2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Sure but I'd argue family wealth has always been at play in these locations, historically disproportionately so. i.e your average Dalkey resident would have had far smaller % of net wealth tied up in their house compared to your average Greystones resident. That gap has narrowed significantly I reckon.

That was capable of keeping the kids in the style they're accustomed to 30 years ago, far less so today.

If you've raised two kids in that house in Sandycove and you sell it for a million. That's just over 400k each after taxes for the kids. Are they going to turn round and drop a further 600k into a similiar property?

They probably are, the locals don’t see any other locations as being of interest in my experience:D

People die much later now as well so most waiting on an inheritance could well be in their 50s before they see it, so money is coming their way before then.

From what I have seen over the past 5 years well presented houses in prime locations are selling quickly and at top prices , more recently it seems anything in a prime location is selling , condition regardless, which is a symptom of the low level of supply .

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

They probably are, the locals don’t see any other locations as being of interest in my experience:D

People die much later now as well so most waiting on an inheritance could well be in their 50s before they see it, so money is coming their way before then.

From what I have seen over the past 5 years well presented houses in prime locations are selling quickly and at top prices , more recently it seems anything in a prime location is selling , condition regardless, which is a symptom of the low level of supply .

Not spotting the correlation?

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Not spotting the correlation?

Go on educate me.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

As I said in earlier post that Sandycove house will probably sell. The point is there of thousands of houses like this, all worth 1m+ on paper currently.

Who do you see buying these houses at these levels or higher in the future? Do you think there are enough future buyers with sufficient desire and wealth to maintain these prices?

I’d say people will get plenty of bargains next time there is a crash in the market/recession/pandemic (?). Then it starts all over again.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

Go on educate me.

Well I'm no expert, but if people are living 5, 6, 7, 8 years longer than, say 20 years ago, a lot of big family homes that should have entered the market, say 5 years ago, may be just about to flood into the market.

I think it would be a good thesis for someone in university if they could calculate when exactly this will happen as the supply of big family homes in South Dublin could unexpectedly increase very significantly and in a very short time frame IMO.

Kind of a reverse of the baby boomer impact on the property market.

Cyrus

Hubertj wrote: »

I’d say people will get plenty of bargains next time there is a crash in the market/recession/pandemic (?). Then it starts all over again.

There wasn’t that many bargains last time either

Timing buying a house is hard !

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

I’d say people will get plenty of bargains next time there is a crash in the market/recession/pandemic (?). Then it starts all over again.

that would be my guess too.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

There wasn’t that many bargains last time either

Timing buying a house is hard !

There were plenty in that neck of the woods, i know people who bought them, and looked at a few myself.

Pelezico

The amount of property on myhome has fallen to below 12000. This is remarkable.

Myjome and daft must be losing a lot of money. Bet the Irish Times is worried

Hubertj

Cyrus wrote: »

There wasn’t that many bargains last time either

Timing buying a house is hard !

Timing.... and luck

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

There were plenty in that neck of the woods, i know people who bought them, and looked at a few myself.

Depends on your stage of life I suppose, I remember at the time following threads on property pin and matter how cheap something was there was a chorus saying it was still too expensive so people missed the boat that way a bit as well.

Anyway I don’t think we will see the same sudden sharp shock but who knows .

PropQueries

Pelezico wrote: »

The amount of property on myhome has fallen to below 12000. This is remarkable.

Myjome and daft must be losing a lot of money. Bet the Irish Times is worried

I think about 21,000 mortgage approvals were issued in the last 6 months. Not sure what that means regarding the c. 12,000 properties currently advertised on MyHome.ie. Also, how many of those mortgage approvals were to the same person e.g. a person applying for and receiving approval from 2 or 3 banks at the same time?

However, aren't banks now issuing 6 month "use it or lose it" mortgage approvals which will mean it's going to very hard to use mortgage approvals as a basis for figuring out future demand going forward IMO

Will be interesting how the media spin the mortgage approvals over the next few months but be prepared to question what it really means for housing demand over the next 6 months IMO

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

Depends on your stage of life I suppose, I remember at the time following threads on property pin and matter how cheap something was there was a chorus saying it was still too expensive so people missed the boat that way a bit as well.

Anyway I don’t think we will see the same sudden sharp shock but who knows .

I remember it well too. Same principles of herd mentality whether prices are low and everybody says they'll keep falling, or prices are high and everybody says they'll keep rising.

I got lucky, simply because I moved back to Ireland at that time. But most of the people I know who bought around that time did so having consciously stayed out of the starter apartment game in 06/07/08, and found themselves ready and able to buy family homes in 11/12/13. There was definitely an element of good judgement involved.

