When will it all end?

lee_baby_simms · 10-03-2021 06:57PM

Allinall wrote: »

Much more difficult politically to do what they’re doing.

Not really. Shutting down the country indefinitely “because NPHET advised us to” is extremely easily.

Coming up with plans to focus protect, invest money in ICU capacity and rapid test procedures while slowly opening up the economy is much harder.

10-03-2021 06:58PM

Scotty # wrote: »

Micky I’m going to give explaining this to you one more shot and try to show you why I and most of the world’s health experts think you are wrong. Read it a couple of times if you need to.

Let’s imagine for a moment we have no vaccine. They haven’t been invented. Then let's imagine we have no restrictions. People can go to the pub, pack into music venues, pack the luas, etc, etc, etc, no masks, no social distancing. It’s like we’re back in 2019.

In December 2020 we had 3 weeks of no lockdown. We still had masks, we still had social distancing, we still had a lot of restrictions.

In those 3 weeks and with those restrictions still in place covid soared. It soared to the point where over a whopping 160 people per day were being admitted to hospital. Now remember that’s with masks, that’s with social distancing, that’s with limits in pubs and restaurants. That’s with no concerts or sports.

Now, imagine without ANY restrictions what that number would get to? Would it be twice as bad? 5 times? 10 times worse? 50 times worse maybe?? And when we don’t lockdown after 3 weeks what happens? What are the hospitalisations after 5 weeks, 8 weeks, 12 weeks??? How many are being hospitalised per day after 12 weeks of no vaccine and no restrictions? Is it 500 per day? 600? 900? I have no idea but I would say it’s well north of 750 per day when there’s no vaccine and no restrictions but for the purpose of my scenario let’s be really conservative and say it’s 500.

RE: The vaccine. 20-30% won’t be vacc’ed. For another 3-8% the vac won’t work. The BEST figure I’ve seen for vaccines reducing hospital numbers is 87% (which is bloody brilliant!!!). So with the 20-30% not getting it and the 87% reduction we’re looking at an overall hospital reduction of about 75% (incidentally, the exact same figure the UK have come up with in their roadmap).

So.... 500 hospitalisations per day, and remember that’s conservative, reduced by 75% is 125 people per day. In a little over two weeks 20% of our bed capacity would be gone to covid patients. I don’t know what the magic number is for us to have zero restrictions but still have hospitalisations. I’d imagine it’s under 20/day though.

Vaccines work and they work very well. But unless we can either vastly increase our bed capacity or come up with a more effective vaccine, restrictions are going to be in place for the foreseeable.

Now, I’m sure you are going to tell me I’m wrong but if you do, please explain where and why.

No they won’t because we’ll run out of money eventually anyways. And then we’ll have worse things to worry about.

We can’t keep borrowing 20 billion a year

Hellrazer · 10-03-2021 07:00PM

Tazz T wrote: »

Incidentally where are you getting your stats for death percentages?

Ive worked it backwards from deaths per population as a percentage and then deaths per population over 65s as a percentage.

Most countries report those numbers.

What I need is someone whos decent with excel to help me put this into a spread sheet and try get a 100 or so countries into it.
I can use excel but Im useless at the formula side of things.

Any one want to help out?

lee_baby_simms · 10-03-2021 07:00PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

I have been explaining how it works but like the other poster it’s not registering.

Once again like others you are comparing last year and last December, how is that relevent to December 2020 ( no vaccinations) vs December 2021(vaccinated). You really need to learn the difference between the two. Stop comparing 2020 to 2021.

I love your optimism Mickey but if you think any kind of meaningful normal will resume this year then you’re going to be disappointed.

Vaccine efficacy amongst the all important older demographic is still very much in question.

Micky 32 · 10-03-2021 07:02PM

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

I love your optimism Mickey but if you think any kind of meaningful normal will resume this year then you’re going to be disappointed.

Vaccine efficacy amongst the all important older demographic is still very much in question.

By autumn winter things will change.

Scotty # · 10-03-2021 07:04PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Stop comparing 2020 to 2021.

None so blind as those who will not see.

Our hospital spike, the one I am referring to, was in 2021. Less than 8 weeks ago.

I should have known it would go straight over your head. Ahh well. I tried.

Micky 32 · 10-03-2021 07:05PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

By autumn winter things will change.

Scotty # wrote: »

None so blind as those who will not see.

Our hospital spike, the one I am referring to, was in 2021. Less than 8 weeks ago.

I should have known it would go straight over your head. Ahh well. I tried.

