When will it all end?

Good news from lilly, today, our boys may start using this treatment and lift all restrictions asap. No reason to continue lockdown between treatments for anyone and vaccinations for the at risk

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-lilly-idUSKBN2B21C0

Hellrazer wrote: »

NZ has basically been a country in lock down with no inward travel since last year. And its an interesting one.

Its never going to be an easy one to compare though.

But here goes.

4.91 million population.
26 covid deaths - death rate of 0.0005 %
Over 65s - 495600 - Death rate .005%

So lock down has probably saved them 2450 deaths.

Certainly interesting, but even with fully vaccination, it will be more interesting to see what happens if/when they finally open. Zero-Covid is a zero tested strategy in pandemic methodology. Completely unexplored territory.

As for India, it really is the classic let it rip scenario. One huge wave that led to crowded cities hitting herd immunity. You can see now six months later, another slow rise in infections due to immunity wearing off/new variants. The reasons for lower death could be that, as has been suggested elsewhere, is that the virus has some genetic predisposition. Probably a combination of that and poor reporting.

monkeybutter wrote: »

I don't have one


are you anti vax? a flat earther?


are you thinking of becoming one


We should tackle this with sense and caution


which is what is happening


anyone who thinks the current situation is actually tough, needs to have a good hard look at themselves

Comparisons of this nature don't work in practice. If you follow your logic I sincerely hope you have never once complained about anything in your life.

Hellrazer wrote: »

Ive a feeling that its not the end for NZ - they`ll be hit with a huge wave of infections as soon as they open up even a small bit - they`ll have no immunity at all .

Theyll be hit by all sorts of virus.

We will be hit hard by flu and colds next year aswell.

Also NZ death rate will surely run above average once they open up.

Nature will always find a way unfortunately.

hynesie08 wrote: »

Except for the changes in April.......

The fact is that by current trends, the position we'll be in at April 5th is sufficient to upgrade to level 3. The anger from people is reflecting that fact.

hynesie08 wrote: »

Except for the changes in April.......

Agreed , they literally have to do something in April, just look at these covid threads since they started the usual dripping about what they will and primarily won't do.

monkeybutter wrote: »

no somethings are tough


some aren't


so they do work


or is it easier you have it the more you complain

Nothing's tough compared to growing up in Africa or being born deaf, blind and dumb.

That's a ridiculous outlook and doesn't work in western societies.

Deleted User wrote: »

You obviously haven't heard the headline news? Almost no change in lockdown until mid May, its just been on the 4pm News.

The numbers won't be there to justify it continuing that long, we have a non invasive cure, that should be the end of restrictions.
It's pretty much eradicated in the country at the moment, what was it 17 county's with under 10 cases yesterday which may even be historical cases and a few countries with no cases.

HansKroenke wrote: »

The blind faith in the elusive flat curve/zero covid and clinging to the dogmatic view that lockdowns are necessary makes those supporting restrictions seem like they have more in common with anti-vaxxers and flat-Earthers. It even makes sense to call you "flat-curvers" and "anti-relaxxers".

nah its the flat earthers and anit vaxers are the problem i'm afraid


the reason they had entrance exams into secondary school


ask Tommy Tierney about that one

Monster249 wrote: »

Nothing's tough compared to growing up in Africa or being born deaf, blind and dumb.

That's a ridiculous outlook and doesn't work in western societies.

look i agree there are children starving in africa and it must have been hard on ya when your mammy wanted you to clear you plate


obviously still traumatized from that by the looks of it



There are plenty of people in western society that have it hard


just cause you have it plush doesn't mean no sun holiday this year is booh hoo hard for ya


you just need to suck it up, toughed up

This loon is now trying to use the flu to scare us.

https://www.independent.ie/news/tanaiste-positive-on-5km-limit-being-lifted-on-april-5-40181216.html

Mr Varadkar said problems next winter could not be ruled out as “not only could Covid come back next winter, we could also have the return of other respiratory illnesses.

The Tánaiste confirmed there was not one case of flu confirmed in Ireland this winter.

