COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

irishlad. · 05-04-2021 10:45PM

josip wrote: »

Any nice infographics from Rachel this time around that can be shared?
Or even the text of the article?

https://twitter.com/ElaineByrne/status/1379106473318440967

Apogee · 05-04-2021 10:50PM

hmmm wrote: »

This was posted on the other thread. See the slide at 5 minutes in. "By the middle of May, most adults will have had their first dose".

He also lays out a timetable for reopening. Note the line "additional measures for the fully vaccinated" in May - I predict controversy

https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1379060977518395399?s=19

This is his slide on vaccine supply but the source is not clear, so hard to know how reliable these projections are.

Eyeballing them:
April 900K
May 1,250K
June 1,750K
Total of 3.9M (average of 1.3M per month)

That fits with the number of doses required to reach 80% population having had dose 1 at end of June.

irishlad. · 05-04-2021 10:50PM

BlondeBomb wrote: »

Just on that, I had over 70s at close to 50% having a first dose.

Going of this spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1cUZy6AMCwuA2zhtRuKK7cqMVgmhdDsGsZrFWJTkw9DY/htmlview#

Cohort 3 is everyone over 70, not just 70 - 79

washman3 · 05-04-2021 11:03PM

Anybody got a reasonably accurate figure of how many people were vaccinated over Saturday, Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday.?

stephenjmcd · 05-04-2021 11:07PM

washman3 wrote: »

Anybody got a reasonably accurate figure of how many people were vaccinated over Saturday, Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday.?

Nobody will know that until tomorrow, Wednesday & Thursday when the numbers are reported and even at that are liable to increase in the days after when all data is added

Dickie10 · 05-04-2021 11:30PM

Hard to see how they can keep pubs shut until after mid June if 80% of adults are at least one shot got.

eoinbn · 05-04-2021 11:54PM

VonLuck wrote: »

They have 10 days to vaccinate the remaining people left in the 70-79 bracket. According to the dashboard there are about 91,000 remaining out of the over 70's (including the last 5 or so percent of over 80's) left to get their first dose. Assume they continue at Friday's vaccination rate of 30,000, that will take 3 days to administer the remainder of Cohort 3.

That of course is overly simplified and there will be second doses and other groups mixed in with that but I don't see why mid-April couldn't be targeted.

Massively over simplified.
There is far more than 90k.
We won't have enough to sustain 30k for long.
The big bump from BioNtech will likely be the week of the 19th. That week will likely clear 95% of the over 70s.
Second dose could be given 3 weeks later which would be the middle of May.

eagle eye · 06-04-2021 01:38AM

Dickie10 wrote:

Hard to see how they can keep pubs shut until after mid June if 80% of adults are at least one shot got.

Why are the pubs so important? Do you not have a social life outside of pubs?

Azatadine · 06-04-2021 06:19AM

Wow!
.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1379222824829788162?s=19

Wanderer78 · 06-04-2021 06:29AM

Dickie10 wrote:

Hard to see how they can keep pubs shut until after mid June if 80% of adults are at least one shot got.

80% by june! Hahahahahaha, yea right!

06-04-2021 07:13AM

hmmm wrote: »

This was posted on the other thread. See the slide at 5 minutes in. "By the middle of May, most adults will have had their first dose".

He also lays out a timetable for reopening. Note the line "additional measures for the fully vaccinated" in May - I predict controversy

Anti-vaxxers at the ready!

Pubs open for the vaccinated???!!

eoinbn · 06-04-2021 07:37AM

Dickie10 wrote: »

Hard to see how they can keep pubs shut until after mid June if 80% of adults are at least one shot got.

In many pubs the majority are 35 or under. Many of the 35 and over will just recently have been vaccinated and will have little to no response to the vaccine.
The UK will be a good guide on what, and what not, to do regarding hospitality.

Wanderer78 · 06-04-2021 08:09AM

eoinbn wrote: »

In many pubs the majority are 35 or under. Many of the 35 and over will just recently have been vaccinated and will have little to no response to the vaccine.
The UK will be a good guide on what, and what not, to do regarding hospitality.

at our current rates, most 35 year olds wont be vaxed by late summer

is_that_so · 06-04-2021 08:11AM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

at our current rates, most 35 year olds wont be vaxed by late summer

Rates of vaccination are expected to increase substantially.

Wanderer78 · 06-04-2021 08:12AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Rates of vaccination are expected to increase substantially.

oh i understand that alright, but i suspect theyre being a tad bit optimistic there

vienne86 · 06-04-2021 08:34AM

irishlad. wrote: »

Cohort 3 is everyone over 70, not just 70 - 79

Yes, there are just under 500K aged 70+, and 263K in Cohort 3 have had at least 1 dose.

