2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

DataDude wrote: »

Just one personal anecdote, but a close friend of mine has tried to do this. Nice second home in SCD in the €500-700k price range. Previously turned down offers in 2019 and removed from market. Heard about the current "frenzy" and was talked into relisting by the EA.

A fair while on the market now. Lot of "interest" but highest offer is still over 5% shy of the highest offer from 2019. I feel like it's always the same. Buyers always say the market is mad and booming. Sellers, not so much.

Well have a look at the currently buying and selling thread here your anecdote seems to be bucking the trend

JimmyVik wrote: »

Personally I will vote SF if FF/FG tax me any more in any way. I dont care what reason they give.

And what if SF raise taxes?

hold my beer wrote: »

And what if SF raise taxes?

I doubt they will. But i'll vote for someone else next time if they do.
Taxes are high enough.

hold my beer wrote: »

And what if SF raise taxes?

Then at least you have sent a message to the other arseholes who were responsible for mismanagement of the country.

Only last Tuesday, I had to inconvenience myself considerably by cancelling an order I had already waited a week for and which i likely would have got today, in order to send a message about not accepting being messed with.

JimmyVik wrote: »

I doubt they will. But i'll vote for someone else next time if they do.
Taxes are high enough.

Ha ha yeah right. You've another thing coming if you don't think SF will increase taxes, especially for those they deem rich i.e. anyone earning above the average industrial wage

DataDude wrote: »

I know but my point is it's mostly buyers on there and I feel like as buyers it's human nature to always feel like the world is going mad. All the same narratives of "everything is going 10% over asking" "nothing for sale, everything snapped up, going mad" were equally being spouted back in early parts of 2020 when the market was weak (just look at the first page).

People get their eyes drawn to the best houses in their budgets, which by definition are most likely to be underpriced, and then despair when it goes over asking. It's natural. I'd be interested to see if there was any time in the past 3 years where the buyer on that thread were saying.
"it's brilliant, the market is very weak. Lots going below asking". I'd guess not.

Well its the buyers on there showing their frustration at lack of supply and the way bidding seems to be pushing prices way up. The big difference between now and 2020 was there was twice as much supply on myhome this time last year as there is now thats huge in the context of of the dynamics of supply and demand. Add in 20% less new build commencements from last year and a 3 to maybe 5 month delay in construction this year for new builds. Its not hard to see that supply is a huge sway towards it being a sellers market. There will always be a % of property over priced and it wont sell at that price but proof is in the pudding it will be interesting to see how much prices have gone up in the first quarter of the year. They had been rising for the last 6 months in 2020. A lot of FTB are now active in the second hand market.

hold my beer wrote: »

Ha ha yeah right. You've another thing coming if you don't think SF will increase taxes, especially for those they deem rich i.e. anyone earning above the average industrial wage

Thats why its going to be interesting if SF get in.
If the others dont put up taxes before that SF are going to have a some fun justifying tax increases.
They will end up like the greens.

bubblypop wrote: »

Location is always the first and most important factor in buying a house.
Which is why Dublin property is more expensive then leitrim property, for example

Silly me, of course it is, that's why people with 4 kids buy single room apartments.

When I bought my first house, affordability and the practicalities of it's condition were uppermost in my mind. I didn't have 8 times the deposit and 5 times the income I would have needed to buy something in a choice location.

DataDude wrote: »

Interesting for sure, don't have the graph to hand but I do think Ireland had very high property price inflation in 2017 and 2018 from memory? I'd have expected at least a 12.5% increase based on those years alone but I guess even when it does sell it'll be hard to say what they would have gotten for it at the tail end of 2018? The CSO data so far would suggest at least as much, perhaps slightly more.

Not suggesting by any means that now is a terrible time to sell. Just saying the anecdotes on the buying/selling forum of 10-20% jumps from 2019/20 prices across all sales are not supported by the data (not yet anyway, maybe they will soon!).

Interestingly we seem to be doing better (or worse depending on your perspective!) than other countries. Interesting last line from a report produced by a company that sells property!

"Looking ahead, the report suggests that prices may weaken globally, as the impact of the pandemic begins to unwind, and it may depend on the speed with which the vaccine is rolled out and economies reopen."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-property-price-growth-lags-international-trends-1.4513727

now that you say it you are probably right, if i was selling tomorrow id expect to get more than 12.5% more than the last completed sale here which was more than a year after we bought ours, so on reflection its not as large an uplift as it first seemed to me.

Depends on what it sells for i guess!

DataDude wrote: »

It will be very interesting for sure. It does indeed look like things are heading north but the extent of it and duration of it are hard to gauge. I'd be shocked if it in June we're talking about anything close to the 10-20% increases the anecdotes are suggesting but I could be wrong.

On the supply side, there is a short term lack of supply absolutely, how much will come back when restrictions lift will be fascinating. I'm less pessimistic about the extent of this mismatch this year vs last. Completions shocked on the upside in 2020. Noted commencements are down which could affect supply a year from now but hopefully the industry will ramp up if needs be and suspect there will be resources allocated from the commercial/retail sector which is undoubtedly going to be significantly cooler for the coming years.

