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Covid 19 Part XXXIII-231,484 ROI(4,610 deaths)116,197 NI (2,107 deaths)(23/03)Read OP

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  • #5312
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    seamus wrote: »
    Like I said before, the numbers are on a trajectory at the moment that they will have real trouble not going to level 4 on 5th April. The *might* get away with not allowing outdoor dining for pubs and restaurants... might. But if we're looking at ~200 in hospital, ~50 in ICU and daily cases @ 300 on 5th April, then no amount of woo over variants is going to satisfy keeping things tightened down.

    As the man above says, they'll likely phase some things in during April, but that will be the outdoor dining and perhaps some personal services. On day one the 5km limit will be gone, construction, click & collect will return, and outdoor sports will get the green light.
    I think there are probably two lists; this type of aspirational crowd pleasing stuff and the far shorter one we will get. The overall mood of this government is not to be generous and many of these look more like what we hope to do soon or in six weeks. I think the hospital numbers will nosedive but case numbers could prove very stubborn. In that scenario do they pause to avoid a risk of future hospitalisations or accept reality?


  • #5313
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Charles Babbage wrote: »
    If people want a summer like last year then they need to bring the rate down to that we had last year. The people complaining loudest about the lack of holidays etc overlap very substantially with the set of people acting in a way which prevents numbers declining.
    We may not get down to that level for quite a while. It's also not just one set of people. At this stage a lot of people are very tired of things they don't think make sense and will begin to push back against them. Managing that is one challenge, the second one is dealing with when people think this is all over. For some that's the over 70s and the end of May, potentially bringing with it a lot more non-compliance.


  • #5314
    NH2013
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 405 ✭✭NH2013


    timmyntc wrote: »
    Yes of course. There will be some level of restrictions where we reach an equilibrium of sorts wrt new cases. New cases will remain constant at such a point.

    There has been no indication from govt or NPHET that they would look for such a point though. They seem content to go into the boom-bust virus cycle that we're in now.

    Yeh, but the only problem is that if we're now starting to plateau at 500-600 cases with current restrictions, that means that the present restrictions are the ones that strike the correct equilibrium between growth of cases and reduction of cases.

    If cases were still decreasing substantially you could argue that we could ease restrictions to a level that maintains the current levels of virus, but as is, if cases have plateaued that means the current restrictions or close to them are that balance, which is just a very depressing though. :(


  • #5315
    alentejo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 966 ✭✭✭alentejo


    The stalling (if not increase) of cases is the most depressing thing ever!!!!

    I would quite happily have the harshest 2 week lock down with draconian measures to get the numbers down at this stage.


  • #5316
    jackboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,061 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Is it time we revisited the idea of zero covid😁


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  • #5317
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,628 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    NH2013 wrote: »
    Yeh, but the only problem is that if we're now starting to plateau at 500-600 cases with current restrictions, that means that the present restrictions are the ones that strike the correct equilibrium between growth of cases and reduction of cases.

    If cases were still decreasing substantially you could argue that we could ease restrictions to a level that maintains the current levels of virus, but as is, if cases have plateaued that means the current restrictions or close to them are that balance, which is just a very depressing though. :(

    People here were saying we were plateauing at 1000 cases a couple of weeks ago. We've had a few days when progress has stalled. I'd wait a little longer before declaring a plateau.


  • #5318
    fits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,060 ✭✭✭✭fits


    jackboy wrote: »
    Is it time we revisited the idea of zero covidðŸ˜

    Honestly I was all for zero covid last June and even would have considered in December/ January but that ship has sailed now. Closing schools again is just not going to happen.


  • #5319
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    NH2013 wrote: »
    Yeh, but the only problem is that if we're now starting to plateau at 500-600 cases with current restrictions, that means that the present restrictions are the ones that strike the correct equilibrium between growth of cases and reduction of cases.

    If cases were still decreasing substantially you could argue that we could ease restrictions to a level that maintains the current levels of virus, but as is, if cases have plateaued that means the current restrictions or close to them are that balance, which is just a very depressing though. :(

    I fear that until the vaccination programme is far enough advanced that hospital numbers nosedive (like in the UK) we are pretty much stuck here (with the occasion crumb thrown, like the visit to a nursing home, or 5km going to county).

    And even then we need NPEHT to take their eye off case numbers and focus on hospitalisations before they will recommend any substantive relaxation (which they probably won't do, citing Long COVID or something).

    I am starting to think that we wont see intercountry travel until toward the end of the summer. And then a tightening again as we come into winter. Having left Ireland, I am resigned to not returning until 2022.