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

The amount of property on myhome has fallen to below 12000. This is remarkable.

Myjome and daft must be losing a lot of money. Bet the Irish Times is worried

Do they make their money on listings or traffic ? If it’s traffic I’d imagine they are probably doing ok.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

I remember it well too. Same principles of herd mentality whether prices are low and everybody says they'll keep falling, or prices are high and everybody says they'll keep rising.

I got lucky, simply because I moved back to Ireland at that time. But most of the people I know who bought around that time did so having consciously stayed out of the starter apartment game in 06/07/08, and found themselves ready and able to buy family homes in 11/12/13. There was definitely an element of good judgement involved.

I got lucky(ish) too. Moved back to Dublin from cork in 2012, rented in cork while my wife studied. Within a few months late 2013 into 2014 I took voluntary redundancy and got a nice cheque, then got a better paying job (good luck), then my mum died and I was fortunate enough to receive some inheritance (bad luck). Put me in stronger position to buy and was able to buy sooner (2015/16) than anticipated.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

I think about 21,000 mortgage approvals were issued in the last 6 months. Not sure what that means regarding the c. 12,000 properties currently advertised on MyHome.ie. Also, how many of those mortgage approvals were to the same person e.g. a person applying for and receiving approval from 2 or 3 banks at the same time?

However, aren't banks now issuing 6 month "use it or lose it" mortgage approvals which will mean it's going to very hard to use mortgage approvals as a basis for figuring out future demand going forward IMO

Will be interesting how the media spin the mortgage approvals over the next few months but be prepared to question what it really means for housing demand over the next 6 months IMO

Well just to spin this the 12k on myhome a good % of these are sale agreed as well. I had a cousin buying in Ashbourne and he said any property he rang for was sale agreed. I believe the EA told him they will not put it at sale agreed status until after the full amount of mortgage approval is sorted from the bank.

PropQueries

Interesting article in the Connaught Tribune:

"Debt totalling €12 million is owed by Galway City Council for the purchase of homes in an affordable housing scheme that could not be sold a decade ago when the property market crashed. The value of the legacy debt associated with the purchase of 74 affordable homes that could not be sold on was now about €12 million."

The last line of the article is like the ending of a Hollywood film

"The City Council is planning to proceed with another affordable scheme later this year."

Link to article here: https://connachttribune.ie/councils-e12m-debt-for-unsold-housing/

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Well just to spin this the 12k on myhome a good % of these are sale agreed as well. I had a cousin buying in Ashbourne and he said any property he rang for was sale agreed. I believe the EA told him they will not put it at sale agreed status until after the full amount of mortgage approval is sorted from the bank.

That's what I don't understand. Back in January 2020, noone predicted this level of housing "shortage". We still built over 20k residential units last year (not much less than 2019). People still died (i.e. probate sales).

So, why wasn't this supply shortage predicted?

It wasn't predicted because it doesn't exist IMO

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

That's what I don't understand. Back in January 2020, noone predicted this level of housing "shortage". We still built over 20k residential units last year (not much less than 2019). People still died (i.e. probate sales).

So, why wasn't this supply shortage predicted?

It wasn't predicted because it doesn't exist IMO

This current supply shortage is surely down to covid. Not exactly an ideal time to be putting house on the market to put it mildly! I share your cynicism about the shortage hysteria, but in fairness, nobody back in Jan 2020 could have predicted the current circumstances.

Littleredcar

Has anyone sold to housing agency I recently approached Dcc amd enquired about selling home they came back saying not in a position but asked permission to be referred to The Housing Agency

Pelezico

Cyrus wrote: »

Do they make their money on listings or traffic ? If it’s traffic I’d imagine they are probably doing ok.

Sellers pay a fixed fee to place an advertisement on the websites. Traffic does not increase their advertisement revenue.

There are fewer properties being g advertised and revenue has declined very significantly.

The Irish Times with its large deficit cannot afford a fall in property related revenue.

Pelezico

PropQueries wrote: »

I think about 21,000 mortgage approvals were issued in the last 6 months. Not sure what that means regarding the c. 12,000 properties currently advertised on MyHome.ie. Also, how many of those mortgage approvals were to the same person e.g. a person applying for and receiving approval from 2 or 3 banks at the same time?

However, aren't banks now issuing 6 month "use it or lose it" mortgage approvals which will mean it's going to very hard to use mortgage approvals as a basis for figuring out future demand going forward IMO

Will be interesting how the media spin the mortgage approvals over the next few months but be prepared to question what it really means for housing demand over the next 6 months IMO

There seems to be an anomaly there. I wonder how many new properties were sold to private buyers in the last six months.

