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How long before Irish reunification? (Part 2) Threadbans in OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 10,117 ✭✭✭✭Junkyard Tom


    You know I'd say Republican dissidents would be delighted if Unionists kicked off as it would just isolate Unionism even further and increase the non-unionist electorate. It's around 30% of the population who self identify as Unionist now? That would probably drop to 20% after a couple of innocent Catholics got murdered by Unionists.

    It would also underscore the dysfunction of a failed unionist enclave and focus minds on bringing it to an end.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,653 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    You know I'd say Republican dissidents would be delighted if Unionists kicked off as it would just isolate Unionism even further and increase the non-unionist electorate. It's around 30% of the population who self identify as Unionist now? That would probably drop to 20% after a couple of innocent Catholics got murdered by Unionists.

    It would also underscore the dysfunction of a failed unionist enclave and focus minds on bringing it to an end.

    I obviously disagree with your figures, but I agree that loyalist violence would have exactly the same negative impact on unionist objectives as the IRA violence had on republican objectives


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71,051 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    schmittel wrote: »
    They don't need or wish to be too vocal other than ticking the box marked NO in the referendum. That's kind of the point.

    So your point is this demographic will remain silent until they get into the ballot box but somehow they have been vocal enough for you to work out they are a 'majority'? Amazing.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71,051 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    downcow wrote: »
    Peter Robinson is often flagged up on this thread as someone who is forward thinking and has his finger on the pulse. He was lauded on here by Republicans when he suggested that unionists should be preparing for a border poll. Well I completely disagree with him on that issue, but his article today in the newsletter does, I believe, catch the mood of the moment in the unionist community.
    The link is below, two comments of note are:

    "It would be wrong to assume that in time unionists will calm down and eventually acquiesce. That is not my assessment.
    We are perilously close to a line which, when crossed, will lock us all into a pattern all too familiar to my generation.
    The genie will not easily be squeezed back into the bottle."

    "There are forces using the exigencies of Brexit to advance a programme of constitutional change through stealth and propaganda.
    My advice to those who are driving this agenda forward is as short as it is restrained.
    Take care."


    I got fairly well rounded upon for saying something very similar the last few weeks

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/peter-robinson-unionists-are-more-alienated-than-i-have-seen-at-any-time-in-my-50-years-in-politics-3179294

    Who is using 'stealth'?

    It is entirely open and transparent.


  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,242 ✭✭✭hometruths


    So your point is this demographic will remain silent until they get into the ballot box but somehow they have been vocal enough for you to work out they are a 'majority'? Amazing.

    By silent I mean that they never mention it as a priority compared to things like health, housing, economy etc. So I have worked out that these things are more important and as things stand right now a UI is likely to compound these concerns.

    What evidence have you seen that makes you believe a vote on a United Ireland would be carried down here?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    jh79 wrote: »
    Drops to 30% if it involves an increase in taxes. So in no way a formality.

    Good thing tax implications aren't put on the ballot.

    Nice to see were starting this Godforsaken journey again.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71,051 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    schmittel wrote: »
    By silent I mean that they never mention it as a priority compared to things like health, housing, economy etc. So I have worked out that these things are more important and as things stand right now a UI is likely to compound these concerns.
    You aren't explaining how you think they are a 'majority'?
    What evidence have you seen that makes you believe a vote on a United Ireland would be carried down here?

    I haven't made a claim like that.

    I think that if a UI is couched as an investment that we will vote for it. I base that on the visible pride we have in the foundation of this state and the fact that constitutionally we aspire to a UI, something an overwhelming majority voted to put in the constitution. There is also the ancillary evidence that not a single political party is against a UI, nor will be. Politics reflects the people and in this case the fact that n political party or TD has emerged to present this 'silent majority' you talk about suggests it doesn't exist.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,310 ✭✭✭jh79


    Good thing tax implications aren't put on the ballot.

    Nice to see were starting this Godforsaken journey again.

    It's gonna be part of the discussion like it or not. Will be interesting to see the estimates of what the % is likely to be.

    All needling aside, the trends suggest cost will have an impact on voting patterns, the question in that poll was too general to draw any other conclusion than cost is a factor. But the conversation has started and we'll soon have a good idea of the true cost and whether we are willing to pay it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    jh79 wrote: »
    It's gonna be part of the discussion like it or not. Will be interesting to see the estimates of what the % is likely to be.