Were we vaccinated 8 weeks ago? See what i mean. If you read my post i’m talking about December 2021.

yer man! · 10-03-2021 07:06PM

Seems like Belgium has had enough and is extending the interval between pfizer doses to 5 weeks.

https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/159253/boost-for-belgiums-vaccination-campaign-more-time-between-two-pfizer-doses-interministerial-health-conference-superior-health-council-ema-taskforce/

I hope the irish government will do a copy and paste

jackryan34 · 10-03-2021 07:07PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

I have been explaining how it works but like the other poster it’s not registering.

Once again like others you are comparing last year and last December, how is that relevent to December 2020 ( no vaccinations) vs December 2021(vaccinated). You really need to learn the difference between the two. Stop comparing 2020 to 2021.

Paint us a scenario then Micky?

It works is something a child can say

Prove yourself

The scenario

1 million kids and pregnant women can't get a vaccine

1 million refuse to get an emergency approved vaccine

3 million have been vaccinated

2 million have not

Vaccine is 95% efficacious

5% are not protected and can be infected and of those 5% not protected , 2.5% are at risk of hospitalisation

We stop all restrictions in the October with 50 cases per day

Flu is back in circulation with no restrictions

What happens next?

How many cases and hospitalisations do we have of Covid in January?

How do the 3 months of Oct to Jan go with 2 million with no vaccine and 95% efficacious vaccines

Micky 32 · 10-03-2021 07:09PM

jackryan34 wrote: »

Paint us a scenario then Micky?

It works is something a child can say

Prove yourself

The scenario

1 million kids and pregnant women can't get a vaccine

1 million refuse to get an emergency approved vaccine

3 million have been vaccinated

2 million have not

Vaccine is 95% efficacious

5% are not protected and can be infected and of those 5% not protected , 2.5% are at risk of hospitalisation

We stop all restrictions in the October with 50 cases per day

Flu is back in circulation with no restrictions

What happens next?

How many cases and hospitalisations do we have in January?

I have already explained what i think. What’s January 2021 got to do with it? Hardly anyone vaccinated, learn the difference.

Trials are ongoing of the cohort you’re waffling about. Chances are all will be approved by end of year.

jackryan34 · 10-03-2021 07:14PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

I have already explained what i think. What’s January 2021 got to do with it? Hardly anyone vaccinated, learn the difference.

Trials are ongoing of the cohort you’re waffling about. Chances are all will be approved by end of year.

Read the scenario again

Use the data I provided

Show me how its possible to have a winter in with no restrictions

I'll simplify it for you

2 million not vaccinated

3 million vaccinated

How does winter go?

bucketybuck · 10-03-2021 07:17PM

monkeybutter wrote: »

they are moving towards opening up

Really?

So when is that happening then? Cite?

Klonker · 10-03-2021 07:28PM

Scotty # wrote: »

Micky I’m going to give explaining this to you one more shot and try to show you why I and most of the world’s health experts think you are wrong. Read it a couple of times if you need to.

Let’s imagine for a moment we have no vaccine. They haven’t been invented. Then let's imagine we have no restrictions. People can go to the pub, pack into music venues, pack the luas, etc, etc, etc, no masks, no social distancing. It’s like we’re back in 2019.

In December 2020 we had 3 weeks of no lockdown. We still had masks, we still had social distancing, we still had a lot of restrictions.

In those 3 weeks and with those restrictions still in place covid soared. It soared to the point where over a whopping 160 people per day were being admitted to hospital. Now remember that’s with masks, that’s with social distancing, that’s with limits in pubs and restaurants. That’s with no concerts or sports.

Now, imagine without ANY restrictions what that number would get to? Would it be twice as bad? 5 times? 10 times worse? 50 times worse maybe?? And when we don’t lockdown after 3 weeks what happens? What are the hospitalisations after 5 weeks, 8 weeks, 12 weeks??? How many are being hospitalised per day after 12 weeks of no vaccine and no restrictions? Is it 500 per day? 600? 900? I have no idea but I would say it’s well north of 750 per day when there’s no vaccine and no restrictions but for the purpose of my scenario let’s be really conservative and say it’s 500.

RE: The vaccine. 20-30% won’t be vacc’ed. For another 3-8% the vac won’t work. The BEST figure I’ve seen for vaccines reducing hospital numbers is 87% (which is bloody brilliant!!!). So with the 20-30% not getting it and the 87% reduction we’re looking at an overall hospital reduction of about 75% (incidentally, the exact same figure the UK have come up with in their roadmap).