I cant see many properties selli v this year beyond new build and a few secondhand.

The property market as it now stands is broken.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

This current supply shortage is surely down to covid. Not exactly an ideal time to be putting house on the market to put it mildly! I share your cynicism about the shortage hysteria, but in fairness, nobody back in Jan 2020 could have predicted the current circumstances.

That and the state is buying/renting everything that isn't nailed down. I've noticed Paschal has been getting more and more negative on this years budget anytime I hear him in an interview.

The narrative may be that the Government will keep spending, but I think he doesn't want to go down as the Finance Minister who bankrupted Ireland (he's still young) and there's a better than fair chance he's asking questions about why e.g. the HAP spend is increasing from €436m last year to over €1billion this year etc.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

I think about 21,000 mortgage approvals were issued in the last 6 months. Not sure what that means regarding the c. 12,000 properties currently advertised on MyHome.ie. Also, how many of those mortgage approvals were to the same person e.g. a person applying for and receiving approval from 2 or 3 banks at the same time?

However, aren't banks now issuing 6 month "use it or lose it" mortgage approvals which will mean it's going to very hard to use mortgage approvals as a basis for figuring out future demand going forward IMO

Will be interesting how the media spin the mortgage approvals over the next few months but be prepared to question what it really means for housing demand over the next 6 months IMO

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

That and the state is buying/renting everything that isn't nailed down. I've noticed Paschal has been getting more and more negative on this years budget anytime I hear him in an interview.

The narrative may be that the Government will keep spending, but I think he doesn't want to go down as the Finance Minister who bankrupted Ireland (he's still young) and there's a better than fair chance he's asking questions about why e.g. the HAP spend is increasing from €436m last year to over €1billion this year etc.

He can ask questions all he likes but until there is an appetite to push the reset button, there's not much he can do about that spend.

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting article in the Connaught Tribune:

"Debt totalling €12 million is owed by Galway City Council for the purchase of homes in an affordable housing scheme that could not be sold a decade ago when the property market crashed. The value of the legacy debt associated with the purchase of 74 affordable homes that could not be sold on was now about €12 million."

The last line of the article is like the ending of a Hollywood film

"The City Council is planning to proceed with another affordable scheme later this year."

Link to article here: https://connachttribune.ie/councils-e12m-debt-for-unsold-housing/

Like the last Shared-Equity scheme from 2003-2010 that generated farcical headlines such as



“Cork County Council to seek repayment break for shared ownership participants“

The likely measure may come after county councillors unanimously backed a motion from Cllr Seamus McGrath to tackle what he termed the “deeply inequitable scheme”.

You can bet your life this portion of the loan will eventually be written off for the prospective borrowers


https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-20405785.html

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

He can ask questions all he likes but until there is an appetite to push the reset button, there's not much he can do about that spend.

I think he can Both he and McGrath have been saying some weird things lately that haven't got much media attention. For example, McGrath was recently on about a "bigger state" and that it needs to "be paid for".

That's code for significant tax rises in the coming budget IMO

The finance minister is actually one of the luckiest people in Government. Nobody blames him when he pulls in the purse strings as it's expected by a finance minister. But if he goes on a spending spree like Cowen did, he will be vilified forever

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

I think he can Both he and McGrath have been saying some weird things lately that haven't got much media attention. For example, McGrath was recently on about a "bigger state" and that it needs to "be paid for".

That's code for significant tax rises in the coming budget IMO

The finance minister is actually one of the luckiest people in Government. Nobody blames him when he pulls in the purse strings as it's expected by a finance minister.

Well if you're saying he is will raise taxes to pay for the ever increasing HAP/lease spend, rather than try to reduce the spend, then I agree with that!

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

Well if you're saying he is will raise taxes to pay for the ever increasing HAP/lease spend, rather than try to reduce the spend, then I agree with that!

Actually no I think both tax rises and spending cuts.

The housing budget can easily be cut by just telling potential sellers or leasors that they can either agree to a lower price/rent or they will tax or regulate the bejesus out of them

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

Actually no I think both tax rises and spending cuts.

The housing budget can easily be cut by just telling potential sellers or leasors that they can either agree to a lower price/rent or they will tax or regulate the bejesus out of them

I agree it can be done quite easily I just don't think the appetite to do it is there yet.

I think when covid is in the rear view mirror the even more terrifying threat of SF will focus the minds, and we'll see a bit of steel then. But it will be too little too late.