    All needling aside, the trends suggest cost will have an impact on voting patterns, the question in that poll was too general to draw any other conclusion than cost is a factor. But the conversation has started and we'll soon have a good idea of the true cost and whether we are willing to pay it.

    Like it or not?

    It's partitionists like you that have not wanted to talk about it. Thankfully the conversation has started, like it or not.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,013 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    Think of the good will and strength behind same sex marriage. A referendum on a United Ireland with be many more times as potent. The U.S. will push for it. Everyone knows it's a bull**** situation as is.
    It will be, 'do you want a United Ireland or do you not?'
    If it's shown there's money in it, (which I believe there will be in the form of investment) even the like of FG will jump on board.


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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,242 ✭✭✭hometruths


    You aren't explaining how you think they are a 'majority'?

    I think that when it comes down to it, more than 50% will vote against a united Ireland. I used the phrase silent majority, because I don't think the majority will rally and campaign vocally against a UI, just they care about other stuff more.
    I haven't made a claim like that.

    I think that if a UI is couched as an investment that we will vote for it. I base that on the visible pride we have in the foundation of this state and the fact that constitutionally we aspire to a UI, something an overwhelming majority voted to put in the constitution. There is also the ancillary evidence that not a single political party is against a UI, nor will be. Politics reflects the people and in this case the fact that n political party or TD has emerged to present this 'silent majority' you talk about suggests it doesn't exist.

    I agree no party will campaign against it.

    I actually think we will have a border poll in the North during the lifetime of the next Dail, and SF will be leading the government at the time.

    Ironically I think they will preside over the Irish people rejecting a united Ireland. If you told me that in 1998, I'd have thought it was utterly bonkers!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    schmittel wrote: »
    I think that when it comes down to it, more than 50% will vote against a united Ireland. I used the phrase silent majority, because I don't think the majority will rally and campaign vocally against a UI, just they care about other stuff more.



    I agree no party will campaign against it.

    I actually think we will have a border poll in the North during the lifetime of the next Dail, and SF will be leading the government at the time.

    Ironically I think they will preside over the Irish people rejecting a united Ireland. If you told me that in 1998, I'd have thought it was utterly bonkers!

    The silent majority nonsense is just cover for someone who has no evidence.

    Absolutely pointless.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,828 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    downcow wrote: »
    I appreciate the honesty in your post.
    As for the issues you raise. I see the plantation as something long back in history. Who are you going to blame? Those living in Dublin now whose ancestors benifited? Do you blame my people? - some of whom arrived during the plantation and most who did not arrive during the plantation. Presbyterians were treated worse than Catholics by the Anglican rulers at times - we have let it go. We don’t blame our Anglican neighbours. I honestly think it’s nuts to refer to the plantation as a factor today. It was a long time before land was taken off native Americans, auusies, etc, etc. I think it’s this old victim mentality. If it’s not the plantation then it’s the famine. Many of your people benefited from both.

    Bloody Sunday is over-egged. It was very unfortunate but it certainly wasn’t any worse (and I would suggest not as bad as) la mon etc. These were protesters and there was a riot taking place. The people in la mon were having dinner and were burned to death simply because they were Protestant .

    Many Catholics were treated badly after partition and it was blatant sectarianism and to be condemned. But you are missing the context. They were seen by those running the country as out to wreck the country (no excuse) but a reality.
    I do get fed up with nonsense like Catholics didn’t have the vote etc - just lies.

    These issues were all complex but I am accepting us brits got it very wrong a lot of the time I am sorry for that. But I have to stomach the constant innocence being portrayed by many on this forum of the Irish. You Irish have discriminated against us brits in a major way also but seem in denial. No acceptance by many of the vicious sectarian campaigns of the ira. No responsibility taken for 70% of the Protestant population having to get out of ROI, nor the mass movement of people in ni eg 90%+ of the Protestant population of derry have to set up new communities on the waterside and those that are left living in a fortress. No acceptance of the sectarianism of the ira cleansing entire towns of Protestants eg my home town
    Etc etc

    There’s a lot there, too much to respond to at once.
    I think the plantation still is relevant, because integration never followed.
    Saying Bloody Sunday is over egged, hats a pterttt bad choice of words.
    Very few if any Catholics think wrongs haven’t been inflicted on Protestants, you’d find it hard to get someone who doesn’t think that tbh. But there’s no question that Irish Catholics have been dispossessed and terribly mistreated over the arc of the history of Irish-British relations. There’s really no question they have been far worse treated than the descendants of the planters.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71,051 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    schmittel wrote: »
    I think that when it comes down to it, more than 50% will vote against a united Ireland. I used the phrase silent majority, because I don't think the majority will rally and campaign vocally against a UI, just they care about other stuff more.