Looking forward to data on population growth later in the year, but I'd be surprised if 2020 wasn't the best year for Ireland in terms of the net mismatch between population growth (demand) and new houses built (supply) in the last decade.

The only thing about your argument is the term "short term". Remember the world has shut down there is very limited movement between countries. Pre 2020 we were getting a lot people emigrating into Ireland if this returns to being the norm demand is not going anywhere and we will need even more new builds to catch up. Now say your a Brazilian, Chinese or Iraqi (just picking a few of the nationalities I have encountered in Dublin inner city) person looking to move to the western (first) world and your looking for a country of English speaking, forward thinking and with a good reputation and a country that has a lot of opportunity and ease of access for entry. I think Ireland are way up in the charts for people looking to better there situation when looking at Ireland from the outside. Then you will have the high end tech and pharma jobs that will attract talent from across the globe. Then add in how we have just recently cut our time frames for migrants who are supposedly illegal from 8 years to 4 months to get themselves legal. We are going to have a tidal wave of migration inwards when covid is gone. Then we have the flip side if the country goes t1ts up I think everywhere in the planet will be feeling the pain in some shape or form as there has not been one country immune to Covid, so is it better to leave Ireland and its very high very generous benefits or try your hand somewhere else.

Deleted User wrote: »

Just going through a rural property purchase, stumbled on this thread, and thought I would share my experience.

have been looking for a rural cottage for remote working away from Dublin - the stereotypical narrative I suppose of the flight to rural locations due to COVID and flexible working opportunities. Luckily broadband in the property is pretty good. Wanted a cottage in a quiet coastal location, no more than 2.5 hours from Dublin with some character, good aspect, etc, rather than a new build bungalow

(as an aside, what the hell were people thinking with some of these bungalows that have gone up in the last 30 years - no consideration to aspect, light, layout, use of land - just shocking properties in many cases. Structurally sound, maybe, but would be better pulled down and started again!!)

Such properties come up rarely, and I have missed out on two in the last 8 months. Anyway, I just succeeded in having my offer accepted on the third go.

My point is that all of these went for 25-30% above asking after intense bidding wars, with huge jumps in offers during the process. One party increased the offer by 12% of the asking price in one go, obviously trying to kill off the competition (unsuccessfully). I will end up paying 27% above asking. And the place is by no means perfect (though it will be when I am done with it). Sure, the national HPI shows a modest % increase y-o-y, but that completely masks what is an absolute crazy bidding war out there in some sectors and locations. The demand out there in this space just staggered me, and I thought was worthy of posting

That's actually quite surprising given that the latest GeoView Residential Buildings report published on the 26th January 2021 reported that there were 92,251 vacant properties in Ireland in Q4 2020.

It also reported that the number of property transactions was down 35,542 in the twelve months to November 2020. It also reports that 16,725 buildings were under construction in December 2020.

Link to 2021 report here: https://www.geodirectory.ie/knowledge-centre/reports-blogs/geoview-residential-buildings-report-q4-2020

bubblypop wrote: »

So the location of your first home didn't come into.it at all then?
Ridiculous.
Anyway, location is the first most important factor, other factors then taken into consideration.

The location came third, I didn't say it was irrelevant.

If you have 3 children, your primary consideration is a dwelling that is big enough to house you and them, if not, it ought to be. The location is dictated by your budget, so affordability is the second most important consideration.

This thread has recently been full of links to properties in desirable locations but the discussion is all about condition, internal outdated layouts, kitchens, insulation and the cost of renovation and how those properties are not suitable choices because of thes factors. People are not saying, great location, I'll ring the EA right away.

On the other thread, there are numerous complaints of lack of availability and that all that is available are properties in severe need of renovation, so even though they may be in the right location, again it's practical concerns about the nature and affordability of the property that seem to be the most important criteria.

Actually, I will admit I was wrong initiallly - affordability is the main criteria, as that determines what location you can 'afford' to look at and what 'size and condition of property' you can afford.

If you have 3 kids, and you think you need 4 bedrooms, then that is your no 1 criteria. Your budget determines in what locations you can afford such a thing.

Deleted User wrote: »

Ive been looking at daft for a year, and there are still some rural bungalows there that have not moved at all. Because basically they are completely awful properties.

Whereas some are subject to an insane level of interest, and come and go within a small number of weeks. When a substantial amount of the purchasing is discretionary (2nd homes for flexible working, or a move out of the city by a family for which it is not urgent) then the money will go after properties that tick the boxes of a flexible worker from the city, and completely ignore the rest of the market.

Entirely possible. But if large future increases in property taxes are signaled in the next budget (especially on second homes), it may give such potential second home buyers pause for thought as there may be a significant cost attached in having a second home for e.g. flexible working etc. in future years IMO

And there is potentially over 90,000 of them to choose from.