle.

Corholio · 06-04-2021 05:01PM

LLMMLL wrote: »

No need for the tone. I’d be the first to admit it’s far from certain. There are no certainties with vaccination strategies and reopening.

But there are two models right now for highly vaccinated countries reopening. Chile and Israel. One amazing, one terrible.

We could be either or we chould be in between.

But highlighting the fact that covid MAY be at significantly higher levels in the next few months to someone with asthma who is planning on waiting to get the vaccine isn’t really worthy of snark is it?

I think the Sinovac vaccine use in Chile element also has to be factored in, I don't think they have released final phase data of their trials yet, while only having around 50% efficacy in previous ones. It does seem a mixture of things in Chile that has caused problems. I always think country to country comparison, especially across other side of the world isn't a great metric yet.

higster · 06-04-2021 05:01PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Are you male or female? No problem if you do not want to answer. My husband is getting his Thursday and I have no worries about that. I am worried about it getting pulled for my age group a few days/ weeks after I get it amd being left in limbo or a mixed second dose.

I’m a male type 2 diabetic. My daughter came with me, asthma, 18yrs old. Both got text exactly the same time. She wanted it done as doing leaving cert and didn’t want COVID to mess that up (she has worked damn hard all year and didn’t want the risk of being sick with COVID (vs what she believes a lot lower risk of side effects). Couldn’t get there fast enough and I made her read the risks (and this thread).

Thought your husband said didn’t want it either. Sincere apologies if I picked that up wrong.

But each person does need to make there own choices, understand that.

06-04-2021 05:07PM

Turtwig wrote: »

The fact you've been offered the vaccine now means the HSE considers you an individual very likely to be hospitalised due to COVID. You really need to discuss your concerns with your gp or your consultant. Folks on the Internet can't advise you.

If you do decide you're not taking the vaccine please give adequate notice so somebody can easily take your spot without too much hassle.

I am aiming to have my final decision by the morning so I can try to make contact, I do not know who to contact but soneone suggested hse live. I might ring my gp in the morning.

higster · 06-04-2021 05:07PM

lbj666 wrote: »

Its cause the vaccine centre has be set up for a capacity far more than the supply it is getting at the minute.

Very little to do with people turning down AZ vacines, its a pretty sensationalist assertion to be honest.

Great if correct. Apologies all round if wrong and yeah can see how that would be sensationalist.

But What makes you think this?

What made me think was people not showing as saw list of names (couldn’t read aes, but could see yes/no/na beside names...easily 80% were na or no). I didn’t mention it in original post as I am going to look like a right noisey dickhead (on top of sensationalist, gulp) but anyhow...maybe I got the wrong end of the stick there as well. Also, didn’t feel like medical people were hanging around. All cubes looked like they were looking for customers (I could have gone into any cube from what I can tell which I presumed meant they all had vaccine).

06-04-2021 05:07PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Are you male or female? No problem if you do not want to answer. My husband is getting his Thursday and I have no worries about that. I am worried about it getting pulled for my age group a few days/ weeks after I get it amd being left in limbo or a mixed second dose.

That is a perfectly valid concern, I'm also worried about taking AZ as a relatively young woman. Comments like "get to the back of the queue" are extremely unhelpful and short-sighted when there is clearly a safety issue here for women.

I do think that for someone with an underlying condition, the risk of covid is greater than the risk from the AZ vaccine, so in your case it makes sense to take it. However you could try ringing the HSE Live number or your GP, explain your concerns and ask if you can be booked in for a Pfizer vaccine at another time. It might not be possible, but you never know if you don't ask.

06-04-2021 05:10PM

higster wrote: »

I’m a male type 2 diabetic. My daughter came with me, asthma, 18yrs old. Both got text exactly the same time. She wanted it done as doing leaving cert and didn’t want COVID to mess that up (she has worked damn hard all year and didn’t want the risk of being sick with COVID (vs what she believes a lot lower risk of side effects). Couldn’t get there fast enough and I made her read the risks (and this thread).

Thought your husband said didn’t want it either. Sincere apologies if I picked that up wrong.

But each person does need to make there own choices, understand that.

Thanks for the reply. Best of luck to your daughter in the leaving cert. Glad you are both feeling well, it is good to hear some people don't have side effects.

lbj666 · 06-04-2021 05:12PM

higster wrote: »

Great if correct. Apologies all round if wrong and yeah can see how that would be sensationalist.

But What makes you think this?

What made me think was people not showing as saw list of names (couldn’t read aes, but could see yes/no/na beside names...easily 80% were na or no). I didn’t mention it in original post as I am going to look like a right noisey dickhead (on top of sensationalist, gulp) but anyhow...maybe I got thee wrong end of the stick there as well.

I cant speculate and i would be shocked there was 80% no shows without there being another explanation such as a double booking with another centre or delivery not arriving leading to cancellations.
There is also a very big difference between N/A or no.