    I agree no party will campaign against it.

    I actually think we will have a border poll in the North during the lifetime of the next Dail, and SF will be leading the government at the time.

    Ironically I think they will preside over the Irish people rejecting a united Ireland. If you told me that in 1998, I'd have thought it was utterly bonkers!

    SF around 30% of the vote, at least to be in power, no other party campaigning for a No vote for the very good reason that it would be political suicide, but you still see a majority vote against? :) Did somebody mention 'bonkers'?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Who is driving all this "United Ireland" chat anyway?

    Are the people of Northern Ireland chomping at the bit to become part of this Republic? or is the UI agenda being pushed and orchestrated by Dublin?

    Why he the urge to extract them and their problems from London, only to have their complicated dysfunctionality integrated into this Republic!

    Is that what we really want?

    As someone who resides in Northern Ireland and who was born and raised here. I rarely if ever hear of anyone talking about a United Ireland in public. Maybe it would've come up the odd time in my Maternal Grannies house, otherwise no it is rarely discussed. I think most people are just thinking of their everyday lives and whatever problems they have at that time.

    If anything I think the media is trying to stirr it up as a narrative. And most forums seem to be saturated with Irish Nationalist 10/1 to Unionists which is not the true demographic, so it sort of gives the impression that they're the majority.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    How is it that the plantation was a long time ago(course of the 17th Century), but two of the key events in the so called Unionist Culture also happened in the same 17th Century, Siege of Derry and 12th July yet they are still commemorated every year. Surely if the plantation is ancient history, s o should those two events.

    I would also like an explanation on how Presbyterians were treated worse than Catholics during the penal laws. I am not doubting they were persecuted, they were which is why so many went to the US, just how where they treated worse than Catholics. In most historical accounts, the Presbyterians were collateral damage in the effort to persecute the majority religion in Ireland.

    Which leads on to the next questions, after being treated so badly by the Anglican church that led to the first Republicans in Ireland, led by mostly Northen Presbyterians. How on earth did they flip so quickly to support the very people who had made life so hard for them during the 18th century. Henry Cooke who was the de facto leader of the Presbyterian Church at the start of the 19th century was strongly opposed to the lifting of the penal rules on Catholics. The Penal laws had been lifted on Presbyterians long before Catholics. Let's not miss that Cooke was also totally opposed to the idea of any mixed education.

    How did Presbyterians go from supporting the idea of creating a Republic at the end of the 18th century to being completely opposed to the idea of even Home Rule less that a century later. What happened during that period that was so influential?

    Sorry, but everything that happened during the troubles can be traced back to what went before.

    This is Ulster Protestant culture, not Unionist culture.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Yeah, apart from Republicans, I don't think the majority of people would be for re-unification at any cost.

    I would say most people would have been happy with the Pre-Brexit situation in that things would slowly keep getting better over time and become less sectarian, but Brexit has shot that to bits. Why it has become a topic more than ever.

    Why would people in the Republic who don't live in NI care about that?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    schmittel wrote: »
    Agree, I think most were happy to let demographics play out and wait for the inevitable to happen over the long term.

    All this recent crap triggered by Brexit has reminded us just how toxic (and costly) the North is.

    Asking us to vote to make all that our problem in the near term and expecting a thumping majority in favour is a bit naive I think.

    Do you understand what you are saying here? I see this continually raised as a point by southerners, it is quite sectarian and narrowminded to want Protestantism to 'die out'.

    Thankfully the 'change' in demographics does not guarantee a United Ireland, and the change is levelling off.

