COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

stephenjmcd · 06-04-2021 02:26PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

New study published about AZ being next to useless against South African variant

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/03/17/astrazeneca-vaccine-fails-to-protect-against-the-south-african-variant/?sh=6a6560ca6526

Not a new study and has been discussed in the thread numerous times with regards to the failings of said study

ACitizenErased · 06-04-2021 02:26PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

New study published about AZ being next to useless against South African variant

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/03/17/astrazeneca-vaccine-fails-to-protect-against-the-south-african-variant/?sh=6a6560ca6526

Thats not a new study, it’s the one with the humongous confidence intervals

ACitizenErased · 06-04-2021 02:42PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

If wouldn’t have then passed peer review and posted in one of the more prestigious papers

———

Two doses of the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine were found to have only a 10.4% efficacy against mild-to-moderate infections caused by the B.1.351 South Africa variant, according to a phase 1b-2 clinical trial published on Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine.

The fact it states that there's a possibility the vaccine has an efficacy of -40% is enough for me to ignore it

nocoverart · 06-04-2021 02:45PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

New study published about AZ being next to useless against South African variant

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/03/17/astrazeneca-vaccine-fails-to-protect-against-the-south-african-variant/?sh=6a6560ca6526

Neigh! You’re a bad horsey.

lucernarian · 06-04-2021 02:47PM

I've had to stay away from Boards lately, some of the threads even on this forum have been too much to read through. A lot of toxicity and negativity elsewhere. Might just stick to reading and posting here.

JTMan · 06-04-2021 02:47PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

What mistake ??

I have seen multiple government documents, post December, that referred to the rollout as being "18+" or "adults" rather than "16+". Anyways, glad it is now clear, but I would guess that 16 and 17 year olds will need to be placed in a group of their own due to the likely parental consent requirement.

Stark · 06-04-2021 02:49PM

Don't think we had vaccines approved for 16-17 year olds earlier in the year. Now we do.

JTMan · 06-04-2021 02:51PM

Stark wrote: »

Don't think we had vaccines approved for 16-17 year olds earlier in the year. Now we do.

We did, the EMA approved BioNTech/Pfizer for 16+ in December 2020. It was also known for some time that BioNTech/Pfizer were going to seek approval for 16+.

emrys · 06-04-2021 02:56PM

Irish Stones wrote: »

I would like to compliment with you for your excellent understanding of my language!

Italian mother..!

shoppergal · 06-04-2021 02:57PM

Deenie78 wrote: »

I had a quick question about the second dose of Pfizer - does anyone know someone who has had their second jab and if so, was there any ill effects? My Dad's due to get his on Thursday and is only just out of hospital after having an infection, I'm hoping it doesn't set him back. Thanks in advance

My dad had his second dose last Friday. He had chemotherapy Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and the vaccine on Friday and thankfully no ill effects.

ixoy · 06-04-2021 03:00PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I like how resident medical experts are dismissing peer reviewed and published scientific paper showing in a trial that AZ is rubbish against the South African variant, an over glorified placebo which could lead to vaccine scepticism

So if you do accept the published report (which is still open to peer review) then you accept that it is 100% effective against serious Covid, which is good for a placebo.

Deeper Blue · 06-04-2021 03:00PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Wishful thinking doesn’t increase vaccine efficacy for likes of AZ

I like how resident medical experts are dismissing peer reviewed and published scientific paper showing in a trial that AZ is rubbish against the South African variant, an over glorified placebo which could lead to vaccine scepticism

Anyone with even a vague idea about stats and confidence intervals can see that it's impossible to draw meaningful conclusions from that study.

That's before we even mention the dosing intervals used.

I don't care where it's published.

MerlinSouthDub · 06-04-2021 03:18PM

From this site - https://covid-vaccinatie.be/en/doses-delivered - I see that Belgium got their biggest delivery yet from Pfizer yesterday - 267,930 doses. This should be about 110,000 doses for us.

Going to be a busy week in GP practices and vaccination centres!

eagle eye · 06-04-2021 03:41PM

I don't know what to do now. Talked to a guy in biotech who knows his stuff and he said AZ was fine but we've stories about it every week.
I'm expecting to get a call before the end of the month to go for a vaccine shot. My wife is due to get hers on Friday and it's AZ. She doesn't want to take it, I don't want it.
I'm willing to risk going without it at this stage until I have a choice or get offered a vaccine I'm happy to take.
Surely it won't be too long before you can pay for the vaccine of your choice?

Gael23 · 06-04-2021 03:42PM

How are they progressing through group 4 do we know?

PCeeeee · 06-04-2021 03:47PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Wishful thinking doesn’t increase vaccine efficacy for likes of AZ

I like how resident medical experts are dismissing peer reviewed and published scientific paper showing in a trial that AZ is rubbish against the South African variant, an over glorified placebo which could lead to vaccine scepticism

Do you deny there are large confidence intervals quoted in the study and can you explain what that means?

eagle eye · 06-04-2021 03:50PM

PCeeeee wrote:

Do you deny there are large confidence intervals quoted in the study and can you explain what that means?

Are you denying that it's been peer reviewed?

KrustyUCC · 06-04-2021 03:52PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

From this site - https://covid-vaccinatie.be/en/doses-delivered - I see that Belgium got their biggest delivery yet from Pfizer yesterday - 267,930 doses. This should be about 110,000 doses for us.

Going to be a busy week in GP practices and vaccination centres!

That would be great to see

ShyMets · 06-04-2021 03:53PM

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't know what to do now. Talked to a guy in biotech who knows his stuff and he said AZ was fine but we've stories about it every week.
I'm expecting to get a call before the end of the month to go for a vaccine shot. My wife is due to get hers on Friday and it's AZ. She doesn't want to take it, I don't want it.
I'm willing to risk going without it at this stage until I have a choice or get offered a vaccine I'm happy to take.
Surely it won't be too long before you can pay for the vaccine of your choice?