  • #5320
    NH2013
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 405 ✭✭NH2013


    jackboy wrote: »
    Is it time we revisited the idea of zero covid😁

    If anything this should prove zero-covid to be a non-runner, hopefully the final nail in the coffin, imagine how long the lockdown would have to continue for to get down to zero at this rate. :eek::eek:


  • #5321
    jackboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,061 ✭✭✭jackboy


    fits wrote: »
    Honestly I was all for zero covid last June and even would have considered in December/ January but that ship has sailed now. Closing schools again is just not going to happen.

    The ship has sailed many times and here we are still in trouble with absolutely no idea what levels of restrictions will apply in a couple of months time.


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  • #5322
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    People here were saying we were plateauing at 1000 cases a couple of weeks ago. We've had a few days when progress has stalled. I'd wait a little longer before declaring a plateau.
    The fact that we are a few weeks off April 5th is making people more anxious as it's not clear what range will be used to make any changes possible. Even that 250 or so cases Nolan suggested as moderate looks a good while away.


  • #5323
    fits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,060 ✭✭✭✭fits


    [Deleted User] wrote: »

    I am starting to think that we wont see intercountry travel until toward the end of the summer. And then a tightening again as we come into winter. Having left Ireland, I am resigned to not returning until 2022.

    I don’t agree. I think things will move a lot faster in Q2 than a lot here expect. I’m very confident that June onwards will be low in terms of restrictions.*


    That said. I have no idea what’s going to happen with schools next year in absence of vaccines for children. But let’s not think about that yet.


  • #5324
    fits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,060 ✭✭✭✭fits


    jackboy wrote: »
    The ship has sailed many times and here we are still in trouble with absolutely no idea what levels of restrictions will apply in a couple of months time.

    Let’s give the vaccines a chance eh? Combined with active suppression of outbreaks it should be ok but yeah we need to get to much lower numbers alright.


  • #5325
    Theboinkmaster
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,074 ✭✭✭Theboinkmaster


    fits wrote: »
    That said. I have no idea what’s going to happen with schools next year in absence of vaccines for children. But let’s not think about that yet.

    Schools will operate 100% next year, everyone else will be vaccinated so won't matter if children are not - they're the least at risk.


  • #5326
    cheezums
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 713 ✭✭✭cheezums


    very frustrating time. cases stubbornly high, no clear idea what's going to open in April. all kinds of bull**** going on with vaccines.

    i'm not sure whether the sh1t weather is a good or a bad thing right now.


  • #5327
    fits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,060 ✭✭✭✭fits


    Theboinkmaster wrote: »
    Schools will operate 100% next year, everyone else will be vaccinated so won't matter if children are not - they're the least at risk.

    I don’t think anyone wants to take the chance of uncontrolled outbreaks among children. There’s enough evidence of nasty outcomes for many. Lots of vulnerable children out there too.


  • #5328
    Theboinkmaster
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,074 ✭✭✭Theboinkmaster


    fits wrote: »
    Let’s give the vaccines a chance eh? Combined with active suppression of outbreaks it should be ok but yeah we need to get to much lower numbers alright.

    Maybe not - maybe 500 cases a day is as good as it gets, once hospital/ICU numbers are decreasing: crack on opening up.

    As we progress opening up good weather and increased vaccination in April/May will keep cases at a level.


  • #5329
    Theboinkmaster
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,074 ✭✭✭Theboinkmaster


    fits wrote: »
    I don’t think anyone wants to take the chance of uncontrolled outbreaks among children. There’s enough evidence of nasty outcomes for many. Lots of vulnerable children out there too.

    Most parents are sending their kids to school right now, why would it be worse from September on?!?!?

    Most parents accept the risk is low so happy to do so, myself included.


  • #5330
    fits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,060 ✭✭✭✭fits


    Theboinkmaster wrote: »
    Maybe not - maybe 500 cases a day is as good as it gets, once hospital/ICU numbers are decreasing: crack on opening up.

    As we progress opening up good weather and increased vaccination in April/May will keep cases at a level.

    Maybe you’re right. I just can’t forget how opening up at Christmas was like throwing petrol on a fire. Think we need to be careful until June.


  • #5331
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    fits wrote: »
    Let’s give the vaccines a chance eh? Combined with active suppression of outbreaks it should be ok but yeah we need to get to much lower numbers alright.
    Once they get here sure but vaccine supplies are also subject to booby traps, which can knock planning out of whack in an instant.


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  • #5332
    Theboinkmaster
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,074 ✭✭✭Theboinkmaster


    fits wrote: »
    Maybe you’re right. I just can’t forget how opening up at Christmas was like throwing petrol on a fire. Think we need to be careful until June.

