Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX Read OP For Mod Warnings

PTH2009 · 13-03-2021 03:07PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Seems like NPHET and Government have been reading my recent posts on here.

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1370729958155427844

That would be too hard to manage me thinks. People will travel from the counties with the tighter restrictions

Lots of Dubs around Waterford back in September/October etc

growleaves · 13-03-2021 03:09PM

gozunda wrote: »

Ah by that metric we can go a wipe out whole populations and not bat an eye...

I'd say there are some people confused by big numbers alright

Nah mate, you already know the context and age profiles of many of the deaths.

When an 85 year old or 87 year old dies from a respiratory illness they've essentially died from old age. Its sad because all death is sad but its not unexpected.

You should not be counting them as part of your 2.65 million at all if you were to be realistic.

growleaves · 13-03-2021 03:13PM

Ireland, England, New York and New Jersey, and some other places, sent infectious covid patients into nursing homes which set off chain reactions of infection and death.

That is a big contributor to the deaths which hasn't been caused by not locking down hard enough, not locking down soon enough etc.

'In Lockdown We Trust' doesn't resolve all issues.

Hellrazer · 13-03-2021 03:18PM

Boggles wrote: »

Citation?

Edit: Hang on, are you including people who don't actually get the flu?

How do you know they didn't get the flu - have the entire population been tested?

This is why CFR (case fatality rate) and IFR (infection fatality rate) cant really be trusted or used.

CFR only works if the entire population has been tested and IFR only works if the infection is confirmed with genetic testing and until you do both our best metric is rate per population.

Not everyone with either covid 19 or the flu is tested.
Some are asymptomatic and don't even know they have had either.

Some have had false positves or even false negatives.

Ebola has a mortality rate far far lower than that again so if that are metrics you are using.

It actually does have a lower death rate as a % of population - however with ebola the cases are confirmed which is why the IFR in ebola is so high and actually works in this case. The cases have been confirmed by testing.

It's why we don't measure how lethal a disease is by simple crude division.

Crude division as you call it is actually a better indicator than CFR or IFR***

***Unless you test your entire population or confirm infections in the population.

Boggles · 13-03-2021 03:18PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Seems like NPHET and Government have been reading my recent posts on here.

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1370729958155427844

Tweet doesn't reference either.

gozunda · 13-03-2021 03:22PM

growleaves wrote: »

Nah mate, you already know the context and age profiles of many of the deaths.. When an 85 year old or 87 year old dies from a respiratory illness they've essentially died from old age. Its sad because all death is sad but its not unexpected.
You should not be counting them as part of your 2.65 million at all if you were to be realistic.

Nah mate you're wrong again. So granny gets killed by a bus - and as a medical expert you sign it off as death by "old age". Really?

What did you say your medical qualifications were again?

But you're wrong principally because your comment has nothing whatsoever to do with the original.

Total deaths were being discussed as a percentage of world's population and not as some daft diatribe about old people dying of 'respiratory diseases" as a means of covid denial whilst ignoring the fact that it's the numbers who get sick which make this a pandemic

Boggles · 13-03-2021 03:25PM

Hellrazer wrote: »

Crude division as you call it is actually a better indicator than CFR or IFR***

***Unless you test your entire population or confirm infections in the population.

Huh?

How can ignoring pertinent data completely be a better indicator of anything?

And what or who uses your metric as a better indicator?

PapaBill · 13-03-2021 03:33PM

ICU capacity determines death rates. That has been the case since the initial break out in northern Italy. It's reported Florida under-reported death numbers. After 2020 spring break fiasco, Florida's health care system was swamped. The whole game is not to overload the health system, especially intensive care. Remember when ventilator availability was the big story? Unfortunately, there are only 2 tools in the box, lockdown and vaccines. Any talk of governments "plans" are wishful thinking or a smokescreen. Applying the brakes (lockdown) is the only response available to them. So it's either "full wellie!" or "handbrake Martha!", until the population develops immunity through transmission or vaccination. Once there is no longer any vector for the virus' life cycle it burns out or mutates, hopefully to a less harmful or harmless one.

gozunda · 13-03-2021 03:39PM

Boggles wrote: »

Huh?
How can ignoring pertinent data completely be a better indicator of anything?