“That has never happened in my lifetime or recollection, but the flu hasn’t gone away. One of the concerns is that these respiratory illnesses return with a vengeance next winter and we have less immunity”.

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I know you're repeating, you're not really engaging with the question though.

I totally understand your assertion (it's so stripped of any nuance and simplified that it's really not a difficult assertion to understand). The only problem is that we don't have enough information to make that assertion, yet. The opposite to what you're doing would be to claim that there will definitely be lockdowns next winter. I'm not doing that we don't have enough information to make that claim either. What I am saying is that we don't have enough information to make the of either definite lockdown or definitely no restrictions.

The vaccines work really well. They don't work 100%, but nobody suggested they work 100%. What we do have is good evidence that the vaccine dramatically reduced transmissions, hospitalisations and deaths in lockdown conditions where interactions are severely limited. So the question is whether they work well enough, with about 65% of the population vaccinated, in winter, without restrictions. And the real question is whether MM and NPHET will consider the hospitalisation and death rate low enough to not reimpose any restrictions. Truth is we don't know yet.

You don’t need the vaccines to work 100%. However with all the data that’s available they work well enough to stop hospitalizations from being overwhelmed. That’s what matters.

Deleted User wrote: »

So mid May now with no promise of ending lockdown then either. That will be 8 months of lockdown with just 3 weeks of slightly less restrictions over Christmas and just 8 days of Inter county travel allowed thus far.

We have being one of the worst in the world at handling this if you consider the whole picture such as the economy, national debt, cancer screenings, mental health of the majority of the country and of course Covid.

Ultimately it was easier for our politicians to do nothing and let the people suffer and pay for the consequences.

I can’t wait for the day when they knock on my door looking for votes.

So they carry on with this farce... My next question is how quick can I get away for a holiday or two or three...

Micky 32 wrote: »

I’ll repeat. Critical mass vaccinated= Low hospitalization = little or no restrictions. Come winter feel free to hide under your bed. The end of this is coming. The vaccines work.

Micky I’m going to give explaining this to you one more shot and try to show you why I and most of the world’s health experts think you are wrong. Read it a couple of times if you need to.

Let’s imagine for a moment we have no vaccine. They haven’t been invented. Then let's imagine we have no restrictions. People can go to the pub, pack into music venues, pack the luas, etc, etc, etc, no masks, no social distancing. It’s like we’re back in 2019.

In December 2020 we had 3 weeks of no lockdown. We still had masks, we still had social distancing, we still had a lot of restrictions.

In those 3 weeks and with those restrictions still in place covid soared. It soared to the point where over a whopping 160 people per day were being admitted to hospital. Now remember that’s with masks, that’s with social distancing, that’s with limits in pubs and restaurants. That’s with no concerts or sports.

Now, imagine without ANY restrictions what that number would get to? Would it be twice as bad? 5 times? 10 times worse? 50 times worse maybe?? And when we don’t lockdown after 3 weeks what happens? What are the hospitalisations after 5 weeks, 8 weeks, 12 weeks??? How many are being hospitalised per day after 12 weeks of no vaccine and no restrictions? Is it 500 per day? 600? 900? I have no idea but I would say it’s well north of 750 per day when there’s no vaccine and no restrictions but for the purpose of my scenario let’s be really conservative and say it’s 500.

RE: The vaccine. 20-30% won’t be vacc’ed. For another 3-8% the vac won’t work. The BEST figure I’ve seen for vaccines reducing hospital numbers is 87% (which is bloody brilliant!!!). So with the 20-30% not getting it and the 87% reduction we’re looking at an overall hospital reduction of about 75% (incidentally, the exact same figure the UK have come up with in their roadmap).

So.... 500 hospitalisations per day, and remember that’s conservative, reduced by 75% is 125 people per day. In a little over two weeks 20% of our bed capacity would be gone to covid patients. I don’t know what the magic number is for us to have zero restrictions but still have hospitalisations. I’d imagine it’s under 20/day though.

Vaccines work and they work very well. But unless we can either vastly increase our bed capacity or come up with a more effective vaccine, restrictions are going to be in place for the foreseeable.

Now, I’m sure you are going to tell me I’m wrong but if you do, please explain where and why.