PhoenixParker · 06-04-2021 08:58AM

For anyone interested:

Estimated Population (Persons in April) 2020 70 - 74 years Both sexes State Thousand 190.8
Estimated Population (Persons in April) 2020 75 - 79 years Both sexes State Thousand 134.1
Estimated Population (Persons in April) 2020 80 - 84 years Both sexes State Thousand 89.8
Estimated Population (Persons in April) 2020 85 years and over Both sexes State Thousand 81.2

Total E496k

Table PEA04 here:

https://data.cso.ie/table/PEA04

(CSO data)

Jane1012 · 06-04-2021 09:01AM

vienne86 wrote: »

Yes, there are just under 500K aged 70+, and 263K in Cohort 3 have had at least 1 dose.

Would a certain amount of those not have been covered in cohort 1 in nursing homes? So maybe reducing the figure by 80k? (I’ve made that number up, but just to show an example)

Living Off The Splash · 06-04-2021 09:03AM

Leo is talking about a green passport for those fully vaccinated. I assume fully vaccinated means two jabs of the Pfizer or AZ.

Unfortunately the time between vaccinations for the AZ vaccine is up to 4 months wait. Long time to wait for your "passport".

is_that_so · 06-04-2021 09:06AM

Living Off The Splash wrote: »

Leo is talking about a green passport for those fully vaccinated. I assume fully vaccinated means two jabs of the Pfizer or AZ.

Unfortunately the time between vaccinations for the AZ vaccine is up to 4 months wait. Long time to wait for your "passport".

The EU are working on it and Spain seem to think it will be ready in June so it's to give the impression of working on it too.

PhoenixParker · 06-04-2021 09:17AM

Living Off The Splash wrote: »

Leo is talking about a green passport for those fully vaccinated. I assume fully vaccinated means two jabs of the Pfizer or AZ.

Unfortunately the time between vaccinations for the AZ vaccine is up to 4 months wait. Long time to wait for your "passport".

You can get a passport if you get a negative test too, presumably it's a temporary passport of some description so not being fully vaccinated isn't a barrier to travel.

I think they'll start from the position that two jabs are necessary but very quickly be forced to move to the position that being two weeks out from your first jab is enough. Reality is you're well protected at that point and there'll have to be some mechanism to issue temporary passports (based on negative tests), so issuing a short validity passport on a single jab should be feasible too.

vienne86 · 06-04-2021 09:22AM

Jane1012 wrote: »

Would a certain amount of those not have been covered in cohort 1 in nursing homes? So maybe reducing the figure by 80k? (I’ve made that number up, but just to show an example)

For sure......I would have thought 25K in congregated settings......just guessing.

Mark1916 · 06-04-2021 10:00AM

https://twitter.com/forexlive/status/1379354946487914498?s=21

Rebelbrowser · 06-04-2021 10:06AM

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

I think conversations like this is another plus point to the age-based approach. There'll be less "what about that subsection of a priority group. surely they don't merit special treatment."

100%. It's why they changed the order. By category 13, before the mega 16 to 54 cohort, you had a sweep up category of people in jobs important to society's functioning or something like that. How the hell do you decide who goes in there? It would certainly have included lawyers (some of whom have unavoidable contact work as part of litigation, litigation being an essential service - but most of whom are completely desk bound) and other equally "popular" professions. Government saw there was a ****fest coming and did the right thing in moving to a 100% transparent (age based) system.

is_that_so · 06-04-2021 10:07AM

Mark1916 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/forexlive/status/1379354946487914498?s=21

But still projections contingent on supply. We still need to see what this quarter brings, including curveballs.

Irish Stones · 06-04-2021 10:14AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Rates of vaccination are expected to increase substantially.

This has been said for a few months now. Productions will ramp up, vaccination rates are expected to increase, an so on, and after over 3 months we're still at 5%.
End of January it was 0.5% on EU average.
End of February it was 2.2%.
End of March it was 4.5%.
End of April it may be 6.5-7.0%.

Well, I don't see this improvement

is_that_so · 06-04-2021 10:17AM

Irish Stones wrote: »

This has been said for a few months now. Productions will ramp up, vaccination rates are expected to increase, an so on, and after over 3 months we're still at 5%.
End of January it was 0.5% on EU average.
End of February it was 2.2%.
End of March it was 4.5%.
End of April it may be 6.5-7.0%.

Well, I don't see this improvement

Nobody really does, this month is where it supposedly starts. It'll be good news for everyone if/when it does.

JDD · 06-04-2021 10:21AM

Just wondering, weren't we supposed to get a massive delivery of vaccines on 31 March, or a day or two after that? I remember both Paul Reid and Stephen Donnelly mentioning it at the end of February. Has that large delivery arrived?

is_that_so · 06-04-2021 10:24AM

JDD wrote: »

Just wondering, weren't we supposed to get a massive delivery of vaccines on 31 March, or a day or two after that? I remember both Paul Reid and Stephen Donnelly mentioning it at the end of February. Has that large delivery arrived?

Yeah, about 100K of it - last Thursday I believe.

josip · 06-04-2021 10:29AM

JDD wrote: »

Just wondering, weren't we supposed to get a massive delivery of vaccines on 31 March, or a day or two after that? I remember both Paul Reid and Stephen Donnelly mentioning it at the end of February. Has that large delivery arrived?

Yes they arrived, the revised AZ Q1 doses.

COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

Comments