Was it the same guy that told you before Christmas that ivermectin was the miracle cure that was going to end the pandemic in weeks.

eagle eye · 06-04-2021 03:56PM

ShyMets wrote:

Was it the same guy that told you before Christmas that ivermectin was the miracle cure that was going to end the pandemic in weeks.

No.

PCeeeee · 06-04-2021 03:58PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Are you denying that it's been peer reviewed?

It was published in a reputable journal. I am making the not unreasonable assumption it was reviewed. Why do you ask?

stephenjmcd · 06-04-2021 04:01PM

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't know what to do now. Talked to a guy in biotech who knows his stuff and he said AZ was fine but we've stories about it every week.
I'm expecting to get a call before the end of the month to go for a vaccine shot. My wife is due to get hers on Friday and it's AZ. She doesn't want to take it, I don't want it.
I'm willing to risk going without it at this stage until I have a choice or get offered a vaccine I'm happy to take.
Surely it won't be too long before you can pay for the vaccine of your choice?

"How long before you can pay for the vaccine of your choice".... how long is a piece of string. Chances are you won't be able to for a very long time. Pfizer etc only dealing with governments. There's no way to pick and choose what you want, too many different processes in terms of storage and administration for you to have a choice, there would be so much wastage.

If you don't take it that's up to you but don't be surprised if your left until the very end.

It's an effective vaccine why would you refuse it ?

06-04-2021 04:03PM

PCeeeee wrote: »

Do you deny there are large confidence intervals quoted in the study and can you explain what that means?

In lay mans language what does the above mean?

Study seems to say nearly same amount of people got covid in both groups.

How does confidence intervals negate this or explain it away?

Not being smart, just want to know if i got astra vaccine i had confidence it stopped covid and that i wont spread it.Nothing is 100 per cent but that looks ugly.

stephenjmcd · 06-04-2021 04:04PM

ShyMets wrote: »

Was it the same guy that told you before Christmas that ivermectin was the miracle cure that was going to end the pandemic in weeks.

That's aged well

LLMMLL · 06-04-2021 04:05PM

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't know what to do now. Talked to a guy in biotech who knows his stuff and he said AZ was fine but we've stories about it every week.
I'm expecting to get a call before the end of the month to go for a vaccine shot. My wife is due to get hers on Friday and it's AZ. She doesn't want to take it, I don't want it.
I'm willing to risk going without it at this stage until I have a choice or get offered a vaccine I'm happy to take.
Surely it won't be too long before you can pay for the vaccine of your choice?

Very unpredictable but I would say it’ll be a loooooong time before you are offered a choice or be able to pay.

They’ll want to make sure supplies of AZ are not just thrown out, which is what will happen if people have a choice.

And the government have a monopoly on supply for the foreseeable. So you won’t be able to pay for it.

Stark · 06-04-2021 04:07PM

Yeah I reckon even when everyone in Ireland is done, surplus supplies that arrive after that will go to Covax. I do imagine though that when the variants arrive, people who were inoculated with AZ will be given a booster of one of the other vaccines.

ixoy · 06-04-2021 04:07PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Not being smart, just want to know if i got astra vaccine i had confidence it stopped covid and that i wont spread it.Nothing is 100 per cent but that looks ugly.

Even taking the study at face value, it's very effective against the B.117 variant which is predominant here and the one right now you're most likely to get in Ireland.

06-04-2021 04:12PM

ixoy wrote: »

Even taking the study at face value, it's very effective against the B.117 variant which is predominant here and the one right now you're most likely to get in Ireland.

Heard that alright.

LLMMLL · 06-04-2021 04:13PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

In lay mans language what does the above mean?

Study seems to say nearly same amount of people got covid in both groups.

How does confidence intervals negate this or explain it away?

Not being smart, just want to know if i got astra vaccine i had confidence it stopped covid and that i wont spread it.Nothing is 100 per cent but that looks ugly.

When you do a study on a group of people to try and make conclusions about the entire population there is a chance your sample group is not representative of the population.

For example if I wanted to determine the average height of men in Ireland and just picked one man to measure. There’s a reasonable chance I just happen to pick a 6ft 4 guy and it’s completely unrepresentative. If I pick a 100 guys and take an average I probably won’t randomly pick 100 6ft 4 guys but there’s a still a decent chance the group will skew on me way or another.

There are statistical methods for determining based on the size of the group you take your measurements from (and some other factors) the probability that your measurements are representative.

I think the interpretation of a confidence interval of 95% is if you took 100 random samples of the exact same size as in the study, 95 of them would have a measurement within the confidence interval and from that we can assume that the value for the entire population is somewhere within that interval.

So I think the study says 10% protection against SA variant and the interval is 0-40ish so we can conclude if we related the study 100 times the value would 95% of the time fall between 0 and 40 and therefore we believe the value for the entire population is somewhere between 0 and 40.

06-04-2021 04:18PM

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't know what to do now. Talked to a guy in biotech who knows his stuff and he said AZ was fine but we've stories about it every week.
I'm expecting to get a call before the end of the month to go for a vaccine shot. My wife is due to get hers on Friday and it's AZ. She doesn't want to take it, I don't want it.
I'm willing to risk going without it at this stage until I have a choice or get offered a vaccine I'm happy to take.
Surely it won't be too long before you can pay for the vaccine of your choice?

I am the same female and due to get it Friday. I do not want to take it, I can't fimd a way to cancel it either.

COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

Comments