And what or who uses your metric as a better indicator?

I think the current percentage is 2.21% of all known cases as proposed to 0.035% of world's total population.

With approx 120,000000 current cases- I believe a major issue is that it is practically impossible to know the total numbers of people who have been infected.

What we do know is both these figures are likley to increase significantly before we see a full global rollout of vaccinations.

Boggles · 13-03-2021 03:47PM

gozunda wrote: »

I think the current percentage is 2.21% of all known cases as proposed to 0.035% of world's total population.

With approx 120,000000 current cases- I believe a major issue is that it is practically impossible to know the total numbers of people who have been infected.

Worldwide, maybe not. Given the variables.

By country, you can certainly get a rough idea if their reporting is accurate and legitimate, particularly using hospitalizations and previous garnered data.

But the 0.035% figure is hilariously useless.

Applying it to Ireland would mean we had around 13 million people infected.

CruelSummer · 13-03-2021 04:02PM

Finally the Irish Examiner publish an article in relation to ISAG, however their headline states ISAG ‘rejects’ the accusation of scaremongering when if you read the article they do no such thing. They just try to discredit Ronan Mullins instead & are praying no one with a more prominent political status starts talking..

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40243364.html?type=amp&__twitter_impression=true

And today we’ve Gabriel Scally polluting the airwaves on RTÉ. Why on Earth are people putting up with this? Unless RTÉ & others start challenging them on their internal correspondence, goals & agenda- they shouldn’t be allowed on air.

CruelSummer · 13-03-2021 04:03PM

While I’m here, Fergal Bowers shared this article in which Ireland is name dropped as a country where lockdowns have completely failed...cannot see main contents of the article behind the paywall

https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1370707560093847559?s=21

RobitTV · 13-03-2021 04:16PM

Nice to be able to get a haircut in Brussels

https://twitter.com/SeanKellyMEP/status/1370736420097249281

ypres5 · 13-03-2021 04:18PM

CruelSummer wrote: »

While I’m here, Fergal Bowers shared this article in which Ireland is name dropped as a country where lockdowns have completely failed...cannot see main contents of the article behind the paywall

https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1370707560093847559?s=21

that far right dishrag the wall st journal grrr

CruelSummer · 13-03-2021 04:20PM

ypres5 wrote: »

that far right dishrag the washington post grrr

It’s The Wall Street Journal

ypres5 · 13-03-2021 04:23PM

CruelSummer wrote: »

It’s The Wall Street Journal

thanks for the save edited that now

PapaBill · 13-03-2021 04:29PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Let me guess, we were 2 weeks from complete collapse. So answer this question why hasn't the health system completed collapsed in the states which so many states open right now to different degrees. Of course you won't answer, you will just waffle about pints and Christmas.

If I may chime in, it's not a case of health systems completely collapsing. It's a case of demand exceeding supply. Plenty of states, NY, NJ, Ca, Tx, Fl, SD and ND are some where this has been reported. Trump sent navy hospital ships to NY and CA. He sent FEMA and Army Corp of Engineers to states to convert public buildings into field hospitals. All this was done to increase supply. The demand side of the equation? Well people are either treated and get well or they don't and die. South Dakota, one of the most infamous states for resisting any imposed restrictions (google Sturgis SD Harley Davidson rally) has a population of less than 900k, but a covid deaths per million pop 2.5 times ours. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/11/14/covid-19-north-south-dakota-masks-kristi-noem/6237635002/

AlekSmart · 13-03-2021 04:51PM

PapaBill wrote: »

ICU capacity determines death rates. That has been the case since the initial break out in northern Italy. It's reported Florida under-reported death numbers. After 2020 spring break fiasco, Florida's health care system was swamped. The whole game is not to overload the health system, especially intensive care. Remember when ventilator availability was the big story? Unfortunately, there are only 2 tools in the box, lockdown and vaccines. Any talk of governments "plans" are wishful thinking or a smokescreen. Applying the brakes (lockdown) is the only response available to them. So it's either "full wellie!" or "handbrake Martha!", until the population develops immunity through transmission or vaccination. Once there is no longer any vector for the virus' life cycle it burns out or mutates, hopefully to a less harmful or harmless one.

