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COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,595 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    For Ireland alone?

    Yeah.

    Quarter totals for Europe are 200 million for Pfizer and 180 million for Astra Zenaca in Q2 so I took 1% of that for an Irish total.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,445 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Yeah.

    Quarter totals for Europe are 200 million for Pfizer and 180 million for Astra Zenaca in Q2 so I took 1% of that for an Irish total.

    Looks like only 70m from AZ in Q2?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,595 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Cork2021 wrote: »
    Looks like only 70m from AZ in Q2?

    Having another look I'm seeing a few different sources different numbers.

    180 million was the initial target it appears to have been revised downwards. I am also seeing recent claims by Astra Zenaca that they hope to ship more in Europe and it depends on approval of the Dutch factory.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,445 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Having another look I'm seeing a few different sources different numbers.

    180 million was the initial target it appears to have been revised downwards.

    It’s Pfizer doing all the heavy lifting so hopefully they produce more then what’s expected to arrive


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,581 ✭✭✭JTMan


    It’s not there for the taking. Why is there a belief that there is limitless supplies of the Sputnik vaccine. Very best case we would get some doses in 3 months if we signed a deal today

    Best case scenario is that Russia source supply from outside the EU like they did with Hungary but even if this happens supply is likely to be small until the Italian/Swiss production comes online. Also, Ireland have said we will not sign any deals until after EMA approval is achieved and that still seems a little while away.

    If/when Sputnik gets EMA approval, either bi-lateral or EU-wide purchases are inevitable (Merkel is interested for example).

    Whilst Russian motives are to be questioned, every little helps.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,567 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Having another look I'm seeing a few different sources different numbers.

    180 million was the initial target it appears to have been revised downwards.

    It's common sense to half AZ number and then half that again. Last week's delivery of AZ to Europe was about 1mil doses. It's extremely unreliable so that really needs to be factored into any predictions.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,503 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    What do you think I meant by migrant workers? Ho hum, guess I'm racist. But really, when someone can't argue in good faith and just throws nonsense accusations around it shows they don't have much faith in the rest of what they're saying.

    If I say the workers in my local shop aren't wearing masks, that's a problem in how the shop runs itself, if I say the migrant workers aren't wearing masks, that's
    a) me assuming they're migrants
    b) assuming that migrants are worse at wearing masks then non-migrants (which is probably not true)
    c) absolving the manager of the shop of blame
    d) blaming my problem on migrants (which is probably the most "brit" statement one could make at the moment)

    than that statement is probably a bit racist.

    It's not burning crosses and dressing up like a ghost racist, but there can be levels of racism before getting to that.

    edit: I will also note if you're willing to retract your statement, I will retract mine.
    Facts and data:
    UK have done 4x as many vaccinations per capita than Ireland or the EU.
    Feelings: The Brits are being mean so I don't like them.

    Nobody is disagreeing with this, but
    a) how they got there was on the backs of others
    b) there is lots of other facts and data that you just ignored about how and why they went about it the way they did, the biggest data point being their very high rate of deaths compared to other countries, even more stark as they had extra time to plan compared to some of the worst affected countries.


  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    What do you think I meant by migrant workers? Ho hum, guess I'm racist. But really, when someone can't argue in good faith and just throws nonsense accusations around it shows they don't have much faith in the rest of what they're saying.


    Facts and data:
    UK have done 4x as many vaccinations per capita than Ireland or the EU.
    Feelings: The Brits are being mean so I don't like them.

    People are losing jobs and businesses. People are going stir-crazy cooped up in their homes. Waiting lists are growing and growing. I happen to be doing pretty well financially out of things but I'd still prefer if I could see my friends, if my friends trying to organise a wedding could get some kind of solid guidance, if my parents could visit their family and get to bingo and enjoy the bit of life they have left.

    Facts and data - if the EU had administered the same number of doses per capita as the UK by now more than 50% of the vaccines globally would have gone to the EU. Can anyone see that this was not feasible?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    It's common sense to half AZ number and then half that again. Last week's delivery of AZ to Europe was about 1mil doses. It's extremely unreliable so that really needs to be factored into any predictions.


    I'd almost take those shams AZ out of any Q2/Q3 projections and see where we're at then

    That way, anything they deliver is just a bonus


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,787 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Reid says people will not get a different vaccine if they turn down what they are offered.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0320/1205096-covid-19/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,117 ✭✭✭PMBC


    is_that_so wrote: »
    They've hit the 100m he promised and if he were Martin people would be cheering. They are lending 4m, to their neighbours and there is work with APAC partners to get production up there. J&J have US commitments and as the supply chain is global you will find supplies coming from other locations. J&J so far are promising to be able to service both the US & the EU.
    It makes a lot of sense for USA to give supplies to nearest neighbours Canada and Mexico.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,567 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    PMBC wrote: »
    It makes a lot of sense for USA to give supplies to nearest neighbours Canada and Mexico.

    He's only lending the supplies, they still need to be replenished, meaning global plants will still be under strain. It would have been better when they have all they need, to allow the companies to export rather than using the vaccines for political purposes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,180 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    Out of interest, are the special Pfizer glass vials thrown out in the medical yellow bin waste, or can they be recycled at all?


  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Out of interest, are the special Pfizer glass vials thrown out in the medical yellow bin waste, or can they be recycled at all?