    With all of the negative influence that the Catholic church had on the Republic, one would think that its citizens wouldn't be desperate for a stronger link to Catholism.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    downcow wrote: »
    I obviously disagree with your figures, but I agree that loyalist violence would have exactly the same negative impact on unionist objectives as the IRA violence had on republican objectives

    Except as of recent times its actually been a 'positive' influence to their goals, with the Irish Cabinet and several international leaders using it to support the NI Protocol (without consent of the people here).


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Think of the good will and strength behind same sex marriage. A referendum on a United Ireland with be many more times as potent. The U.S. will push for it. Everyone knows it's a bull**** situation as is.
    It will be, 'do you want a United Ireland or do you not?'
    If it's shown there's money in it, (which I believe there will be in the form of investment) even the like of FG will jump on board.

    So you think that a United Ireland will solve the division in my country? How? It'll just flip things over.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    There’s a lot there, too much to respond to at once.
    I think the plantation still is relevant, because integration never followed.
    Saying Bloody Sunday is over egged, hats a pterttt bad choice of words.
    Very few if any Catholics think wrongs haven’t been inflicted on Protestants, you’d find it hard to get someone who doesn’t think that tbh. But there’s no question that Irish Catholics have been dispossessed and terribly mistreated over the arc of the history of Irish-British relations. There’s really no question they have been far worse treated than the descendants of the planters.

    Not in modern times. I would like you though to provide evidence of a how a Protestant in NI would be treated more favourably in 2021? Could you provide that evidence please, thanks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 299 ✭✭Five Eighth


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    This is Ulster Protestant culture, not Unionist culture.
    If you are distinguishing between 'Ulster Protestant' culture (e.g. celebrating the relief of the siege of Derry and marching on the 12th July) and 'Unionist' culture then could you give us examples of unique 'Unionist' culture which is shared by unionists in England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    If you are distinguishing between 'Ulster Protestant' culture (e.g. celebrating the relief of the siege of Derry and marching on the 12th July) and 'Unionist' culture then could you give us examples of unique 'Unionist' culture which is shared by unionists in England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland?

    Well I suppose being a British citizen and having alignment to the rest of the country. But the point I was making was that not all Unionists are Protestant and not all Unionists have an allegiance to the 12th.


  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,242 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Do you understand what you are saying here? I see this continually raised as a point by southerners, it is quite sectarian and narrowminded to want Protestantism to 'die out'.

    Thankfully the 'change' in demographics does not guarantee a United Ireland, and the change is levelling off.

    I certainly don't want Protestants in Ulster to die out - my mother is one. I'm simply acknowledging demographic shifts are taking place in an electorate.
    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    With all of the negative influence that the Catholic church had on the Republic, one would think that its citizens wouldn't be desperate for a stronger link to Catholism.

    Do you understand what you are saying here? I see this continually raised as a point by Northerners.

    The idea that we are all raving papists down south in thrall to the Catholic church is a little outdated.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    schmittel wrote: »
    I certainly don't want Protestants in Ulster to die out - my mother is one. I'm simply acknowledging demographic shifts are taking place in an electorate.



    Do you understand what you are saying here? I see this continually raised as a point by Northerners.

    The idea that we are all raving papists down south in thrall to the Catholic church is a little outdated.

    It is a sectarian point and not particularly relevant given that the increase is not massively greater. Also many of these young Catholics are the product of mixed marriages.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71,051 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    This is Ulster Protestant culture, not Unionist culture.

    Do you ever wonder why southern protestants aren't invested in the same 'culture'?

    You have used these events to develop a siege mentality basically. My partner is a protestant and she and her family have zero interest in these events and cringe at the antics north of the border over them.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    I do agree that the Orange Order and the 12th Celebrations are backward. I personally have no interest in either organisation or event, I leave my house and go on a drive or am already abroad on that day itself. I think Unionism needs to disassociate itself from the Orange Order if it wishes to gain support from Non-Protestants.

    Southern Protestants were absorbed into the Irish culture as they were isolated and did not form their own culture or distinctive group.


  • Registered Users Posts: 299 ✭✭Five Eighth


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Well I suppose being a British citizen and having alignment to the rest of the country. But the point I was making was that not all Unionists are Protestant and not all Unionists have an allegiance to the 12th.
    Do you not think that your reply is, at the very least, nebulous? I would respectfully suggest that you have a look at what culture means in an nation state context.