On that point,has the Republic's ICU ward/bed availability situation improved since Covid Day 2020 ?

The initial raison d'etre for the (temporary) Emergency Legislative Provisions both here and in the UK was to protect Health Systems and to allow those time to prepare for and deal with admissions.

Given that,in the main,Health Services have NOT collapsed,can we now take it that ICU availibility has been increased and funded into the future ?

RobitTV · 13-03-2021 05:06PM

Irish Times: Dr Gabriel Scally says ‘amazing amount of travel’ still happening as hospital cases fall

Public health expert Dr Gabriel Scally has said there is still “plenty of virus circulating” and that “an amazing amount of travel” is happening as latest figures show hospital cases are continuing to fall.

Dr Scally said Covid-19 is an “extraordinarily dangerous virus and we can’t afford not to take precautions and get it under control”

Irish Times

PapaBill · 13-03-2021 05:07PM

Imagine being behind the wheel of an overweight articulated lorry and you are free wheeling down the Mamore Gap. You have been given a speed range of 70 - 80 km/hr. You have been told that if you go too slow people will die (long term, economic collapse and associated emotional and psychological conditions) and if you go too fast people will die (short term in a fiery crash). Other than the steering wheel, the only control you have is a brake which is either full on or full off. To make matters more interesting there is a time lag of 3 - 5 minutes from the time you activate / deactivate the break and the time it takes effect. This is what governments have been facing for the last year.

Str8outtaWuhan · 13-03-2021 05:12PM

PapaBill wrote: »

Imagine being behind the wheel of an overweight articulated lorry and you are free wheeling down the Mamore Gap. You have been given a speed range of 70 - 80 km/hr. You have been told that if you go too slow people will die (long term, economic collapse and associated emotional and psychological conditions) and if you go too fast people will die (short term in a fiery crash). Other than the steering wheel, the only control you have is a brake which is either full on or full off. To make matters more interesting there is a time lag of 3 - 5 minutes from the time you activate / deactivate the break and the time it takes effect. This is what governments have been facing for the last year.

themacattack. · 13-03-2021 05:15PM

PapaBill wrote: »

Imagine being behind the wheel of an overweight articulated lorry and you are free wheeling down the Mamore Gap. You have been given a speed range of 70 - 80 km/hr. You have been told that if you go too slow people will die (long term, economic collapse and associated emotional and psychological conditions) and if you go too fast people will die (short term in a fiery crash). Other than the steering wheel, the only control you have is a brake which is either full on or full off. To make matters more interesting there is a time lag of 3 - 5 minutes from the time you activate / deactivate the break and the time it takes effect. This is what governments have been facing for the last year.

you forgot to mention the cowboy driver who got his truck licence in a lucky bag and doesnt know where the retarder lever is

FintanMcluskey · 13-03-2021 05:30PM

PapaBill wrote: »

Imagine being behind the wheel of an overweight articulated lorry and you are free wheeling down the Mamore Gap. You have been given a speed range of 70 - 80 km/hr. You have been told that if you go too slow people will die (long term, economic collapse and associated emotional and psychological conditions) and if you go too fast people will die (short term in a fiery crash). Other than the steering wheel, the only control you have is a brake which is either full on or full off. To make matters more interesting there is a time lag of 3 - 5 minutes from the time you activate / deactivate the break and the time it takes effect. This is what governments have been facing for the last year.

The Irish truck driver has decided to put the brakes full on since last year

The rest of the world is managing quite well while the truck is moving

PapaBill · 13-03-2021 05:37PM

AlekSmart wrote: »

On that point,has the Republic's ICU ward/bed availability situation improved since Covid Day 2020 ?

The initial raison d'etre for the (temporary) Emergency Legislative Provisions both here and in the UK was to protect Health Systems and to allow those time to prepare for and deal with admissions.