So.... 500 hospitalisations per day, and remember that’s conservative, reduced by 75% is 125 people per day. In a little over two weeks 20% of our bed capacity would be gone to covid patients. I don’t know what the magic number is for us to have zero restrictions but still have hospitalisations. I’d imagine it’s under 20/day though.

Vaccines work and they work very well. But unless we can either vastly increase our bed capacity or come up with a more effective vaccine, restrictions are going to be in place for the foreseeable.

Now, I’m sure you are going to tell me I’m wrong but if you do, please explain where and why.

Load of waffle there, don't know where to start but will just pick a few parts.

You said 20 - 30% won't get vaccinated and thats might be true but still seems on the low side. But in the High risk areas (over 60s or compromised people) it will be over 90% and probably closer to 100%. If healthy 18 - 30s don't get vaccinated and it may be lower numbers here it won't have much if any effect on hospital or icu numbers.

Vaccinated people are a lot less likely to catch and spread the virus which will help break down chains of transmission so you can't just say 25% unvaccinated will result in one quarter getting infected compared if no one was vaccinated. That's not how these thing work, it would be a lot less infections than 25%.

Micky 32 · 10-03-2021 07:33PM

jackryan34 wrote: »

Read the scenario again

Use the data I provided

Show me how its possible to have a winter in with no restrictions

I'll simplify it for you

2 million not vaccinated

3 million vaccinated

How does winter go?

I guess it doesn’t register with you does it. Kids will eventually be approved in months to come. Anyway i’ll explain it to you again.

The adults, old and vulnerable are getting vaccinated. They are the ones mostly causing hospitals to fill up, deaths also. Once the majority of them are inoculated you’ll see hospitalizations plummet.
If you aren’t able to understand this there’s nothing more i can do for you.

Rodin · 10-03-2021 07:33PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You are deluded.Tell that to the tens of thousands of small business owners up and down the country.

Plenty of businesses still going if their van'a presence on the road is anything to go by.
If the regulation were enforced we wouldn't still be at over 600 cases a day.

The high levels of circulating disease are one reason why this "lockdown" will drag on even longer.

Thespoofer · 10-03-2021 07:41PM

Rodin wrote: »

Plenty of businesses still going if their van'a presence on the road is anything to go by.
If the regulation were enforced we wouldn't still be at over 600 cases a day.

The high levels of circulating disease are one reason why this "lockdown" will drag on even longer.

Bills need to be paid I suppose.

El_Duderino 09 · 10-03-2021 07:43PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

You don’t need the vaccines to work 100%. However with all the data that’s available they work well enough to stop hospitalizations from being overwhelmed. That’s what matters.

I know we don’t need vaccines to work 100%. Nobody has suggested the vaccines will work 100%.

I get that you’re convinced you know what will happen, but the people who will be making the decisions have told us they don’t know what will happen. So unless you’re going to be making the decisions on behalf of government by the time winter comes, then I’m happy to say it’s clear that you’re extrapolating too much from the available evidence and making up the difference with wishful thinking.

jackryan34 · 10-03-2021 07:46PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

I guess it doesn’t register with you does it. Kids will eventually be approved in months to come. Anyway i’ll explain it to you again.

The adults, old and vulnerable are getting vaccinated. They are the ones mostly causing hospitals to fill up, deaths also. Once the majority of them are inoculated you’ll see hospitalizations plummet.
If you aren’t able to understand this there’s nothing more i can do for you.

Leo spelt it out today for you Micky

You still don't get it

You will in October

Good luck

Micky 32 · 10-03-2021 07:50PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I know we don’t need vaccines to work 100%. Nobody has suggested the vaccines will work 100%.

I get that you’re convinced you know what will happen, but the people who will be making the decisions have told us they don’t know what will happen. So unless you’re going to be making the decisions on behalf of government by the time winter comes, then I’m happy to say it’s clear that you’re extrapolating too much from the available evidence and making up the difference with wishful thinking.

You suggested ongoing restrictions because the vaccines don’t work 100%. You were the one that brought that up.

Secondly i’m not “convinced i know what will happen” i was giving my opinion on what i think most likely will happen given my research on the subject and the data that emerges everyday.