  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,242 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    It is a sectarian point and not particularly relevant given that the increase is not massively greater. Also many of these young Catholics are the product of mixed marriages.

    But the point is not that the fresh influx of voters are young Catholics or young Protestants, it's the fact that they are young.

    It is not a sectarian point.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71,051 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    I do agree that the Orange Order and the 12th Celebrations are backward. I personally have no interest in either organisation or event, I leave my house and go on a drive or am already abroad on that day itself. I think Unionism needs to disassociate itself from the Orange Order if it wishes to gain support from Non-Protestants.

    Southern Protestants were absorbed into the Irish culture as they were isolated and did not form their own culture or distinctive group.

    So if you eschew the Orange and the 12th, you have no culture distinct from the rest of us on the island.
    Yet you claimed one as distinct from Ulster Unionism.


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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,242 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    I do agree that the Orange Order and the 12th Celebrations are backward. I personally have no interest in either organisation or event, I leave my house and go on a drive or am already abroad on that day itself. I think Unionism needs to disassociate itself from the Orange Order if it wishes to gain support from Non-Protestants.

    Southern Protestants were absorbed into the Irish culture as they were isolated and did not form their own culture or distinctive group.

    This is a good thing surely?!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Do you not think that your reply is, at the very least, nebulous? I would respectfully suggest that you have a look at what culture means in an nation state context.

    Again, I don't owe anyone a justification for my own identity. I am what I am.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    So if you eschew the Orange and the 12th, you have no culture distinct from the rest of us on the island.
    Yet you claimed one as distinct from Ulster Unionism.

    Culture is more than Orange parades. :pac: As above I don't owe you a justification for my own identity.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71,051 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Culture is more than Orange parades. :pac: As above I don't owe you a justification for my own identity.

    Not asking for justification...I'm asking what it is that is different. downcow struggled with this too, funnily enough.


  • Registered Users Posts: 299 ✭✭Five Eighth


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Again, I don't owe anyone a justification for my own identity. I am what I am.
    I am not asking you to provide an explanation of your identity. It's just we seem to always hear about the preservation of the 'unionist culture'. I just thought that you, as a unionist, might be able to give examples of this culture.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Not asking for justification...I'm asking what it is that is different. downcow struggled with this too, funnily enough.

    I think because you would probably say the usual 'this is a regional difference just as cork to dublin' etc.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    I am not asking you to provide an explanation of your identity. It's just we seem to always hear about the preservation of the 'unionist culture'. I just thought that you, as a unionist, might be able to give examples of this culture.

    That is a reference to Orange culture. Again nothing to do with me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,428 ✭✭✭✭briany


    schmittel wrote: »
    I certainly don't want Protestants in Ulster to die out - my mother is one. I'm simply acknowledging demographic shifts are taking place in an electorate.

    The 2021 NI census has been mentioned in the news as being the first NI census that's expected to return a slight Catholic majority, so it's true that demographics in NI are shifting, but what this means re: a UI is certainly not conclusive. The rise of the Alliance party and the Green party in the North shows a growing appetite for non-partisan politics and it would be my suspicion that such people would not vote in a border poll along tribal lines. They'd be looking at the economic and sociological ramifications primarily. This is backed up by identity polls done in NI where many a sizable contingent respond not as British or Irish, but as Northern Irish.

    So, in my opinion, for a border poll to return a vote for unification, you'd have to have a Catholic/Irish Nationalist majority so overwhelming that even subtracting the ones who vote pragmatically, you'd still get over the 50 percent mark. I don't think NI is anywhere near that. We may get a border poll in 10 years, but I don't think it would return a unification vote. That is unless there is some force majeure which drastically changes the political picture, but by its very nature force majeure is not a surety. We could suppose the economic ramifications of Brexit might fit that bill, but so far I don't see the fallout there being major enough to push enough NI citizens into yet another economic unknown.


  • Registered Users Posts: 299 ✭✭Five Eighth


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    That is a reference to Orange culture. Again nothing to do with me.
    Am i right in thinking that 'Ulster culture' is inextricably linked with 'Orange culture'? If you remove the 'Orange Culture' from 'Ulster Culture' what are you left with?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,333 ✭✭✭Hamsterchops


    I suspect that even in the event of a "United Ireland", there will always be a Northern Ireland (within the new United island). The differences between NI & ROI will still remain.