Given that,in the main,Health Services have NOT collapsed,can we now take it that ICU availibility has been increased and funded into the future ?

* I am grateful that the demand for ICU facilities has apparently not yet exceeded demand. Although I know friends in the health care system who had and have serious concerns , even anxiety over that possibility.
* It was clear from the beginning that the measures the government needed to take ( correctly IMHO), exceeded their legal authority. They put up a front, but they were reliant on voluntary compliance until these legal instruments could be put in place. I don't know that these were intended to be a short term measure to buy time for the health system to prepare as much as legalizing the only tool they have before the voluntary compliance honeymoon period ran out.
*IMHO it is very possible we did not see a situation where ICU demand exceeded supply because of the actions the government took. As far as any increases in capacity and necessary funding, I think I will reply, "no comment"

themacattack. · 13-03-2021 05:37PM

RobitTV wrote: »

Nice to be able to get a haircut in Brussels

https://twitter.com/SeanKellyMEP/status/1370736420097249281

heard leo and a news presenter having a good aul chuckle during the week at the state of his hair.....peoples livelyhoods are a joke to these people...construction,barbers,hairdressers and click and collect should be open at the very least and never ever be forced to close again whatever happens and it should be announced as such

walus · 13-03-2021 05:39PM

gozunda wrote: »

So your playing disease snap? Nice.

I'd reckon that people are 'bothered by all diseases both bacterial and viral. Though that said some really don't seem to know the difference. Good treatments available btw. Though antibiotic resistance is now an issue with TB. There's even a vaccine for certain types of pneumonia. As well.

And yes this is a declared pandemic and vaccines are only now in play. Go figure.

So because this is a declared pandemic it is ok to care more about covid deaths than any other?
Not to mention that this pandemic affects in vast majority only those at and beyond of age of life expectancy. Hell of a pandemic indeed.

gozunda · 13-03-2021 05:45PM

walus wrote: »

So because this is a declared pandemic it is ok to care more about covid deaths than any other? Not to mention that this pandemic affects in vast majority only those at and beyond of age of life expectancy. Hell of a pandemic indeed.

Hello? Did you miss the detail about these diseases are of concern?

Or that neither of those diseases result in the need for emergency increase in ICU resources?

Or that approx 50% of all Covid-19 related hospitalisations are aged under 65 years of age?

But yeah keep up the whataboutery - you're doing well ...

gozunda · 13-03-2021 05:50PM

themacattack. wrote: »

heard leo and a news presenter having a good aul chuckle during the week at the state of his hair.....peoples livelyhoods are a joke to these people...construction,barbers,hairdressers and click and collect should be open at the very least and never ever be forced to close again whatever happens and it should be announced as such

Not even our nearest neighbour- who are miles ahead in their vaccination rollout have yet opened hairdressers. And at the earliest won't be opening them until mid April.

And no one is laughing at any one out of a job. If anyone I'd reckon Leo was laughing at himself. No harm ther

PapaBill · 13-03-2021 05:51PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The Irish truck driver has decided to put the brakes full on since last year

The rest of the world is managing quite well while the truck is moving

I can't agree totally Fintan. Although
I do think the Irish driver has decided to err on the side of caution, ensuring no fiery crash short term against the very real but longer term, therefore as yet unknown economic, emotional and psychological costs.
The result of releasing the break, which has been done several times now is obvious. I think too the rest of the world is a long way from the bottom of the hill. I wish you well.

walus · 13-03-2021 05:53PM

gozunda wrote: »

Hello? Did you miss the detail about these diseases are of concern?

Or that neither of those diseases result in the need for emergency increase in ICU resources?

Or that approx 50% of all Covid-19 related hospitalisations are aged under 65 years of age?

But yeah keep up the whataboutery - you're doing well ...

I knew it would be a question of time before you bring up the old and trusted ICU argument. It always happens when it is proven to people like you that the number of deaths you keep bringing up is put into context.

As for the ICU and hospitals in general they were busy 2 months this past year. Throughout the other 10 months they were exceptionally quiet, and believe it or not there is a cost of lives that have and will be lost due to other illnesses because of that.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX Read OP For Mod Warnings