Wishful thinking? Lol i don’t think it’s me that’s wishful thinking. :rolleyes:

Micky 32 · 10-03-2021 07:54PM

jackryan34 wrote: »

Leo spelt it out today for you Micky

You still don't get it

You will in October

Good luck

Maybes, could be’s etc etc etc. if you think business will be shut every winter because of the flu you’ll be disappointed. Either way i won’t be locked up because i’m in the position i can relocate to the USA so worse case scenario that’s what i’ll do. But i’ll be thinking of you if you can’t travel more than 5km

However i don’t think that will happen, i’d say you’re safe enough

El_Duderino 09 · 10-03-2021 09:40PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

You suggested ongoing restrictions because the vaccines don’t work 100%. You were the one that brought that up.

Secondly i’m not “convinced i know what will happen” i was giving my opinion on what i think most likely will happen given my research on the subject and the data that emerges everyday.

Wishful thinking? Lol i don’t think it’s me that’s wishful thinking. :rolleyes:

No, you suggested I don’t think vaccines work. I do think they work. But how well they will be able to prevent us from needing restrictions with c.65% of the population vaccinated in winter, remains to be seen. Pretending you know the answer to this question, involves wishful thinking to bridge the gap between what we know so far and the conclusion you’ve reached. You claim you don’t assert it with certainty... I could quote several times where you assert it with certainty. Ending a declarative statement with “end of” doesn’t really suggest you’re leaving much room for uncertainty.

Monster249 · 10-03-2021 09:42PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Maybes, could be’s etc etc etc. if you think business will be shut every winter because of the flu you’ll be disappointed. Either way i won’t be locked up because i’m in the position i can relocate to the USA so worse case scenario that’s what i’ll do. But i’ll be thinking of you if you can’t travel more than 5km

However i don’t think that will happen, i’d say you’re safe enough

Don't listen to this clown, he's horny for lockdown. He's going to have to find a new fetish.

Sobit1964 · 10-03-2021 09:43PM

Monster249 wrote: »

Don't listen to this clown, he's horny for lockdown. He's going to have to find a new fetish.

His safe word might be 'dont stop'

Micky 32 · 10-03-2021 09:59PM

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

No, you suggested I don’t think vaccines work. I do think they work. But how well they will be able to prevent us from needing restrictions with c.65% of the population vaccinated in winter, remains to be seen. Pretending you know the answer to this question, involves wishful thinking to bridge the gap between what we know so far and the conclusion you’ve reached. You claim you don’t assert it with certainty... I could quote several times where you assert it with certainty. Ending a declarative statement with “end of” doesn’t really suggest you’re leaving much room for uncertainty.

65%( your claim) = old, vulnerable, most adults = avoids hospitalization/deaths= life goes on.

S_D · 10-03-2021 09:59PM

Theres so much absolute garbage being talked about here when NO ONE knows what will happen. People talking about winter 2021 ffs, this country doesnt know whats happening on April 1st yet!!

jackryan34 · 10-03-2021 10:07PM

Monster249 wrote: »

Don't listen to this clown, he's horny for lockdown. He's going to have to find a new fetish.

Is that Leo you referring to?

Cause he basically confirmed Winter 21-22 lockdown incase you missed it

Micky 32 · 10-03-2021 10:09PM

jackryan34 wrote: »

Is that Leo you referring to?

Cause he basically confirmed Winter 21-22 lockdown incase you missed it

Confirmed? Lol where did he say confirmed?:rolleyes:

“While Mr Varakdar said nobody could say for certain that there wouldn’t be another lockdown, he said the vaccine data was “very positive”, with all vaccines showing “close to 100pc effectiveness in preventing severe illness, hospitalisation and death”.

If the latter proves to be true it will be unlikely.

S_D · 10-03-2021 10:10PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Confirmed? Lol where did he say confirmed?:rolleyes:

:rolleyes:

Mr. Karate · 10-03-2021 10:29PM

dublin49 wrote: »

listening to Leo at 1PM would not suggest there will be much change in April,construction back and 5 kms rule amended is all he mentioned and suggested level 5 will be maintained.

He can go **** himself sideways if he thinks people are going to stay in lockdown for damn near most of Summer and then expect us to endure another lockdown for Winter.

El_Duderino 09 · 10-03-2021 10:31PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

65%( your claim) = old, vulnerable, most adults = avoids hospitalization/deaths= life goes on.

65% is 80% of adults. It’s a reasonable estimate of what we can achieve by the end of the year.

We’ll get around to vaccinating the under 18s when the vaccines are approved for them. So far they estimate it won’t start until end of the year. So the 65% is based on the evidence we have. I could inject some wishful thinking and boost it to 90% for you, if you prefer. But it won’t change the reality.

When will it all end?

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