    In other words, NI will always do it's own thing whether it's governed by London or Dublin.

    NI leaves the UK, we pay for it and London saves a fortune, happy days for them, heavy price for us as the Gardai move North into Loyalist areas :)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Do you ever wonder why southern protestants aren't invested in the same 'culture'?

    You have used these events to develop a siege mentality basically. My partner is a protestant and she and her family have zero interest in these events and cringe at the antics north of the border over them.

    Not one of my Ulster Prod mates have any interest in that side of their culture if anything the sheer batshíttery of it and the fact they escaped has enhanced their appreciation of the Irish culture that they missed out on when they grew up.

    One of them is a Doctor from Larne as well... 'magine, an educated Larnonian!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    I suspect that even in the event of a "United Ireland", there will alwsys be a Northern Ireland (within the new United island). The differences between NI & ROI will still remain.

    In other words, NI will always do it's own thing whether it's governed by London or Dublin.

    NI leaves the UK, we pay for it and London saves a fortune, happy days for them, heavy price for us as the Gardai move North into Loyalist areas :)

    Thankfully your ill-educated suspicions can be discounted.

    Again, you go othering northern Nationalists. Almost like everyone north and west of Jonesborough are the same.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    briany wrote: »
    The 2021 NI census has been mentioned in the news as being the first NI census that's expected to return a slight Catholic majority, so it's true that demographics in NI are shifting, but what this means re: a UI is certainly not conclusive. The rise of the Alliance party and the Green party in the North shows a growing appetite for non-partisan politics and it would be my suspicion that such people would not vote in a border poll along tribal lines. They'd be looking at the economic and sociological ramifications primarily. This is backed up by identity polls done in NI where many a sizable contingent respond not as British or Irish, but as Northern Irish.

    So, in my opinion, for a border poll to return a vote for unification, you'd have to have a Catholic/Irish Nationalist majority so overwhelming that even subtracting the ones who vote pragmatically, you'd still get over the 50 percent mark. I don't think NI is anywhere near that. We may get a border poll in 10 years, but I don't think it would return a unification vote. That is unless there is some force majeure which drastically changes the political picture, but by its very nature force majeure is not a surety. We could suppose the economic ramifications of Brexit might fit that bill, but so far I don't see the fallout there being major enough to push enough NI citizens into yet another economic unknown.

    Just know that this a plurality not a majority. So 55%+ will not have been baptised in a catholic church.

    I identify as Northern Irish and am a Unionist, I would imagine most who also identify as Northern Irish like me, see Northern Ireland as their country and would not want to lose that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71,051 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    I think because you would probably say the usual 'this is a regional difference just as cork to dublin' etc.

    Yeh I would...if it was.


  • Registered Users Posts: 937 ✭✭✭flanna01


    Just reading over a few of the topics of conversation on this thread......

    In this day and age, can anybody really discriminate about another's religious leanings..?? Would you even care like..??

    Paddy Orangeman - Sorry for your troubles there, but Britain couldn't give two hoots about you... Go into any bars or restaurants in 'Landan Tawn' and start your gap about being part of the Union.... Watch the eyes roll back, and the look of distain from your British born and bred Brothers...... I rest my case.

    Paddy Greenman - Oh Lord... What the Tans did to us! How we sang rebel songs and bate ye the hell away again... Yet we can't help travelling to soccer matches as true supporters of British towns and citys... How we love to work in England, party in London, Liverpool & Manchester...... And don't forget we shot our load when her Madge graced us with an appearance..

    Will ye both go way and cop the fu*k on......!!!

    The two Islands share a violent and turbulent past..... But that's what it is, the past.

    Who hasn't got Catholic friends?
    Who hasn't got Protestant friends?
    Who hasn't got Irish friends?
    Who hasn't got English friends?
    Who really cares...?

    The rock that we live on has been around for billions of years before we came along, nobody really owns it.

    The Orange Order... The Shamrock this, that or the other....

    Everybody needs to grow up a little.