    I would imagine it’s cheaper and quicker to make new ones than having to develop and validate a cleaning and inspection process


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,241 ✭✭✭Sanjuro


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Reid says people will not get a different vaccine if they turn down what they are offered.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0320/1205096-covid-19/

    And rightly so. If the vaccine is being used, its safe. We can get all a la carte when the vast majority of people are vaccinated. Until then, take what you're offered.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,503 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    I would imagine it’s cheaper and quicker to make new ones than having to develop and validate a cleaning and inspection process

    I'd never really thought about this, but do they even attempt to recycle medical waste? i.e. the glass and steel used being broken down and used as the input material for a production factory, or is it all just land fill?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,815 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    JTMan wrote: »
    Interesting thread on the route causes of why the UK and US got way ahead of the EU with vaccines ...

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1372897635577761803?s=19

    That's a great thread, it succinctly sums up what took 100's of pages to debate here


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,117 ✭✭✭PMBC


    Elessar wrote: »
    So according to The Irish Times the Q2 numbers for J&J are:

    - 33000 April
    - 143000 May
    - 429000 June

    Anyone know the numbers for Pfizer & AZ for the same months?

    I saw that number on RTE site dated 11 or 12 March - it was given as J&J 600,000 total over the three months.
    Elsewhere I read that EU were getting 100 million each of the months in Q2.
    If those numbers are true and if the mfrs can supply it means an average of
    1.2 million for Ireland April, May, June. So 200.000 fully vaccinated and 1million first shots each month. Apologies I dont have the breakdown for the 100 million
    Tell me Im right (please)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,469 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    It's common sense to half AZ number and then half that again. Last week's delivery of AZ to Europe was about 1mil doses. It's extremely unreliable so that really needs to be factored into any predictions.

    When government were publishing the delivery forecast they took 60% off the number AZ told them.

    So the numbers that are published here, factor in a 60% cut for AZ

    https://www.gov.ie/en/campaigns/resilience-recovery-2020-2021-plan-for-living-with-covid-19/


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,815 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    Misquote


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,469 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Reid says people will not get a different vaccine if they turn down what they are offered.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0320/1205096-covid-19/

    Yeah Colm Henry also mentioned this in an interview yesterday I think it was.

    You get one choice and that's vaccine or no vaccine


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 883 ✭✭✭eoinbn


    snotboogie wrote: »
    That's a great thread, it succinctly sums up what took 100's of pages to debate here

    It is also full of mistakes. Trump didn't try and buy BioNtech the rumour was about Curevac for one.

    PMBC: Expect less than 100m in April, 100m+ in May and about 150m in June.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,567 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    When government were publishing the delivery forecast they took 60% off the number AZ told them.

    So the numbers that are published here, factor in a 60% cut for AZ

    https://www.gov.ie/en/campaigns/resilience-recovery-2020-2021-plan-for-living-with-covid-19/

    Yes but they took the 60% for Q1 and came up with 449k AZ for Q1.
    With less than 2 weeks to go, AZ still need to deliver 230k by the end of the month to meet the 60% Government penciled in. I can't see that happening.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,469 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Yes but they took the 60% for Q1 and came up with 449k AZ for Q1.
    With less than 2 weeks to go, AZ still need to deliver 230k by the end of the month to meet the 60% Government penciled in. I can't see that happening.

    We'll see, appearently there's large deliveries due in the last days of March from AZ & Pfizer. We'll see what comes to pass


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,669 ✭✭✭Klonker


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Reid says people will not get a different vaccine if they turn down what they are offered.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0320/1205096-covid-19/

    I'd have absolutely no problem with that and in fact I agree with it.

    But I am curious as to who is making that decision. Is it government, the HSE, NIAC or NPHET?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Klonker wrote: »
    I'd have absolutely no problem with that and in fact I agree with it.

    But I am curious as to who is making that decision. Is it government, the HSE, NIAC or NPHET?
    HSE are running the vaccination programme so they make the call.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    We need to be careful.

    The vaccines may be made in Europe but component parts may not be.

    We need to be sure we aren't cutting off our nose to spite our face. What if we ban exporting vaccines and someone bans the export of the speciality glass vials they are put in.

    The glassware for the Pfizer bioNtech vaccine is a significant portion of the cost of the vaccine due to the speciality fridges.

    Are there any elements of the vaccines made in Europe and imported from outside?

    Well Yorkshire is the primary source for vital ingredients in the Pfizer vaccine:

    https://archive.ph/HVXWl


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,079 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    We need to be careful.

    The vaccines may be made in Europe but component parts may not be.

    We need to be sure we aren't cutting off our nose to spite our face. What if we ban exporting vaccines and someone bans the export of the speciality glass vials they are put in.

    The glassware for the Pfizer bioNtech vaccine is a significant portion of the cost of the vaccine due to the speciality fridges.

    Are there any elements of the vaccines made in Europe and imported from outside?

    Oh I 100% agree . Just saying what I read this morning . Also a letter was issued threatening litigation . I'd say a lot depends on the batch arriving at the end of March


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,595 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Oh I 100% agree . Just saying what I read this morning . Also a letter was issued threatening litigation . I'd say a lot depends on the batch arriving at the end of March

    I think we are only talking about bans of export of Astra Zenaca because they aren't meeting their deal with us.

    Pfizer are meeting their contract with us so we don't really care what they export.

    I'm just worried about tit for tat hitting us.

    We ban export of AZ, UK ban export of Pfizer ingredients and we end up with factories being closed.


This discussion has been closed.
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