    Christmas we went from Level 5 to zero - utter madness, nobody expecting that.

    But you could go:

    April level 4
    May level 3
    June level 2


  • #5333
    Storm 10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,069 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Big funeral in Leitrim yesterday over 300 at it and friend tells me a big wedding in Salthill now , wonderful law obeying people


  • #5334
    jackboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,061 ✭✭✭jackboy


    fits wrote: »
    Let’s give the vaccines a chance eh? Combined with active suppression of outbreaks it should be ok but yeah we need to get to much lower numbers alright.

    The vaccines are key alright but we are still not sure we will get the bulk of adults vaccinated over the summer. If that drags on we could lose another summer.

    Suppression of outbreaks is a good idea but there is little enforcement. Shaming of some groups in the media in place of Garda enforcement. That realistically won’t change so, so called superspreader events will continue until we get numbers very low in the community.


  • #5335
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,054 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Big funeral in Leitrim yesterday over 300 at it and friend tells me a big wedding in Salthill now , wonderful law obeying people

    Ya, twitter thread here on it

    https://mobile.twitter.com/mistereatgalway/status/1370386764062457859


  • #5336
    UDAWINNER
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 860 ✭✭✭UDAWINNER


    Theboinkmaster wrote: »
    Christmas we went from Level 5 to zero - utter madness, nobody expecting that.

    But you could go:

    April level 4
    May level 3
    June level 2

    At christmas, proper pubs were still closed, allowing people in from abroad caused the majority of it along with others acting the muppet with house parties, etc. Hope they are happy with the deaths and cases they caused.


  • #5337
    Theboinkmaster
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,074 ✭✭✭Theboinkmaster


    UDAWINNER wrote: »
    At christmas, proper pubs were still closed, allowing people in from abroad caused the majority of it along with others acting the muppet with house parties, etc. Hope they are happy with the deaths and cases they caused.

    Ah yes the big bad UK variant...like those poor souls in Belmullet ;)

    Indoor socialising caused the damage simple as that - a nightclub opened up in Belmullet on New Years eve FFS.


  • #5338
    RebelButtMunch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,406 ✭✭✭RebelButtMunch


    seamus wrote: »
    Rare agreement from all of my rough projections of a slow trend plateauing towards the end of the month.

    Which is disappointing, but plateaus have appeared before and disappeared again. Let's see what next week brings.
    Yes. Also as the numbers come down small blips can be proportionally larger


  • #5339
    NH2013
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 405 ✭✭NH2013


    UDAWINNER wrote: »
    At christmas, proper pubs were still closed, allowing people in from abroad caused the majority of it along with others acting the muppet with house parties, etc. Hope they are happy with the deaths and cases they caused.

    As much as I'd like to blame foreign travel for the mess over Christmas I think that was mostly on us.

    I was invited to a number of parties and dinners in the lead up to Christmas almost like any other year and was temped to go to most until about 2.5 weeks before Christmas I decided I didn't want to take the chance on testing positive over Christmas so kept to myself for the final two and a bit weeks, but certainly plenty were out and throwing parties. All five of my friends who tested positive in the third wave had been partying it up in the three weeks before Christmas at various stages, and a number then went back to families on Christmas day and spread it to their families there.

    Travel to the UK was outright banned on the 20th of December and up to that all passengers had to have a negative PCR to get on the flight, which would probably have caught 95% of potential seeding events.

    Obviously some cases got through and into the country but it wasn't until about the 3rd week of January that the % of cases belonging to the UK variant became significant. 90% of the variants identified in the immediate post Christmas wave was the standard Irish variant.


  • #5340
    griffdaddy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,412 ✭✭✭griffdaddy


    Anyone who enjoys barbecuing knows that the stall is just a phenomenon we have to wait out - cases will start to drop again from next week.


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  • #5341
    shinzon
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,463 ✭✭✭shinzon


    https://news.sky.com/story/italy-set-to-impose-national-lockdown-over-easter-weekend-12243539
    Italy is set to impose another national lockdown over the Easter weekend to combat growing numbers of coronavirus cases.

    It will see non-essential shops closed from 3 April to 5 April, with people only allowed to leave their homes for work, health or emergency reasons, according to a draft government decree seen by Reuters news agency.
    The country - the first in the world to impose a national COVID lockdown just over a year ago - will also enforce tighter restrictions in low-risk areas from Monday.

    Those measures - which form part of an existing four-tier colour-coded system - will see movement between towns in "yellow" regions limited and restaurants and bars shuttered.

    Shin


This discussion has been closed.
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