  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,242 ✭✭✭hometruths


    briany wrote: »
    The 2021 NI census has been mentioned in the news as being the first NI census that's expected to return a slight Catholic majority, so it's true that demographics in NI are shifting, but what this means re: a UI is certainly not conclusive. The rise of the Alliance party and the Green party in the North shows a growing appetite for non-partisan politics and it would be my suspicion that such people would not vote in a border poll along tribal lines. They'd be looking at the economic and sociological ramifications primarily. This is backed up by identity polls done in NI where many a sizable contingent respond not as British or Irish, but as Northern Irish.

    So, in my opinion, for a border poll to return a vote for unification, you'd have to have a Catholic/Irish Nationalist majority so overwhelming that even subtracting the ones who vote pragmatically, you'd still get over the 50 percent mark. I don't think NI is anywhere near that. We may get a border poll in 10 years, but I don't think it would return a unification vote. That is unless there is some force majeure which drastically changes the political picture, but by its very nature force majeure is not a surety. We could suppose the economic ramifications of Brexit might fit that bill, but so far I don't see the fallout there being major enough to push enough NI citizens into yet another economic unknown.

    Totally agree the future is more about pragmatists vs idealogues rather than Catholic vs Protestant.

    This is why Brexit is significant, as you say it potentially provides pragmatic reasons to vote for a UI, particularly given the mess the DUP have made with their input.

    But more importantly, aside from the in/out EU economic arguments concerning Brexit, I think the biggest impact of Brexit on pragmatic Northerners will be the realisation that GB does not really care a damn about them. I suspect most English Brexiteers, including Boris Johnson, would think that the loss of Northern ireland might well be a price worth paying for a nice clean Brexit.

    If the English were not so worried about losing Scotland, we might already have seen a border poll in the North!

    You mention sociological issues as well as economic, which I think is bang on. I have no idea what the young of Northern Ireland are concerned about, but if it is anything like the rest of the world they are more likely to be worried about climate change, equality etc than flags and protecting the right to march provocatively.

    The more I see stereotypical Unionists blinded to the ambivalence towards them in London, and blaming Dublin for all their problems, I wonder if they are pushing younger voters towards a UI rather than away from it.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    flanna01 wrote: »
    Just reading over a few of the topics of conversation on this thread......

    In this day and age, can anybody really discriminate about another's religious leanings..?? Would you even care like..??

    Paddy Orangeman - Sorry for your troubles there, but Britain couldn't give two hoots about you... Go into any bars or restaurants in 'Landan Tawn' and start your gap about being part of the Union.... Watch the eyes roll back, and the look of distain from your British born and bred Brothers...... I rest my case.

    Paddy Greenman - Oh Lord... What the Tans did to us! How we sang rebel songs and bate ye the hell away again... Yet we can't help travelling to soccer matches as true supporters of British towns and citys... How we love to work in England, party in London, Liverpool & Manchester...... And don't forget we shot our load when her Madge graced us with an appearance..

    Will ye both go way and cop the fu*k on......!!!

    The two Islands share a violent and turbulent past..... But that's what it is, the past.

    Who hasn't got Catholic friends?
    Who hasn't got Protestant friends?
    Who hasn't got Irish friends?
    Who hasn't got English friends?
    Who really cares...?


    The rock that we live on has been around for billions of years before we came along, nobody really owns it.

    The Orange Order... The Shamrock this, that or the other....

    Everybody needs to grow up a little.

    I am not going to comment on the above, I will always remain as a Unionist irrespective of English opinion.

    Your comment about religion is true... why do people feel the need to tell us that they have Protestant friends as if they are a peg above the rest of the Southern population and enlightened.

    You are not enlightened, you did not grow up in Northern Ireland, you did not experience life here. Having a Protestant friend does not make you unique or special.


  • Registered Users Posts: 667 ✭✭✭Fr D Maugire


    downcow wrote: »
    I have no idea what your point is about the plantation being a long time ago. Of course it was time ago. As for my community celebrating the siege of Derry - it was a long time ago was well, but why should we not celebrate it. Actually we celebrated in a very positive nature. We do not spend time talking about how an army surrounded the city and wanted to massacre all the people in it and the hardships of that time,, but rather we celebrate the 'relief of Derry' and the saving of the me if n women and children. Many people still celebrate Jesus birth which was 2000 years ago. If

    You are probably aware that when Protestants are referred to as 'black bastards', it is traced back to when Presbyterians were referred to as blackmouths - this was because they had little else to eat but the blackberries along the roads, hence the mouths were black.
    History also shows that in conflict people are more vicious on those that are different but almost like them. Penal laws were implemented against the Presbyterians with gusto by the Anglicans. In addition the Presbyterians had to deal with negative attention from the Catholics


    This might answer your question about why Presbyterians became Unionists.
    "The General Assembly agreed unanimously that "a separate parliament for Ireland would, in our judgment, lead to the ascendancy of one class and creed in matters pertaining to religion, education, and civil administration. We do not believe that any guarantees, moral or material, could be devised which would safeguard the rights and privileges of minorities scattered throughout Ireland against encroachment of a majority vested with legislative and executive functions."
    IfGladstone found it hard to understand that the Ulster Presbyterians who had led the United Irish movement a century before were implacable opponents of his Home Rule policy.
    IfThe nub of the Irish Presbyterian opposition to Home Rule was their lack of trust in an Irish Catholic government to maintain civil and religious liberty for Protestants in Ireland."


    You didn't really answer my question though. We already know how Unionists felt about Home Rule, I am asking how Ulster Presbyterians went from believing in a Independent Democratic Republic in which all people would be equal, to the type of belief that you posted above. Why did they have less trust in Catholics who had never been in a position to discriminate against them than the Anglicans who openly did discriminate against them, yet who they joined forces with and would have continued to persecute Catholics if they had had their way.

    The anecdote about struggling Presbyterians during penal times does not come across as anything worse than what Catholics had to endure during the same period.

    Finally you were dismissive of the relevance of the Plantation to modern NI as it happened a long time ago, but of course it is relevant. Everything that has happened since the Plantation is relevant to modern NI.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    schmittel wrote: »
    Totally agree the future is more about pragmatists vs idealogues rather than Catholic vs Protestant.

    This is why Brexit is significant, as you say it potentially provides pragmatic reasons to vote for a UI, particularly given the mess the DUP have made with their input.

    But more importantly, aside from the in/out EU economic arguments concerning Brexit, I think the biggest impact of Brexit on pragmatic Northerners will be the realisation that GB does not really care a damn about them. I suspect most English Brexiteers, including Boris Johnson, would think that the loss of Northern ireland might well be a price worth paying for a nice clean Brexit.

    If the English were not so worried about losing Scotland, we might already have seen a border poll in the North!

    You mention sociological issues as well as economic, which I think is bang on. I have no idea what the young of Northern Ireland are concerned about, but if it is anything like the rest of the world they are more likely to be worried about climate change, equality etc than flags and protecting the right to march provocatively.

    The more I see stereotypical Unionists blinded to the ambivalence towards them in London, and blaming Dublin for all their problems, I wonder if they are pushing younger voters towards a UI rather than away from it.

    I don't know why people in ROI keep saying this as if its some sort of epiphany. We all know this and don't care a jot.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71,051 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    schmittel wrote: »
    Totally agree the future is more about pragmatists vs idealogues rather than Catholic vs Protestant.

    This is why Brexit is significant, as you say it potentially provides pragmatic reasons to vote for a UI, particularly given the mess the DUP have made with their input.

    But more importantly, aside from the in/out EU economic arguments concerning Brexit, I think the biggest impact of Brexit on pragmatic Northerners will be the realisation that GB does not really care a damn about them. I suspect most English Brexiteers, including Boris Johnson, would think that the loss of Northern ireland might well be a price worth paying for a nice clean Brexit.

    If the English were not so worried about losing Scotland, we might already have seen a border poll in the North!

    You mention sociological issues as well as economic, which I think is bang on. I have no idea what the young of Northern Ireland are concerned about, but if it is anything like the rest of the world they are more likely to be worried about climate change, equality etc than flags and protecting the right to march provocatively.

    The more I see stereotypical Unionists blinded to the ambivalence towards them in London, and blaming Dublin for all their problems, I wonder if they are pushing younger voters towards a UI rather than away from it.

    'Unionism' has made a mess of Brexit, because Unionist voters are not prepared to dethrone the DUP.

    If FG or FF made that scale of a mess (think the financial crash and FF being decimated) they'd be gone for several electoral cycles.


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